A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

If you look at the 2021 Red Sox and the 2022 Phillies, what do these teams tell you about the importance of a bullpen?

 

I think a Houck/Whitlock/Schreiber/Barnes bullpen is better than what the Phillies put out there.

 

Again, building an adequate bullpen was Desperate Dave's Achilles Heel.

[moonslav59]

I always thought the Story signing was underrated, of course in hindsight it's easy to still underrate it because he's played one season here and he was riddled with injury. He was comparable to Bogaerts.

 

Before 2022.

 

XB: .290/.353/.459 .812 OPS

TS: .272/.340/.523 .869 OPS

 

Story was thought to have an edge on defense, I think OBP is a little underrated in OPS so I'd say up until that point they were of equal value. From 2016-2021 Bogaerts sported a 23.8 Bwar while Story bested him with 26.9

 

It would really stink if Story because a year-in and year-out 250-350 PA guy and can never stay healthy, but if last season was the exception and he recovers, he's a premium player.

 

One of the biggest knocks on Story at the time of the signing was Coors field inflated his numbers, but him and Bogaerts had career OPS within .002 from each other playing AWAY.

 

It seams like he was a "big splash" signing at non big splash contractual obligations. Not the $140M/6 is peanuts, but people are talking Bogey at $170M/6 or $190M/7, and even more by a few.

 

I still like the signing, even though, at the time, I thought we signed him to play SS.

[mvp 78]

Ward is not a SP'er anymore?

 

Reports are that Ward's "stuff" was down in the AFL. He got injured again down there and wasn't throwing his whole arsenal, just a FB/slider combo with reduced velo. Maybe the Sox have concerns about his medicals?

 

I still would have held onto Ward instead of Hamilton and there's a high likelihood Ward is selected, but not Wikelman. We'll see if this move blows up in Bloom's face. If Ward becomes the next Whitlock pick, he'd really need to make up for it with his other offseason moves.

[mvp 78]

It seams like he was a "big splash" signing at non big splash contractual obligations. Not the $140M/6 is peanuts, but people are talking Bogey at $170M/6 or $190M/7, and even more by a few.

 

I still like the signing, even though, at the time, I thought we signed him to play SS.

 

Was it a big splash or did they think they were getting a little discount on Story as it was towards the end of the signing period and he was still unsigned?

[moonslav59]

Was it a big splash or did they think they were getting a little discount on Story as it was towards the end of the signing period and he was still unsigned?

 

Not sure. I'd like to hear, if he was strongly on their radar from day one, or not.

 

I was kind of surprised we had not spent up to the tax line as we neared the end of the major player signing period, so maybe he was always going to be signed, and they were waiting out other team's choices.

 

Maybe another team was in on Story, and he waited to sign, until after that team refused to up their offer or chose another option and took their offer away.

 

I'm still optimistic Story will turn into a positive value contractual signing.

[moonslav59]

Reports are that Ward's "stuff" was down in the AFL. He got injured again down there and wasn't throwing his whole arsenal, just a FB/slider combo with reduced velo. Maybe the Sox have concerns about his medicals?

 

I still would have held onto Ward instead of Hamilton and there's a high likelihood Ward is selected, but not Wikelman. We'll see if this move blows up in Bloom's face. If Ward becomes the next Whitlock pick, he'd really need to make up for it with his other offseason moves.

 

If his medicals are highly questionable, I doubt anyone takes Ward.

 

I don't think Wikelman is that far from being ML ready, especially on a 60 win team. I think he will be selected. Paulino may be too far away and might not even get to play on a 60 win team, but some team might choose to stunt his growth by parking him on the ML bench for a year, in hopes of hitting the jackpot years from now. There may be several players ranked ahead of Paulino from other teams, so maybe he is safe. Wallace could probably pitch in the bigs, next season. He may be selected.

 

It's kind of a badge of honor for Bloom to have that much farm depth that we are talking 2-3 players who may be selected by other teams. I could also be a badge of disgrace, if one gets selected, does very well, while we hung onto Ort, DHern, Chang and Cordero.

 

The equation goes deeper than that, however, as those 3 may be gone to make room for FA signings, so it might really have come down to Wikelman, Wallace and Ward vs R Hernandez, Hosmer, Downs or Duran. Those choices are tougher.

[mvp 78]

If his medicals are highly questionable, I doubt anyone takes Ward.

 

It's the Rule 5 draft. There is such a little risk in taking someone, you may as well grab him and see how it goes in Spring Training. You either flip him to another team or just send him back to BOS.

