A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[mvp 78]

Everything you do is over analyzing. You have no clue what the budget will be, or anything else, and probably all the moves that Bloom makes will not come anything close to moves that you would make. The Red Sox have a good SS if they want to pay him, but they don’t have a good closer.

 

Yeah, that's why we're here...

[moonslav59]

@mlbtraderumors

Rangers Considering Qualifying Offer For Martin Perez

 

I was talking about the Perez signing before 2022. (Low risk- High reward)

[Bellhorn04]

I was talking about the Perez signing before 2022. (Low risk- High reward)

 

After 2021, Perez wasn't really a low risk to fail.

 

The point of confusion is equating low cost with low risk.

[mvp 78]

I was talking about the Perez signing before 2022. (Low risk- High reward)

 

No. That wasn't a low risk high reward signing. Just because a guy has a big season out of nowhere doesn't make it a low risk high reward signing.

 

If things went well for Perez, most people assumed a 2 fWAR season. Nobody assumed a potential 4 fWAR season.

 

At most, he was moderate risk moderate reward (risk being injury, wasted rotation spot due to ineffectiveness, contract above minimum etc.).

 

For example, if Judge signs a monster deal some where, it's going to be high risk high reward. If things go well, he'll hit close to 2022, but not necessarily match it.

 

If Franchy Cordero is DFA'd and claimed by the Marlins, the definition of him doing well would be everyday OFer. That would be low risk low reward. If he outperformed that level and has a near All Star season it doesn't make it a low risk high reward move. More often than not, these low risk low reward moves don't move the needle because the moves don't generate high returns, which is why they are all lumped together as low risk low reward. You can't just resort them after the fact.

[Old Red]

Again, I know we have plenty of money to fill all 4-5 high need slots.

 

I was responding to someone who said the pen was the top priority. I stated why I felt other slots were actually higher need areas based on who we had there, now.

 

How is that overanalyzing?

 

To me, your response to my simple post was overanalyzing.

 

Of course, we will address all 4-5 slots, or we better.

 

My point was about which was weakest or weaker. It wasn't some deep dive analytical point made. I simply listed our current players at each slot and the eye test says the pen is not the weakest, right now. I'm not sure why that set you off.

Didn’t you tell me to stop over analyzing first? Nobody has to tell anybody to stop over analyzing, but you can never resist. Everyone has a opinion on everything, and yes even different opinions like some of us think the BP is the #1 priority.

[Old Red]

Yeah, that's why we're here...

 

That was my understanding, but I was just returning a comment that didn’t need to be said in the first place.

[Hugh2]

Yes, everyone has a right to an opinion, all opinions matter.

 

I think the only issue with this team is we need a better base running coach. That's it, and no one here can tell me otherwise.

[dgalehouse]

..Have some of us dummies fallen under the influence of " talk show clowns ? "

[moonslav59]

After 2021, Perez wasn't really a low risk to fail.

 

The point of confusion is equating low cost with low risk.

 

Yes, he was a "low risk." That was my point, since his 2020 (1.1 bWAR) and 2021 (0.5 bWAR) were not really failure seasons.

 

He did have a higher reward possibility than others getting $4M, and in hindsight- he was a high reward.

 

I do think the "risk" is tied to how much money you are "risking." We gambled on Paxton. It wasn't a real low risk, since we paid him more than Perez and the risk was greater for a complete zero in the reward column.

 

He was a high(er) risk- maybe high reward type signing, IMO.

[moonslav59]

No. That wasn't a low risk high reward signing. Just because a guy has a big season out of nowhere doesn't make it a low risk high reward signing.

 

If things went well for Perez, most people assumed a 2 fWAR season. Nobody assumed a potential 4 fWAR season.

 

At most, he was moderate risk moderate reward (risk being injury, wasted rotation spot due to ineffectiveness, contract above minimum etc.).

 

For example, if Judge signs a monster deal some where, it's going to be high risk high reward. If things go well, he'll hit close to 2022, but not necessarily match it.

 

If Franchy Cordero is DFA'd and claimed by the Marlins, the definition of him doing well would be everyday OFer. That would be low risk low reward. If he outperformed that level and has a near All Star season it doesn't make it a low risk high reward move. More often than not, these low risk low reward moves don't move the needle because the moves don't generate high returns, which is why they are all lumped together as low risk low reward. You can't just resort them after the fact.

 

$4M or less is not a big gamble, hence it's low risk almost by definition, but maybe we are just arguing semantics.

 

Perez has been a pretty consistent innings eater- another reason he was a lower risk than someone like Paxton. He also had plus bWARs in 2020 and 2021, so the risk of a 0.0 or negative WAR was not high- another reason to say "low risk."

[moonslav59]

..Have some of us dummies fallen under the influence of " talk show clowns ? "

 

OH! No you DIH-ENT!

[Old Red]

True, and many might be okay, if he said the same about Houck, as long as he beefed up the set-up men, especially if Whitlock is not in the pen.

 

Nobody would be fine with Bloom saying...

 

"Downs will be our starting SS."

 

"Refsnyder and Duran will platoon at corner OF."

 

"Winckowski will be our 5th SP'er."

