A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

They traded Lance Berkman!!!

 

That's not "many," and he was 34.

[moonslav59]

While good minor league stats don't guarantee ML success, most good ML players were also very good in the minors.

 

Here are some numbers of the prospects we traded for at the deadline:

 

Abreu

.247 19 73 (.834 OPS) 31 SB/ 5 CS (2nd in all of minor league baseball in BBs w 114) .399 OBP

 

E Valdez

.296 28 107 (.918 OPS) .376 OBP

 

Ferguson

.214 7 60 (.705 OPS) 61 SB/ 6 CS (.366 OBP)

 

Rosier

.242 7 41 (388 PAs) 40 SB/ 5 CS (10th in the minors in BB w 96) .730 OPS (.359 OBP)

 

 

 

Edited November 5, 2022 by moonslav59

[notin]

That's not "many," and he was 34.

 

And that was 12 years ago

[Nick]

It will be interesting 2 months.....

 

Fact is we DON'T know what Bloom is thinking.

 

"Team will be MUCH better"....I hope he doesn't use the logic of having Sale back alone will make the "Team will be MUCH better".

[moonslav59]

It will be interesting 2 months.....

 

Fact is we DON'T know what Bloom is thinking.

 

"Team will be MUCH better"....I hope he doesn't use the logic of having Sale back alone will make the "Team will be MUCH better".

 

If we reset the tax, like I think we will, it might not really matter, if we count on Sale or not. We will be leaving a few slots to what we have, now or spread the money so thinly no slot gets filled with top quality players.

 

Some other big questions are...

 

Is Houck coming back strong? If yes, in what role?

 

What role will Whitlock be given?

 

Have we decided what slots will be left to what we have already?

C- McGuire, Wong, CHamilton/RHern

1B/DH: Casas, Dalbec-Hosmer, EValdez

 

How many resources will be dedicated to the pen?

[jad]

So once again, we are supposed to celebrate when the RS tweet ecstatically "RESET!!!!" ?

[moonslav59]

So once again, we are supposed to celebrate when the RS tweet ecstatically "RESET!!!!" ?

 

Nobody is happy about it. Certainly, nobody is throwing a party.

 

Would you prefer we deny reality?

 

Nothing we say or do here is going to change JH's mind about the budget. He will almost certainly demand a reset in 2023 or 2024, no matter how much we complain or pout.

[Bellhorn04]

Nobody knows anything.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Nobody knows anything.

 

Turn off your mind, relax, and float downstream...

[notin]

Turn off your mind, relax, and float downstream...

 

It is not dying, it is not dying…

[moonslav59]

All play the game

Existence to the end...

[moonslav59]

Lay down all thoughts

Surrender to the void

[iortiz]

So we couldn’t give Shwarber 80 M? Bloom s*** the bed there bad time.

[oldtimer]

What do fans really think about giving Bogaerts a contract equivalent to his perceived value. (8 years at $225 millions). Haven't heard from Kimmi on this one as yet.

[redsoxrules]

What do fans really think about giving Bogaerts a contract equivalent to his perceived value. (8 years at $225 millions). Haven't heard from Kimmi on this one as yet.

 

I like the AAV. I would prefer 2 year shorter. 6 years and bump the AAV a bit. 6 years 180

[notin]

What do fans really think about giving Bogaerts a contract equivalent to his perceived value. (8 years at $225 millions). Haven't heard from Kimmi on this one as yet.

 

I don’t think fans really care how much most players make as long as they put together a team. Mookie was offered $300mill and most people are still critical of that trade…

[moonslav59]

To me, there is zero chance the Sox pay Bogey $225M/8. I doubt they'd even go $200M/8.

 

$160M/6, maybe.

 

$135M/5 will likely not be his highest offer.

[moonslav59]

The off season has begun.

[randywatson]

I don’t think fans really care how much most players make as long as they put together a team. Mookie was offered $300mill and most people are still critical of that trade…

 

The price is only ever remembered when the player doesn't deliver.

 

I'm sure there's not one phillies fan is complaining about harpers hefty wage anymore. Ok, they didn't win the world series, but they came bloody close.

 

The sox need nail down bogaerts and devers ASAP, not so much regardless of cost, but pay the guys the going rate and a bit more.

 

Then add in two decent additions and a run at pennant, at the very least for next season is a very real possibility

[Tedballgame]

Per ESPN 2023 power rankings:

 

23. Boston Red Sox

2022 record: 78-84 (fifth in the AL East)

 

2022 final ranking: 17

 

It's hard to know what to make of the Red Sox right now with two last-place finishes sandwiched around a playoff trip in 2021. Xander Bogaerts was their best player in 2022, and he's expected to opt out of his player option and head into free agency. Boston can slide Trevor Story over to shortstop, although his arm strength is an issue, so maybe the Red Sox will sign another of the free-agent shortstops (or a stopgap until top prospect Marcelo Mayer is ready).

 

Their top two pitchers via WAR were Michael Wacha and John Schreiber, which is not a path to success, as the Red Sox finished 22nd in the majors in rotation ERA and 26th in bullpen ERA. Wacha, Nathan Eovaldi and Rich Hill are all free agents, which is 69 starts to figure out. The hope is 30 of those will come from Chris Sale, who made just two starts in 2022 after suffering a stress fracture in his rib cage, a broken pinkie and then a fractured wrist in a bicycle accident.

 

Some veterans like Alex Verdugo and Enrique Hernandez are capable of better seasons, and the Red Sox have money to spend, but this feels like a roster in disarray.

 

 

Doesn't sound too promising right now. #23 with teams like the Royals, Angels and Cubs ahead of them. Bloom has a LOT of work to do to salvage his job.

