A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

I get all that, but this is a whole new year, and the team is coming off a losing record, and a last place Div finish for the 2nd time in the last three years. Time for a new precedent, which JH can afford. NO I don’t care if JH has to pay a tax, or not, and I think most feel the same way. If you, and others do care that’s fine too.

 

Just because you and many others don't care, doesn't mean it's not something that is real and important to our up-coming winter plans, and/or next winter's, too.

 

If reading ab out lux tax budgets and plans bothers you, just skip over them.

 

To me, when I look at all the holes we need filling, I'm thinking $120-140M would be a good amount to spend to make us a top contender. I don't think that will be Bloom's given winter spending budget, so I go on an assumption I fully know could be wrong, but until I see otherwise, I'm starting out with the idea we will spend up to $100M, this winter with an outside chance we might go to $120M and reset, the next winter.

 

That guides my ideas on where the spending is mostly needed, because we likely will not spend big on 7-8 slots. I don't think my position is "extreme" or absurd, and if it bothers you that many of my posts have this in mind, then maybe you can just put me on ignore, because I'm going to continue like this, all winter long.

 

If some big wig says we are not going to reset in 2023, then I'm assuming the $120M mark is the new line.

[moonslav59]

We don't care about him paying the tax.

 

I don't either, but I do care about the penalties that go with going over the tax line by too much or by too many consecutive seasons. Even this is not a big deal, if we can win a few more rings, along the way, despite the penalties.

[Bellhorn04]

I don't either, but I do care about the penalties that go with going over the tax line by too much or by too many consecutive seasons. Even this is not a big deal, if we can win a few more rings, along the way, despite the penalties.

 

What I mean is, we don't care about Henry's wallet. That's not what this is about. Apparently it's a point that has to be made over and over.

[moonslav59]

What I mean is, we don't care about Henry's wallet. That's not what this is about. Apparently it's a point that has to be made over and over.

 

Agreed.

 

I was just trying to add why the tax line is brought up, so often, and not only by me. It goes beyond just JH's willingness to spend more (or not.)

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed.

 

I was just trying to add why the tax line is brought up, so often, and not only by me. It goes beyond just JH's willingness to spend more (or not.)

 

The loss of IFA money is probably the most damaging of all the penalties.

[moonslav59]

The loss of IFA money is probably the most damaging of all the penalties.

 

Indeed.

 

The dropping down a few picks hurts, but I don't think it's as big a deal as that IFA money.

[notin]

What I mean is, we don't care about Henry's wallet. That's not what this is about. Apparently it's a point that has to be made over and over.

 

None of us care about Henry’s wallet. Some of us acknowledge that he isn’t going to spend without limits.

 

And apparently some still think rich people are going to pay more money happily in order to make sure complete strangers are entertained…

[moonslav59]

None of us care about Henry’s wallet. Some of us acknowledge that he isn’t going to spend without limits.

 

And apparently some still think rich people are going to pay more money happily in order to make sure complete strangers are entertained…

 

Not only that they will, but that they "should."

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A's are ready to deal Sean Murphy, a #1 catcher that can spearhead a rebuild.

 

BTV accepts a trade of Yorke, Houck and Schrieber... but instead of the latter (a reliever coming off his first good year who will be 29 at the start of 2023), maybe the A's would instead prefer Walter -- the Sox' #2 pitching prospect.

 

A new team will acquire Murphy this winter.

[moonslav59]

A's are ready to deal Sean Murphy, a #1 catcher that can spearhead a rebuild.

 

BTV accepts a trade of Yorke, Houck and Schrieber... but instead of the latter (a reliever coming off his first good year who will be 29 at the start of 2023), maybe the A's would instead prefer Walter -- the Sox' #2 pitching prospect.

 

A new team will acquire Murphy this winter.

 

I think the A's will want high upside prospects, even if farther away from the bigs than most teams might ask for.

 

Rafaela or Bleis plus maybe Yorke and one from Walter, Mata or Wikelman.

 

I don't see catcher as the slot we choose to make our first big prospect tarde for, but who knows? McGuire, Wong and RHern are not anything to write home about. Hickey is too far away.

[Hugh2]

I get the "it ain't my money" argument. It just perplexes me that people think it's a rational argument. It's freaking stupid for two reasons.