 

On the other hand we could have Bogey at SS.

 

Judge in RF

 

DeGroom as our #1 SP.

[notin]

Barnes is going to be good in 2023. Brasier will be gone. Taylor will be gone as well.

 

I hope you’re right about Barnes and Brasier but wrong about Taylor…

[moonslav59]

On the other hand we could have Bogey at SS.

 

Judge in RF

 

DeGroom as our #1 SP.

 

Not likely, but they would fit in the $100M AAV budget scenario. That would then bolt the pen to the highest need area in a second.

[moonslav59]

I hope you’re right about Barnes and Brasier but wrong about Taylor…

 

Depends on his health.

[Old Red]

Not likely, but they would fit in the $100M AAV budget scenario. That would then bolt the pen to the highest need area in a second.

 

Who said there was a budget scenario? Bloom? Kennedy? JH?

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, he was a "low risk." That was my point, since his 2020 (1.1 bWAR) and 2021 (0.5 bWAR) were not really failure seasons.

 

Yes, that's fair.

[Bellhorn04]

Who said there was a budget scenario? Bloom? Kennedy? JH?

 

The scenario is that there's about $100 mill to spend before hitting the tax line.

[Old Red]

The scenario is that there's about $100 mill to spend before hitting the tax line.

 

That was known, but who said the Red Sox were not going over the tax line?

[moonslav59]

Who said there was a budget scenario? Bloom? Kennedy? JH?

 

Not me, either.

 

Like you said, "who knows?"

 

That's why it's called a "scenario." (One of many)

[moonslav59]

The scenario is that there's about $100 mill to spend before hitting the tax line.

 

He doesn't know what "scenario" means.

[mvp 78]

..Have some of us dummies fallen under the influence of " talk show clowns ? "

 

Honk honk

[mvp 78]

I hope you’re right about Barnes and Brasier but wrong about Taylor…

 

With Taylor, I just don't know what to think about him coming back from the IL. Maybe he's just stuck on the 60 Day all year again?

[Old Red]

Not me, either.

 

Like you said, "who knows?"

 

That's why it's called a "scenario." (One of many)

I know what scenario means, but you don’t go many post without talking about tax, budget, or resetting. I don’t analyze the budget stuff. Bloom has plenty of helpers on here who do that.

[Hugh2]

That was known, but who said the Red Sox were not going over the tax line?

 

Who? Years of precedent between this team and every other team avoiding the penalties, countless interviews from front office personal over the years. And expert analysis and expert analysis.

 

Maybe you don’t care, it ain’t your problem, Bloom “has guys” to look over that for him. But this is a realistic discussion, and realistically they are probably resetting this year.

[Hugh2]

Even if they didn’t reset this year, it would be 99.99% likely they’d reset next. Which means this years budget pours over into next. It matters, and it’s 100% relevant to the conversation making it important if we want to talk about what this off-season should look like.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Depends on his health.

 

Why does this quote always seem to sum up the entire pitching staff?

 

Here's the thing about upgrading the bullpen: the Red Sox need to acquire at least two relievers who were legitimately good in 2022 -- not guys who were once good closers and are now bad to mediocre; not guys who are coming off injuries or operations; and not guys -- please -- who were never good, but someone in some office analyzing some graph has data to show they might be good... someday.

 

The new Red Sox relievers don't necessarily have to be called "closers," since those are the most expensive of relievers. But having a lockdown set-up man or two at the back end, in the 7th and 8th innings; would've made the difference in four or five more wins last season -- and at least a winning record.

 

This is a last place team we're discussing. Boston needs to get back to respectability before it can actually get serious.

[Old Red]

Who? Years of precedent between this team and every other team avoiding the penalties, countless interviews from front office personal over the years. And expert analysis and expert analysis.

 

Maybe you don’t care, it ain’t your problem, Bloom “has guys” to look over that for him. But this is a realistic discussion, and realistically they are probably resetting this year.

I get all that, but this is a whole new year, and the team is coming off a losing record, and a last place Div finish for the 2nd time in the last three years. Time for a new precedent, which JH can afford. NO I don’t care if JH has to pay a tax, or not, and I think most feel the same way. If you, and others do care that’s fine too.

[moonslav59]

I know what scenario means, but you don’t go many post without talking about tax, budget, or resetting. I don’t analyze the budget stuff. Bloom has plenty of helpers on here who do that.

 

Are you thinking a reset is not a possible scenario?

 

I've said a few times, we may not reset in 2023, but I think we will in '23 or '24, but that is just my opinion.

 

In one scenario, we might have an upper limit of about $100M AAV to spend, this winter. I never claimed it was set in stone or stated by anyone in Sox management as a goal.

 

You are just overanalyzing my statement. It appeared you did not know what scenario meant by your reaction to my scenario given.

[Bellhorn04]

I get all that, but this is a whole new year, and the team is coming off a losing record, and a last place Div finish for the 2nd time in the last three years. Time for a new precedent, which JH can afford. NO I don’t care if JH has to pay a tax, or not, and I think most feel the same way. If you, and others do care that’s fine too.

 

We don't care about him paying the tax.