A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

Why not make the OF a STRENGTH rather than just NOT AT HIGH NEED AREA?

 

I'dl ike to fill our higher need areas first. If you think 4th OF'er is more important than deepening the pen, fine, but we can't do it all. If we try to do it all, we'll end up with mediocrity in many slots.

[moonslav59]

Why not make the OF a STRENGTH rather than just NOT AT HIGH NEED AREA?

 

LF Dugo

CF Kike

RF Nimmo

OF Ref

 

Should be a strength.

[notin]

Why not make the OF a STRENGTH rather than just NOT AT HIGH NEED AREA?

 

LF Dugo

CF Kike

RF Nimmo

OF Ref

 

Should be a strength.

 

I like that OF.

 

But I doubt the Sox sign Nimmo if he gets a QO, as it would cost then two draft picks. In which case, who’s Plan B?

[moonslav59]

I like that OF.

 

But I doubt the Sox sign Nimmo if he gets a QO, as it would cost then two draft picks. In which case, who’s Plan B?

 

Maybe Beni or a trade.

 

My point is, I'd rather spend on a solid OF'er than less on one, so we can maybe upgrade on Ref for a 4th OF'er. I say maybe, because it's not a sure bet Myers will do better than Ref.

[mvp 78]

LF Dugo

CF Kike

RF Nimmo

OF Ref

 

Should be a strength.

 

If Refsnyder plays like 2022, sure. It's not a given.

[mvp 78]

Maybe Beni or a trade.

 

My point is, I'd rather spend on a solid OF'er than less on one, so we can maybe upgrade on Ref for a 4th OF'er. I say maybe, because it's not a sure bet Myers will do better than Ref.

 

I never said Myers was just the 4th OFer, but go off.

[moonslav59]

I touched on this earlier, but to me, whether we spend big, moderately or skimp, we will likely leave at least one or two positions untouched. In theory, one would think we'd choose the 1-3 slots we think are stronger than the others and fill in the most needy slots, first. If we have promising ML ready or near ready prospects at some slots, we may neglect those or just go for a one year signing to carry us over.

 

Here are the slots that are in need of filling or upgrading. Some, like SP and RP'er may be tweaked, once we know if Whitlock and Houck will be starters or relievers.

 

SS: (Story? Then, we need 2B), (Kike? Then, we need CF), Arroyo, Downs

SP: Sale, Bello, Pivetta, (Whitlock, Houck?), Crawford, Winckowski, Seabold (AAA/MLB? Mata, Walter, Murphy)

RP: (Whitlock, Houck?), Schreiber, Barnes, Taylor, Kelly, Brasier/Danish/McGee/Reed (AAA/MLB? German, Bazardo, Ort, Politi)

RF: (Dugo? Then, we need LF) Refsnyder, Cordero & Duran (LF) (Rafaela/Abreu)

C: McGuire, Wong (RHern/Hamilton)

1B: Casas, Hosmer, Dalbec

DH: Hosmer, Dalbec, Arroyo, Refsnyder, EValdez (Pham?)

4th OF: (Refsnyder, if we add a starting OF'er) Cordero, Duran

 

I listed these slots in about the order I think the greatest needs are. Top= most urgent.

 

 

Edited October 19, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

I never said Myers was just the 4th OFer, but go off.

 

Earlier, I wrote 4th OF'er/part time DH, but go off.

[mvp 78]

Earlier, I wrote 4th OF'er/part time DH, but go off.

 

I always do.

[mvp 78]

I touched on this earlier, but to me, whether we spend big, moderately or skimp, we will likely leave at least one or two positions untouched. In theory, one would think we'd choose the 1-3 slots we think are stronger than the others and fill in the most needy slots, first. If we have promising ML ready or near ready prospects at some slots, we may neglect those or just go for a one year signing to carry us over.

 

Here are the slots that are in need of filling or upgrading. Some, like SP and RP'er may be tweaked, once we know if Whitlock and Houck will be starters or relievers.

 

SS: (Story? Then, we need 2B), (Kike? Then, we need CF), Arroyo, Downs

SP: Sale, Bello, Pivetta, (Whitlock, Houck?), Crawford, Winckowski, Seabold (AAA/MLB? Mata, Walter, Murphy)

RP: (Whitlock, Houck?), Schreiber, Barnes, Taylor, Kelly, Brasier/Danish/McGee/Reed (AAA/MLB? German, Bazardo, Ort, Politi)

RF: (Dugo? Then, we need LF) Refsnyder, Cordero & Duran (LF) (Rafaela/Abreu)

C: McGuire, Wong (RHern/Hamilton)

1B: Casas, Hosmer, Dalbec

4th OF: (Refsnyder, if we add a starting OF'er) Cordero, Duran

 

I listed these slots in about the order I think the greatest needs are. Top= most urgent.

