A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[moonslav59]

Hopefully fans get that trying to build something sustainable and be competitive at the same time is a difficult task. Know why? Because they’re both difficult tasks individually.

 

Just doing one doesn’t guarantee any success at it. We’ve all seen that before multiple times…

 

It's also harder to build your farm with lower picks and bonus pool money, because to did not finish with a bottom 10 or 12, and if you overspend by too much and for too long, you make it even harder.

 

All-in-all, I think we rebuilt the farm faster, deeper and stronger than I expected, although it is almost all speculation, at this point. Many of DD's farm additions are showing more immediate promise, while Bloom's offer mostly longer term promise.

 

The budget is becoming more flexible, although needing to replace some longtime producers just about outweighs the loss of dead money.

 

IMO, we are very close to the balance sought after, but a lot will depend on how well this winter's additions do for us, going forward. We can't have too many Richards, Paxtons, Marwins and JBJs. We need to score big on our major additions while also finding the next Wacha, Strahm, Schreiber and Refsnyder.

[mvp 78]

I don’t think Cordero gets protected. He has been DFAd before and is eligible for arbitration. I suspect he will be non-tendered…

 

Ronaldo Hernandez is probably protected as well as he earned a 4th option year and can stick in AAA all next year as the starting catcher.

[mvp 78]

https://sports.yahoo.com/wittenmyer-cubs-among-trendsetters-openly-015436551.html

 

... interesting gripe column about "smart-guy front offices" spreading disinformation to fan bases in attempts to cover up -- you name it: tanking, not spending, not trying to win, pretending to go for it, fans deserve more, etc.

 

It comes from a Cubs' perspective, but here's a familiar quote that sounds like Sam Kennedy channeling Chaim Bloom: “We absolutely want to compete next year. We also want to build something really special for the fans. We want to build something stable, something lasting. And that’s the lens that we’re going to view our transactions this winter.”

 

The speaker was actually Chicago team president Jed Hoyer, once a Red Sox interim GM and disciple of Theo Epstein. In fact, this is the first line in the column: "Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein finally did it."

 

This is why it's doubtful Bloom is on the hot seat with Boston ownership. He's doing exactly what they hired him to do.

 

Cubs Payroll

19: 2nd highest

20: 6th

21: 10th

22: 15th

 

Red Sox

19: 1

20: 3

21: 3

22: 6

 

Uh, it's not a comparable situation. If the Sox did what the Cubs did, heads would explode on here.

[mvp 78]

Soxprospects.com lists him as Rule 5 eligible on his page, but not on their list of eligibles…

 

Yes, the Sox would have to re-sign Valdez as a MiLB FA and then not add him to the 40 man prior to the Rule 5 Draft and then he could be drafted.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

... I do think they and many of us felt like we had an opening day roster that could compete for a playoff slot...

 

I agree we all liked our returning core of star players, but many of us were left hanging when Bloom said at the time the roster still needed a right-handed hitting outfielder. And we were all wary about the bullpen and starting pitching depth beyond the new but injury-prone veterans.

 

The team just felt incomplete -- no one expected Devers, Bogie, JD and Dalbec to hit 44 less home runs than in 2021, but even if they didn't, was it reasonable to assume Story would supply the lost production of both Schwarber and Renfroe combined?

[Hugh2]

It's also harder to build your farm with lower picks and bonus pool money, because to did not finish with a bottom 10 or 12, and if you overspend by too much and for too long, you make it even harder.

 

All-in-all, I think we rebuilt the farm faster, deeper and stronger than I expected, although it is almost all speculation, at this point. Many of DD's farm additions are showing more immediate promise, while Bloom's offer mostly longer term promise.

 

The budget is becoming more flexible, although needing to replace some longtime producers just about outweighs the loss of dead money.

 

IMO, we are very close to the balance sought after, but a lot will depend on how well this winter's additions do for us, going forward. We can't have too many Richards, Paxtons, Marwins and JBJs. We need to score big on our major additions while also finding the next Wacha, Strahm, Schreiber and Refsnyder.

