A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

Avisail Garcia hasn’t been very good since 2017. Not sure how far back off a bounce is to be expected.

 

Plus his contract has 3 yrs $41mill left on it. Might s well just get a free agent pitcher and NOT watch this guy Pretend to Defend out there…

 

1. It's not about Garcia and his contract. The money we pay him is really for the cheap pitcher we get in the deal, and the reduced return package you have to give up to get a solid SP'er, because we take on Garcia's contract.

2. Garcia would likely play LF in Fenway with Dugo in RF- not ideal, but with Ref as the 4th OF'er, maybe we'd be okay.

3. While not great, Garcia did have an OPS+ of 112 in 2019 and 119 in '21. There is some hope for a moderate bounce back to a near 115 OPS+ level, which would be a huge upgrade over our OF OPS+ in 2022.

[moonslav59]

He's been mentioned by moon a few times. I don't see it either. $13M isn't a lot of money, but he's not a consistent 2 fWAR guy. He k's a lot. He doesn't walk. His defense is fair. He has a strong arm. His whiff rate is just embarrassing. He's just a worse version of Hunter Renfroe for more money.

 

If it comes down to paying for deGrom and Beni or Wacha and Nimmo, Lopez and Garcia would be way cheaper and shouldn't cost a major prospect to land. The money "saved" could be used to sign another pitcher or a catcher. Or, the saved money could be used towards signing Bogey not Swanson or adding to the offer for Devers.

 

Again, it's not about any love for Garcia, but he would be an upgrade over JBJ/Duran and net us a cheap SP'er.

[notin]

He's been mentioned by moon a few times. I don't see it either. $13M isn't a lot of money, but he's not a consistent 2 fWAR guy. He k's a lot. He doesn't walk. His defense is fair. He has a strong arm. His whiff rate is just embarrassing. He's just a worse version of Hunter Renfroe for more money.

 

With Garcia, the three years bothers me more than the $41mill

[mvp 78]

1. It's not about Garcia and his contract. The money we pay him is really for the cheap pitcher we get in the deal, and the reduced return package you have to give up to get a solid SP'er, because we take on Garcia's contract.

2. Garcia would likely play LF in Fenway with Dugo in RF- not ideal, but with Ref as the 4th OF'er, maybe we'd be okay.

3. While not great, Garcia did have an OPS+ of 112 in 2019 and 119 in '21. There is some hope for a moderate bounce back to a near 115 OPS+ level, which would be a huge upgrade over our OF OPS+ in 2022.

 

1. You still want to get under the luxury tax this season, so why have players on your roster that are overpaid? Sox need to get out of the habit of doing that.

2. Verdugo's advanced metrics from RF last season are NOT good. He probably needs to be put back in LF unless the Sox are going to punt on OF defense.

3. His career OPS+ is 101 which is a far more likely scenario for his age 32 season, but the risk of further 66 seasons is high.

[mvp 78]

With Garcia, the three years bothers me more than the $41mill

 

Yes, if it's one season, it's no big deal. Him and Soler would be on the books/bench for a while.

[mvp 78]

If it comes down to paying for deGrom and Beni or Wacha and Nimmo, Lopez and Garcia would be way cheaper and shouldn't cost a major prospect to land. The money "saved" could be used to sign another pitcher or a catcher. Or, the saved money could be used towards signing Bogey not Swanson or adding to the offer for Devers.

 

Again, it's not about any love for Garcia, but he would be an upgrade over JBJ/Duran and net us a cheap SP'er.

 

They aren't signing deGrom. They most likely aren't signing Nimmo either. Garcia is "cheaper" to acquire because he kinda stinks. This is a "spending money to save money move" thing? Is Beni going to get much more than $13M AAV? I'd rather have him than Garcia for sure. Bring him and Bogey back and it's an olive branch to the fans.

[oldtimer]

They aren't signing deGrom. They most likely aren't signing Nimmo either. Garcia is "cheaper" to acquire because he kinda stinks. This is a "spending money to save money move" thing? Is Beni going to get much more than $13M AAV? I'd rather have him than Garcia for sure. Bring him and Bogey back and it's an olive branch to the fans.

