A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[oldtimer]

oonslav59;1504787]To me, there is zero chance the Sox pay Bogey $225M/8. I doubt they'd even go $200M/8.

 

$160M/6, maybe.

 

$135M/5 will likely not be his highest offer.

 

Fans tend to want their players to be paid the market rate, however many large contracts have a risk factor that often limits the team's overall performance. Bogaerts is a very good player but certainly Bloom will have to assess how to structure his and other salaries such that he can put a competitive team on the field year after year. Both the AAV and the risk associated with diminishing performances over the length of these long contracts is a subject that Kimmi has reacted to in the past.

 

The Astros were WS champs this year and have consistently been very competitive. They have been great at developing pitching and smart about signing players. Correa is a top notch shortstop but they let him go when his contract demand were enough to hamstring the budgetary requirements of the team. They got Pena as a low cost replacement. They have great pitching across the board, excellent defense and enough hitting to be competitive based of their pitching and defense. Their offense came primarily from their lineup positions 1 through 6 with Brantley being injured. The Sox management needs to look closely to see if they can structure our team going forward to emulate what the Astros have done.[/b]

[moonslav59]

Fans tend to want their players to be paid the market rate, however many large contracts have a risk factor that often limits the team's overall performance. Bogaerts is a very good player but certainly Bloom will have to assess how to structure his and other salaries such that he can put a competitive team on the field year after year. Both the AAV and the risk associated with diminishing performances over the length of these long contracts is a subject that Kimmi has reacted to in the past.

 

The Astros were WS champs this year and have consistently been very competitive. They have been great at developing pitching and smart about signing players. Correa is a top notch shortstop but they let him go when his contract demand were enough to hamstring the budgetary requirements of the team. They got Pena as a low cost replacement. They have great pitching across the board, excellent defense and enough hitting to be competitive based of their pitching and defense. Their offense came primarily from their lineup positions 1 through 6 with Brantley being injured. The Sox management needs to look closely to see if they can structure our team going forward to emulate what the Astros have done.[/size][/b]

 

I think that is the idea, and we have already started.

 

Like the Astros, we have a GM from the Rays' organization. Unlike the Astros, Bloom was not handed the farm and 40 man roster depth Click was handed with Houston, so he has spent much of his efforts on building up the farm and roster depth to near the foundation needed to begin the final steps of building a consistently competitive team. It's hard to know, if he's done the job needed, but we should find out, soon.

[harmony]

He is the second free best agent option for RF among those listed at the position, and the best one who winter have a QO and demand $300mill+. I would prefer Gallo over anyone on that list. But in your typical Strawman Fashion, you clearly ignore my repeated (and I do mean repeated) campaigning for another OF altogether as a player I’ve called “their best target” and instead focus on something else altogether.

 

I’m thinking the name “Strawman argument” should simply be renamed “Old Red Argument”…

 

An argument can be made for signing Benintendi for LF

In interview with a Seattle radio station, ESPN columnist Jon Morosi mentioned Joey Gallo as a player who could potentially benefit from new restrictions on defensive shifts:

“Is Joey Gallo all of a sudden an All-Star? I don’t know. No one knows,” Morosi said of the slugging outfielder who has been heavily shifted against and strikes out a ton. “Is (outfielder) Joc Peterson going to win the triple crown because people aren’t going to be shifting on him anymore? He’s a free agent, too … All of a sudden, Gallo and Peterson (may) become way different players. That to me is going to be the secret sauce of this entire offseason.”

 

“You might look at a guy and say ‘Wait a minute, his numbers make no sense.’ And guess what? He’s gonna be a better player next year because the shift is out of play, including potentially someone like (outfielder) Michael Conforto, who, as you know, has some northwest roots himself and is bouncing back from injury,” Morosi added, referring to the Redmond product who sat out 2022 while recovering from shoulder surgery. “So there could be some value found in places that we haven’t even thought of yet, which is why I love the baseball offseason.”

https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1687763/morosi-mariners-free-agent-bats-targets-2022/

 

This Seattle fan has Joey Gallo batting cleanup for the 2023 Mariners.

[notin]

In interview with a Seattle radio station, ESPN columnist Jon Morosi mentioned Joey Gallo as a player who could potentially benefit from new restrictions on defensive shifts:

 

https://sports.mynorthwest.com/1687763/morosi-mariners-free-agent-bats-targets-2022/

 

This Seattle fan has Joey Gallo batting cleanup for the 2023 Mariners.