[Bellhorn04]

Per ESPN 2023 power rankings:

 

23. Boston Red Sox

2022 record: 78-84 (fifth in the AL East)

 

2022 final ranking: 17

 

It's hard to know what to make of the Red Sox right now with two last-place finishes sandwiched around a playoff trip in 2021. Xander Bogaerts was their best player in 2022, and he's expected to opt out of his player option and head into free agency. Boston can slide Trevor Story over to shortstop, although his arm strength is an issue, so maybe the Red Sox will sign another of the free-agent shortstops (or a stopgap until top prospect Marcelo Mayer is ready).

 

Their top two pitchers via WAR were Michael Wacha and John Schreiber, which is not a path to success, as the Red Sox finished 22nd in the majors in rotation ERA and 26th in bullpen ERA. Wacha, Nathan Eovaldi and Rich Hill are all free agents, which is 69 starts to figure out. The hope is 30 of those will come from Chris Sale, who made just two starts in 2022 after suffering a stress fracture in his rib cage, a broken pinkie and then a fractured wrist in a bicycle accident.

 

Some veterans like Alex Verdugo and Enrique Hernandez are capable of better seasons, and the Red Sox have money to spend, but this feels like a roster in disarray.

 

Sobering indeed, and pretty fair, frankly.

[moonslav59]

Per ESPN 2023 power rankings:

 

23. Boston Red Sox

2022 record: 78-84 (fifth in the AL East)

 

2022 final ranking: 17

 

It's hard to know what to make of the Red Sox right now with two last-place finishes sandwiched around a playoff trip in 2021. Xander Bogaerts was their best player in 2022, and he's expected to opt out of his player option and head into free agency. Boston can slide Trevor Story over to shortstop, although his arm strength is an issue, so maybe the Red Sox will sign another of the free-agent shortstops (or a stopgap until top prospect Marcelo Mayer is ready).

 

Their top two pitchers via WAR were Michael Wacha and John Schreiber, which is not a path to success, as the Red Sox finished 22nd in the majors in rotation ERA and 26th in bullpen ERA. Wacha, Nathan Eovaldi and Rich Hill are all free agents, which is 69 starts to figure out. The hope is 30 of those will come from Chris Sale, who made just two starts in 2022 after suffering a stress fracture in his rib cage, a broken pinkie and then a fractured wrist in a bicycle accident.

 

Some veterans like Alex Verdugo and Enrique Hernandez are capable of better seasons, and the Red Sox have money to spend, but this feels like a roster in disarray.

 

 

Doesn't sound too promising right now. #23 with teams like the Royals, Angels and Cubs ahead of them. Bloom has a LOT of work to do to salvage his job.

 

Are we 23rd or 17th?

[Tedballgame]

Are we 23rd or 17th?

 

23rd now based on who the Sox will lose off the end of the year team. Not a pretty site.

[moonslav59]

23rd now based on who the Sox will lose off the end of the year team. Not a pretty site.

 

Okay. That makes sense, as we are set to lose more than most teams.

 

We are also set to add more pieces than most teams, especially those weak teams you mentioned. My guess is, we end up much higher than 17th at the start of 2023 but maybe not as highly as many here are hoping for.

[notin]

Are we 23rd or 17th?

 

There is no point in the season when power rankings are more useless than right after the postseason when the free agents are set to depart but no one has replaced them yet.

 

Revisit this is March…

Edited November 6, 2022 by notin

[Nick]

There is no point in the session when power rankings are more useless than right after the postseason when the free agents are set to depart but no one has replaced them yet.

 

Revisit this is March…

 

Good point....

[Nick]

I am not going to live and die by 2023 season.

 

It's all about making 'progress' towards next championship team.

 

We can't make the finances work if every player we need comes out of free agency. That includes both Xander and Devers who will be free agents. Bottom line is we came in dead last with both Xander and Devers this year. Not their fault obviously. But we wasted two productive seasons out of our top two players. That's on the management. We didn't do enough to augment their productive season. Make all the excuses with injuries. But injuries are part of the equation. Chris Sale is no longer viewed as a sure thing based on last three years. The trade was excellent, his extension not so much.

 

We need to be very careful about giving out say 8 year deal as an example to Xander, who is 30. How confident are we with Mayer at shortstop position? I'm just opposed to a pay raise of $10M to Xander and extension on years. We have competent shortstops in Story/Kike tandem.. Their salaries are baked in. Are we not better off using $30M on a short term deal say on a starting pitcher?

 

I'm all for paying a little more for 2-3 year deals. Except of course for Devers. He's young enough for the Sox to build the next World Series title contender around him. I'm more concerned about extending him this winter than paying exuberant price for Xander. We will regret it.

Edited November 6, 2022 by Nick

[moonslav59]

There is no point in the season when power rankings are more useless than right after the postseason when the free agents are set to depart but no one has replaced them yet.

 

Revisit this is March…

 

It shows the starting point for the off season.

[notin]

It shows the starting point for the off season.

 

But it doesn’t take into account budget. The post mentions the Sox ranked lower than KC. But which team do you think is capable of spending more?

 

Like I said, meaningless until March. Arguably they don’t even m mean much then, since they’re really all just some ‘s opinion. But that’s still another matter…

[moonslav59]

But it doesn’t take into account budget. The post mentions the Sox ranked lower than KC. But which team do you think is capable of spending more?

 

Like I said, meaningless until March. Arguably they don’t even m mean much then, since they’re really all just some ‘s opinion. But that’s still another matter…

 

I think it shows where we are, right now. We all know we'll pass KC, and we will spend more than many teams ahead of us, right now, but it also shows us behind other big spending teams and shows the challenge we have there.

 

The ranking may not mean much, but I do think our current ranking is about right.