A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Old Red]

I'd be fine with him as our 4th OF'er, but we need a FT RF'er- hopefully a RH'd or R/L batter.

 

Adding a quality minor leaguer with ML experience would be better than counting on Duran.

 

I don't think we have enough money to sign someone like Nimmo and a better 4th OF'er while also addressing so many other high need areas, as well.

 

I don’t know why Duran Duran The Butterfly Man is even mentioned anymore, but even as a 4th OF for the Ref I think you still need a plan B for that.

[moonslav59]

I don’t know why Duran Duran The Butterfly Man is even mentioned anymore, but even as a 4th OF for the Ref I think you still need a plan B for that.

 

The Plan B would be a player signed to a minor league contract- perhaps with a date to be added to the ML roster or be released.

 

We can't afford a RF'er and 4/5th OF'er on the budget.

 

I doubt we go with 5 OF'ers on the 26, unless one DH's a big chunk of the time.

 

Maybe Nimmo as RF and Mancini as DH/ corner OF and 1B depth, but even then, where do we go light, so we can afford those two?

[moonslav59]

I don’t know why Duran Duran The Butterfly Man is even mentioned anymore, but even as a 4th OF for the Ref I think you still need a plan B for that.

 

I think saying adding a minor league FA, so we don't count on Duran is an acceptable use of the Butterfly Man's name.

[Old Red]

I think saying adding a minor league FA, so we don't count on Duran is an acceptable use of the Butterfly Man's name.

 

Duran, Downs, and Franchy to me is 3 names that could just go away.

[moonslav59]

Duran, Downs, and Franchy to me is 3 names that could just go away.

 

I think Franchy will be gone, despite our lack of OF minor league depth that is ML ready.

 

I think Duran and Downs will be given another year in AAA to show growth or be traded or cut loose. Even if they do well, I will not be excited seeing them get another chance at the ML level with the Sox. Maybe they can build trade value by doing very well in AAA.

 

I'd also be fine saying good bye to Brasier, Dhern, Change, Ort, McGee and Almonte.

 

We certainly have enough room to add 5-7 FAs and 4-5 Rule 5'ers plus EValdez, this winter without crying over a DFA or two.

[moonslav59]

To me, I think this is who should be on our 40 man roster, next year: (42 players listed: red are bubble)

 

SP: __FA__, Sale, Pivetta, Bello, Mata, TWard (AAA), Walter (AAA)

SP/RP: Whitlock, Houck, __FA__, Crawford, Winckowski (AAA), Seabold (AAA)

RP: __FA__, Schreiber, __FA__, Barnes, Taylor, Kelly, German, Danish (AAA), Bazardo (AAA)

C: McGuire, Wong, RHern (AAA)

1B: Casas

1B/DH: Dalbec, Hosmer

2B: Story, Arroyo, EValdez (AAA)

3B: Devers

SS: __FA__, Downs (AAA)

LF: Dugo, Almonte (AAA), Duran (AAA)

CF: Kike, Rafaela (AAA)

RF: __FA__, Refsnyder, Abreu (AAA)

 

Trade or DFA: DHern, McGee, Chang, Ort, Brasier

 

[moonslav59]

To me, I think this is who should be on our 40 man roster, next year: (42 players listed: red are bubble)

 

SP: __FA__, Sale, Pivetta, Bello, Mata, TWard (AAA), Walter (AAA)

SP/RP: Whitlock, Houck, __FA__, Crawford, Winckowski (AAA), Seabold (AAA)

RP: __FA__, Schreiber, __FA__, Barnes, Taylor, Kelly, German, Danish (AAA), Bazardo (AAA)

C: McGuire, Wong, RHern (AAA)

1B: Casas

1B/DH: Dalbec, Hosmer

2B: Story, Arroyo, EValdez (AAA)

3B: Devers

SS: __FA__, Downs (AAA)

LF: Dugo, Almonte (AAA), Duran (AAA)

CF: Kike, Rafaela (AAA)

RF: __FA__, Refsnyder, Abreu (AAA)

 

Trade or DFA: DHern, McGee, Chang, Ort, Brasier

 

 

The 2 of 7 players highlighted in Red that should be traded or DFA'd seem to be much better than the bubble players of 2020, 2021 and pre-2022.

 

I have us adding 6 free agents or players via trade(s.) It could be more. It might be less.