 

So no mo’ Mitch?

[harmony]

So no mo’ Mitch?

FanGraphs columnist Jay Jaffe expects the Mariners to extend a qualifying offer that Mitch Haniger will accept:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffe-fangraphs-chat-11-4-22/

 

An astute Seattle fan projects this 2023 Mariner lineup (with 2023 age, career OBP, career OPS+ and single-season high in home runs):

 

LF Michael Conforto L (30), .356 OBP, 124 OPS+, 33 HR

1B Ty France R (28), .348 OBP, 122 OPS+, 20 HR

CF Julio Rodriguez R (22), .345 OBP, 147 OPS+, 28 HR

RF Joey Gallo L (29), .325 OBP, 109 OPS+, 41 HR

3B Eugenio Suarez R (31), .334 OBP, 111 OPS+, 49 HR

C Cal Raleigh S (26), .268 OBP, 101 OPS+, 27 HR

DH Mitch Haniger R (32), .335 OBP, 123 OPS+, 39 HR

SS J.P. Crawford L (28), .333 OBP, 95 OPS+, 9 HR

2B Gleyber Torres R (26), .331 OBP, 114 OPS+, 38 HR

 

No new long-term contracts; no outside free agents with qualifying offers.

[notin]

FanGraphs columnist Jay Jaffe expects the Mariners to extend a qualifying offer that Mitch Haniger will accept:

 

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/jay-jaffe-fangraphs-chat-11-4-22/

 

An astute Seattle fan projects this 2023 Mariner lineup (with 2023 age, career OBP, career OPS+ and single-season high in home runs):

 

LF Michael Conforto L (30), .356 OBP, 124 OPS+, 33 HR

1B Ty France R (28), .348 OBP, 122 OPS+, 20 HR

CF Julio Rodriguez R (22), .345 OBP, 147 OPS+, 28 HR

RF Joey Gallo L (29), .325 OBP, 109 OPS+, 41 HR

3B Eugenio Suarez R (31), .334 OBP, 111 OPS+, 49 HR

C Cal Raleigh S (26), .268 OBP, 101 OPS+, 27 HR

DH Mitch Haniger R (32), .335 OBP, 123 OPS+, 39 HR

SS J.P. Crawford L (28), .333 OBP, 95 OPS+, 9 HR

2B Gleyber Torres R (26), .331 OBP, 114 OPS+, 38 HR

 

No new long-term contracts; no outside free agents with qualifying offers.

 

And no chance it happens

[harmony]

And no chance it happens

As good as any November 6 projection ... not good at all.

 

Or are you assuming the Mariners will sign Aaron Judge and Trea Turner?

Edited November 6, 2022 by harmony

[moonslav59]

And no chance it happens

 

Nothing too outlandish.

[harmony]

Nothing too outlandish.

Just a qualifying offer for an incumbent, two non-QO free agents outside the Top 20 and a trade for a second baseman to bat in the 9 hole.

Edited November 7, 2022 by harmony

[moonslav59]

Just a qualifying offer for an incumbent, two non-QO free agents outside the Top 20 and a trade for a second baseman to bat in the 9 hole.

 

It's still a shot in the dark, but seems reasonable.

 

I do think your team tries to improve, this winter, within reason.

[notin]

As good as any November 6 projection ... not good at all.

 

Or are you assuming the Mariners will sign Aaron Judge and Trea Turner?

 

I’m assuming 1) Seattle doesn’t give up on all their young outfielders so quickly, and 2) Torres will be a Yankee. Now if the Mariners want Donaldson or IKF, it might be a bit more realistic.

 

I could see Conforto, who is from somewhere in the Pacific Northwest, signing with Seattle…

Edited November 7, 2022 by notin

[harmony]

I’m assuming 1) Seattle doesn’t give up on all their young outfielders so quickly, and 2) Torres will be a Yankee. Now if the Mariners want Donaldson or IKF, it might be a bit more realistic.

 

I could see Conforto, who is from somewhere in the Pacific Northwest, signing with Seattle…

The Mariners are likely to keep Jarred Kelenic but trade Jesse Winker and at least one of Kyle Lewis, Taylor Trammell and Cade Marlowe.

