A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

No, but his $23mill salary limits the ability to move him…

 

Especially the more he ages, but if he has a very good 2023, I think there would be takers.

 

His glove is amazing.

[Old Red]

No, but his $23mill salary limits the ability to move him…

 

So it was a bad for the Red Sox to sign him for that much money?

[mvp 78]

His arm is apparently strong enough for RF, too.

 

Our biggest needs beyond pitching are SS and RF. CF will be open in 2024.

 

soxprospects does tout his SS defense:

 

Field: Versatile, standout defender. Has the potential to be a plus defender at second, short, third, and in the outfield, but best position is center field. In the outfield, has really good instincts. Takes really good routes and has plus range. Played primarily third base in 2018, but also saw time at shortstop. In 2019, split time evenly between second, third, and short. In 2021, became a true utility player, also playing the outfield, showing the ability to play a plus center field. Named farm system's 2021 Defensive Player of the Year.

Arm: Plus arm. Quick release and arm shows good carry.

 

If his bat really came around, Sox would love to just plop him in CF for 6 years at low cost. For now, they rotate him between CF and SS just to let him keep refining his game at both positions if they just use him as a UTIL in 2024.

[mvp 78]

When Story was signed it was pointed out that Bogey did not hit as good away from Fenway like Story didn’t hit as good away from Coors, but like I pointed out now Story will not play any games at Coors.

 

I think people expected a little bit of regression, but Story had kind of a bad year. He shouldn't be a 100 wRC+ guy. He needs to be better than that for what he's paid regardless of his defense.

[moonslav59]

When Story was signed it was pointed out that Bogey did not hit as good away from Fenway like Story didn’t hit as good away from Coors, but like I pointed out now Story will not play any games at Coors.

 

Yes, we heard that several times, and it is a good point, but he did hit better at Fenway than he did in away games.

 

The point some were making, not you, was that we might expect his previous away numbers as his total numbers, which should not be the case, but in 2022 it was pretty close (and worse).

 

Career Away before 2022:

.310/.442/.752

 

Overall 2022 numbers

.303/.434/.737

 

This cannot continue for the Story signing to be viewed as a plus. His great D, high RBI totals and good baserunning cannot overcome those numbers.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If his bat really came around, Sox would love to just plop him in CF for 6 years at low cost. For now, they rotate him between CF and SS just to let him keep refining his game at both positions if they just use him as a UTIL in 2024.

 

Ceddane's 2022 season: 63 XBH, .342 OBP.

 

Before anyone goes all Duran on those stats, note that Rafaela is only 21 years old. Excelling at that age in A and AA gives much hope for continued improvements.

[Maxbialystock]

I just put 240 out there. I'd actually take 300Ks, if any player also gave me .340 and 60 XBhs.

 

Out of the top 270 players in MLB by PAs (30 teams x 9 batters):

 

67 had an OBP over .340 (only 24%)

 

18 of those 67 had a SLG% under .425.

 

Not many hitters have a .340 and 60+ XBH.

 

Also, on Story's OBP: it is not largely fed by a high BB rate. He has a decent .268 BA and an 8.5 BB%. He has decent speed and has only 24 GIDPs in his last 1900+ PAs.

 

Interesting. In MLB in 2022, the Cleveland Guardians finished dead last out of 30 teams in striking out. Everybody struck out more than they did. Next to the "bottom" (assuming not striking out is actually a good thing) would be the Houston Astros.

 

And next year those bold shifts are going to be tempered somewhat, requiring two infielders in each side of 2b.

 

So I'm not sure sure I want guys at the plate who feel that striking out is actually a good thing provided they get an xbh every so often.

 

The Yankees led MLB in dingers with 254 and the Guardians were 29th with 127. They meet tonight in game 5 to decide who gets to play the Astros in the ALCS. The Guardians beat the Rays twice, 2-1 and 1-0 (in 15 innings), to get to the ALDS, where Gerrit Cole has now beaten them twice. But the Guardians won the other two games.