 

I'd like Bogey back for several reasons but was reading that Boras is likely to delay any decision until close to Spring Training trying to squeeze the last penny out of any contract for him. If he does that, it could leave the Sox high and dry and without an alternative. I would offer Bogey a competitive contract and stick with it. If there is no movement by the end of the Winter meetings I would look elsewhere.

[mvp 78]

I'd like Bogey back for several reasons but was reading that Boras is likely to delay any decision until close to Spring Training trying to squeeze the last penny out of any contract for him. If he does that, it could leave the Sox high and dry and without an alternative. I would offer Bogey a competitive contract and stick with it. If there is no movement by the end of the Winter meetings I would look elsewhere.

 

Step 1: Make Bogey a competitive offer.

Step 2: Sign Jose Iglesias for a cheap one year deal.

Step 3: Leave the door open and wait to see if the Bogey market ever materializes.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'd like Bogey back for several reasons but was reading that Boras is likely to delay any decision until close to Spring Training trying to squeeze the last penny out of any contract for him. If he does that, it could leave the Sox high and dry and without an alternative. I would offer Bogey a competitive contract and stick with it. If there is no movement by the end of the Winter meetings I would look elsewhere.

 

Wait until the last minute? What self-respecting Chief Baseball Officer would accept that strategy? Don't tell me you think there's a GM type guy who may actually use the stalling of his main target's decision as an excuse for not making any other big moves all winter? By the time Bogey finally signs, all the best available starting pitchers, relievers and power hitters may already have new homes... oh.

[moonslav59]

Wait until the last minute? What self-respecting Chief Baseball Officer would accept that strategy? Don't tell me you think there's a GM type guy who may actually use the stalling of his main target's decision as an excuse for not making any other big moves all winter? By the time Bogey finally signs, all the best available starting pitchers, relievers and power hitters may already have new homes... oh.

 

Hardly any big moves are made before the winter meetings, anymore.

 

I agree on making him a solid and fair offer. Tell him it's on the table, even after Free Agency opens up, but that we may sign someone else at any moment, and the offer will vanish.

 

Make it a fair offer and if he gets overpaid by some other GM, so be it. Just have a solid plan B and C.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Hardly any big moves are made before the winter meetings, anymore.

 

I agree on making him a solid and fair offer. Tell him it's on the table, even after Free Agency opens up, but that we may sign someone else at any moment, and the offer will vanish.

 

Make it a fair offer and if he gets overpaid by some other GM, so be it. Just have a solid plan B and C.

 

The front office knows all about Boras' methods. They're smart enough to have already been prepared to move on from Bogey since Spring Feigning (their lowball offer).

 

Xander giving another hometown discount and/or telling Boras to get it done before Christmas may actually be Bloom's Plan C or D.

[moonslav59]

The front office knows all about Boras' methods. They're smart enough to have already been prepared to move on from Bogey since Spring Feigning (their lowball offer).

 

Xander giving another hometown discount and/or telling Boras to get it done before Christmas may actually be Bloom's Plan C or D.

 

I think we will make a solid offer, and it will be made public. It may be an offer they know Bogey & BorA$$ will refuse, and they already know Plan B is actually PLan A.

 

I think the final offer made to Lester was just a sham and public relations ploy to try to save half face. The Bogey offer may end up being a similar ploy.

 

Who know? Maybe, we really do want him back.

[notin]

The front office knows all about Boras' methods. They're smart enough to have already been prepared to move on from Bogey since Spring Feigning (their lowball offer).

 

Xander giving another hometown discount and/or telling Boras to get it done before Christmas may actually be Bloom's Plan C or D.

 

Not to mention, signing any deal is not Boras’ decision. All he can do is say “Xander, please wait.”

[mvp 78]

Well, Henry said he's calling Xander when he gets back from Aruba. We'll see if that materializes.

[moonslav59]

The bigger question is just what is fair offer for Bogey?