[mvp 78]

I don't think Wikelman is that far from being ML ready, especially on a 60 win team. I think he will be selected. Paulino may be too far away and might not even get to play on a 60 win team, but some team might choose to stunt his growth by parking him on the ML bench for a year, in hopes of hitting the jackpot years from now. There may be several players ranked ahead of Paulino from other teams, so maybe he is safe. Wallace could probably pitch in the bigs, next season. He may be selected.

 

The Sox have carried guys like Groome on the 40 man who had no shot of helping BOS that season. I'm kind of surprised they didn't select Wikelman unless they think he's trending away from being a starter, aren't convinced in his late season turnaround or just think it's going to take him too long to reach BOS.

 

Wallace COULD make the bigs, but his ceiling is middle relief. You can't really protect every guy who profiles as a middle reliever. If that were the case, you wouldn't have enough room for incoming FA's.

 

I'd be surprised if more than 2 Sox get selected. It's much more likely that only one guy is selected. If anything, Ward and Wikelman are selected and one gets returned in season.

 

Sox could also select old friend Aldo Ramirez who the Cubs left off their 40 man roster.

[moonslav59]

It's the Rule 5 draft. There is such a little risk in taking someone, you may as well grab him and see how it goes in Spring Training. You either flip him to another team or just send him back to BOS.

 

True, but there may be so many better choices out there than an injured Ward.

[moonslav59]

The Sox have carried guys like Groome on the 40 man who had no shot of helping BOS that season. I'm kind of surprised they didn't select Wikelman unless they think he's trending away from being a starter, aren't convinced in his late season turnaround or just think it's going to take him too long to reach BOS.

 

Wallace COULD make the bigs, but his ceiling is middle relief. You can't really protect every guy who profiles as a middle reliever. If that were the case, you wouldn't have enough room for incoming FA's.

 

I'd be surprised if more than 2 Sox get selected. It's much more likely that only one guy is selected. If anything, Ward and Wikelman are selected and one gets returned in season.

 

Sox could also select old friend Aldo Ramirez who the Cubs left off their 40 man roster.

 

Agreed. I think other teams likely have better talent to select than the ones we know more about- our own.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yes I can name those pitchers, too.

 

So are you arguing that the Phillies bullpen, 23rd in MLB in ERA last year was good? Right after saying the 2021 Red Sox Diekman-free bullpen, which was 13th in ERA, was bad?

 

Nope. You and I and everybody that watched knows the bullpens of the '21 Sox and '22 Phillies weren't good enough to win a ring.

 

Stats can show that Barnes was great in the first half or Robles had a few good weeks, but Boston relievers in the postseason were so untrustworthy that Cora chose to use Pivetta and ultimately Eovaldi out of the pen in the most crucial moments. Yes, he also used his starters in relief to win in '18, but part of that was because Kimbrel almost killed half of a Red Sox Nation television audience (Kelly was great, though).

[mvp 78]

Nope. You and I and everybody that watched knows the bullpens of the '21 Sox and '22 Phillies weren't good enough to win a ring.

 

Did the Phillies lose because of blown leads due to their bullpen? Maybe you could blame one loss on their pen, but hard to blame the Phillies pitching if the offense could only score 1 run that game. Combining the 4 Phillies losses in the World Series, they scored only 5 runs. Hard to blame the pen if the offense is averaging 1.25 runs each loss.

[moonslav59]

Nope. You and I and everybody that watched knows the bullpens of the '21 Sox and '22 Phillies weren't good enough to win a ring.

 

Stats can show that Barnes was great in the first half or Robles had a few good weeks, but Boston relievers in the postseason were so untrustworthy that Cora chose to use Pivetta and ultimately Eovaldi out of the pen in the most crucial moments. Yes, he also used his starters in relief to win in '18, but part of that was because Kimbrel almost killed half of a Red Sox Nation television audience (Kelly was great, though).

 

Kinda the same thing we did in 2018- using starters in key relief appearances.

[Bellhorn04]

I think a Houck/Whitlock/Schreiber/Barnes bullpen is better than what the Phillies put out there.

 

Again, building an adequate bullpen was Desperate Dave's Achilles Heel.

 

What's interesting is that the postseason 2018 Red Sox had a pen that was a bit shaky, mainly because Kimbrel was way off his game.

 

They relied largely on Brasier. Barnes and Kelly, and Cora plugging in his starters for an inning here and there.

 

All of which allowed Kimbrel to hang onto games by his fingernails.

[Bellhorn04]

Did the Phillies lose because of blown leads due to their bullpen? Maybe you could blame one loss on their pen, but hard to blame the Phillies pitching if the offense could only score 1 run that game. Combining the 4 Phillies losses in the World Series, they scored only 5 runs. Hard to blame the pen if the offense is averaging 1.25 runs each loss.