 

1. It might not be "our" money, but it is someone else's money. Imagine you worked for a company, and you were upset with them for not spending so much money on amenities, to the point they would be in the red. Everyone would hate you and be like "dude, just effing quit and go somewhere else". It's juvenile, It's like a kid teenager being upset that mommy and daddy can't buy him all the toys in the world because he has no concept of budgeting money.

2. Whether or not we like it, it's reality. People budget. Poor people, rich people, and all good businessmen alike. Do people think that Rich men who own businesses just have all their money in some pile like Uncle Scrooge and go swimming in it? and have no concept of balancing a budget? no that's moronic. The Sox have a budget, and every move you make affects the rest of the roster.

 

In regards to the latter, I would understand the strife amongst fans if the Sox were frugal with their money like the Oakland A's. But that's not a reality, they're top 5 in spending every year for the past 2 1/2 decades. They've had last-place finishes and turned it around before and they will never stink long term at the rate they spend.

 

There's nothing more in this world than I would like for the Sox to have a bottomless wallet. Lets go out and sign Judge, resign Bogaerts, sign Degrome, and sign a bunch of other guys. But that's not realistic, this is a REALISTIC view of 2023.

 

Do we realize what REALISTIC means? Imagine I was a 280 lb obese man (and I used to be before I lost 100 lbs). Imagine hiring a personal trainer. Is that guy going to sell me pie in the sky and tell me I'm going to be a buff man in a year? no, he'd be lying to me. Realistically, I had to work hard at it every day in the gym and with my diet for over 3 years to reach my goal. That was reality, we live in a country were obesity runs rampant and fake diet pills is a billion-dollar industry because people don't live in reality.

 

I like the concept of realistically talking about what the Sox can or can not do, or likely will do. Anything more than that is like talking about what I would do if I won the lottery, yeah it's fun to dream but serves no purpose in reality when planning to take care of my family. I like to stay true to the meaning of this thread and have it based on reality.

 

And look, to each their own, even in "reality" opinions can vary widely. But every time I hear the "well it ain't my money" argument I'm going to chuckle and not take someone seriously, because you're not being serious. Ya'll can do you.

[Bellhorn04]

I get the "it ain't my money" argument. It just perplexes me that people think it's a rational argument. It's freaking stupid for two reasons.

 

1. It might not be "our" money, but it is someone else's money. Imagine you worked for a company, and you were upset with them for not spending so much money on amenities, to the point they would be in the red. Everyone would hate you and be like "dude, just effing quit and go somewhere else". It's juvenile, It's like a kid teenager being upset that mommy and daddy can't buy him all the toys in the world because he has no concept of budgeting money.

2. Whether or not we like it, it's reality. People budget. Poor people, rich people, and all good businessmen alike. Do people think that Rich men who own businesses just have all their money in some pile like Uncle Scrooge and go swimming in it? and have no concept of balancing a budget? no that's moronic. The Sox have a budget, and every move you make affects the rest of the roster.

 

In regards to the latter, I would understand the strife amongst fans if the Sox were frugal with their money like the Oakland A's. But that's not a reality, they're top 5 in spending every year for the past 2 1/2 decades. They've had last-place finishes and turned it around before and they will never stink long term at the rate they spend.

 

There's nothing more in this world than I would like for the Sox to have a bottomless wallet. Lets go out and sign Judge, resign Bogaerts, sign Degrome, and sign a bunch of other guys. But that's not realistic, this is a REALISTIC view of 2023.

 

Do we realize what REALISTIC means? Imagine I was a 280 lb obese man (and I used to be before I lost 100 lbs). Imagine hiring a personal trainer. Is that guy going to sell me pie in the sky and tell me I'm going to be a buff man in a year? no, he'd be lying to me. Realistically, I had to work hard at it every day in the gym and with my diet for over 3 years to reach my goal. That was reality, we live in a country were obesity runs rampant and fake diet pills is a billion-dollar industry because people don't live in reality.

 

I like the concept of realistically talking about what the Sox can or can not do, or likely will do. Anything more than that is like talking about what I would do if I won the lottery, yeah it's fun to dream but serves no purpose in reality when planning to take care of my family. I like to stay true to the meaning of this thread and have it based on reality.

 

And look, to each their own, even in "reality" opinions can vary widely. But every time I hear the "well it ain't my money" argument I'm going to chuckle and not take someone seriously, because you're not being serious. Ya'll can do you.

 

Awesome post Hugh.

[Hugh2]

The loss of IFA money is probably the most damaging of all the penalties.

