A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Building a winning team and making meaningful progress towards a title are two separate things. You would probably benefit from another down year in the long run while the Yanks, Jays and Rays are in window. Because Bloom didn't blow it up, the sox did not get the bang for the buck they needed at the deadline in terms of long term prospects capable of making a big impact. There are so many holes for the sox and with Bloom at the helm and Henry running things, I doubt they fill them all with top free agents. You are gonna need some bargain basement guys to work out or some prospects to rocket through. I don't think the 2022 season was especially kind to some of the prospects who you needed to make a jump. Yorke for example, fell back to the guy we all thought he was before his big breakout 2021. For 2022, the only tremendously above average players manning positions are Story and Devers. The other guys are maybe above replacement level, but not above an average regular like Verdugo and Kike (albeit barring a return to his career year of 2021). So you're not starting with a strong foundation to build around. And considering Devers is heading into his final year, you may not have the cornerstone of your lineup when the rest of the guys rise either. It is far easier to flesh out a team when the core is intact than it is to build a core. This is why the Yanks cannot let Judge leave. He is the straw that stirs the drink

 

How could you possibly hold any future Red Sox discussion by ignoring Enmanuel Valdez, the Mexican Home Run Derby champion?

 

Valdez just set the all-time points record for HRs in Mexico City, leading the Sox to victory over the Yankees, Dodgers and Cubs.

 

Of course, where would Boston be without Jocelyn Alo -- she of the 400-plus tape measure blasts?!?!

 

Red Sox win Home Run Derby X grand final in Mexico City

WWW.MLB.COM

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MEXICO CITY -- They traveled the world, crisscrossing the globe to spread a brand new game of baseball to fans new and old. There was music, there was food, and there were so many home runs. On Saturday at Mexico City's legendary Campo Marte, the Red Sox, Dodgers, Cubs, and

[moonslav59]

Building a winning team and making meaningful progress towards a title are two separate things. You would probably benefit from another down year in the long run while the Yanks, Jays and Rays are in window. Because Bloom didn't blow it up, the sox did not get the bang for the buck they needed at the deadline in terms of long term prospects capable of making a big impact. There are so many holes for the sox and with Bloom at the helm and Henry running things, I doubt they fill them all with top free agents. You are gonna need some bargain basement guys to work out or some prospects to rocket through. I don't think the 2022 season was especially kind to some of the prospects who you needed to make a jump. Yorke for example, fell back to the guy we all thought he was before his big breakout 2021. For 2022, the only tremendously above average players manning positions are Story and Devers. The other guys are maybe above replacement level, but not above an average regular like Verdugo and Kike (albeit barring a return to his career year of 2021). So you're not starting with a strong foundation to build around. And considering Devers is heading into his final year, you may not have the cornerstone of your lineup when the rest of the guys rise either. It is far easier to flesh out a team when the core is intact than it is to build a core. This is why the Yanks cannot let Judge leave. He is the straw that stirs the drink

 

I disagree on the foundation not being strong. While we have some clear high needs, we also have more cash on hand than we have in a long time. We also have 3-4 promising prospects looking to contribute in 2023, another 3-4 that look promising as early as 2023, and another 4-6 that may surprise. We have not seen that in a very long time.

[Bellhorn04]

https://www.yahoo.com/news/hern-ndez-blame-andrew-friedmans-064220812.html

 

Interesting take from the LA Times. Choice quotes: "What the Dodgers are doing with their pitching isn’t working.

 

Any review of the Dodgers’ failure starts with the organization’s overarching philosophy implemented by Friedman that devalues starting pitching and calls for the use of an assembly line of relievers.

 

This is an industry-wide trend, and it works — to a degree.

 

The Dodgers have taken this concept to an extreme, as their management apparatus has demonstrated an inclination to stick with their pregame script rather than allow a starter who is performing well to pitch an extra inning or two.

 

They can’t continue scripting pitching matchups for entire games.