 

We may try to find someone will to take 2-3 forty man roster players for 1 and improve the quality of the 40 man while not needing to DFA any of the players in red. The problem is, many teams value their 40 players and are looking to do the same. More likely, and 2 or 3 for 1 trade will involve promising prospects not needed to be added to the 40 man roster.

 

I think our farm is now strong enough to make one trade like that, but I'm not sure Bloom & Co. see this as being the right time to pull off a trade like that, but adding a quality pitcher without adding much to the budget would go a long way at improving the 2023 team by allowing us to spend more on other high need areas. If the pitcher we acquire has 3+ years of team control, or acn be extended, then the trade could help in 2023 AND beyond.

 

Maybe, I'mj ust dreaming.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think the plan was to have Story fill the RH'd line-up gap lost with the Renfroe trade, and we'd just suck it up in the OF, when facing a lefty starter (22% of our games.)

 

I think they felt JBJ, Duran, Dugo and Kike could do well enough to overcome that weakness on O vs LH'ers and JBJ would improve the defense by enough to not make the loss on O so bad.

 

I think Arroyo was a patchwork failure. Refsnyder was a lucky find. Pham was too little -too late.

 

The Kike slump and injury only made things worse, as it forced an already weak 4th OF'er into FT duty, but it also forced the Refsnyder call-up and success story.

 

At the outset of the season, Bloom admitted his roster was a right-handed bat short in the outfield -- so unless he's lying, one question about 2022 persists: Why leave the roster incomplete?

 

It's hard to believe no reporter or columnist ever asked him this... or if they did, I missed his answer.

 

Entering the season with holes on the field can't possibly be "the plan."

 

And no offense, Moon, but an actual big league plan that includes "we just suck it up" might as well just be "we'll just suck"

Edited October 11, 2022 by 5GoldGloves:OF,75

[Nick]

Based on MLBtraderumor's anticipated arbitrations raises of $17M for Red Sox, it appears we have around $95M to spend.

 

Pitching, Pitching, Pitching....short term deals...

 

Or we can go big....

 

Judge $40M

Xander $30M

Devers $20M on top of $16M (or wait until 2024 and sign a starting pitcher for $20M)

Hill $5M

 

 

C McGuire/Wong

1B Casas/Dalbec/Hosmer

2B Story

SS Xander

3B Devers

LF Verdugo

CF Kike

RF Judge

DH Casas/Hosmer/Dalbec

Utility Arroyo, Chang, Refsnyder

 

SP $20M man

SP Sale

SP Pivetta

SP Bello

SP Whitlock

SP Crawford

SP Hill

 

RP Barnes

RP Houck

RP Schrieber

RP Winckowski

RP Kelly

RP Ort

RP Brasier

RP German

 

Don't criticize....just tell me how YOU would spend $95M....I need some concrete suggestions....put it on the line

Edited October 11, 2022 by Nick

[Hugh2]

To me, I think this is who should be on our 40 man roster, next year: (42 players listed: red are bubble)

 

SP: __FA__, Sale, Pivetta, Bello, Mata, TWard (AAA), Walter (AAA)

SP/RP: Whitlock, Houck, __FA__, Crawford, Winckowski (AAA), Seabold (AAA)

RP: __FA__, Schreiber, __FA__, Barnes, Taylor, Kelly, German, Danish (AAA), Bazardo (AAA)

C: McGuire, Wong, RHern (AAA)

1B: Casas

1B/DH: Dalbec, Hosmer

2B: Story, Arroyo, EValdez (AAA)

3B: Devers

SS: __FA__, Downs (AAA)

LF: Dugo, Almonte (AAA), Duran (AAA)

CF: Kike, Rafaela (AAA)

RF: __FA__, Refsnyder, Abreu (AAA)

 

Trade or DFA: DHern, McGee, Chang, Ort, Brasier

 

 

Mata is your 5th starter?

[moonslav59]

At the outset of the season, Bloom admitted his roster was a right-handed bat short in the outfield -- so unless he's lying, one question about 2022 persists: Why leave the roster incomplete?

 

It's hard to believe no reporter or columnist ever asked him this... or if they did, I missed his answer.

 

Entering the season with holes on the field can't possibly be "the plan."

 

And no offense, Moon, but an actual big league plan that includes "we just suck it up" might as well just be "we'll just suck"

 

GMs constantly have to weigh one need vs another. Most know they have left some slots in higher need than they want.

 

Bloom made a mistake, here.

[notin]

At the outset of the season, Bloom admitted his roster was a right-handed bat short in the outfield -- so unless he's lying, one question about 2022 persists: Why leave the roster incomplete?

