A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[notin]

Maybe. Maybe we trade Bogey in 2-3 years, but he will likely want a no-trade clause.

 

He also may not be tradable in 2-3 years.

 

If the Sox sign Bogaerts (or Correa or Turner), they should plan on keeping him for the life of the deal. They also need pitching now, and their best prospect plays the same position (aka “is blocked”) and could certainly get a very good pitcher in return…

[Old Red]

Maybe. Maybe we trade Bogey in 2-3 years, but he will likely want a no-trade clause.

 

Bogey would get a no-trade after next year anyway.

[moonslav59]

He also may not be tradable in 2-3 years.

 

If the Sox sign Bogaerts (or Correa or Turner), they should plan on keeping him for the life of the deal. They also need pitching now, and their best prospect plays the same position (aka “is blocked”) and could certainly get a very good pitcher in return…

 

I don't necessarily disagree, but Mayer is the only consensus best draft pick of a draft the Sox have ever had.

 

We better get 4+ years of control for him.

[cp176]

Well for the record boys i do and did know what a strawman argument is. It is an expression that is used so frequently that I don't use it. As for the word decimate with respect to what numerous posters on here have said, I don't feel the need to look back to specifically name them. DD did not decimate anything when the word is used to connote what I think it is meant to connote here. If someone wants to think that he just wiped us out with respect to our fresh young talent by trading a bunch of really average players for the most part, it is their prerogative. i choose to not believe that at all. I'm willing of course to give Bloom more time well knowing that my opinion much like most of yours means 0. I also absolutely believe that he has a long way to go to even be comparable in terms of accomplishments to the man he replaced. Remember though also, I agree with very few of you when you start gong on about how much money JH is and will be willing to spend to keep the franchise moving.

[moonslav59]

Well for the record boys i do and did know what a strawman argument is. It is an expression that is used so frequently that I don't use it. As for the word decimate with respect to what numerous posters on here have said, I don't feel the need to look back to specifically name them. DD did not decimate anything when the word is used to connote what I think it is meant to connote here. If someone wants to think that he just wiped us out with respect to our fresh young talent by trading a bunch of really average players for the most part, it is their prerogative. i choose to not believe that at all. I'm willing of course to give Bloom more time well knowing that my opinion much like most of yours means 0. I also absolutely believe that he has a long way to go to even be comparable in terms of accomplishments to the man he replaced. Remember though also, I agree with very few of you when you start gong on about how much money JH is and will be willing to spend to keep the franchise moving.

 

Certainly posters did use the word "decimate." My point was I have not heard it in a long time.

 

The term "strawman" is easy to understand, and may not apply to this case, since there were real posters who said DD decimated the farm.

 

No doubt, Bloom has a long way to go to reach the peak DD met, and he's been handed a different situation and set of priorities, so it's understandable the end results are not equal.

 

[Bellhorn04]

Remember though also, I agree with very few of you when you start gong on about how much money JH is and will be willing to spend to keep the franchise moving.

 

What most of us believe, and what we think has been proven over time, is that JH is willing to have one of the highest payrolls in baseball every year, but he also has his limits, which he showed most recently by letting Mookie go.

 

And we know that JH could spend much more than he does if he really wanted to, by digging into his own pocket, but he's shown that he isn't willing to do it.

 

So what is it exactly that you disagree with, and what is it that you believe about JH and his spending? Or what have I not stated properly?

[notin]

What most of us believe, and what we think has been proven over time, is that JH is willing to have one of the highest payrolls in baseball every year, but he also has his limits, which he showed most recently by letting Mookie go.

 

And we know that JH could spend much more than he does if he really wanted to, by digging into his own pocket, but he's shown that he isn't willing to do it.

 

So what is it exactly that you disagree with, and what is it that you believe about JH and his spending? Or what have I not stated properly?

 

The people who believe JH has spending limits (albeit high ones) do have plenty of history to back it up…

[Bellhorn04]

The people who believe JH has spending limits (albeit high ones) do have plenty of history to back it up…

 

If he had no limits, Mookie would still be with the team, and Bogaerts and Devers would be locked up long term. That seems like proof enough in itself.

[notin]

If he had no limits, Mookie would still be with the team, and Bogaerts and Devers would be locked up long term. That seems like proof enough in itself.