 

I don't completely buy into that. The MLB draft is more of a crapshoot than any of the other sports. There's so much more fluidity between the top 10 and bottom 10 of the first round than in any other sport. LA has maintained good farm systems when consistently picking at the bottom of the first round, and in the past we had done a much better job of that as well. But you can also build up a farm by trading guys away, which we've done a little bit of recently but also we may be drafting better again as well. And it's been taking guys later in the first round too such as Casas (26th)Yorke (17) Houck (24th). Mayer we got because we got the 4th pick, but we've blown picks that high and also drafted the supposed best player too with little to show before (Groome/Ball).

 

But LA is the model, they draft well, despite never picking in the front, and they get creative by taking on money to bring in talent without giving up prospects as well. It can be done, and I'm hoping that is what the Red Sox are trying to immitate.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Cubs Payroll

19: 2nd highest

20: 6th

21: 10th

22: 15th

 

Red Sox

19: 1

20: 3

21: 3

22: 6

 

Uh, it's not a comparable situation. If the Sox did what the Cubs did, heads would explode on here.

 

The writer actually acknowledged other big markets aren't as bad -- "Other upper-tier revenue teams in baseball, in New York and Los Angeles (and even Boston), give a much higher return — and year-to-year competitive effort — to their fans."

 

But Hoyer's a-lot-of-nothing quotes are almost the verbatim spin that regularly spews from Kennedy and Bloom.

[mvp 78]

I agree we all liked our returning core of star players, but many of us were left hanging when Bloom said at the time the roster still needed a right-handed hitting outfielder. And we were all wary about the bullpen and starting pitching depth beyond the new but injury-prone veterans.

 

The team just felt incomplete -- no one expected Devers, Bogie, JD and Dalbec to hit 44 less home runs than in 2021, but even if they didn't, was it reasonable to assume Story would supply the lost production of both Schwarber and Renfroe combined?

 

The team had a chance to compete for a playoff run, but health had to break their way two years in a row and that was unlikely for an aging/injury prone pitching staff. The bullpen additions were less than lackluster. They were still trying to figure out who the RHB platoon would be at the end of Spring Training and were throwing Arroyo out there during batting practice to test it out. It didn't work and had poor results that first Tigers series. People wondered about a platoon bat for the hot/cold Dalbec and that never materialized either. The "supersub" Arroyo had a career high 87 games, even though there was ample playing time available due to Story/Devers injuries, and still only amassed 0.2 fWAR.

 

The plan did feel incomplete.

[mvp 78]

The writer actually acknowledged other big markets aren't as bad -- "Other upper-tier revenue teams in baseball, in New York and Los Angeles (and even Boston), give a much higher return — and year-to-year competitive effort — to their fans."

 

But Hoyer's a-lot-of-nothing quotes are almost the verbatim spin that regularly spews from Kennedy and Bloom.

 

Just typical PR nonsense that means nothing and we can take nothing from it.

[moonslav59]

I agree we all liked our returning core of star players, but many of us were left hanging when Bloom said at the time the roster still needed a right-handed hitting outfielder. And we were all wary about the bullpen and starting pitching depth beyond the new but injury-prone veterans.

 

The team just felt incomplete -- no one expected Devers, Bogie, JD and Dalbec to hit 44 less home runs than in 2021, but even if they didn't, was it reasonable to assume Story would supply the lost production of both Schwarber and Renfroe combined?

 

I think the addition of the RH'd Story, which forced Kike to be the FT CF'er was how Bloom addressed the "RH'd hitting OF" gap.

 

When Kike went on the IL, while JBJ was stinking up the place, then Story went out, the whole plan collapsed. It didn't help that 80% of our rotation went out around the same time, as well.

[mvp 78]

I think the addition of the RH'd Story, which forced Kike to be the FT CF'er was how Bloom addressed the "RH'd hitting OF" gap.