 

 

 

I think C is a position that you can upgrade on pretty cheaply so I don't think that impacts the budget all that much. I'm not sure I'd add anything to 1B except for a platoon RHB to DH and play other positions a la Wil Myers, Mancini or someone else. If they passed on adding there, it's not the end of the world this season. I think Dalbec as a platoon only against tough LHP is fine at 1B.

[moonslav59]

I think C is a position that you can upgrade on pretty cheaply so I don't think that impacts the budget all that much. I'm not sure I'd add anything to 1B except for a platoon RHB to DH and play other positions a la Wil Myers, Mancini or someone else. If they passed on adding there, it's not the end of the world this season. I think Dalbec as a platoon only against tough LHP is fine at 1B.

 

Yes, I think we leave the bottom 3 slots I listed "untouched," or we add a cheap depth kind of player.

Edited October 19, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

If we go with what we got at 1B and DH, we have a lot of choices, but many are not too encouraging, and there is not room for all of them on the 26.

 

LHB

Casas 1B/DH

Hosmer DH/1B

E Valdez 2B/DH (AAA)

Cordero DH/LF (AAA)

Duran LF/DH (AAA)

W Abreu OF/DH (AAA- may not be ML ready until mid season)

 

RHB

Dalbec DH/1B/3B (2B?) (??AAA??)

Refsnyder RF/DH

Arroyo 2B/3B/SS/DH

 

If Rafaela ever gets called up, maybe Dugo can DH some.

[notin]

I think C is a position that you can upgrade on pretty cheaply so I don't think that impacts the budget all that much. I'm not sure I'd add anything to 1B except for a platoon RHB to DH and play other positions a la Wil Myers, Mancini or someone else. If they passed on adding there, it's not the end of the world this season. I think Dalbec as a platoon only against tough LHP is fine at 1B.

 

Why would the Sox spend $10mill to get Wil Myers and his .804 OPS vs LHP when Dalbec and his .855 OPS vs LHP are already on board at league minimum?

[moonslav59]

Why would the Sox spend $10mill to get Wil Myers and his .804 OPS vs LHP when Dalbec and his .855 OPS vs LHP are already on board at league minimum?

 

His great versatility.

[moonslav59]

Why would the Sox spend $10mill to get Wil Myers and his .804 OPS vs LHP when Dalbec and his .855 OPS vs LHP are already on board at league minimum?

 

2021-2022 v LHPs

 

.901 Refsnyder (137 PAs)

 

2020-2022

 

.867 Refsynder (158 PAs)

 

2018-2020

 

.800 Refsnyder (220 PAs)

 

Edited October 19, 2022 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Why would the Sox spend $10mill to get Wil Myers and his .804 OPS vs LHP when Dalbec and his .855 OPS vs LHP are already on board at league minimum?

 

Myers is a better 1b and can play OF. In fact, he has a better DRS at 3b than Dalbec too.

 

Dalbec's OPS last season vs RHP was 754, lower than Myers' .815.

 

Myers is far better baserunner.

 

Dalbec's has a career 1.1 fWAR. Myers has had at least 1.0 fWAR in every season since 2015 except for one season.

[mvp 78]

2021-2022 v LHPs

 

.901 Refsnyder (137 PAs)

 

2020-2022

 

.867 Refsynder (158 PAs)

 

2018-2020

 

.800 Refsnyder (220 PAs)

 

 

When you keep adding PA's, it keeps going down? Interesting! I wonder why?

[mvp 78]

His great versatility.

 

Yes, it's why Kiké gets paid 10M.

[moonslav59]

When you keep adding PA's, it keeps going down? Interesting! I wonder why?

 

.800 from 2018 is pretty good, and I'd rather have a r trending upwards than the other way.

 

I'm not totally sold on Ref, but I do think he has earned a spot of the 26 as our 4th OF'er and possible platoon RF'er or DH. It would not upset me, if he starts the year in AAA, either, but I think we need to target our spending on 5-6 key slots and not spread the money around on mediocrity.