Edited October 17, 2022 by Maxbialystock

[Bellhorn04]

I think people expected a little bit of regression, but Story had kind of a bad year. He shouldn't be a 100 wRC+ guy. He needs to be better than that for what he's paid regardless of his defense.

 

What makes it harder to evaluate is that his season was derailed pretty badly by injuries.

 

He had a 3.4 fWAR in 94 games, equivalent to 3.8 in 150 games.

[Bellhorn04]

Would you take 300Ks with a .380 OBP and 40 HRs?

 

I'm guessing that's humanly impossible.

[moonslav59]

Interesting. In MLB in 2022, the Cleveland Guardians finished dead last out of 30 teams in striking out. Everybody struck out more than they did. Next to the "bottom" (assuming not striking out is actually a good thing) would be the Houston Astros.

 

And next year those bold shifts are going to be tempered somewhat, requiring two infielders in each side of 2b.

 

So I'm not sure sure I want guys at the plate who feel that striking out is actually a good thing provided they get an xbh every so often.

 

The Yankees led MLB in dingers with 254 and the Guardians were 29th with 127. They meet tonight in game 5 to decide who gets to play the Astros in the ALCS. The Guardians beat the Rays twice, 2-1 and 1-0 (in 15 innings), to get to the ALDS, where Gerrit Cole has now beaten them twice. But the Guardians won the other two games.

 

I'm not saying anyone should try to K more, or that it is a good thing. I will say it is better than a DP, and that maybe less DPs help even out the less base runners advanced on ground outs or sac flies.

 

My point is, there are a select few players who K a lot, but they also produce when they don't K. I'm not sure why a .340 OBP with 60+ XBHs doesn't outweigh 200Ks. Add to that, great D and good base-running, and Story would be a big plus, if he can get to .340/60 XBHs, no matter how many K's he has.

 

The man who led MLB in OBP and HRs, Aaron Judge, also had a 25% K rate.

Trout had a .369 OBP and a 28% K rate.

 

It's not common, but these guys are damn good, despite the high K rates.

[notin]

I'm guessing that's humanly impossible.

 

Considering the single season record is 223 (Mark Reynolds, 2009)..

[notin]

What makes it harder to evaluate is that his season was derailed pretty badly by injuries.

 

He had a 3.4 fWAR in 94 games, equivalent to 3.8 in 150 games.

 

Struggling to figure out how 3.4 fWAR in 94 games is 3.8 in 150. As your math is normally quite good, what am I missing?

[oldtimer]

The game is evolving with the shift gone and bigger bases. The Sox are talking about becoming more athletic and that makes sense to me. Defense, base running and on base percentage are traits to look for. The Sox have money to spend but likely will wish to keep the salaries below the tax line and reset in 2023. Bloom should have recognized the situation in 2022 and reset then but didn't leaving 2023 as the most reasonable time for a reset.

 

I feel that if we truly wish to keep Raffy we will need to sign Bogey as they are close. If Bogey goes, Raffy will likely go as well. So resolving the issue by keeping Bogey, who is a very goo player in his own right, would give us a starting point for signing other.

 

It's pitching we need first with Sale iffy and Bello young but upcoming. Whitlock is the other lock. So sign at least one front line starter and one dependable high leverage reliever. Look to Casas and Rafaela to provide young low cost talent and rid ourselves of the deadwood.

 

So who would are athletic players be in that case? Story, Kike, Rafaela with sort of average athleticism out of Bogey, Raffy and Verdugo.

 

There was a list published about the worst contracts held by each club. It was surprising to see how many long term $25 million ++ contracts there are in MLB that are underperforming. Ours is Sale currently and Bloom needs to be wise not to handicap the team by taking on others.

[moonslav59]

I'm guessing that's humanly impossible.

 

I used exaggeration just to make a point.