 

When Kike went on the IL, while JBJ was stinking up the place, then Story went out, the whole plan collapsed. It didn't help that 80% of our rotation went out around the same time, as well.

 

I think the issue was that you want a backup OFer on the bench for Verdugo and JBJ that hits RH. They didn't have one. You can't just have 3 OFers on your roster. Plus, JBJ went into the year with big question marks as he previously struggled with the Brewers. It wasn't a slam dunk that he'd have a hot streak to even out his typically cold streak.

[Old Red]

I think the addition of the RH'd Story, which forced Kike to be the FT CF'er was how Bloom addressed the "RH'd hitting OF" gap.

 

When Kike went on the IL, while JBJ was stinking up the place, then Story went out, the whole plan collapsed. It didn't help that 80% of our rotation went out around the same time, as well.

 

The addition of Story had nothing to do with not needing a RH OF. The fact that Arroyo went out, and tried to play RF showed that, and showed what a lack of, or bad plan it was. As it turned out with JBJ, and Kike both sucking with the bat injury, or not showed even more was needed. Waiting until August to get someone like Pham was to little to late.

[moonslav59]

I think the issue was that you want a backup OFer on the bench for Verdugo and JBJ that hits RH. They didn't have one. You can't just have 3 OFers on your roster. Plus, JBJ went into the year with big question marks as he previously struggled with the Brewers. It wasn't a slam dunk that he'd have a hot streak to even out his typically cold streak.

 

Agreed. They did still need a 4th OF'er, but I think they hoped Duran would do better. He would not have helped the RH'd need, but Refsnyder ended up filling the 4th OF'er/RH'd bat pretty well, but kinda too late.

 

Story filled the RH'd bat need in the line-up.

 

Duran and later, Refsnyder were too little too late in the OF, and losing Kike almost the whole year was too much to overcome.

[Bobe2]

Ronaldo Hernandez is probably protected as well as he earned a 4th option year and can stick in AAA all next year as the starting catcher.

 

Hernandez is a minor league free agent this winter

[moonslav59]

The addition of Story had nothing to do with not needing a RH OF. The fact that Arroyo went out, and tried to play RF showed that, and showed what a lack of, or bad plan it was. As it turned out with JBJ, and Kike both sucking with the bat injury, or not showed even more was needed. Waiting until August to get someone like Pham was to little to late.

 

Before we signed Story, some felt Kike and Arroyo would play 2B, and with Arroyo's health concerns, Kike may have played mroe 2B than anyone wanted.

 

The Story signing filled the RH'd bat in the line-up need, but you are right- not the need for a RH'd OF'er.

 

Making Kike the FT CF'er addressed that need a little bit, but we still needed a RH'd corner OF bat, and at the time, did not realize Refsnyder might have filled that need in April and May but was not given a long chance.

 

I'm not defending the results, but the Story signing was designed to solve part of the issue in the OF and all of the RH'd line-up gap.

 

Had we given Refsnyder the first chance in the OF over Duran, when Kike went on the IL, maybe we wouldn't be talking about this mistake, so much.

[mvp 78]

Agreed. They did still need a 4th OF'er, but I think they hoped Duran would do better. He would not have helped the RH'd need, but Refsnyder ended up filling the 4th OF'er/RH'd bat pretty well, but kinda too late.

 

Story filled the RH'd bat need in the line-up.

 

Duran and later, Refsnyder were too little too late in the OF, and losing Kike almost the whole year was too much to overcome.

 

They already knew that Duran couldn't hit lefties. They already knew Duran couldn't field the position. What were they waiting for? It made zero sense to try Arroyo out there. It makes sense to try Dalbec out there starting now, which gives him a full offseason to learn the position.