 

After 3 years the loss of revenue-sharing rebates equates to over a hundred million dollars a year. I think that's by far and wide the largest deterrent for staying over the line long term.

[Hugh2]

Just for the record. I don't think this makes others wrong and me right. You won't hear me say this very often many other times but I have a lot of stupid ideals.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think the A's will want high upside prospects, even if farther away from the bigs than most teams might ask for.

 

Rafaela or Bleis plus maybe Yorke and one from Walter, Mata or Wikelman.

 

I don't see catcher as the slot we choose to make our first big prospect tarde for, but who knows? McGuire, Wong and RHern are not anything to write home about. Hickey is too far away.

 

I'm not prepared (and seriously doubt Bloom is, either) to deal either Rafaela or Bleis period -- not to mention in addition to Yorke and a pitching prospect; especially not for one position player.

 

The only way I'm emptying the farm -- and besides Mayer, all those guys are the best in the system -- is for Alcantara or another ace starter in his mid-20s.

 

And when's another time BTV is this relevant? Are Gonzalez and Duran really an overpay to the Marlins for Pablo Lopez and Garcia's contract?

[Hugh2]

I'm not prepared (and seriously doubt Bloom is, either) to deal either Rafaela or Bleis period -- not to mention in addition to Yorke and a pitching prospect; especially not for one position player.

 

The only way I'm emptying the farm -- and besides Mayer, all those guys are the best in the system -- is for Alcantara or another ace starter in his mid-20s.

 

And when's another time BTV is this relevant? Are Gonzalez and Duran really an overpay to the Marlins for Pablo Lopez and Garcia's contract?

 

That would be a steal for Lopez even if Garcia rode the DL all year. If Garcia bounces back it's a heist. BTV is great, but very imperfect.

[Old Red]

I get the "it ain't my money" argument. It just perplexes me that people think it's a rational argument. It's freaking stupid for two reasons.

 

1. It might not be "our" money, but it is someone else's money. Imagine you worked for a company, and you were upset with them for not spending so much money on amenities, to the point they would be in the red. Everyone would hate you and be like "dude, just effing quit and go somewhere else". It's juvenile, It's like a kid teenager being upset that mommy and daddy can't buy him all the toys in the world because he has no concept of budgeting money.

2. Whether or not we like it, it's reality. People budget. Poor people, rich people, and all good businessmen alike. Do people think that Rich men who own businesses just have all their money in some pile like Uncle Scrooge and go swimming in it? and have no concept of balancing a budget? no that's moronic. The Sox have a budget, and every move you make affects the rest of the roster.

 

In regards to the latter, I would understand the strife amongst fans if the Sox were frugal with their money like the Oakland A's. But that's not a reality, they're top 5 in spending every year for the past 2 1/2 decades. They've had last-place finishes and turned it around before and they will never stink long term at the rate they spend.

 

There's nothing more in this world than I would like for the Sox to have a bottomless wallet. Lets go out and sign Judge, resign Bogaerts, sign Degrome, and sign a bunch of other guys. But that's not realistic, this is a REALISTIC view of 2023.

 

Do we realize what REALISTIC means? Imagine I was a 280 lb obese man (and I used to be before I lost 100 lbs). Imagine hiring a personal trainer. Is that guy going to sell me pie in the sky and tell me I'm going to be a buff man in a year? no, he'd be lying to me. Realistically, I had to work hard at it every day in the gym and with my diet for over 3 years to reach my goal. That was reality, we live in a country were obesity runs rampant and fake diet pills is a billion-dollar industry because people don't live in reality.

 

I like the concept of realistically talking about what the Sox can or can not do, or likely will do. Anything more than that is like talking about what I would do if I won the lottery, yeah it's fun to dream but serves no purpose in reality when planning to take care of my family. I like to stay true to the meaning of this thread and have it based on reality.

 

And look, to each their own, even in "reality" opinions can vary widely. But every time I hear the "well it ain't my money" argument I'm going to chuckle and not take someone seriously, because you're not being serious. Ya'll can do you.

 

Good piece, but when you work for someone you are not paying them to do so. Watching the Red Sox by paying for NESN, or going to Fenway, and paying those high, high ticket prices to me makes it a little bit more of a different situation, and fans think they should have some sort of a voice.

[Hugh2]

Good piece, but when you work for someone you are not paying them to do so. Watching the Red Sox by paying for NESN, or going to Fenway, and paying those high, high ticket prices to me makes it a little bit more of a different situation, and fans think they should have some sort of a voice.