 

Here are some real examples of some of the highest K rates in a season since 2000 with the players OBP:

 

37% Gallo in '17 .333 (62 XBHs in 532 PAs)

36% Sano in '16 .346 (48 XBhs in 495 PAs)

36% Happ in '18 .353 (37 XBHs in 462 PAs)

36% Sano in '17 .352 (45 XBHs in 483 PAs)

35% Gallo in '21 .351 (52 XBhs in 616 PAs)

33% Cust in '08 .375 (52 XBhs in 598 PAs)

 

Most of these guys were easily over an .800 OPS.

 

[mvp 78]

Ceddane's 2022 season: 63 XBH, .342 OBP.

 

Before anyone goes all Duran on those stats, note that Rafaela is only 21 years old. Excelling at that age in A and AA gives much hope for continued improvements.

 

Rafaela's issue is his 5% bb rate. His A+ numbers are bolstered by a 409 BABIP. His chase rate right now is pretty terrible and the Sox staff is working on it with him. If he can relax on swinging at pitches out of the zone and get the bb rate up, he's a surefire starting MLBer.

[mvp 78]

Interesting. In MLB in 2022, the Cleveland Guardians finished dead last out of 30 teams in striking out. Everybody struck out more than they did. Next to the "bottom" (assuming not striking out is actually a good thing) would be the Houston Astros.

 

And next year those bold shifts are going to be tempered somewhat, requiring two infielders in each side of 2b.

 

So I'm not sure sure I want guys at the plate who feel that striking out is actually a good thing provided they get an xbh every so often.

 

The Yankees led MLB in dingers with 254 and the Guardians were 29th with 127. They meet tonight in game 5 to decide who gets to play the Astros in the ALCS. The Guardians beat the Rays twice, 2-1 and 1-0 (in 15 innings), to get to the ALDS, where Gerrit Cole has now beaten them twice. But the Guardians won the other two games.

 

I'm glad that there is a team finding success with a bunch of "lesser" guys who just put the ball in play.

[Bellhorn04]

Struggling to figure out how 3.4 fWAR in 94 games is 3.8 in 150. As your math is normally quite good, what am I missing?

 

Sorry, 2.4 in 94 games.

[mvp 78]

What makes it harder to evaluate is that his season was derailed pretty badly by injuries.

 

He had a 3.4 fWAR in 94 games, equivalent to 3.8 in 150 games.

 

He was ok, but you didn't have to give him an extra 1 fangWIN. His defense was outstanding. His 100 wRC+ needs to be better for 20M+. I will not apologize for that saying.

[mvp 78]

What if he struck out 500 times, but hit 100 HR's with 400 R'sBI? Would that be okay for you?

[mvp 78]

I used exaggeration just to make a point.

 

Here are some real examples of some of the highest K rates in a season since 2000 with the players OBP:

 

37% Gallo in '17 .333 (62 XBHs in 532 PAs)

36% Sano in '16 .346 (48 XBhs in 495 PAs)

36% Happ in '18 .353 (37 XBHs in 462 PAs)

36% Sano in '17 .352 (45 XBHs in 483 PAs)

35% Gallo in '21 .351 (52 XBhs in 616 PAs)

33% Cust in '08 .375 (52 XBhs in 598 PAs)

 

Most of these guys were easily over an .800 OPS.

 

 

Sano 2016: 0.6 fWAR

 

That's a no for me dawg.

[Bellhorn04]

He was ok, but you didn't have to give him an extra 1 fangWIN. His defense was outstanding. His 100 wRC+ needs to be better for 20M+. I will not apologize for that saying.

 

FanGraphs says his 2.4 fWAR was "worth" $18.9 mill based on average free agent cost per win.

 

3.8 fWAR would be "worth" about $30 mill.

[mvp 78]

The game is evolving with the shift gone and bigger bases. The Sox are talking about becoming more athletic and that makes sense to me. Defense, base running and on base percentage are traits to look for. The Sox have money to spend but likely will wish to keep the salaries below the tax line and reset in 2023. Bloom should have recognized the situation in 2022 and reset then but didn't leaving 2023 as the most reasonable time for a reset.

