A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

MLB Channel panel called out the Red Sox for "not acting like a big market team." Yonder Alonzo did a thorough segment on why the Sox should lock up Devers. Dan Plesac made a great case for overpaying to keep Bogaerts.

 

MLB extra base hits, 2019-2022: 1. Devers 264, 2. Semien 248, 3. Ramirez 244, 4. Alonso 241, 5. Freeman 239

MLB shortstop WAR 2018-2022: 1. Bogaerts 23.4, 2. Turner 22.9, 3. Lindor 21.8, 4. Correa 21.1, 5. Anderson 16.3

[moonslav59]

MLB Channel panel called out the Red Sox for "not acting like a big market team." Yonder Alonzo did a thorough segment on why the Sox should lock up Devers. Dan Plesac made a great case for overpaying to keep Bogaerts.

 

MLB extra base hits, 2019-2022: 1. Devers 264, 2. Semien 248, 3. Ramirez 244, 4. Alonso 241, 5. Freeman 239

MLB shortstop WAR 2018-2022: 1. Bogaerts 23.4, 2. Turner 22.9, 3. Lindor 21.8, 4. Correa 21.1, 5. Anderson 16.3

 

If this costs us $60M a year AAV, that's over 25% of the player salary budget. What kind of team can we put around them? JH would have to greatly change his spending habits to make this work.

 

Will he?

[notin]

If this costs us $60M a year AAV, that's over 25% of the player salary budget. What kind of team can we put around them? JH would have to greatly change his spending habits to make this work.

 

Will he?

 

 

The Sox may simply not be a big market team whose plan is to capitulate to the demands of every player..

[Bellhorn04]

The Sox may simply not be a big market team whose plan is to capitulate to the demands of every player..

 

They never have been.

[notin]

They never have been.

 

But that is what fans want…

[Bellhorn04]

But that is what fans want…

 

That's what some fans want, sure. But of course if you break the bank on a guy and he doesn't meet expectations, they're furious.

 

Of course a fairly high % of fans are just miserable pricks who want everything their way.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

That's what some fans want, sure. But of course if you break the bank on a guy and he doesn't meet expectations, they're furious.

 

Of course a fairly high % of fans are just miserable pricks who want everything their way.

 

If fans were fairly high they wouldn't be so miserable, but I disagree with your definition. Most miserable pricks don't want everything their way; the misery comes from the perception of not getting anything their way...

 

I just want a good pretzel. But no packet mustard.

[notin]

That's what some fans want, sure. But of course if you break the bank on a guy and he doesn't meet expectations, they're furious.

 

Of course a fairly high % of fans are just miserable pricks who want everything their way.

 

The thing as, it’s hard to think of Boston, which is part of a smaller metropolitan area than Phoenix, as a market capable of competing with NY and LA. But a lot of people seem to think we are all the same size…

[Bellhorn04]

The thing as, it’s hard to think of Boston, which is part of a smaller metropolitan area than Phoenix, as a market capable of competing with NY and LA. But a lot of people seem to think we are all the same size…

 

We're not. But the Sox do have the third highest market value after NYY and LAD, per Forbes.

[notin]

We're not. But the Sox do have the third highest market value after NYY and LAD, per Forbes.

 

It is to think that we’re talking about a payroll crunch on a team that only has 5 players on guaranteed contracts. And that’s counting Whitlock’s small deal, Hosmer’s minimum wage deal, and Barnes’ very short deal…

[Bellhorn04]

It is to think that we’re talking about a payroll crunch on a team that only has 5 players on guaranteed contracts. And that’s counting Whitlock’s small deal, Hosmer’s minimum wage deal, and Barnes’ very short deal…

 

Our payroll crunch is tied to our talent shortage.

[notin]

Our payroll crunch is tied to our talent shortage.