[mvp 78]

Hernandez is a minor league free agent this winter

 

He is on the 40 man. If you are on the 40 man, you are under the terms of an MLB contract. He would have to be DFA'd and clear before any pending minor league free agency.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed. They did still need a 4th OF'er, but I think they hoped Duran would do better. He would not have helped the RH'd need, but Refsnyder ended up filling the 4th OF'er/RH'd bat pretty well, but kinda too late.

 

Story filled the RH'd bat need in the line-up.

 

Duran and later, Refsnyder were too little too late in the OF, and losing Kike almost the whole year was too much to overcome.

 

Refsnyder joined the team "for good" on June 10.

 

On June 26 the Red Sox were 42-31, their high point over .500 for the season.

 

Ergo, Refsnyder was not "too late" and that was not really a significant part of the team's problems this year.

[moonslav59]

Hernandez is a minor league free agent this winter

 

Not according to soxprospects.com:

 

https://www.soxprospects.com/mlfa.htm

 

I also found this...

 

The following players burned

their 2022 player option

 

Eduard Bazardo

Brayan Bello

Ryan Brasier

Kutter Crawford

Tyler Danish

Jaylin Davis

Jeter Downs

Jarren Duran

Darwinzon Hernandez

Ronaldo Hernandez

Bryan Mata

Kaleb Ort

Connor Seabold

Josh Winckowkski

Connor Wong

[mvp 78]

Before we signed Story, some felt Kike and Arroyo would play 2B, and with Arroyo's health concerns, Kike may have played mroe 2B than anyone wanted.

 

The Story signing filled the RH'd bat in the line-up need, but you are right- not the need for a RH'd OF'er.

 

Making Kike the FT CF'er addressed that need a little bit, but we still needed a RH'd corner OF bat, and at the time, did not realize Refsnyder might have filled that need in April and May but was not given a long chance.

 

I'm not defending the results, but the Story signing was designed to solve part of the issue in the OF and all of the RH'd line-up gap.

 

Had we given Refsnyder the first chance in the OF over Duran, when Kike went on the IL, maybe we wouldn't be talking about this mistake, so much.

 

Had Cora even suggested Refsnyder as an option in Spring Training instead of Arroyo, maybe it's a nonissue.

[moonslav59]

They already knew that Duran couldn't hit lefties. They already knew Duran couldn't field the position. What were they waiting for? It made zero sense to try Arroyo out there. It makes sense to try Dalbec out there starting now, which gives him a full offseason to learn the position.

 

I'm not defending the lack of a RH'd OF bat on the early 2022 roster.

 

I'm saying Story filled the line-up need for a solid RH'd bat with power, and solidified Kike's FT role in CF. Remember, he did start 49 games in the infield in 2021. The Story signing should have lessened that number, significantly and put a RH'd Kike's bat in the OF more often than 2021. That WAS NOT a solution to the problem, but should have lessened the need a little bit. Kike got hurt and did not hit well when healthy. That was not part of the plan.

 

Refsnyder was not played much until June, but he did fill the need, nicely, so this whole Pham came too late thing rings a bit hollow.

 

Bloom deserves criticism for not addressing the RH'd need at corner OF, but everything went wrong.

 

Yes, we knew Duran had issues vs LH'd pitchers, but he totally sucked- even vs RH'ers.

 

The Arroyo experiment failed.

 

Thr Refsnyder experiment started late.

 

Dugo even sucked early in the year, especially vs LH'ers.

 

BTW, we faced 36 starting LH'ers, this year. Most came after Refsnyder became part of the OF rotation.

 

We stuck with JBJ and Duran, too long. That's on Bloom and Cora. They both deserve some grief on this. I just don't think the plan was as bad as many make it out to be and that Story was meant to fix part of the problem that focused on about 22% of our games.

[Old Red]

Had Cora even suggested Refsnyder as an option in Spring Training instead of Arroyo, maybe it's a nonissue.

 

Refsnyder had been nothing, but a journeyman OF, so why would he had been given much of a thought. Now if Refsnyder had been given the shot in ST, and turned out like he did I agree with you. That still wouldn’t have made up for the JBJ failed return though.