 

Seattle has no need for Josh Donaldson or Isiah Kiner-Falefa but might be interested in two years of Gleyber Torres, who has only $3 million in surplus trade value at Baseball Trade Values:

 

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/players/9590/

 

The top Yankee prospects are middle infielders and the Yanks may pursue one of the top free agent shortstops if Aaron Judge signs elsewhere.

 

If they lose Anthony Rizzo and Andrew Benintendi to free agency, would the Yankees be interested in the lefthanded bat of Jesse Winker? Whom would the Yankees want in return for Torres, who has posted 4.9 bWAR and a 104 OPS+ in 309 games over the past three seasons?

 

https://www.pinstripealley.com/2022/10/28/23427714/yankees-gleyber-torres-trade-future-solid-regular-limited-upside-above-average-offense-defense

 

https://empiresportsmedia.com/new-york-yankees/yankees-could-end-up-trading-starting-infielder-this-off-season/

 

https://www.overtimeheroics.net/2022/10/31/yankees-roster-addressing-the-infield/

 

Perhaps these questions are not appropriate for a Red Sox forum.

Edited November 7, 2022 by harmony

[Tedballgame]

But it doesn’t take into account budget. The post mentions the Sox ranked lower than KC. But which team do you think is capable of spending more?

 

Like I said, meaningless until March. Arguably they don’t even m mean much then, since they’re really all just some ‘s opinion. But that’s still another matter…

 

KC Is ranked ahead of the Red Sox because they have much better young major league players.

[mvp 78]

So we couldn’t give Shwarber 80 M? Bloom s*** the bed there bad time.

 

They could, they didn't want to.

[mvp 78]

What do fans really think about giving Bogaerts a contract equivalent to his perceived value. (8 years at $225 millions). Haven't heard from Kimmi on this one as yet.

 

Too many years IMO.

[mvp 78]

I don’t think fans really care how much most players make as long as they put together a team. Mookie was offered $300mill and most people are still critical of that trade…

 

Because the Sox should have at least countered Mookie's offer.

[mvp 78]

Bloom has a LOT of work to do to salvage his job.

 

Yup.

[mvp 78]

There is no point in the season when power rankings are more useless than right after the postseason when the free agents are set to depart but no one has replaced them yet.

 

Revisit this is March…

 

No, it just shows that Bloom has a lot of work this offseason to construct next year's roster which is true.

[mvp 78]

@David_Ornstein

EXCLUSIVE: Liverpool have been put up for sale by Fenway Sports Group. Sale deck has been produced for interested parties. Goldman Sachs + Morgan Stanley assisting evaluation process. Unclear if deal gets done but FSG inviting offers

 

Henry is coming into some $$$ soon.

[moonslav59]

They could, they didn't want to.

 

Our best OPS+ players in 2021 were...

 

134 Devers 3B

129 Bogey SS

128 JD DH

114 Renfroe RF

108 Kike CF

107 Dalbec 1B

107 Dugo LF

103 Arroyo 2B

77 Vazquez C

 

As it turned out, our 2022 corner OF'ers, 1Bmen and DH all declined significantly, but at the time, DH, LF and 1B did not look like our highest need area- 2B and maybe catcher did, aside from pitching.

 

2022

143 Refsnyder RF (only 177 PAs)

142 McGuire C (108 PAs) + 109 Vaz

141 Devers 3B

131 Bogey SS

117 JD DH

102 Story 2B + 103 Arroyo

102 Dugo LF

80 Dalbec 1B

75 Kike CF

60 JBJ RF

92 Cordero 1B/LF

86 Pham LF

78 Duran OF

 

Clearly, in hindsight, we could have used a LF/1Bman and future DH, too. We did need help at 2B, too.

 

[moonslav59]

Because the Sox should have at least countered Mookie's offer.

 

Agreed, even if just for the optics.

 

Had they countered with $320M/11, would Mookie have accepted?

[mvp 78]

@redsoxstats

When I ran that survey a couple of weeks ago, the average Bogaerts contract you voted for was 5.8 years, $26.9M AAV (6 years, $161M).

 

Fangraphs just released all their crowdsource:

 

6/168M median

6/173M average

 

FanGraphs writers: "No one is quite sure what to make of Bogaerts"

 

6/165 (27.5 AAV) seems reasonable to me. I don't know where Heyman is getting the 8 years from. Maybe that's just the "ask" right now?

[mvp 78]

Agreed, even if just for the optics.

 

Had they countered with $320M/11, would Mookie have accepted?

