A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

And I remain high…

 

I fixed your post for you.

[notin]

I fixed your post for you.

 

So you prefer Haniger, whose a worse defender and gets on base less often? And somehow I’m the one whose high?

 

I suppose Haniger’s saving grace I guess is that at least he only brings his lesser defense and offense for maybe 70 games a year, freeing up a lot more playing time for someone who can make fewer outs with the bat and more with the glove…

[moonslav59]

So you prefer Haniger, whose a worse defender and gets on base less often? And somehow I’m the one whose high?

 

I suppose Haniger’s saving grace I guess is that at least he only brings his lesser defense and offense for maybe 70 games a year, freeing up a lot more playing time for someone who can make fewer outs with the bat and more with the glove…

 

I don't want either, and it's a close call.

[notin]

I don't want either, and it's a close call.

 

From the FA outfielder crowd, my rankings are

 

1. Nimmo

2. Gallo

3. Conforto. I suppose I could live with this choice, assuming his price has come down.

4. No one

[Larry Cook]

From the FA outfielder crowd, my rankings are

 

1. Nimmo

2. Gallo

3. Conforto. I suppose I could live with this choice, assuming his price has come down.

4. No one

 

These choices are weak. Let’s discuss trade options!

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

These choices are weak. Let’s discuss trade options!

 

St. Louis has too many young hitters; perhaps they can be persuaded to shed some for young pitching...

 

Houck, Gonzalez and Duran for Lars Nootbar, good RF with some pop and a .340 OBP.

 

However, Bloom may prefer the more versatile Brendan Donovan, who plays infield and outfield; his .394 OBP was fourth in the big leagues, behind Judge, Yordan and Soto.

 

But if the Cards insist on Donovan instead of Nootbar, the Sox must demand they throw in Juan ("Gone") Yepez...

[Bellhorn04]

These choices are weak. Let’s discuss trade options!

 

Nimmo is far from weak.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

From the FA outfielder crowd, my rankings are

 

1. Nimmo

2. Gallo

3. Conforto. I suppose I could live with this choice, assuming his price has come down.

4. No one

 

I'm all out on Gallo: 1,465 combined strikeouts and walks in 2,811 career plate appearances means in over half his times up he hasn't even touched the ball.

 

That's not going to help the AL's most losingest team in extra innings -- you know, the one absolutely petrified with disturbing the ghost runner on second.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm all out on Gallo: 1,465 combined strikeouts and walks in 2,811 career plate appearances means in over half his times up he hasn't even touched the ball.

 

That's not going to help the AL's most losingest team in extra innings -- you know, the one absolutely petrified with disturbing the ghost runner on second.

 

Moving the ghost runner from second to third by way of an out is generally a bad play unless it's a really weak hitter at the plate.

 

Teams scored an average of 1.38 runs in extra innings this year. So playing for and scoring one run would frequently have resulted in a loss anyway.

[Bellhorn04]

As for Gallo, his career OBP of .325 is OK, but that career BA of .199 is bloody awful alright.

 

Compare him to another Three Outcomes guy, Adam Dunn:

 

Gallo 199/325/469/794 OPS+ 109

Dunn 237/364/490/854 OPS+ 124

[harmony]

From the FA outfielder crowd, my rankings are

 

1. Nimmo

2. Gallo

3. Conforto. I suppose I could live with this choice, assuming his price has come down.

4. No one

The "No one" presumably includes outfielder Wil Myers, whose $20 million team option is likely to be declined by the San Diego Padres.

[notin]

As for Gallo, his career OBP of .325 is OK, but that career BA of .199 is bloody awful alright.

 

Compare him to another Three Outcomes guy, Adam Dunn:

 

Gallo 199/325/469/794 OPS+ 109

Dunn 237/364/490/854 OPS+ 124

 

Nobody is saying Gallo is the answer; just that he’s a better answer than most of the free agent market.

[moonslav59]

We know our team's attraction to plus RF defense and not caring too much about high K guys, if they can get on base enough or hit 30+ bombs, so we may settle for Gallo.

 

We aren't the only team in need of a CF/RF'er, and Nimmo will have a lot of teams in on the bidding.

[harmony]

St. Louis has too many young hitters; perhaps they can be persuaded to shed some for young pitching...

 

Houck, Gonzalez and Duran for Lars Nootbar, good RF with some pop and a .340 OBP.