 

Yes your voice would be to not watch, not pay, and not go to the games. No one is forcing you too. And, despite those prices, their net income was about 70 million in 2021. Yeah, that's a nice chunk of change, but it would have been negative if they didn't get their rebates if they had been over the cap for over three years. Henry would have LOST money. Do you see the logic now?

[Old Red]

Yes your voice would be to not watch, not pay, and not go to the games. No one is forcing you too. And, despite those prices, their net income was about 70 million in 2021. Yeah, that's a nice chunk of change, but it would have been negative if they didn't get their rebates if they had been over the cap for over three years. Henry would have LOST money. Do you see the logic now?

Who said anything about not watching, or paying to go to games? What I said was fans have to do that, which is different than working for someone where they don’t. I’ve always seen the logic in not paying tax, or high payrolls, but like I’ve said many times I just don’t care. There are plenty of others who care about that, and like it, or not I don’t.

[Hugh2]

Who said anything about not watching, or paying to go to games? What I said was fans have to do that, which is different than working for someone where they don’t. I’ve always seen the logic in not paying tax, or high payrolls, but like I’ve said many times I just don’t care. There are plenty of others who care about that, and like it, or not I don’t.

 

You dont' care, we get it, and old men yell at clouds. No one in John Henry's position is going to constantly pay that tax. Even the Dodgers have started to reset every so often. You don't care is covering up the fact that you expect or desire somebody to do something with their money THAT NO ONE WOULD DO. It's called la la land.

[Old Red]

You dont' care, we get it, and old men yell at clouds. No one in John Henry's position is going to constantly pay that tax. Even the Dodgers have started to reset every so often. You don't care is covering up the fact that you expect or desire somebody to do something with their money THAT NO ONE WOULD DO. It's called la la land.

Call it what you want, but I’m content with my opinion much to your chagrin, and others. Thanks for the kind words though. It’s much appreciated.

[Hugh2]

Call it what you want, but I’m content with my opinion much to your chagrin, and others. Thanks for the kind words though. It’s much appreciated.

 

And everyone is entitled to their opinion. But your opinion, if expect the Sox to just blow the cap up every year, is not set in reality.....and the title of this thread is a REALISTIC view. So....do what you please with that information and just remember others are entitled to their opinions as well which also includes calling other people out on their illogical stances.

[Old Red]

And everyone is entitled to their opinion. But your opinion, if expect the Sox to just blow the cap up every year, is not set in reality.....and the title of this thread is a REALISTIC view. So....do what you please with that information and just remember others are entitled to their opinions as well which also includes calling other people out on their illogical stances.

 

Who said anything about blowing the cap up every year? No one did. I just say I don’t care if it was. What may be illogical to you, and I’m just not just talking about this subject might not be illogical to others, and that works both ways.

[moonslav59]

I get the "it ain't my money" argument. It just perplexes me that people think it's a rational argument. It's freaking stupid for two reasons.

 

1. It might not be "our" money, but it is someone else's money. Imagine you worked for a company, and you were upset with them for not spending so much money on amenities, to the point they would be in the red. Everyone would hate you and be like "dude, just effing quit and go somewhere else". It's juvenile, It's like a kid teenager being upset that mommy and daddy can't buy him all the toys in the world because he has no concept of budgeting money.

2. Whether or not we like it, it's reality. People budget. Poor people, rich people, and all good businessmen alike. Do people think that Rich men who own businesses just have all their money in some pile like Uncle Scrooge and go swimming in it? and have no concept of balancing a budget? no that's moronic. The Sox have a budget, and every move you make affects the rest of the roster.

 

In regards to the latter, I would understand the strife amongst fans if the Sox were frugal with their money like the Oakland A's. But that's not a reality, they're top 5 in spending every year for the past 2 1/2 decades. They've had last-place finishes and turned it around before and they will never stink long term at the rate they spend.

 

There's nothing more in this world than I would like for the Sox to have a bottomless wallet. Lets go out and sign Judge, resign Bogaerts, sign Degrome, and sign a bunch of other guys. But that's not realistic, this is a REALISTIC view of 2023.

 

Do we realize what REALISTIC means? Imagine I was a 280 lb obese man (and I used to be before I lost 100 lbs). Imagine hiring a personal trainer. Is that guy going to sell me pie in the sky and tell me I'm going to be a buff man in a year? no, he'd be lying to me. Realistically, I had to work hard at it every day in the gym and with my diet for over 3 years to reach my goal. That was reality, we live in a country were obesity runs rampant and fake diet pills is a billion-dollar industry because people don't live in reality.