 

And the repeated resets and occasional tight controls. Remember when Cherington had to trade Marco Scutaro just to afford Cody Ross? Those are not Yankee/Dodger spending habits…

[notin]

I don't necessarily disagree, but Mayer is the only consensus best draft pick of a draft the Sox have ever had.

 

We better get 4+ years of control for him.

 

Not going to get a player - at least not one worthwhile - with 4 plus years of control left. Why would any team trade a ore-arb star player for an A ball shortstop?

[Bellhorn04]

And the repeated resets and occasional tight controls. Remember when Cherington had to trade Marco Scutaro just to afford Cody Ross? Those are not Yankee/Dodger spending habits…

 

Actually the Yankees have become much like that too, as they showed with the Ottavino salary dump last year.

[notin]

I don't necessarily disagree, but Mayer is the only consensus best draft pick of a draft the Sox have ever had.

 

We better get 4+ years of control for him.

 

Mayer, Bazardo and Winckowski for Pablo Lopez and Jesus Luzardo.

 

BTV likes it. Sox fans should. Marlins fans won’t, but we shouldn’t let either of them hold this up.

 

Marlins FO? I’m guessing not in favor, at least from a baseball viewpoint…

[Hugh2]

If I’m trading Mayer for pitching, I want someone better than Lopez, who I believe is over rated.

 

Wait, was confusing Lopez with someone else. Still, I happen to like Cabrera better. Regardless, Miami is desperate to shed payroll, the Sox would still have to give up good prospects but you could probably lower the price by taking back one of Garcia/Soler. Heck I’d take both if we didn’t have to give up a top ten guy.

Edited October 8, 2022 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[notin]

If I’m trading Mayer for pitching, I want someone better than Lopez, who I believe is over rated.

 

Wait, was confusing Lopez with someone else. Still, I happen to like Cabrera better. Regardless, Miami is desperate to shed payroll, the Sox would still have to give up good prospects but you could probably lower the price by taking back one of Garcia/Soler. Heck I’d take both if we didn’t have to give up a top ten guy.

 

If you’re trading Mayer for pitching, BTV values roughly equal to 2 years of Shane Bieber.

 

Of course, they also value him equally to former abloom trade target Sean Murphy. I’m guessing abloom values amateur more than Murphy, which is why the Sox have Mayer and not Mutphy.

 

But would you deal Mayer for two years of Bieber?

Edited October 8, 2022 by notin

[Bellhorn04]

If you’re trading Mayer for pitching, BTV values roughly equal to 2 years of Shane Bieber.

 

Of course, they also value him equally to former abloom trade target Sean Murphy. I’m guessing abloom values amateur more than Murphy, which is why the Sox have Mayer and not Mutphy.

 

But would you deal Mayer for two years of Bieber?

 

I certainly wouldn't, but I understand why the values work out. It's all about proven commodity vs. potential.

[cp176]

What most of us believe, and what we think has been proven over time, is that JH is willing to have one of the highest payrolls in baseball every year, but he also has his limits, which he showed most recently by letting Mookie go.

 

And we know that JH could spend much more than he does if he really wanted to, by digging into his own pocket, but he's shown that he isn't willing to do it.

 

So what is it exactly that you disagree with, and what is it that you believe about JH and his spending? Or what have I not stated properly?

 

I do believe that he has limits. You can obviously see what a ruckus it causes here every time I say that he has no budgetary limits. Only a complete moron would think that he doesn't. why do you think I say it? I will add though that people who think that they might know or even suggest what his limits might be are no different than the people who think that he can afford the world. Their opinions are no better nor are they worse than any others. You stated everything properly!

[moonslav59]

Not going to get a player - at least not one worthwhile - with 4 plus years of control left. Why would any team trade a ore-arb star player for an A ball shortstop?

 

Then I do t trade Mayer just now.

[moonslav59]

If you’re trading Mayer for pitching, BTV values roughly equal to 2 years of Shane Bieber.

 

Of course, they also value him equally to former abloom trade target Sean Murphy. I’m guessing abloom values amateur more than Murphy, which is why the Sox have Mayer and not Mutphy.

 

But would you deal Mayer for two years of Bieber?

 

Close. I would, if he agreed to an extension.