[moonslav59]

Had Cora even suggested Refsnyder as an option in Spring Training instead of Arroyo, maybe it's a nonissue.

 

I don't think Sox Nation would have been happy had Bloom/Cora said the RH'd corner OF bat need was solved with Refsnyder prior to opening day.

[Old Red]

I don't think Sox Nation would have been happy had Bloom/Cora said the RH'd corner OF bat need was solved with Refsnyder prior to opening day.

 

Right on that, and nor should they have.

[moonslav59]

Refsnyder had been nothing, but a journeyman OF, so why would he had been given much of a thought. Now if Refsnyder had been given the shot in ST, and turned out like he did I agree with you. That still wouldn’t have made up for the JBJ failed return though.

 

Refsnyder was 2 PAs away from having the 4th most ST'ing PAs on the Sox.

 

His .660 ST'ing OPS did not impress anyone. He, more or less, lucked into a chance after everything else failed.

 

No way should he have been thought of as "part of the plan," early in the season. Bloom and Cora miscalculated the need. They miscalculated Arroyo's flexibility. They miscalculated JBJ and Duran's ability to hold their own on offense, with Duran's defense sucking as well.

[mvp 78]

Refsnyder had been nothing, but a journeyman OF, so why would he had been given much of a thought. Now if Refsnyder had been given the shot in ST, and turned out like he did I agree with you. That still wouldn’t have made up for the JBJ failed return though.

 

I was just saying that Refsnyder was clearly NOT Cora's plan in Spring Training. That there was no plan aside from "I guess throw Arroyo out there."

 

None of that would have fixed JBJ regardless and at no point did I claim that.

[Old Red]

Refsnyder was 2 PAs away from having the 4th most ST'ing PAs on the Sox.

 

His .660 ST'ing OPS did not impress anyone. He, more or less, lucked into a chance after everything else failed.

 

No way should he have been thought of as "part of the plan," early in the season. Bloom and Cora miscalculated the need. They miscalculated Arroyo's flexibility. They miscalculated JBJ and Duran's ability to hold their own on offense, with Duran's defense sucking as well.

Having said all that can the Red Sox plan on The Ref to be a contributor next year based on this year?

[Old Red]

I was just saying that Refsnyder was clearly NOT Cora's plan in Spring Training. That there was no plan aside from "I guess throw Arroyo out there."

 

None of that would have fixed JBJ regardless and at no point did I claim that.

I did not say you claimed anything about JBJ, and was my addressing the overall problem, and I agree with you that Bloom, and Cora FU.

Edited October 11, 2022 by Old Red

[moonslav59]

Having said all that can the Red Sox plan on The Ref to be a contributor next year based on this year?

 

I'd be fine with him as our 4th OF'er, but we need a FT RF'er- hopefully a RH'd or R/L batter.

 

Adding a quality minor leaguer with ML experience would be better than counting on Duran.

 

I don't think we have enough money to sign someone like Nimmo and a better 4th OF'er while also addressing so many other high need areas, as well.

[moonslav59]

I was just saying that Refsnyder was clearly NOT Cora's plan in Spring Training. That there was no plan aside from "I guess throw Arroyo out there."

 

None of that would have fixed JBJ regardless and at no point did I claim that.

 

I think the plan was to have Story fill the RH'd line-up gap lost with the Renfroe trade, and we'd just suck it up in the OF, when facing a lefty starter (22% of our games.)

 

I think they felt JBJ, Duran, Dugo and Kike could do well enough to overcome that weakness on O vs LH'ers and JBJ would improve the defense by enough to not make the loss on O so bad.

 

I think Arroyo was a patchwork failure. Refsnyder was a lucky find. Pham was too little -too late.

 

The Kike slump and injury only made things worse, as it forced an already weak 4th OF'er into FT duty, but it also forced the Refsnyder call-up and success story.