A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

Sano 2016: 0.6 fWAR

 

That's a no for me dawg.

 

A lot depends on defense, too.

 

I'll take .800 as a plus on O.

 

Has anyone ever had a .340 OBP and 60+ XBhs and been under .800 or 100 wRC+?

[moonslav59]

The Yankee fans I know hate Gallo with a passion and would love to see the Red Sox sign him. I'm guessing those emotions aren't because of his Gold Glove defense.

 

The problem with Gallo is that he no longer gets on base like he used to. If I knew he would get to .340, I'd take him.

 

He's been at .319 since 2020, and his .183 BA brought down his SLG to .409 ince 2020.

 

That is not the numbers I am saying can support 200 Ks.

[moonslav59]

I’m probably the biggest Gallo supporter here and I would rank him as the third best option, and even that could go down since I have no idea who besides Laureano will be available via trade.

 

Technically he’s the fifth best IMO but I took out the QO candidates (Nimmo and Judge) since I strongly doubt the Sox sign anyone with a QO.

 

I do like the Benintendi suggestion for LF, with Verdugo going to RF. I see Benintendi as a lesser albeit healthier version of Nimmo and a potential leadoff hitter.

 

And Ramon Laureano is a better option.

 

I’m open to other suggestions, but I will discredit one I feel are unrealistic (like Judge) for that exact reason…

 

Laureano has a .302 OBP since 2021 in over 750 PAs. He does not fit what you have been saying we need.

[mvp 78]

The problem with Gallo is that he no longer gets on base like he used to. If I knew he would get to .340, I'd take him.

 

He's been at .319 since 2020, and his .183 BA brought down his SLG to .409 ince 2020.

 

That is not the numbers I am saying can support 200 Ks.

 

In 21, he had a 18% bb rate, which made a big difference. He's a very confusing player.

[mvp 78]

Laureano has a .302 OBP since 2021 in over 750 PAs. He does not fit what you have been saying we need.

 

He's right handed and could be a good defender in RF.

 

Offensively, he's mediocre in just about every way.

 

In the looks department, the ladies will like him.

[moonslav59]

In 21, he had a 18% bb rate, which made a big difference. He's a very confusing player.

 

I'm not saying I love or even like high K guys, and high K guys with high OBP and power are rare, but I don't dislike a player just for having a high K rate, and since this was started over Story, I will add that he is an exceptional defender, a clear plsu on the basepaths, and has shown power and the ability to get on base near a .340 clip in his past.

 

I won't be calling Story a success, if he continues near a .300 OBP. That would make the signing a failure. He won't be hitting 45 HRs or 75+ XBhs to make up or partially make-up for a .300 OBP, either.

[moonslav59]

He's right handed and could be a good defender in RF.

 

Offensively, he's mediocre in just about every way.

 

In the looks department, the ladies will like him.

 

He'd be a nice addition, but I was wondering about notin's criteria. It seemed to be high OBP and plus RF defense. I wouldn't put him in my top 4-5 wish list additions for the OF.

[notin]

Laureano has a .302 OBP since 2021 in over 750 PAs. He does not fit what you have been saying we need.

 

Laureano is a defense-first solution.

 

He’s not ideal, but still better than most FA options…

[moonslav59]

Laureano is a defense-first solution.

 

He’s not ideal, but still better than most FA options…

 

But top 5 on your list?

 

What happened to the higher OBP aspect?

[mvp 78]

I'm not saying I love or even like high K guys, and high K guys with high OBP and power are rare, but I don't dislike a player just for having a high K rate, and since this was started over Story, I will add that he is an exceptional defender, a clear plsu on the basepaths, and has shown power and the ability to get on base near a .340 clip in his past.

 

I won't be calling Story a success, if he continues near a .300 OBP. That would make the signing a failure. He won't be hitting 45 HRs or 75+ XBhs to make up or partially make-up for a .300 OBP, either.

 

I think he could be a 30 HR, 90 RBI, 820 OPS, 3.5-4 fWAR guy. A season like that, especially the HR number, would quell some of the doubts certain folks have.

[mvp 78]

He'd be a nice addition, but I was wondering about notin's criteria. It seemed to be high OBP and plus RF defense. I wouldn't put him in my top 4-5 wish list additions for the OF.

 

Per BTV, it'd take a guy like Wikelman to get Laureano too.

[notin]

But top 5 on your list?

 

What happened to the higher OBP aspect?

 

Other than Benintendi and Nimmo, who else is available?

[notin]

Per BTV, it'd take a guy like Wikelman to get Laureano too.

