A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

I do think there will come a time Bloom pulls the trigger on a big prospect trade. I felt the same about Ben, but he was gone before he had a chance.

 

I think he'll do a prospect trade, but I think it'll be for prospects that he's ok with parting ways with. I believe he probably has a list of untouchable guys

[Bellhorn04]

I'm totally prepared for more of the same Bloom moves -- one step up, one step down, up, down, updown... treading basepaths until all Mookies, Xanders and Raffys have priced themselves out of Boston -- and all that remains is a roster full of minimum wage prospects and a few owner splashes like Story.

 

Mookie, Xander and Raffy are all ownership calls, arguably. Certainly if we're calling Story an "ownership splash", it has to work both ways.

[moonslav59]

I think he'll do a prospect trade, but I think it'll be for prospects that he's ok with parting ways with. I believe he probably has a list of untouchable guys

 

Agreed, but I do think, probably next winter, he trades a top 5-7 prospect or two top 10-12's.

 

It makes sense to keep Bello, Casas, mayer and Rafaela, since we have immediate needs at SS, CF, 1B and SP, but we do have some duplicate positional values and we can choose a position or two to fill via free agency or trade and then trade a prospect(s) fro that position.

 

I'm sure he has a rank of the prospects he wants to keep the most, and he probably will need to be dragged into trading one he really likes, but I think there will come a time, where he may need to part with someone he really likes.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Mookie, Xander and Raffy are all ownership calls, arguably. Certainly if we're calling Story an "ownership splash", it has to work both ways.

 

 

No argument here. We have no reason to suspect that Bloom hasn't always done exactly what Henry hired him to do.

 

The only part I'm still confused about is who decided a year ago it was a good idea to sign Story and offer Xander Bogaerts, the face of the franchise, less.

 

It's just hard to believe Henry and Warner were having tea one afternoon and decided, "Let's give Story a $23.33 AAV and then lowball homegrown fan favorite Bogey -- that two-time ringleader -- with a $22.5 AAV!"

 

It's almost just as hard to imagine Bloom and his boys sitting around a conference table, analyzing the merits of the same move: "Let's see: both the same age, but X has a higher career war, even though Trevor played half his games in Colorado... 4 Silver Sluggers for Bogey, 2 for Story... K percentage: 18% for Xander, 27.5% for Story -- that does it -- yes, let's insult Bogaerts!"

[mvp 78]

No argument here. We have no reason to suspect that Bloom hasn't always done exactly what Henry hired him to do.

 

The only part I'm still confused about is who decided a year ago it was a good idea to sign Story and offer Xander Bogaerts, the face of the franchise, less.

 

It's just hard to believe Henry and Warner were having tea one afternoon and decided, "Let's give Story a $23.33 AAV and then lowball homegrown fan favorite Bogey -- that two-time ringleader -- with a $22.5 AAV!"

 

It's almost just as hard to imagine Bloom and his boys sitting around a conference table, analyzing the merits of the same move: "Let's see: both the same age, but X has a higher career war, even though Trevor played half his games in Colorado... 4 Silver Sluggers for Bogey, 2 for Story... K percentage: 18% for Xander, 27.5% for Story -- that does it -- yes, let's insult Bogaerts!"

 

Maybe Henry is a nihilist and just wants the world to burn?

[moonslav59]

No argument here. We have no reason to suspect that Bloom hasn't always done exactly what Henry hired him to do.

 

The only part I'm still confused about is who decided a year ago it was a good idea to sign Story and offer Xander Bogaerts, the face of the franchise, less.

 

It's just hard to believe Henry and Warner were having tea one afternoon and decided, "Let's give Story a $23.33 AAV and then lowball homegrown fan favorite Bogey -- that two-time ringleader -- with a $22.5 AAV!"