 

$160M/6? (Story got $140M/6 and the US inflation rate is about 9%.)

 

$168M/6?

 

$185M/7?

 

$140M/5?

[mvp 78]

The bigger question is just what is fair offer for Bogey?

 

$160M/6? (Story got $140M/6 and the US inflation rate is about 9%.)

 

$168M/6?

 

$185M/7?

 

$140M/5?

 

Is the Luxury Tax inflating at 10% too or no?

 

150/6

[moonslav59]

Is the Luxury Tax inflating at 10% too or no?

 

150/6

 

Seems just about right.

 

I doubt he takes it, unless he reaches free agency and no GM offers more.

 

His home and away splits might scare away some GMs.

 

.878 H

 

.758 A

 

His away splits have been better, recently:

 

.796 in '21

 

.779 in '22

[moonslav59]

Is the Luxury Tax inflating at 10% too or no?

 

150/6

 

Lux Tax inflation is not 10%, but it only affects 4-8 teams a year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The bigger question is just what is fair offer for Bogey?

 

$160M/6? (Story got $140M/6 and the US inflation rate is about 9%.)

 

$168M/6?

 

$185M/7?

 

$140M/5?

 

The biggest question is what is a fair offer TO Bogey?

 

Correa has to factor into the answer, because Boras just advised him to opt out of a contract worth $35M per. Granted, it was only for two more years, so maybe he'll settle for another five or six at the same rate... but you know Boras will be leveraging whatever Correa gets to establish any offers that Bogaerts may consider.

 

It's doubtful Correa opted out to make less than $35M AAV. Carlos is two years younger than Xander, but X just had a better year. Based on that alone, does any poster seriously believe Bogey's market value is less than even $30M? Or that he'll insist to his superagent that he'll settle for less?

 

Who opts out of a contract to be underpaid a second time?

[moonslav59]

The biggest question is what is a fair offer TO Bogey?

 

Correa has to factor into the answer, because Boras just advised him to opt out of a contract worth $35M per. Granted, it was only for two more years, so maybe he'll settle for another five or six at the same rate... but you know Boras will be leveraging whatever Correa gets to establish any offers that Bogaerts may consider.

 

It's doubtful Correa opted out to make less than $35M AAV. Carlos is two years younger than Xander, but X just had a better year. Based on that alone, does any poster seriously believe Bogey's market value is less than even $30M? Or that he'll insist to his superagent that he'll settle for less?

 

Who opts out of a contract to be underpaid a second time?

 

Correa will likely get less than $35M a year, but it will be longer term.

 

What's your fair offer TO Bogey?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Correa will likely get less than $35M a year, but it will be longer term.

 

What's your fair offer TO Bogey?

 

When I said TO Bogey, I meant what does he feel is a fair offer. If Correa gets a penny over $30M, then why would Bogey deserve or take less than $30M?

 

So a fair offer may be 6 at 180 -- that's probably his market value, like it or not... but you know Boras will be insisting on at least 8 or $200M, whichever comes first.

 

Ponder this: say another club offers 5 for 150, and the Sox offer 6 for 160 -- does X stay in Boston?

[notin]

The biggest question is what is a fair offer TO Bogey?

 

Correa has to factor into the answer, because Boras just advised him to opt out of a contract worth $35M per. Granted, it was only for two more years, so maybe he'll settle for another five or six at the same rate... but you know Boras will be leveraging whatever Correa gets to establish any offers that Bogaerts may consider.

 

It's doubtful Correa opted out to make less than $35M AAV. Carlos is two years younger than Xander, but X just had a better year. Based on that alone, does any poster seriously believe Bogey's market value is less than even $30M? Or that he'll insist to his superagent that he'll settle for less?

 

Who opts out of a contract to be underpaid a second time?

 

 

Age is a bigger factor than it probably should be, but I believe the goal with any contract like this is to get as many of the age 28-32 years as possible, before decline sets in. As Bogaerts is already 30, do you think he still gets paid like a 28yo?