 

It's hard to believe no reporter or columnist ever asked him this... or if they did, I missed his answer.

 

Entering the season with holes on the field can't possibly be "the plan."

 

And no offense, Moon, but an actual big league plan that includes "we just suck it up" might as well just be "we'll just suck"

 

We’ve been down this Suzuki/Story rabbit hole before. All of it hinges on assumptions that Bradley was going to platoon. What if that was never the plan?

[notin]

Based on MLBtraderumor's anticipated arbitrations raises of $17M for Red Sox, it appears we have around $95M to spend.

 

Pitching, Pitching, Pitching....short term deals...

 

Or we can go big....

 

Judge $40M

Xander $30M

Devers $20M on top of $16M (or wait until 2024 and sign a starting pitcher for $20M)

Hill $5M

 

 

C McGuire/Wong

1B Casas/Dalbec/Hosmer

2B Story

SS Xander

3B Devers

LF Verdugo

CF Kike

RF Judge

DH Casas/Hosmer/Dalbec

Utility Arroyo, Chang, Refsnyder

 

SP $20M man

SP Sale

SP Pivetta

SP Bello

SP Whitlock

SP Crawford

SP Hill

 

RP Barnes

RP Houck

RP Schrieber

RP Winckowski

RP Kelly

RP Ort

RP Brasier

RP German

 

Don't criticize....just tell me how YOU would spend $95M....I need some concrete suggestions....put it on the line

 

Start with Nimmo, Montero and Fulmer. With a Bogaerts extension, that’s $50-60 mill…

[mvp 78]

Don't criticize....just tell me how YOU would spend $95M....I need some concrete suggestions....put it on the line

 

$25 - Xander

$20 - Nimmo

$1 - Marisnick

$7.5 - Hill

$17.5 - Bassitt

$8 - Montero

$4 - Strahm

 

Remainder would go towards Raffy extension.

[mvp 78]

We’ve been down this Suzuki/Story rabbit hole before. All of it hinges on assumptions that Bradley was going to platoon. What if that was never the plan?

 

Even if it's not the plan, were they really going to have a bench full of LHB?

[moonslav59]

Mata is your 5th starter?

 

No. I'm assuming Whitlock, Houck or the __FA__ listed in the SP/RP section will be in the rotation.

[Hugh2]

$25 - Xander

$20 - Nimmo

$1 - Marisnick

$7.5 - Hill

$17.5 - Bassitt

$8 - Montero

$4 - Strahm

 

Remainder would go towards Raffy extension.

 

If you're extending Raffy, youre going over the cap there. Unless of course they extend raffy and have it kick in after 2023? could they do that?:

[moonslav59]

Based on MLBtraderumor's anticipated arbitrations raises of $17M for Red Sox, it appears we have around $95M to spend.

 

Pitching, Pitching, Pitching....short term deals...

 

Or we can go big....

 

Judge $40M

Xander $30M

Devers $20M on top of $16M (or wait until 2024 and sign a starting pitcher for $20M)

Hill $5M

 

 

C McGuire/Wong

1B Casas/Dalbec/Hosmer

2B Story

SS Xander

3B Devers

LF Verdugo

CF Kike

RF Judge

DH Casas/Hosmer/Dalbec

Utility Arroyo, Chang, Refsnyder

 

SP $20M man

SP Sale

SP Pivetta

SP Bello

SP Whitlock

SP Crawford

SP Hill

 

RP Barnes

RP Houck

RP Schrieber

RP Winckowski

RP Kelly

RP Ort

RP Brasier

RP German

 

Don't criticize....just tell me how YOU would spend $95M....I need some concrete suggestions....put it on the line

 

I'd trade for Pablo Lopez. (Maybe Rafaela and a couple lower prospects)

Sign Nimmo, Swanson, Wacha, Fulmer, Montero and Strahm.

I'd work on extending Devers.

[moonslav59]

$25 - Xander

$20 - Nimmo

$1 - Marisnick

$7.5 - Hill

$17.5 - Bassitt

$8 - Montero

$4 - Strahm

 

Remainder would go towards Raffy extension.

 

The Raffy extension could begin in 2024, if the plan is to reset in 2023.

[Hugh2]

No. I'm assuming Whitlock, Houck or the __FA__ listed in the SP/RP section will be in the rotation.