 

[moonslav59]

If we go with what we got at 1B and DH, we have a lot of choices, but many are not too encouraging, and there is not room for all of them on the 26.

 

LHB

Casas 1B/DH

Hosmer DH/1B

E Valdez 2B/DH (AAA)

Cordero DH/LF (AAA)

Duran LF/DH (AAA)

W Abreu OF/DH (AAA- may not be ML ready until mid season)

 

RHB

Dalbec DH/1B/3B (2B?) (??AAA??)

Refsnyder RF/DH

Arroyo 2B/3B/SS/DH

 

If Casas plays near FT at 1B, are the rest of these guys good enough to keep us respectable at DH?

[iortiz]

One of our biggest problems was at 1B offensively and defensively. Wonder whether they going to address this, Casas is still a project.

[mvp 78]

If Casas plays near FT at 1B, are the rest of these guys good enough to keep us respectable at DH?

 

Hosmer/Dalbec/Refsnyder? Maybe, but it depends on what good enough is?

 

Cordero? No.

 

Valdez? Who knows?

 

Arroyo? Don't complain about mediocrity and then use Arroyo as a solution to anything.

[mvp 78]

One of our biggest problems was at 1B offensively and defensively. Wonder whether they going to address this, Casas is still a project.

 

If your #1/2 prospect is planning on getting fulltime reps at a position, you aren't going to spend much $$$ on a backup.

[moonslav59]

Hosmer/Dalbec/Refsnyder? Maybe, but it depends on what good enough is?

 

Cordero? No.

 

Valdez? Who knows?

 

Arroyo? Don't complain about mediocrity and then use Arroyo as a solution to anything.

 

Arroyo has done fine, when healthy. In the rotation/platoon I am talking about (not advocating for) would not really "count on him," since we have several other options to go with.

 

One issue is we can't have 6 guys on the bench rotating at DH. It will have to be 3, with one being a back up OF'er (Refsnyder?) and one bing a back up infielder (Arroyo, when healthy or maybe EValdez) plus Dalbec or Hosmer, and since Hosmer is a lefty bat, it would likely be him. (Dalbec, Valdez & Ref have options.)

 

I'd love to improve on our .763 DH OPS, this year, but if we can greatly improve RF, stay even at SS and see Kike return to near 2021 levels, we may be able to afford just coming close to .763 in 2022.

 

Can this combo give us .763 or better?

 

Hosmer v R

 

Ref/Arroyo v L

 

I think it's a close call. I'd love to improve on it, but we may not have enough resources to fill every wish on the wish list.

[moonslav59]

If your #1/2 prospect is planning on getting fulltime reps at a position, you aren't going to spend much $$$ on a backup.

 

I don't think we should spend much money on a 1Bman, but since we also could use help at DH, maybe we try to sign an aging, low-cost vet who can play 1B or maybe even 1B and RF, but primarily be the DH or platoon DH.

[oldtimer]

I don't think we should spend much money on a 1Bman, but since we also could use help at DH, maybe we try to sign an aging, low-cost vet who can play 1B or maybe even 1B and RF, but primarily be the DH or platoon DH.

 

I wouldn't mind signing Mancini for a combination, 1st base backup, DH and RF. He might cost more than you would like but his versatility and veteran ability would make us more competitive. That would also allow us to trade away Dalbec an Cordero.

[mvp 78]

I think it's a close call. I'd love to improve on it, but we may not have enough resources to fill every wish on the wish list.

 

Why not? They need to reset for the 3rd time in 4 years?

[mvp 78]

I don't think we should spend much money on a 1Bman, but since we also could use help at DH, maybe we try to sign an aging, low-cost vet who can play 1B or maybe even 1B and RF, but primarily be the DH or platoon DH.

 

Go get Wil Myers.

[mvp 78]

I wouldn't mind signing Mancini for a combination, 1st base backup, DH and RF. He might cost more than you would like but his versatility and veteran ability would make us more competitive. That would also allow us to trade away Dalbec an Cordero.

 

Mancini is ok, but I think his contract will be more than his production. 1.5 fWAR the past 2 seasons total. He also could not play RF in Fenway.

[moonslav59]

Why not? They need to reset for the 3rd time in 4 years?

 

I'm going on the assumption that even if we don't reset, we'll stay near the tax line, as we usually do.

 

IMO, it also makes more sense to re-set, this year than in 2024, when devers is due, and we have more young players to improve our foundation, thereby making 2024 more of an "all in" year than 2023, but that's just my opinion.