 

However, Bloom may prefer the more versatile Brendan Donovan, who plays infield and outfield; his .394 OBP was fourth in the big leagues, behind Judge, Yordan and Soto.

 

But if the Cards insist on Donovan instead of Nootbar, the Sox must demand they throw in Juan ("Gone") Yepez...

To be precise: This year's on-base percentage leaders were Aaron Judge (.425), Freddie Freeman (.407), Yordan Alvarez (.406), Paul Goldschmidt (.404), Yandy Diaz (.401) and Juan Soto (.401):

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=14,d

[harmony]

Nimmo is far from weak.

Gotta pull for the rare player from Wyoming.

 

As a baseball fan for six years in Wyoming this poster got to cheer for native sons in lefthander Tom Browning, who tossed a perfect game, and outfielder Mike Devereaux, who once finished seventh in the AL MVP voting.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/b/brownto05.shtml

 

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/d/devermi01.shtml

[notin]

I'm all out on Gallo: 1,465 combined strikeouts and walks in 2,811 career plate appearances means in over half his times up he hasn't even touched the ball.

 

That's not going to help the AL's most losingest team in extra innings -- you know, the one absolutely petrified with disturbing the ghost runner on second.

 

 

“He walks too much. I want more weak ground outs to second.”

[notin]

We know our team's attraction to plus RF defense and not caring too much about high K guys, if they can get on base enough or hit 30+ bombs, so we may settle for Gallo.

 

We aren't the only team in need of a CF/RF'er, and Nimmo will have a lot of teams in on the bidding.

 

Not sure who the trade market has left, but one likely candidate is a Oakland’s Ramon Laureano…

[notin]

St. Louis has too many young hitters; perhaps they can be persuaded to shed some for young pitching...

 

Houck, Gonzalez and Duran for Lars Nootbar, good RF with some pop and a .340 OBP.

 

However, Bloom may prefer the more versatile Brendan Donovan, who plays infield and outfield; his .394 OBP was fourth in the big leagues, behind Judge, Yordan and Soto.

 

But if the Cards insist on Donovan instead of Nootbar, the Sox must demand they throw in Juan ("Gone") Yepez...

 

I do doubt the Cardinals go for that (I’m guessing BTV-approved) package, especially given Houck’s back surgery and that nobody loves Duran. (Not saying Houck won’t get traded, but not for a rookie with serious potential and a comical name like Nootbaar.) But I could see Donovan - with his lovely North Boston name - being a target for the Sox, although probably not for RF.

 

And St. Louis might be wise to sell, as Donovan’s trade value is through the roof after his stellar season…

Edited October 15, 2022 by notin

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

To be precise: This year's on-base percentage leaders were Aaron Judge (.425), Freddie Freeman (.407), Yordan Alvarez (.406), Paul Goldschmidt (.404), Yandy Diaz (.401) and Juan Soto (.401):

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2022&month=0&season1=2022&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2022-01-01&enddate=2022-12-31&sort=14,d

 

For the discussion about outfielders potentially available to join new clubs, the following data includes players in a minimum of 100 big league games who played outfield in 2022.:

 

Judge, Alvarez, Soto, Donovan, McNeil, Benintendi, Kwan, Trout, Moore, Canha/Nimmo (tied for 10th at .367).

[moonslav59]

For the discussion about outfielders potentially available to join new clubs, the following data includes players in a minimum of 100 big league games who played outfield in 2022.:

 

Judge, Alvarez, Soto, Donovan, McNeil, Benintendi, Kwan, Trout, Moore, Canha/Nimmo (tied for 10th at .367).

 

It's weird nobody is saying we should bring Beni back and put Dugu in RF.

[harmony]

It's weird nobody is saying we should bring Beni back and put Dugu in RF.

Sportrac has Andrew Benintendi with a market value of six years and $104 million:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/market-value/outfield/

[moonslav59]

Sportrac has Andrew Benintendi with a market value of six years and $104 million:

 

https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/market-value/outfield/

 

That's far below my highest, which might be $40M/4.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's weird nobody is saying we should bring Beni back and put Dugu in RF.

 

Sox can use an outfielder like the 20-20 Beni at the beginning of his career... but the '22 version only had a slugging percentage of .399, which is just below Steven Kwan's .400 and Verdugo's .405.

 

Part of the problem in Boston is that they need more outfield production than the average Verdugo type.