 

The Astros won because they had great pitching start to finish in Games 4-6. So exactly the way they beat us in 2021.

[moonslav59]

The Astros won because they had great pitching start to finish in Games 4-6. So exactly the way they beat us in 2021.

 

They also greatly improved their pen from 2-6 years ago, but yes, they have very tough starters and are 6-7 deep.

[mvp 78]

What's interesting is that the postseason 2018 Red Sox had a pen that was a bit shaky, mainly because Kimbrel was way off his game.

 

They relied largely on Brasier. Barnes and Kelly, and Cora plugging in his starters for an inning here and there.

 

All of which allowed Kimbrel to hang onto games by his fingernails.

 

They were 13th in fWAR in 2018. Not exactly an amazing bullpen.

[notin]

What's interesting is that the postseason 2018 Red Sox had a pen that was a bit shaky, mainly because Kimbrel was way off his game.

 

They relied largely on Brasier. Barnes and Kelly, and Cora plugging in his starters for an inning here and there.

 

All of which allowed Kimbrel to hang onto games by his fingernails.

 

 

And allowed Kimbrel to be credited with a save in a game that was clearly saved by Benintendi….

[mvp 78]

And allowed Kimbrel to be credited with a save in a game that was clearly saved by Benintendi….

 

I've seen better catches in the Little League World Series.

[Bellhorn04]

I've seen better catches in the Little League World Series.

 

The timing of Beni's was pretty good though.

[notin]

The timing of Beni's was pretty good though.

 

But it was only in the LCS. He’s talking about the Little League World Series…

[moonslav59]

I've seen better catches in the Little League World Series.

 

Nope.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Astros won because they had great pitching start to finish in Games 4-6. So exactly the way they beat us in 2021.

 

It was a carbon-dated copy of the '21 ALCS.

 

The Phillies never challenged any pitchers in the final three games. But the Astros' bullpen made sure of it, since Houston's offense only averaged 3 runs per game in those Ws.

 

The point of this offseason for Boston is to acquire legitimate pitching that fans don't have to hope won't break down by June or worse, have to hope that maybe they'll be ready to contribute by July.

 

And since the big money will go to the star starters, a better route for a Sox' return to contending -- for a wild card -- may be to invest, instead, in the bullpen.

[notin]

It was a carbon-dated copy of the '21 ALCS.

 

The Phillies never challenged any pitchers in the final three games. But the Astros' bullpen made sure of it, since Houston's offense only averaged 3 runs per game in those Ws.

 

The point of this offseason for Boston is to acquire legitimate pitching that fans don't have to hope won't break down by June or worse, have to hope that maybe they'll be ready to contribute by July.

 

And since the big money will go to the star starters, a better route for a Sox' return to contending -- for a wild card -- may be to invest, instead, in the bullpen.

 

The free agent class difference-makers this year are either old or oft-injured or both. (Not including Sengai, of whom I know nothing.) But the bullpen options are largely uninspiring, so much so I think Chris “The Journeyman” Martin ranks among the top 3 options available.

 

I’d still try to get one of Jansen, Martin and Fulmer. But that doesn’t lock up this bullpen…

Edited November 17, 2022 by notin

[moonslav59]

It was a carbon-dated copy of the '21 ALCS.

 

The Phillies never challenged any pitchers in the final three games. But the Astros' bullpen made sure of it, since Houston's offense only averaged 3 runs per game in those Ws.

 

The point of this offseason for Boston is to acquire legitimate pitching that fans don't have to hope won't break down by June or worse, have to hope that maybe they'll be ready to contribute by July.

 

And since the big money will go to the star starters, a better route for a Sox' return to contending -- for a wild card -- may be to invest, instead, in the bullpen.

 

Trade for a SP'er and sign FA RP'ers is the best plan.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Trade for a SP'er and sign FA RP'ers is the best plan.

 

Agreed. The first part of the plan might take the longest, while teams assess budgets and needs.

 

The second half is on the clock, since there are only so many Rogers, Chafins and Fulmers left out there...

[notin]

Agreed. The first part of the plan might take the longest, while teams assess budgets and needs.

 

The second half is on the clock, since there are only so many Rogers, Chafins and Fulmers left out there...

 

And one Yarborough, who would surprise no one by coming to Boston…

[mvp 78]

But it was only in the LCS. He’s talking about the Little League World Series…

 

For ALL the marbles... and maybe some pogs too.

[mvp 78]

Nope.

 

 

[moonslav59]

 

 

Nope & Nope.

 

He doesn't even get to #1.

 

#2 was grandma worthy.