 

They can’t remove a starter when he's pitching well just because they decided to do so beforehand."

 

From this perspective on the postseason, those that hope Bloom can be a future Friedman might rethink the hope...

 

And the Padres let Snell face 23 batters in Game 3, and it worked...

[moonslav59]

It sure would make the Sox off season more enjoyable, if the Yanks go down, today.

[mvp 78]

Back to 2023

 

I will give JD credit. His OPS was 3rd among all the DH. Xander lead the shortstops. Devers I believe was in top 5.

 

Let's hope Story can stay healthy and cut down on his strikeouts.

 

Our outfield needs to give us better production.

 

Would love to see starting pitcher #1 and starting pitcher #2 signed this offseason. That ought to do it.

 

Story could stay healthy and the k's can get a little better, but he has always been a pretty big k guy.

 

The OF was embarrassing this year. We'll see what it looks like going into 2023. Verdugo hasn't taken any big step forward nor should we expect him to at this point. Health from Kiké will be big. Probably need to grab a FA RFer.

 

I don't see them getting a #1 SP in FA. It would be cost prohibitive and the names available all have certain question marks attached to them health/age/consistency.

[mvp 78]

If Bloom is the man for the job as some of the posters on here think he is then building a winning team that gets into the postseason should be accomplished, but on the other hand if Bloom is not the man for the job as some poster think then that will show itself also. Easy, or hard that’s what Bloom gets the big bucks for to put a winning competitive team on the field. At least that’s the company line from Kennedy. Driving the sanitation truck from cities to cities to look for diamonds in the rough won’t be enough.

 

With expanded playoffs, Sox should ALWAYS be close to WC contention at the very least. The rollercoaster we've had since 2011 needs to go away.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

And the Padres let Snell face 23 batters in Game 3, and it worked...

 

What were they thinking, letting him face the top of the order a third time! If you overlay a bar graph on Snell's smile, all his teeth trend toward taking a bite out of a Philly cheesesteak.

[moonslav59]

Story could stay healthy and the k's can get a little better, but he has always been a pretty big k guy.

 

The OF was embarrassing this year. We'll see what it looks like going into 2023. Verdugo hasn't taken any big step forward nor should we expect him to at this point. Health from Kiké will be big. Probably need to grab a FA RFer.

 

I don't see them getting a #1 SP in FA. It would be cost prohibitive and the names available all have certain question marks attached to them health/age/consistency.

 

I don't care about high K's if the guy can get on base and or hit enough to outweigh the K's. Story just need to get his OBP up near his career norm and hit 60 XBHs, which he was on pace to do, this year, and the K's should be forgotten.

[moonslav59]

I don't see them getting a #1 SP in FA. It would be cost prohibitive and the names available all have certain question marks attached to them health/age/consistency.

 

I agree. I could see us bringing Wacha back, but I think trading for an ace or solid #2 would be the best way to get one.

 

I'm not sure the Sox think now is the time to trade a top prospect or two, though.

[mvp 78]

I don't care about high K's if the guy can get on base and or hit enough to outweigh the K's. Story just need to get his OBP up near his career norm and hit 60 XBHs, which he was on pace to do, this year, and the K's should be forgotten.

 

Hard to get your OBP up when your k rate is at 30%. If it's down to 23%, it's a little more doable, which kinda was my point. His production can be very good, but he will always strike out.

[mvp 78]

I agree. I could see us bringing Wacha back, but I think trading for an ace or solid #2 would be the best way to get one.

 

I'm not sure the Sox think now is the time to trade a top prospect or two, though.

 

I think it depends on the prospect and depends on the guy they are bringing back. I don't believe in the whole "wasting a year" nonsense that people on here were talking about on Friday. Most of us thought the 2021 team was just an 86 win team. They made it to the ALCS. With one more high leverage starter, they could have gotten to the WS.

[notin]

I agree. I could see us bringing Wacha back, but I think trading for an ace or solid #2 would be the best way to get one.