[notin]

Sox can use an outfielder like the 20-20 Beni at the beginning of his career... but the '22 version only had a slugging percentage of .399, which is just below Steven Kwan's .400 and Verdugo's .405.

 

Part of the problem in Boston is that they need more outfield production than the average Verdugo type.

 

You’re not exactly dissuading me from Gallo, who slugged .458 with 38HRs in 2021…

[moonslav59]

Sox can use an outfielder like the 20-20 Beni at the beginning of his career... but the '22 version only had a slugging percentage of .399, which is just below Steven Kwan's .400 and Verdugo's .405.

 

Part of the problem in Boston is that they need more outfield production than the average Verdugo type.

 

We need higher OBP, too.

 

While .321 placed us 6th, I've always felt a higher OBP is more valuable than a higher SLG%.

 

(We were 9th in SLG at .409.)

[moonslav59]

Our best OBP in 2022 (Red = FA, option or gone)

 

.384 Refsnyder (probably due for a decline)

.377 Bogey

.377 McGuire (Will not repeat this)

.358 Devers (Could improve)

.358 Casas (looking good!)

.341 JD

.328 Verdugo (can improve)

.327 Vaz

.322 Arroyo (about right)

.320 Hosmer (about right)

.303 Story (hope he can improve by 30-50)

.300 Cordero (should not repeat 275 PAs)

.298 Pham

.297 Almonte

.291 Kike (should improve and get more PAs)

.283 Dalbec (will not get 353 PAs)

.283 Duran (should not get 223 PAs)

.273 Wong (hard to project)

.257 JBJ

.171 Downs (may not make the bigs, again)

 

Top SLG%

.521 Devers (should improve)

.500 McGuire (.400 might be what is expected)

.497 Refsnyder (over his head?)

.456 Bogey

.448 JD

.434 Story (hope can get over .480)

.432 Vaz

.414 Casas (can improve)

.408 Verdugo (should improve)

.400 Almonte

.397 Cordero

.374 Pham

.369 Dalbec

.363 Duran

.338 Kike (must improve)

.321 JBJ

.313 Wong

.311 Hosmer

.287 Plawecki

.256 Downs

[moonslav59]

Much of the thoughts have focused on how we can replace Bogey and JD's production in 2023. Bringing Bogey back would help, for sure. Replacing JD's .790 OPS in 2022 might not be real hard, but even .790 can be costly.

 

There is another way to look at 2023, too. It's looking at who we can expect will bounce back and which lower producing players should be getting less or no PAs, next year.

 

Not so easy to replace:

.833 Bogey 631 PAs

.790 JD 596 PAs

.759 Vaz 318 PAs

 

Who should/might improve :

(OPS/PAs) The team OPS was .731 in 2022.

.766 Casas 95 (could get 400+ more PAs)

.737 Stroy 396 (may get 200+ PAs more)

.736 Arroyo 300

.732 Dugo 644

.629 Kike 402

 

Who will get more PAs but will not likely repeat their OPS (but could be over .731):

.881 Refsnyder

.877 McGuire

 

Who should get less, way less or no PAs:

.697 Corderp 275

.672 Pham 235

.652 Dalbec 353

.645 Duran 223

.578 JBJ 290

.574 Plawecki 175

.427 Downs 41

.322 Sanchez 44

.000 Shaw & Arauz 31

This is about 1600 PAs or pathetic hitting that should be gone or greatly lessened.

[notin]

We need higher OBP, too.

 

While .321 placed us 6th, I've always felt a higher OBP is more valuable than a higher SLG%.

 

(We were 9th in SLG at .409.)

 

 

Exactly.

 

Pitching, defense and OBP. In whatever order you like…

[moonslav59]

Exactly.

 

Pitching, defense and OBP. In whatever order you like…

 

So, if it's mostly about OBP, how would you feel about Beni in LF and Dugo in RF?

 

Would the poor D outweigh the supposed boost in OF OBP? (Ref could be the 4th OF'er.)

[notin]

So, if it's mostly about OBP, how would you feel about Beni in LF and Dugo in RF?

 

Would the poor D outweigh the supposed boost in OF OBP? (Ref could be the 4th OF'er.)

 

There is a balance.

 

I’m not opposed to that alignment. I’m also not sure I’d call it “poor D”.” Benintendi is a good LF

Edited October 16, 2022 by notin