 

It's almost just as hard to imagine Bloom and his boys sitting around a conference table, analyzing the merits of the same move: "Let's see: both the same age, but X has a higher career war, even though Trevor played half his games in Colorado... 4 Silver Sluggers for Bogey, 2 for Story... K percentage: 18% for Xander, 27.5% for Story -- that does it -- yes, let's insult Bogaerts!"

 

I'm not defending the low-ball offer, but one explanation is that maybe they felt Bogey signed the contract for $20M x3 after the opt out, and they viewed adding a $30M fourth year was not a low-ball. Story was a FA: Bogey was not, and that matters on contract offers.

 

I disagree, but to me, it was not an extremely absurd first offer, if they had followed up quickly with something slightly bigger than Story's contract. In my own opinion, I don't even think they planned on signing Story when they made that Bogey offer. I think Henry heard the rumblings of anxious fans (I called them "crybaby fans" earlier and that pissed off our resident crybaby fan) and saw the drop in season ticket applications and NESN subscriptions and told Bloom to sign Story. Just my opinion.

 

[Bellhorn04]

I disagree, but to me, it was not an extremely absurd first offer, if they had followed up quickly with something slightly bigger than Story's contract. In my own opinion, I don't even think they planned on signing Story when they made that Bogey offer. I think Henry heard the rumblings of anxious fans (I called them "crybaby fans" earlier and that pissed off our resident crybaby fan) and saw the drop in season ticket applications and NESN subscriptions and told Bloom to sign Story. Just my opinion.

 

That's not really an opinion, it's a guess. And it could be true. OTOH maybe Bloom was waiting it out to get the best price (like DD with JDM), and that's why the signing came so late in the day.

[moonslav59]

That's not really an opinion, it's a guess. And it could be true. OTOH maybe Bloom was waiting it out to get the best price (like DD with JDM), and that's why the signing came so late in the day.

 

I think that's what happened. I won't argue semantics, but a "guess" fits, too.

 

In that light, the "lowball" offer was made before knowing what the Story offer would be. It's one possible reason for the apparent disconnect.

 

It could also be true, they think Story was worth more than Bogey.

 

It's all a guess. (or opinion)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It could also be true, they think Story was worth more than Bogey.

 

It's all a guess. (or opinion)

 

Story's pretty fast. Maybe the boardroom Blooms had some insider info that baserunning would soon rule the new rules.

 

Trevor Story -- blurry face of Chaim Zoom's 2023 Running Red Sox.

[moonslav59]

Story's pretty fast. Maybe the boardroom Blooms had some insider info that baserunning would soon rule the new rules.

 

Trevor Story -- blurry face of Chaim Zoom's 2023 Running Red Sox.

 

He's also been a much better defender, and at key positions.

 

I would not be shocked to find out Sox management thinks Story is worth more than Bogey. I think it's pretty close. Bogey is a better hitter- Story is a better defender and runner. I thought a $150-160/6 year deal would be fair. I'm not sure I'd go above $162M/6 ($27M x 6), but I wouldn't be upset, if we go a little higher.

[notin]

He's also been a much better defender, and at key positions.

 

I would not be shocked to find out Sox management thinks Story is worth more than Bogey. I think it's pretty close. Bogey is a better hitter- Story is a better defender and runner. I thought a $150-160/6 year deal would be fair. I'm not sure I'd go above $162M/6 ($27M x 6), but I wouldn't be upset, if we go a little higher.

 

 

With the changes we’re seeing in the game, such as no shift, it would not surprise me if Bogaerts want their first choice at shortstop. Especially if he is still adamant about not changing positions (which he might not still be).

 

I always assumed Story was Plan B after Suzuki didn’t happen. That may or not not be the case, and we’ll probably never know…

[moonslav59]

With the changes we’re seeing in the game, such as no shift, it would not surprise me if Bogaerts want their first choice at shortstop. Especially if he is still adamant about not changing positions (which he might not still be).