 

I like the concept of realistically talking about what the Sox can or can not do, or likely will do. Anything more than that is like talking about what I would do if I won the lottery, yeah it's fun to dream but serves no purpose in reality when planning to take care of my family. I like to stay true to the meaning of this thread and have it based on reality.

 

And look, to each their own, even in "reality" opinions can vary widely. But every time I hear the "well it ain't my money" argument I'm going to chuckle and not take someone seriously, because you're not being serious. Ya'll can do you.

 

Well said, as usual.

[moonslav59]

I'm not prepared (and seriously doubt Bloom is, either) to deal either Rafaela or Bleis period -- not to mention in addition to Yorke and a pitching prospect; especially not for one position player.

 

The only way I'm emptying the farm -- and besides Mayer, all those guys are the best in the system -- is for Alcantara or another ace starter in his mid-20s.

 

And when's another time BTV is this relevant? Are Gonzalez and Duran really an overpay to the Marlins for Pablo Lopez and Garcia's contract?

 

Yes, IMO, if we decide to trade a top prospect or two. it will, or should be, a player with 3+ years of team control- most likely a pitcher. (Better with 4 or 5+ years of control)

[Hugh2]

Who said anything about blowing the cap up every year? No one did. I just say I don’t care if it was. What may be illogical to you, and I’m just not just talking about this subject might not be illogical to others, and that works both ways.

 

No at some point people can't just hide behind the well I have my opinion you have yours and we can just agree to disagree. At a certain point logic matters. I can't say "well you say 2+2 is 4 but I say it's 5 and I have my opinion and that's that" You can't hide behind that wall dude. If you want your opinion respected you need to acknowledge and respect that there's a budget and these things matter when we have a realistic conversation....otherwise what you say shouldn't be taken seriously. Not trying to sound like a dick here but that's the truth.

[Hugh2]

Who said anything about blowing the cap up every year? No one did. I just say I don’t care if it was. What may be illogical to you, and I’m just not just talking about this subject might not be illogical to others, and that works both ways.

 

See, this is what you do. That was the whole point of my post that YOU RESPONDED TOO. So if you're NOT saying that....what are you saying?

[Old Red]

No at some point people can't just hide behind the well I have my opinion you have yours and we can just agree to disagree. At a certain point logic matters. I can't say "well you say 2+2 is 4 but I say it's 5 and I have my opinion and that's that" You can't hide behind that wall dude. If you want your opinion respected you need to acknowledge and respect that there's a budget and these things matter when we have a realistic conversation....otherwise what you say shouldn't be taken seriously. Not trying to sound like a dick here but that's the truth.

 

Once again much to your chagrin I don’t have to do anything, but have an opinion, and if you don’t like that opinion TDB. You can worry about the budget all you want, and you do, and so do others, but I don’t have to, and I don’t, and you can’t convince me I have to, and that’s the bottom line CSCSS.

[Old Red]

Good article on yahoo/sports by Darren Hartwell on Bloom saying Bogey reports are overblown.

[Hugh2]

HAHA, this is hilarious.

 

Yes, thats' fine but you have to live in a world with everyone elses opinions too. And when your opinions are NOT based in reality you shouldn't be surprised when people call you out on your bull. #truth

 

Here's the reality. If an Owner blew up the cap every year, eventually they stop receiving rebates which take a large chunk of their revenue and return it. If you do the math, you can see a team like the Boston Red Sox would be in the Red. Eventually, they would cease to exist or possibly be sold. As much as you don't give a s*** because "you do you" you do realize there are owners out there unlike Henry who has payrolls under 100K every year. Do you want the Red Sox to turn into the A's? Because if the Sox ran the team with no concern for the budget and started losing money, they'd be sold off and eventually that could happen.

 

 

People seem to confuse everyone is entitled to an opinion with every opinion that should be respected. I call ********. One of my best friend's mother was murdered in Sandy Hook, people had opinions that the families should dig up the graves of their deceased to prove they existed and used to harass them all the time. They had their "opinions" on what really happened. SO no, not all opinions should be respected. That's an extreme example, those people are evil, this is sports and not so serious, I don't think you're evil so I apologize for using an absurd analogy. But the point remains if your opinion isn't realistic....be prepared to have it attacked and if your only defense is "well that's just my opinion" then you aren't really defending it well.