 

With only 6 guaranteed contracts (I forgot about Kike), then lots of non-tendering is in order…

[moonslav59]

It is to think that we’re talking about a payroll crunch on a team that only has 5 players on guaranteed contracts. And that’s counting Whitlock’s small deal, Hosmer’s minimum wage deal, and Barnes’ very short deal…

 

That being said, most of us see only 4-6 high need slots to fill, which is way less than we've been looking at, the last few winters.

 

At most, I see 4-5 high need areas and 3-4 moderate need areas. In past winters we had more like 17-20 before 2020, 12-15 for 2021 and 10-12 last winter.

 

With way more money to spend, in theory, and less major slots to fill, I'm optimistic we can improve, while still keeping our sites on the longer term outlook.

 

We have a lot of promising prospects coming up real soon and in 1.5-3 seasons, too.

[harmony]

That being said, most of us see only 4-6 high need slots to fill, which is way less than we've been looking at, the last few winters.

 

At most, I see 4-5 high need areas and 3-4 moderate need areas. In past winters we had more like 17-20 before 2020, 12-15 for 2021 and 10-12 last winter.

 

With way more money to spend, in theory, and less major slots to fill, I'm optimistic we can improve, while still keeping our sites on the longer term outlook.

 

We have a lot of promising prospects coming up real soon and in 1.5-3 seasons, too.

At this time last year that Red Sox could return this lineup intact:

 

C Christian Vazquez

1B Bobby Dalbec (coming off a .955 OPS second half)

2B Christian Arroyo

3B Rafael Devers

SS Xander Bogaerts

LF Alex Verdugo

CF Kiki Hernandez

RF Hunter Renfroe

DH J.D. Martinez

 

To date the Red Sox have added Trevor Story, Rob Refsnyder, Reese McGuire/Connor Wong and the prospect of Triston Casas to that lineup while subtracting Martinez, Vazquez, Renfroe and possibly Bogaerts (not to mention the remote possibility of a Devers trade).

 

A year ago the Sox were counting on Chris Sale to rejoin Nathan Eovaldi and Nick Pivetta in a starting rotation that had gotten 13 solid starts from Tanner Houck. Now the Sox have Pivetta, the shells of Sale and James Paxton, and the promise of the unproven Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock and Houck.

 

If that does not present more holes to fill, the consensus is that the Red Sox must give bullpen upgrades high priority.

 

The Red Sox may face their most serious offseason challenges of the millennium while navigating the luxury tax threshold.

Edited November 13, 2022 by harmony

[Nick]

At this time last year that Red Sox could return this lineup intact:

 

C Christian Vazquez

1B Bobby Dalbec (coming off a .955 OPS second half)

2B Christian Arroyo

3B Rafael Devers

SS Xander Bogaerts

LF Alex Verdugo

CF Kiki Hernandez

RF Hunter Renfroe

DH J.D. Martinez

 

To date the Red Sox have added Trevor Story, Rob Refsnyder, Reese McGuire/Connor Wong and the prospect of Triston Casas to that lineup while subtracting Martinez, Vazquez, Renfroe and possibly Bogaerts (not to mention the remote possibility of a Devers trade).

 

A year ago the Sox were counting on Chris Sale to rejoin Nathan Eovaldi and Nick Pivetta in a starting rotation that had gotten 13 solid starts from Tanner Houck. Now the Sox have Pivetta, the shells of Sale and James Paxton, and the promise of the unproven Brayan Bello, Garrett Whitlock and Houck.

 

If that does not present more holes to fill, the consensus is that the Red Sox must give bullpen upgrades high priority.

 

The Red Sox may face their most serious offseason challenges of the millennium while navigating the luxury tax threshold.

 

I reiterate. Unless Bloom signs some mega star out of left field, I will never trust what he says.

 

"WE WILL BE MUCH BETTER" he told Kike. Bringing back Beni is not making us much better. Dumpster diving has its place but you also need a major star power at the top. Find me an ACE. Then we can talk.

[Bellhorn04]

I reiterate. Unless Bloom signs some mega star out of left field, I will never trust what he says.