 

 

Or Duran

 

I actually think Oakland might not mind Duran, but I doubt they give up Laureano for him. I doubt they pay the BTV price at all…

[moonslav59]

Other than Benintendi and Nimmo, who else is available?

 

I get your point about Laureano being almost a sure bet to be available, but there has to be more. Hell, Renfroe is apparently available. I'd take him back over Laureano, despite the worse D, higher contract cost and maybe less upside potential.

 

Your man Berti would be worth an overpay in trade.

[moonslav59]

Or Duran

 

I actually think Oakland might not mind Duran, but I doubt they give up Laureano for him. I doubt they pay the BTV price at all…

 

Duran & Dalbec. (Sub Hosmer, if they want him, instead.)

[notin]

I get your point about Laureano being almost a sure bet to be available, but there has to be more. Hell, Renfroe is apparently available. I'd take him back over Laureano, despite the worse D, higher contract cost and maybe less upside potential.

 

Your man Berti would be worth an overpay in trade.

 

 

Berti certainly has the leadoff/OBP aspect. Sox should investigate getting him, too. But as he’s not exactly costly, he’s probably not as available.

 

I don’t think he has the arm for RF, but some bodies can be rearranged…

[mvp 78]

Verdugo for Renfroe and Strzelecki (bullpen arm)

Sign Beni for LF

[mvp 78]

I get your point about Laureano being almost a sure bet to be available, but there has to be more. Hell, Renfroe is apparently available. I'd take him back over Laureano, despite the worse D, higher contract cost and maybe less upside potential.

 

Your man Berti would be worth an overpay in trade.

 

Does Laureano really have higher upside at this point AFTER HE WAS SUSPENDED FOR PED'S?

[moonslav59]

Berti certainly has the leadoff/OBP aspect. Sox should investigate getting him, too. But as he’s not exactly costly, he’s probably not as available.

 

I don’t think he has the arm for RF, but some bodies can be rearranged…

 

My point was, I'd trade more for Berti than Laureano- way more, despite the similar BTVs. That's what I meant by "costly."

[moonslav59]

Does Laureano really have higher upside at this point AFTER HE WAS SUSPENDED FOR PED'S?

 

Good point.

[notin]

I get your point about Laureano being almost a sure bet to be available, but there has to be more. Hell, Renfroe is apparently available. I'd take him back over Laureano, despite the worse D, higher contract cost and maybe less upside potential.

 

Your man Berti would be worth an overpay in trade.

 

 

If Renfroe is available, he is certainly a candidate. And things worked out pretty well with him in 2021.

 

So, in no order, the (non-QO) OF candidates named so far:

 

Gallo

Haniger

Benintendi

Berti

Laureano

Renfroe

 

With likely QOs, there is Nimmo and Judge.

 

Anyone else? New or forgotten?

[harmony]

If Renfroe is available, he is certainly a candidate. And things worked out pretty well with him in 2021.

 

So, in no order, the (non-QO) OF candidates named so far:

 

Gallo

Haniger

Benintendi

Berti

Laureano

Renfroe

 

With likely QOs, there is Nimmo and Judge.

 

Anyone else? New or forgotten?

Michael Conforto

Joc Pederson

Cody Bellinger if non-tendered by Dodgers

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If Renfroe is available, he is certainly a candidate. And things worked out pretty well with him in 2021.

 

So, in no order, the (non-QO) OF candidates named so far:

 

Gallo

Haniger

Benintendi

Berti

Laureano

Renfroe

 

With likely QOs, there is Nimmo and Judge.

 

Anyone else? New or forgotten?

 

Some trade candidates whose availability BTV classifies as "medium" in order of "value" (cost for us):

 

Bryan Reynolds -- the most costly, good bat, negative dWAR;

Taylor Ward -- classic sell-high guy, coming off career O year for perennial also-ran, another negative dWAR;

Tyler O'Neil -- coming off a crappy year after 34 dingers and a .900+ in '21, bats RIGHT, plays LF, valued below Nootbar (St. Louis is going to trade some outfielder); Adolis Garcia -- all-or-nothing Ranger, "high" availability;

Jack Suwinski -- another Pirate, all-or-nothing but age 23 and his 19 HRs were more than any Sox except Devers, BL;

Mike Yaz -- 31 years old already... or maybe we'd be better off instead with

Trent Grisham, who is 25, but also all-or-nothing... though he does have 20 longballs, including 3 in the playoffs so far...

 

Teoscar Hernandez is also on the list with a low value for some reason -- Sox would take a recent two-time Silver Slugger in a second.