[moonslav59]

When I said TO Bogey, I meant what does he feel is a fair offer. If Correa gets a penny over $30M, then why would Bogey deserve or take less than $30M?

 

So a fair offer may be 6 at 180 -- that's probably his market value, like it or not... but you know Boras will be insisting on at least 8 or $200M, whichever comes first.

 

Ponder this: say another club offers 5 for 150, and the Sox offer 6 for 160 -- does X stay in Boston?

 

I don't think it matters at all what Bogey wants.

 

The Sox will set a price and stick to it, like they always do.

 

If another GM offers more, he'll be gone.

 

I'm talking about what offer the Sox make that saves face (or half face, as I called it, since they already apparently low-balled him, already.)

 

What do you think is a "fair offer." It should not have to do with what Correa is asking for or even gets.

[mvp 78]

When I said TO Bogey, I meant what does he feel is a fair offer. If Correa gets a penny over $30M, then why would Bogey deserve or take less than $30M?

 

So a fair offer may be 6 at 180 -- that's probably his market value, like it or not... but you know Boras will be insisting on at least 8 or $200M, whichever comes first.

 

Ponder this: say another club offers 5 for 150, and the Sox offer 6 for 160 -- does X stay in Boston?

 

Nobody is giving Xander 8 years. He's also not getting 30M AAV. I'm not sure I'd give Correa 30M either. Turner, yes.

 

Per Statcast, Xander got a big bonus to fWAR from defensive shifting this year. When he was in his normal defensive positioning, he had a negative OAA. In fact, his 5 OAA comes solely from when he was positioned to the right of 2b. That has gone away for him.

[oldtimer]

The bigger question is just what is fair offer for Bogey?

 

$160M/6? (Story got $140M/6 and the US inflation rate is about 9%.)

 

$168M/6?

 

$185M/7?

 

$140M/5?

 

Since when do people automatically get inflation protection? I'm reluctant to go to 6 years but if that is a must, I think $150m/6 is a great offer for a player in his 30s. I might go a little higher in AAV if the term was for 5 years. How many stinko contracts are out there in MLB?

[mvp 78]

Since when do people automatically get inflation protection? I'm reluctant to go to 6 years but if that is a must, I think $150m/6 is a great offer for a player in his 30s. I might go a little higher in AAV if the term was for 5 years. How many stinko contracts are out there in MLB?

 

The age is a huge factor here. If you look at Derek Jeter, he only had 3 seasons above 4 fWAR after he turned 31. Xander will surely be productive, but that production is going to start to drop.

[moonslav59]

Nobody is giving Xander 8 years. He's also not getting 30M AAV. I'm not sure I'd give Correa 30M either. Turner, yes.

 

Per Statcast, Xander got a big bonus to fWAR from defensive shifting this year. When he was in his normal defensive positioning, he had a negative OAA. In fact, his 5 OAA comes solely from when he was positioned to the right of 2b. That has gone away for him.

 

Interesting info in Bogey and the shift.

 

The other thing about a long term deal is that Bogey will likely not be a SS for much longer. Getting top SS pay while playing 2B or 3B is not something many GM will sign up for.

[notin]

Interesting info in Bogey and the shift.

 

The other thing about a long term deal is that Bogey will likely not be a SS for much longer. Getting top SS pay while playing 2B or 3B is not something many GM will sign up for.

 

Standing with 6/$150mill.

 

Take it or leave it, Xander…

[moonslav59]

Standing with 6/$150mill.

 

Take it or leave it, Xander…

 

I think that is fair, but all FA deals seem to be overpays, so $160M/6 seems okay, to me.

[Nick]

None of you have posted an acquisition that in my view says "we're much better in 2023".

 

Yeah I get it that we will get worse maybe by not resigning Xander. But signing him does not make us "much better". He had a pretty good year and his signing gets us back to the starting gate.

 

I will hold Bloom to what he said.

 

And his mismanagement of luxury tax at the trade deadline this year will negatively impact us much greater the $900K penalty we paid.

 

Many of you could have done better and I'm serious.

Edited October 18, 2022 by Nick