 

I'm not sure the Sox think now is the time to trade a top prospect or two, though.

 

Maybe Koudai Senga?

 

He does look interesting but these Japanese guys seem to stay on the west cost alot.

 

I think a lot comes down to whether or not the Sox can sign Bogaerts or how they replace him. Signing Bogaerts/Turner/Correa/Swanson might make Marcelo Mayer more available for a pitcher, especially if they are just as high on Mickey Romero s as they are on Mayer.

 

I know Ceddane Rafaela is also mentioned as trade bait frequently, but he’s also the Sox only viable MLB outfielder between Boston and Greenville…

[moonslav59]

Hard to get your OBP up when your k rate is at 30%. If it's down to 23%, it's a little more doable, which kinda was my point. His production can be very good, but he will always strike out.

 

Some players can do it.

 

Story's highest K% years and his OBP those years:

 

34% in 2017 .308 OBP

31% in 2016 .341

31% in 2022 .303

27% in 2019 .363

26% in 2018 .348

24% in 2020 .355

23% in 2021 .329

 

 

RED= years over his .336 career OBP

 

There does not seem to be an exact correlation between his K% and OBP, although there is a slight to moderate one.

Edited October 17, 2022 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I don't care about high K's if the guy can get on base and or hit enough to outweigh the K's. Story just need to get his OBP up near his career norm and hit 60 XBHs, which he was on pace to do, this year, and the K's should be forgotten.

 

I care about Ks -- I can't stand them as a fan, and as a student of the game. And as far as OBP, a walk is just not as good as a hit. A walk can't advance another baserunner more than one bag, but a single can move a guy two bases or even score him from first (if he's fast and running on the pitch).

 

All or nothing offenses are also boring, and bad bets to go deep in October against quality pitching. This final ALDS is quite the contrast on both extremes, with Cleveland contact vs. an opponent which can't muster a hit unless it goes over the fence.

[moonslav59]

Maybe Koudai Senga?

 

He does look interesting but these Japanese guys seem to stay on the west cost alot.

 

I think a lot comes down to whether or not the Sox can sign Bogaerts or how they replace him. Signing Bogaerts/Turner/Correa/Swanson might make Marcelo Mayer more available for a pitcher, especially if they are just as high on Mickey Romero s as they are on Mayer.

 

I know Ceddane Rafaela is also mentioned as trade bait frequently, but he’s also the Sox only viable MLB outfielder between Boston and Greenville…

 

I'm willing to take a flyer on Senga, but we'd need more than just him.

 

On trading Rafaela, I really like the guy, but we have to give something to get something, and I don't want to trade Bello. If we extend Bogey, I'm open to trading Mayer, but I'm also thinking Bogey may be ready to move off SS just about the time Mayer is ML ready. (Also, Rafaela can play SS. I'm not sure how well, but I think pretty well.)

 

I'm not so sure Romero, Lugo or Bonaci can be plusses, one day.

[moonslav59]

I care about Ks -- I can't stand them as a fan, and as a student of the game. And as far as OBP, a walk is just not as good as a hit. A walk can't advance another baserunner more than one bag, but a single can move a guy two bases or even score him from first (if he's fast and running on the pitch).

 

All or nothing offenses are also boring, and bad bets to go deep in October against quality pitching. This final ALDS is quite the contrast on both extremes, with Cleveland contact vs. an opponent which can't muster a hit unless it goes over the fence.

 

A walk is still a big plus, and a K is not a DP.

 

I'll take 240Ks, if the guy gets on base at .340 and hits 60 XBHs.

 

You wouldn't?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A walk is still a big plus, and a K is not a DP.

 

I'll take 240Ks, if the guy gets on base at .340 and hits 60 XBHs.

 

You wouldn't?

 

No way. Unless you mean maybe 140Ks (the all-time record for most strikeouts in a season is 223)...