 

A lot of big whiffers on this list, but none we'd have to give up top prospects for, except Reynolds.

[moonslav59]

Another option might be to take on a contract like Avisail Garcia, who could be an OF'er with bounce back possibilities as a way to lessen what we'd need to give Miami for one of their SP'ers.

[mvp 78]

Other "notables" or NOT-ables depending:

Kiermaier

Myers

[mvp 78]

Some trade candidates whose availability BTV classifies as "medium" in order of "value" (cost for us):

 

Bryan Reynolds -- the most costly, good bat, negative dWAR;

Taylor Ward -- classic sell-high guy, coming off career O year for perennial also-ran, another negative dWAR;

Tyler O'Neil -- coming off a crappy year after 34 dingers and a .900+ in '21, bats RIGHT, plays LF, valued below Nootbar (St. Louis is going to trade some outfielder); Adolis Garcia -- all-or-nothing Ranger, "high" availability;

Jack Suwinski -- another Pirate, all-or-nothing but age 23 and his 19 HRs were more than any Sox except Devers, BL;

Mike Yaz -- 31 years old already... or maybe we'd be better off instead with

Trent Grisham, who is 25, but also all-or-nothing... though he does have 20 longballs, including 3 in the playoffs so far...

 

Teoscar Hernandez is also on the list with a low value for some reason -- Sox would take a recent two-time Silver Slugger in a second.

 

A lot of big whiffers on this list, but none we'd have to give up top prospects for, except Reynolds.

 

Bryan Reynolds has 3 years of control left and could be a good fit, but it would take a trade of approx: Houck, Yorke and Rafaela.

 

Garcia would love hitting at Fenway, but just isn't a high OBP guy. Unsure about his fit with Bloom.

 

Yaz2 is about as slow as Verdugo and has a much weaker arm. If you paired him and Beni in the OF, runners would just circle the bases.

[notin]

Some trade candidates whose availability BTV classifies as "medium" in order of "value" (cost for us):

 

Bryan Reynolds -- the most costly, good bat, negative dWAR;

Taylor Ward -- classic sell-high guy, coming off career O year for perennial also-ran, another negative dWAR;

Tyler O'Neil -- coming off a crappy year after 34 dingers and a .900+ in '21, bats RIGHT, plays LF, valued below Nootbar (St. Louis is going to trade some outfielder); Adolis Garcia -- all-or-nothing Ranger, "high" availability;

Jack Suwinski -- another Pirate, all-or-nothing but age 23 and his 19 HRs were more than any Sox except Devers, BL;

Mike Yaz -- 31 years old already... or maybe we'd be better off instead with

Trent Grisham, who is 25, but also all-or-nothing... though he does have 20 longballs, including 3 in the playoffs so far...

 

Teoscar Hernandez is also on the list with a low value for some reason -- Sox would take a recent two-time Silver Slugger in a second.

 

A lot of big whiffers on this list, but none we'd have to give up top prospects for, except Reynolds.

 

Why does St. Louis need to trade an outfielder?

 

O’Neill is a surprisingly good defensive OF, but not sure where their stack up is.

 

Grisham is a lights out defender, but struggles offensively save the occasional hot stretch.

 

Not sure how available Ward and Suwinski are…

[notin]

Another option might be to take on a contract like Avisail Garcia, who could be an OF'er with bounce back possibilities as a way to lessen what we'd need to give Miami for one of their SP'ers.

 

Avisail Garcia hasn’t been very good since 2017. Not sure how far back off a bounce is to be expected.

 

Plus his contract has 3 yrs $41mill left on it. Might s well just get a free agent pitcher and NOT watch this guy Pretend to Defend out there…

[mvp 78]

Why does St. Louis need to trade an outfielder?

 

O’Neill is a surprisingly good defensive OF, but not sure where their stack up is.

 

Grisham is a lights out defender, but struggles offensively save the occasional hot stretch.

 

Not sure how available Ward and Suwinski are…

 

Sox should ask the the Dodgers if Betts is available. That contract is awfully large. Maybe they'd eat some of it?

[mvp 78]

Avisail Garcia hasn’t been very good since 2017. Not sure how far back off a bounce is to be expected.

 

Plus his contract has 3 yrs $41mill left on it. Might s well just get a free agent pitcher and NOT watch this guy Pretend to Defend out there…

 

He's been mentioned by moon a few times. I don't see it either. $13M isn't a lot of money, but he's not a consistent 2 fWAR guy. He k's a lot. He doesn't walk. His defense is fair. He has a strong arm. His whiff rate is just embarrassing. He's just a worse version of Hunter Renfroe for more money.