 

I feel that if we truly wish to keep Raffy we will need to sign Bogey as they are close. If Bogey goes, Raffy will likely go as well. So resolving the issue by keeping Bogey, who is a very goo player in his own right, would give us a starting point for signing other.

 

If Xander goes and they can't re-sign Raffy, should they just trade him in the offseason?

[mvp 78]

FanGraphs says his 2.4 fWAR was "worth" $18.9 mill based on average free agent cost per win.

 

3.8 fWAR would be "worth" about $30 mill.

 

Let's see him get to 3.8 first.

[notin]

Sorry, 2.4 in 94 games.

 

Oh. Ok. Makes more sense.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I used exaggeration just to make a point.

 

Here are some real examples of some of the highest K rates in a season since 2000 with the players OBP:

 

37% Gallo in '17 .333 (62 XBHs in 532 PAs)

36% Sano in '16 .346 (48 XBhs in 495 PAs)

36% Happ in '18 .353 (37 XBHs in 462 PAs)

36% Sano in '17 .352 (45 XBHs in 483 PAs)

35% Gallo in '21 .351 (52 XBhs in 616 PAs)

33% Cust in '08 .375 (52 XBhs in 598 PAs)

 

Most of these guys were easily over an .800 OPS.

 

 

The Yankee fans I know hate Gallo with a passion and would love to see the Red Sox sign him. I'm guessing those emotions aren't because of his Gold Glove defense.

[Bellhorn04]

Let's see him get to 3.8 first.

 

Jeez, nobody likes a guy who gets hit in the hand with a pitch...

[notin]

The Yankee fans I know hate Gallo with a passion and would love to see the Red Sox sign him. I'm guessing those emotions aren't because of his Gold Glove defense.

 

I’m probably the biggest Gallo supporter here and I would rank him as the third best option, and even that could go down since I have no idea who besides Laureano will be available via trade.

 

Technically he’s the fifth best IMO but I took out the QO candidates (Nimmo and Judge) since I strongly doubt the Sox sign anyone with a QO.

 

I do like the Benintendi suggestion for LF, with Verdugo going to RF. I see Benintendi as a lesser albeit healthier version of Nimmo and a potential leadoff hitter.

 

And Ramon Laureano is a better option.

 

I’m open to other suggestions, but I will discredit one I feel are unrealistic (like Judge) for that exact reason…

[mvp 78]

Jeez, nobody likes a guy who gets hit in the hand with a pitch...

 

Story is fine. Let him get to 3.8 before he's a 3.8 guy is all otherwise his numbers are still skewed by that short stretch where he was super duper hot.

[mvp 78]

I’m probably the biggest Gallo supporter here and I would rank him as the third best option, and even that could go down since I have no idea who besides Laureano will be available via trade.

 

Technically he’s the fifth best IMO but I took out the QO candidates (Nimmo and Judge) since I strongly doubt the Sox sign anyone with a QO.

 

I do like the Benintendi suggestion for LF, with Verdugo going to RF. I see Benintendi as a lesser albeit healthier version of Nimmo and a potential leadoff hitter.

 

And Ramon Laureano is a better option.

 

I’m open to other suggestions, but I will discredit one I feel are unrealistic (like Judge) for that exact reason…

 

It's something? He should be cheaper than the other options. If Verdugo can actually stick in RF for a few years, then fine. I really didn't watch many games when Verdugo was in RF in Fenway in 2022. Did he look good? Most of the games I saw of him in RF were from 2020 when he was alright. He's a little slower footed now and his arm kinda sucks.

[mvp 78]

Verdugo in RF in 2022

DRS -4

UZR/150 -17.3

ARM -3.3

OAA -1

 

LF in 2022:

DRS: 0

UZR/150: 8.1

ARM: 1.7

OAA: -4