 

This past season, 46 players had OBP of at least .340, with about a dozen over 140Ks. Here's one that had a .341 OBP, 60 XBH and 145 Ks... and he drove a lot of Red Sox fans crazy, with what looked like a mediocre year at the plate -- JD Martinez.

 

We know it was just mediocre for him, but do we want him back?

[mvp 78]

Maybe Koudai Senga?

 

He does look interesting but these Japanese guys seem to stay on the west cost alot.

 

I think a lot comes down to whether or not the Sox can sign Bogaerts or how they replace him. Signing Bogaerts/Turner/Correa/Swanson might make Marcelo Mayer more available for a pitcher, especially if they are just as high on Mickey Romero s as they are on Mayer.

 

I know Ceddane Rafaela is also mentioned as trade bait frequently, but he’s also the Sox only viable MLB outfielder between Boston and Greenville…

 

Romero can be moved to 2b. Story and Xander can be moved elsewhere as well. If these guys are really good enough, you can make room on the roster. Just because Xander has a contract for 6 years, doesn't mean he's the SS for 6 years.

 

Rafaela has a viable glove, but his bat isn't there.

[mvp 78]

Some players can do it.

 

Story's highest K% years and his OBP those years:

 

34% in 2017 .308 OBP

31% in 2016 .341

31% in 2022 .303

27% in 2019 .363

26% in 2018 .348

24% in 2020 .355

23% in 2021 .329

 

 

RED= years over his .336 career OBP

 

There does not seem to be an exact correlation between his K% and OBP, although there is a slight to moderate one.

 

SLG at Coors

2017: 654 (386 away)

2016: 693 (454 away)

2019: 662 (445 away)

2018: 678 (452 away)

 

SLG at Fenway

2022: 517 (407 away)

 

To be the real Trevor Story, he needs to bring the k's back down to about 25% because that SLG that we remember probably isn't coming back. He didn't get 20M to be a 100 wRC+ guy and at 30% k rate, that's where he'll be.

[Old Red]

Romero can be moved to 2b. Story and Xander can be moved elsewhere as well. If these guys are really good enough, you can make room on the roster. Just because Xander has a contract for 6 years, doesn't mean he's the SS for 6 years.

 

Rafaela has a viable glove, but his bat isn't there.

Just because Story signed a 6 yr contract doesn’t mean he has to spend all 6 yrs in Boston either.

[moonslav59]

No way. Unless you mean maybe 140Ks (the all-time record for most strikeouts in a season is 223)...

 

This past season, 46 players had OBP of at least .340, with about a dozen over 140Ks. Here's one that had a .341 OBP, 60 XBH and 145 Ks... and he drove a lot of Red Sox fans crazy, with what looked like a mediocre year at the plate -- JD Martinez.

 

We know it was just mediocre for him, but do we want him back?

 

I just put 240 out there. I'd actually take 300Ks, if any player also gave me .340 and 60 XBhs.

 

Out of the top 270 players in MLB by PAs (30 teams x 9 batters):

 

67 had an OBP over .340 (only 24%)

 

18 of those 67 had a SLG% under .425.

 

Not many hitters have a .340 and 60+ XBH.

 

Also, on Story's OBP: it is not largely fed by a high BB rate. He has a decent .268 BA and an 8.5 BB%. He has decent speed and has only 24 GIDPs in his last 1900+ PAs.

[Old Red]

I just put 240 out there. I'd actually take 300Ks, if any player also gave me .340 and 60 XBhs.

 

Out of the top 270 players in MLB by PAs (30 teams x 9 batters):

 

67 had an OBP over .340 (only 24%)

 

18 of those 67 had a SLG% under .425.

 

Not many hitters have a .340 and 60+ XBH.

 

Also, on Story's OBP: it is not largely fed by a high BB rate. He has a decent .268 BA and an 8.5 BB%. He has decent speed and has only 24 GIDPs in his last 1900+ PAs.

I’d only take 300 K’s if Story was a pitcher.