 

"WE WILL BE MUCH BETTER" he told Kike. Bringing back Beni is not making us much better. Dumpster diving has its place but you also need a major star power at the top. Find me an ACE. Then we can talk.

 

The problem is it seems like you can't just trade a pile of junk for an ace any more, the way we did with Pedro and Schilling.

 

Aces cost plenty in prospect talent now, as Seattle's trade for Castillo illustrates.

[Nick]

The problem is it seems like you can't just trade a pile of junk for an ace any more, the way we did with Pedro and Schilling.

 

Aces cost plenty in prospect talent now, as Seattle's trade for Castillo illustrates.

 

Unfortunately we'll have to take a risk financially. Short term deal, say 3 year $105M to get Verlander? I don't want to give up any prospects.

 

Verlander

Sale

Eovaldi (sounds like he's coming back our way)

Pivetta

Bello

Whitlock

Paxton

 

Then focus on extending Devers.....let the new contract start in 2024.

[Bellhorn04]

Unfortunately we'll have to take a risk financially. Short term deal, say 3 year $105M to get Verlander? I don't want to give up any prospects.

 

Verlander

Sale

Eovaldi (sounds like he's coming back our way)

Pivetta

Bello

Whitlock

Paxton

 

Then focus on extending Devers.....let the new contract start in 2024.

 

I'm in on that.

[Hugh2]

Unfortunately we'll have to take a risk financially. Short term deal, say 3 year $105M to get Verlander? I don't want to give up any prospects.

 

Verlander

Sale

Eovaldi (sounds like he's coming back our way)

Pivetta

Bello

Whitlock

Paxton

 

Then focus on extending Devers.....let the new contract start in 2024.

 

That’s fine, but you’re also tying up 75-80 million in just Verlander and Bogaerts. You still need an outfielder, and at least 2-3 more pitchers.

 

Makes a Devers extension, or a Bogaerts reunion unlikely. Both unlikely, I think one happens. Still, if the SS FA market goes crazy, the Sox may go this route. IF someone signs Correa for 290-300 million, Bogaerts is getting a lot more than 160/180. I don’t think that happens….but it’s really hard to predict the market.

 

Especially this year. With the shift changes, there will be more value on up the middle defense, and with not a lot of talent elsewhere in the FA market teams looking to add offense could be thinking of moving a SS to 2nd/3rd and sign one of the big 4.

[moonslav59]

The problem is it seems like you can't just trade a pile of junk for an ace any more, the way we did with Pedro and Schilling.

 

Aces cost plenty in prospect talent now, as Seattle's trade for Castillo illustrates.

 

I don't think that trade gets made without the extension made shortly afterwards at $108M/5. Castillo has 6 years of control, now, and they had him for the 2022 playoffs, as well.

 

I'm fine with trading a hefty package for 5+ seasons of reasonable cost-controlled years. The team gets more of a sure bet for several big ifs.

 

So, who is out there, now?

 

I'd think long and hard about trading for 2 year SP'ers like Beiber or Lopez, unless they agree to an extension.

[moonslav59]

That’s fine, but you’re also tying up 75-80 million in just Verlander and Bogaerts. You still need an outfielder, and at least 2-3 more pitchers.

 

Makes a Devers extension, or a Bogaerts reunion unlikely. Both unlikely, I think one happens. Still, if the SS FA market goes crazy, the Sox may go this route. IF someone signs Correa for 290-300 million, Bogaerts is getting a lot more than 160/180. I don’t think that happens….but it’s really hard to predict the market.

 

Especially this year. With the shift changes, there will be more value on up the middle defense, and with not a lot of talent elsewhere in the FA market teams looking to add offense could be thinking of moving a SS to 2nd/3rd and sign one of the big 4.

 

I agree, the Correa contract might up what Bogey gets, assuming CC is signed first, but he is 2 years younger, so I'm not sure it's a great comp.