 

I think they have to start making decisions with Whitlock/Houck on whether or not they're pen guys or starters. Sox know it too, plus the pen needs so much help I think you kind of have to put guys in there you figure are going to relievers long term anyways.

 

Sale/Pivetta/Bello/Whitlock/FA/FA. I think they need to bring in two pitchers. One guy who is known commodity, an ace would be nice but at least a solid #2#3 type, and then maybe one guy who fits the mold of Wacha this passed year. I'd feel a lot better about that rotation going into ST.

[moonslav59]

I think they have to start making decisions with Whitlock/Houck on whether or not they're pen guys or starters. Sox know it too, plus the pen needs so much help I think you kind of have to put guys in there you figure are going to relievers long term anyways.

 

Sale/Pivetta/Bello/Whitlock/FA/FA. I think they need to bring in two pitchers. One guy who is known commodity, an ace would be nice but at least a solid #2#3 type, and then maybe one guy who fits the mold of Wacha this passed year. I'd feel a lot better about that rotation going into ST.

 

I'd trade for a #1/2 starter and try to bring back Wacha. If we move Whitlock to the rotation, maybe we bring back Hill not Wacha.

 

I'd rather we add Pablo Lopez and bring Wacha back and keep Houck and Whitlock in the pen. Add Fulmer or Montero to the pen, too.

 

That should leave enough to sign Bogey or Swanson plus Nimmo and maybe some depth (C, DH, pen).

[Old Red]

GMs constantly have to weigh one need vs another. Most know they have left some slots in higher need than they want.

 

Bloom made a mistake, here.

 

The Red Sox were going to need a 4th OF to start the season anyways, but Bloom exasperated the problem with the trade for JBJ that made the OF go from a need to a higher need, and that also cost more.

[Hugh2]

I'd trade for a #1/2 starter and try to bring back Wacha. If we move Whitlock to the rotation, maybe we bring back Hill not Wacha.

 

I'd rather we add Pablo Lopez and bring Wacha back and keep Houck and Whitlock in the pen. Add Fulmer or Montero to the pen, too.

 

That should leave enough to sign Bogey or Swanson plus Nimmo and maybe some depth (C, DH, pen).

 

My biggest concern with Pablo Lopez is he seems to eat up crappy teams and pad his stats. I think he may end up only being more of a #3 guy in the AL east. I'm not sure I'd want to give up a guy like Mayer for him, which would probably be the cost. The guy I'd go after is Cabrera, who is younger, has much better stuff, and might actually be cheaper.

[Hugh2]

Pablo Lopez is going to cost a lot more than Rafaella plus a bunch of middling prospects. Young cost-controlled pitching usually starts with a couple of top prospects, TOP prospects. Teams are going to want one of Casas/Mayer/Bello just to come to the table for a guy.

[Nick]

If you're extending Raffy, youre going over the cap there. Unless of course they extend raffy and have it kick in after 2023? could they do that?:

 

Nope, MVP is right......Dever's $16-$17M salary is already baked in through the arbitration raises. There's enough room to add another $13M to get him to $30M and stay under the cap.

 

MVP's total is about $13M short of $95M that I suggested.

 

MVP is a math genius.

[notin]

Even if it's not the plan, were they really going to have a bench full of LHB?

 

It was the perfect compliment to their bullpen of LHPs.

 

Except that Arroyo guy, who insists on batting right-handed for some reason…

[notin]

The Red Sox were going to need a 4th OF to start the season anyways, but Bloom exasperated the problem with the trade for JBJ that made the OF go from a need to a higher need, and that also cost more.

 

They had internal options for a 4th OF, including Refsnyder and Cordero…

[notin]

My biggest concern with Pablo Lopez is he seems to eat up crappy teams and pad his stats. I think he may end up only being more of a #3 guy in the AL east. I'm not sure I'd want to give up a guy like Mayer for him, which would probably be the cost. The guy I'd go after is Cabrera, who is younger, has much better stuff, and might actually be cheaper.

 

To be fair to Lopez, he never gets to pitch against the Marlins…

[mvp 78]

The Raffy extension could begin in 2024, if the plan is to reset in 2023.

 

They could start it in 23 with a lower dollar amount.

[mvp 78]

Nope, MVP is right......Dever's $16-$17M salary is already baked in through the arbitration raises. There's enough room to add another $13M to get him to $30M and stay under the cap.

 

MVP's total is about $13M short of $95M that I suggested.

 

MVP is a math genius.

 

And I didn't even have to take out my slide rule this time!