 

Probably not, but at least it's a counter offer and not just walking away!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

No, it just shows that Bloom has a lot of work this offseason to construct next year's roster which is true.

 

I have little hope he'll swing all the necessary moves in the next few months to make that much of a difference for the 2023 team...

 

... but that doesn't mean we don't have a lot of work to do: posting unreasonable trade proposals and suggesting expenditures that only big market franchises can afford.

 

The real frustration with the Bloom Era includes all those posts within reason that responsible typists have been submitting since the Fall of 2019. Like, how many teams do guys like Brad Hand and David Robertson have to pitch for while the Red Sox keep choosing the Robles, Diekmans and Familias of the bullpen gutters? The answer is 9 or 10 so far (if you count the Olympics) combined for Hand and Robertson -- who were good enough to pitch in this year's World Series.

[moonslav59]

I have little hope he'll swing all the necessary moves in the next few months to make that much of a difference for the 2023 team...

 

... but that doesn't mean we don't have a lot of work to do: posting unreasonable trade proposals and suggesting expenditures that only big market franchises can afford.

 

The real frustration with the Bloom Era includes all those posts within reason that responsible typists have been submitting since the Fall of 2019. Like, how many teams do guys like Brad Hand and David Robertson have to pitch for while the Red Sox keep choosing the Robles, Diekmans and Familias of the bullpen gutters? The answer is 9 or 10 so far (if you count the Olympics) combined for Hand and Robertson -- who were good enough to pitch in this year's World Series.

 

 

It's hit or miss on many of these second and third tier RP'ers. The 2021 Brad Hand was no steal. Robertson is 37 and went through a very rough patch from 2019-2021. It's hard to fault a GM for not taking a chance on him.

 

Bloom did hit on Schreiber and Strahm- maybe even Kelly. It's hard to fo 6 for 6 on RP'er additions, even when spending big on the pen- something Bloom has yet to do.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's hit or miss on many of these second and third tier RP'ers. The 2021 Brad Hand was no steal. Robertson is 37 and went through a very rough patch from 2019-2021. It's hard to fault a GM for not taking a chance on him.

 

Bloom did hit on Schreiber and Strahm- maybe even Kelly. It's hard to fo 6 for 6 on RP'er additions, even when spending big on the pen- something Bloom has yet to do.

 

 

The point for Red Sox fans -- especially this winter -- is that we shouldn't have to hope the guy in charge of assembling the roster in Boston has to find a steal or get lucky when recruiting ballplayers.

[Hugh2]

@redsoxstats

When I ran that survey a couple of weeks ago, the average Bogaerts contract you voted for was 5.8 years, $26.9M AAV (6 years, $161M).

 

Fangraphs just released all their crowdsource:

 

6/168M median

6/173M average

 

FanGraphs writers: "No one is quite sure what to make of Bogaerts"

 

6/165 (27.5 AAV) seems reasonable to me. I don't know where Heyman is getting the 8 years from. Maybe that's just the "ask" right now?

 

That same group also says JD might get 3/54... ughh no. That's probably within the ballpark of what Bogaerts gets though. FWIW Clemens prediction of 7/217 was my exact prediction here and in other places. But I'm starting to think his real market value will fall somewhere between. Maybe 6/180 7/200

 

If those crowdsource numbers were 100% accurate predictors of the future, I'd just spend the 10 million more on Turner.

[mvp 78]

I have little hope he'll swing all the necessary moves in the next few months to make that much of a difference for the 2023 team...

 

... but that doesn't mean we don't have a lot of work to do: posting unreasonable trade proposals and suggesting expenditures that only big market franchises can afford.[/b]

Minor Overpay Alert!

 

Adolis Garcia

 

For

 

Walter

Duran

Lugo

Murphy

[mvp 78]

That same group also says JD might get 3/54... ughh no. That's probably within the ballpark of what Bogaerts gets though. FWIW Clemens prediction of 7/217 was my exact prediction here and in other places. But I'm starting to think his real market value will fall somewhere between. Maybe 6/180 7/200

 

If those crowdsource numbers were 100% accurate predictors of the future, I'd just spend the 10 million more on Turner.

 

Yes, I'd spend a premium to get Turner here.

 

I wouldn't pay JD 3/34.

[notin]

Probably not, but at least it's a counter offer and not just walking away!

 

Optics schmoptics.

 

End of the day, if it didn’t get Mookie re-signed, what difference does it make?