[Hugh2]

I agree, the Correa contract might up what Bogey gets, assuming CC is signed first, but he is 2 years younger, so I'm not sure it's a great comp.

 

It’s not a comp. I think it’s a forgone conclusion Correa is going to get paid more than Bogaerts but it’s a gauge of the markets. If Corre gets 300 Bogey is getting 250. If CC is getting 225-240 Bogey is probably getting something south of 200

[harmony]

I don't think that trade gets made without the extension made shortly afterwards at $108M/5. Castillo has 6 years of control, now, and they had him for the 2022 playoffs, as well.

 

I'm fine with trading a hefty package for 5+ seasons of reasonable cost-controlled years. The team gets more of a sure bet for several big ifs.

 

So, who is out there, now?

 

I'd think long and hard about trading for 2 year SP'ers like Beiber or Lopez, unless they agree to an extension.

It's doubtful the trade for Luis Castillo was contingent upon the righthander signing an extension with the Mariners. The Seattle front office likely contacted Castillo's agent shortly after the trade but the extension was not announced until eight weeks later.

[moonslav59]

It's doubtful the trade for Luis Castillo was contingent upon the righthander signing an extension with the Mariners. The Seattle front office likely contacted Castillo's agent shortly after the trade but the extension was not announced until eight weeks later.

 

Maybe, but I heard the same after the wink wink AGon signing.

[moonslav59]

For those who would trade the farm away, here is one for you...

 

BTV accepted this trade as a moderate overpay by the Sox:

 

Rafaela, Yorke, Wikelman and Jordan

to MIA for

6 years of Garrett and 3 years of Berti

 

This was accepted, too:

 

Mayer, Houck, Walter and Seabold

to PIT for

Reynolds and Bednar

 

Sign: Correa, Nate and Fulmer

 

Here you go:

 

C: McGuire/Wong

1B: Casas/Dalbec or Hosmer

2B: Story

3B: Devers

SS: Correa

LF: Berti

CF: Kike

RF: Reynolds

DH: Dugo/ Hosmer or Dalbec

IF: Arroyo

OF Refsnyder

 

SP1 Sale

SP2 Garrett

SP3 Eovaldi

SP4 Bello

SP5 Pivetta

SP6 Paxton/Crawford/Winckowski/Mata

 

Closer Bednar

RP2 Whitlock

RP3 Fulmer

RP4 Schreiber

RP5 Barnes

RP6 Taylor/Brasier/Reed

RP7 Kelly/German/Ort

 

(Note: I would not do this.)

 

 

[harmony]

Perhaps Chaim Bloom is negotiating an imminent trade with his former employer:

 

 

Or not.

[moonslav59]

Perhaps Chaim Bloom is negotiating an imminent trade with his former employer:

 

 

Or not.

 

Won't open. Why not tell us the suggested trade?

[mvp 78]

It’s not a comp. I think it’s a forgone conclusion Correa is going to get paid more than Bogaerts but it’s a gauge of the markets. If Corre gets 300 Bogey is getting 250. If CC is getting 225-240 Bogey is probably getting something south of 200

 

I'm not sure the two players are comparable. Correa is younger and better defensively. Bogey should be making much less than Correa.

[mvp 78]

Won't open. Why not tell us the suggested trade?

 

It only said the Rays are looking to make several trades prior to Tuesdays protection deadline. No specifics were mentioned.

[moonslav59]

It only said the Rays are looking to make several trades prior to Tuesdays protection deadline. No specifics were mentioned.

 

These teams with deep farms and 40 man rosters might be ripe for poaching.

 

We would need to be willing to give up quality prospects not yet at the Rule 5 mark.

 

I've always wanted Fairbanks, but maybe a guy like Margot is more likely.

 

BTV accepted

 

Houck & Romero for Fairbanks & Margot. (2- 40 man roster players for one-Houck)

 

Also,

 

Yorke, Wikelman, Walter and Murphy for the same 2 (none need to be on 40, except Walter, who is Rule 5.)