[mvp 78]

And before you go "I didn't say SLG!!!" you can look that his SLG rate closely aligns with his swings in OBP. He needs all the help he can get now that he's away from Coors. Reducing his k's is just part of it.

[moonslav59]

SLG at Coors

2017: 654 (386 away)

2016: 693 (454 away)

2019: 662 (445 away)

2018: 678 (452 away)

 

SLG at Fenway

2022: 517 (407 away)

 

To be the real Trevor Story, he needs to bring the k's back down to about 25% because that SLG that we remember probably isn't coming back. He didn't get 20M to be a 100 wRC+ guy and at 30% k rate, that's where he'll be.

 

I'm not saying 100wRC+. I've said he has to bring his numbers up, as well as his PAs by staying healthy.

 

No batter is at 100wRC+ with a .340 OBP and 60 XBHs.

 

Story was on pace for 60 XBHs, this year. His BA and OBP were way too low. I know that.

 

Story's 2022 numbers at 161 games:

 

.238 27 113 (37 2Bs and 64 XBHs)

 

.303 OBP- YUCK! (.340 before coming to BOS)

.434 SLG% Farther from his career SLG (.523 before BOS) than his OBP dip.

 

BTW, his OPS+ was 112.

 

Her certainly need to do better than a 100 wRC+. Agreed.

[mvp 78]

Just because Story signed a 6 yr contract doesn’t mean he has to spend all 6 yrs in Boston either.

 

I guess? Sox better not eat any of that salary though. I think Story is valuable in so far as he can play multiple positions and has a lot of power. He's very good at 2b. I think next year he'll will be a better campaign for him.

[moonslav59]

I’d only take 300 K’s if Story was a pitcher.

 

Would you take 300Ks with a .380 OBP and 40 HRs?

[mvp 78]

I'm willing to take a flyer on Senga, but we'd need more than just him.

 

On trading Rafaela, I really like the guy, but we have to give something to get something, and I don't want to trade Bello. If we extend Bogey, I'm open to trading Mayer, but I'm also thinking Bogey may be ready to move off SS just about the time Mayer is ML ready. (Also, Rafaela can play SS. I'm not sure how well, but I think pretty well.)

 

I'm not so sure Romero, Lugo or Bonaci can be plusses, one day.

 

Rafaela's glove is MLB ready at SS and CF. He's a plus plus defender.

[notin]

Just because Story signed a 6 yr contract doesn’t mean he has to spend all 6 yrs in Boston either.

 

No, but his $23mill salary limits the ability to move him…

[moonslav59]

Rafaela's glove is MLB ready at SS and CF. He's a plus plus defender.

 

His arm is apparently strong enough for RF, too.

 

Our biggest needs beyond pitching are SS and RF. CF will be open in 2024.

 

soxprospects does tout his SS defense:

 

Field: Versatile, standout defender. Has the potential to be a plus defender at second, short, third, and in the outfield, but best position is center field. In the outfield, has really good instincts. Takes really good routes and has plus range. Played primarily third base in 2018, but also saw time at shortstop. In 2019, split time evenly between second, third, and short. In 2021, became a true utility player, also playing the outfield, showing the ability to play a plus center field. Named farm system's 2021 Defensive Player of the Year.

Arm: Plus arm. Quick release and arm shows good carry.

[Old Red]

SLG at Coors

2017: 654 (386 away)

2016: 693 (454 away)

2019: 662 (445 away)

2018: 678 (452 away)

 

SLG at Fenway

2022: 517 (407 away)

 

To be the real Trevor Story, he needs to bring the k's back down to about 25% because that SLG that we remember probably isn't coming back. He didn't get 20M to be a 100 wRC+ guy and at 30% k rate, that's where he'll be.

 

When Story was signed it was pointed out that Bogey did not hit as good away from Fenway like Story didn’t hit as good away from Coors, but like I pointed out now Story will not play any games at Coors.