 

I always assumed Story was Plan B after Suzuki didn’t happen. That may or not not be the case, and we’ll probably never know…

 

Certainly, Story might have always been on the burner, or even a sure bet signing once other signings did not materialize.

 

At the time, before I knew about the arm issues, I thought he was a lock to play SS, at least starting in 2023, but we also needed a 2Bman. It appeared to me, the plan was to not go over the tax line in 2022. That is one reason I think the late Story signing was kind of a knee jerk decision.

 

The puzzling part to me, was that we still could have gotten under the tax line with a little more creativeness by Bloom after the Story signing.

[notin]

Certainly, Story might have always been on the burner, or even a sure bet signing once other signings did not materialize.

 

At the time, before I knew about the arm issues, I thought he was a lock to play SS, at least starting in 2023, but we also needed a 2Bman. It appeared to me, the plan was to not go over the tax line in 2022. That is one reason I think the late Story signing was kind of a knee jerk decision.

 

The puzzling part to me, was that we still could have gotten under the tax line with a little more creativeness by Bloom after the Story signing.

 

 

Why would the Sox want to be under at the beginning of the season? Especially after making the LCS in 2021? The window was open then.

 

The big issue to me was not replacing Sale once his injury was known. Even if replacing him meant adding a reliever to backfill for Houck/Whitlock…

[moonslav59]

Why would the Sox want to be under at the beginning of the season? Especially after making the LCS in 2021? The window was open then.

 

The big issue to me was not replacing Sale once his injury was known. Even if replacing him meant adding a reliever to backfill for Houck/Whitlock…

 

I always thought they viewed 2024 and beyond as the better chance at a ring.

 

It looked that way all winter long, until the March Story signing.

[notin]

I always thought they viewed 2024 and beyond as the better chance at a ring.

 

It looked that way all winter long, until the March Story signing.

 

A bit misleading since December to mid-February was a league-wide transaction-free lockout…

[Bellhorn04]

Story wasn't really a flashy signing.

[moonslav59]

A bit misleading since December to mid-February was a league-wide transaction-free lockout…

 

No, it was what I thought from before 2021 even started. I thought they might go over the line in 2021 or 2022, but not both and likely neither.

 

JH usually does not spend big, until he thinks we are a key player or two away from a ring window.

 

My thoughts had nothing to do with transaction lock-outs.

[moonslav59]

Story wasn't really a flashy signing.

 

Close but not really large and not really long.

[moonslav59]

OF'er Masataka Yoshida was just posted.

 

Might the Sox kick some more tires?

[Bellhorn04]

No, it was what I thought from before 2021 even started. I thought they might go over the line in 2021 or 2022, but not both and likely neither.

 

JH usually does not spend big, until he thinks we are a key player or two away from a ring window.

 

He also spent big after finishing last in 2014.

[moonslav59]

He also spent big after finishing last in 2014.

 

It's not about last place finishing: it's about the status of the foundation and projected incoming and exciting farm help and younger players nearing prime.

 

I do not think the big rotation purge was planned. I think they felt 2015 might be the start of "the window."

 

In some ways, one could view 2023 or 2024 as being about the time to think a window is opening or about to open.

[moonslav59]

According to cots, the Sox biggest pluses and minus from their EOY budget to BOY budget are as follows:

 

in $Millions...

 

+/-

+25 '00>'01 (+4 in season)

-6 '01>'02 (+2)

-10 '02>'03 (+5)

+23 '03>04 (+3)

-7 '04>'05 (-7)

+4 '05>'06 (+17)

+6 '06>'07 (+12)

-22 '07>'08 (+13)

-26 '08>'09 (+19)

+28 '09>'10 (+1)

-7 '10>'11 (+10)

+1 '11>'12 (-7)

-14 '12>'13 (+22)

-20 '13>'14 (+12)

+16 '14>'15 (+1)

+12 '15>'16 (+3)

-3 '16>'17 (-8)

+44 '17>'18 (-3)

+6 '18>'19 (-8)

~-60 '19>'20 (-11)

-4 '20>'21 (+7)

-1 '21>'22

 

 

 

 

[Hugh2]

Story wasn't really a flashy signing.

 

I always thought the Story signing was underrated, of course in hindsight it's easy to still underrate it because he's played one season here and he was riddled with injury. He was comparable to Bogaerts.

 

Before 2022.

 

XB: .290/.353/.459 .812 OPS

TS: .272/.340/.523 .869 OPS

 

Story was thought to have an edge on defense, I think OBP is a little underrated in OPS so I'd say up until that point they were of equal value. From 2016-2021 Bogaerts sported a 23.8 Bwar while Story bested him with 26.9

 

It would really stink if Story because a year-in and year-out 250-350 PA guy and can never stay healthy, but if last season was the exception and he recovers, he's a premium player.

 

One of the biggest knocks on Story at the time of the signing was Coors field inflated his numbers, but him and Bogaerts had career OPS within .002 from each other playing AWAY.

[Hugh2]

OF'er Masataka Yoshida was just posted.

 

Might the Sox kick some more tires?

 

He strikes me as a platoon LF type of bat here. Not something I want to pursue with other holes in RF/SS/P/P/P/P/P/P/P

[moonslav59]

He strikes me as a platoon LF type of bat here. Not something I want to pursue with other holes in RF/SS/P/P/P/P/P/P/P

 

If all he can play is LF or DH, I'd pass, unless we trade Dugo and somehow acquire a RF'er, too.

 

Your point seems spot on.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

He strikes me as a platoon LF type of bat here. Not something I want to pursue with other holes in RF/SS/P/P/P/P/P/P/P

 

It's all about pitching. And if the Sox aren't going to add at least a dependable innings-eater for the rotation (to give relievers a breather), then they need to significantly upgrade the bullpen in quality and quantity.

 

Several good free agent relievers have already signed, and for numbers Bloom's past offseasons wouldn't approach. But it's time to get real -- if Boston really plans on being way better.

 

Fans can remind us the Sox were only two wins away from the '21 World Series, but the fact is that bullpen just wasn't championship quality. The Braves and Astros won the past two years with lights-out relievers. And that is indisputable.

 

So get some while they're still available.

[notin]

It's all about pitching. And if the Sox aren't going to add at least a dependable innings-eater for the rotation (to give relievers a breather), then they need to significantly upgrade the bullpen in quality and quantity.

 

Several good free agent relievers have already signed, and for numbers Bloom's past offseasons wouldn't approach. But it's time to get real -- if Boston really plans on being way better.

 

Fans can remind us the Sox were only two wins away from the '21 World Series, but the fact is that bullpen just wasn't championship quality. The Braves and Astros won the past two years with lights-out relievers. And that is indisputable.

 

So get some while they're still available.

 

If you look at the 2021 Red Sox and the 2022 Phillies, what do these teams tell you about the importance of a bullpen?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If you look at the 2021 Red Sox and the 2022 Phillies, what do these teams tell you about the importance of a bullpen?

 

Tampa rejects Alvarados before it's too late...

 

... and here's to you, David Robertson.

 

Though a Brad in Hand is always better than a Hansel or Diekman.

 

But not even Kyle Schwarber can beat the Astros... in any round.

[notin]

Tampa rejects Alvarados before it's too late...

 

... and here's to you, David Robertson.

 

Though a Brad in Hand is always better than a Hansel or Diekman.

 

But not even Kyle Schwarber can beat the Astros... in any round.

 

Yes I can name those pitchers, too.

 

So are you arguing that the Phillies bullpen, 23rd in MLB in ERA last year was good? Right after saying the 2021 Red Sox Diekman-free bullpen, which was 13th in ERA, was bad?

[mvp 78]

It's all about pitching.

 

Pitching is of utmost importance, but they cannot go into next season without any offensive additions.