 

BTV accepted this:

 

Mayer, Wikelman, Walter & Hosmer

for

Rogers, Garrett & Berti

[moonslav59]

BTV accepted:

 

Rafaela, Wikelman, Wink & Hosmer

for

Lopez, Cabrera, Cooper & Soler

[moonslav59]

It seems like the Marlins are the best fit for us to make a trade- perhaps to fill 2-3 slots, but it all comes down to how they value our prospects.

 

They have a young SS that is highly rated, so Mayer may not be who they want.

 

They may want Bleis over Rafaela. They may insist on Bello. They may prefer Mata or Walter over Wikelman.

 

They may laugh at a Duran offer or want him, assuming we take Soler or Garcia as a salary dump.

 

They may want Hosmer or someone else we value lowly- like Wink, Seabold or Dalbec.

[notin]

It seems like the Marlins are the best fit for us to make a trade- perhaps to fill 2-3 slots, but it all comes down to how they value our prospects.

 

They have a young SS that is highly rated, so Mayer may not be who they want.

 

They may want Bleis over Rafaela. They may insist on Bello. They may prefer Mata or Walter over Wikelman.

 

They may laugh at a Duran offer or want him, assuming we take Soler or Garcia as a salary dump.

 

They may want Hosmer or someone else we value lowly- like Wink, Seabold or Dalbec.

 

I think Hosmer is off the table with Miami.

 

I don’t know who is on his NTC, but we know Washington was, and his reason for including them was not wanting to go to a rebuilding organization. It seems pretty likely to me Miami would also be on that list for the same reason. Because like Oakland and Pittsburgh (Both of whom I would bet are also on Hosmer’s NTC.), Miami does seem to be in a constant state of rebuilding…

[moonslav59]

I think Hosmer is off the table with Miami.

 

I don’t know who is on his NTC, but we know Washington was, and his reason for including them was not wanting to go to a rebuilding organization. It seems pretty likely to me Miami would also be on that list for the same reason. Because like Oakland and Pittsburgh (Both of whom I would bet are also on Hosmer’s NTC.), Miami does seem to be in a constant state of rebuilding…

 

Being that he is free and gives a veteran presence to a young, "rebuilding team," I think many of the cheap teams might take a freebie like Hosmer. Maybe, not.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Close. I would, if he agreed to an extension.

 

BTV accepted this:

 

Mayer, Wikelman, Walter & Hosmer

for

Rogers, Garrett & Berti

 

Why not aim higher? Only trade top prospects for a top of the rotation anchor -- BTV accepted: Mayer, Yorke, Houck and Schreiber for Alcantara and Garcia. BTV gave Schreiber a high 20.4 rating, but the Fish might want a younger arm instead (where the Sox' farm is maybe deepest).

 

Dealing Mayer, of course, is entirely contingent upon extending Bogaerts longterm -- which, if it happens, we have to assume Bloom and Co. are confident that any nagging injuries that sapped his production will soon be fully healed.

 

Will another $180 million keep X in Boston? It's not $300M, but still makes him a $30 million-dollar man for the next eight years (an additional $10M per on top of his existing $20M for the next three, plus $30M per for the final five, which will take Bogie through age 38)... is that fair enough?

[mvp 78]

He also may not be tradable in 2-3 years.

 

If the Sox sign Bogaerts (or Correa or Turner), they should plan on keeping him for the life of the deal. They also need pitching now, and their best prospect plays the same position (aka “is blocked”) and could certainly get a very good pitcher in return…

 

He also doesn't have to play SS for the entire deal. They can move him to 3b, LF, or somewhere else if Mayer is ready.

[mvp 78]

Well for the record boys i do and did know what a strawman argument is. It is an expression that is used so frequently that I don't use it. As for the word decimate with respect to what numerous posters on here have said, I don't feel the need to look back to specifically name them. DD did not decimate anything when the word is used to connote what I think it is meant to connote here. If someone wants to think that he just wiped us out with respect to our fresh young talent by trading a bunch of really average players for the most part, it is their prerogative. i choose to not believe that at all. I'm willing of course to give Bloom more time well knowing that my opinion much like most of yours means 0. I also absolutely believe that he has a long way to go to even be comparable in terms of accomplishments to the man he replaced. Remember though also, I agree with very few of you when you start gong on about how much money JH is and will be willing to spend to keep the franchise moving.

 

When DD left, the farm was bottom 5 in the league I believe. Whether it was decimated or not is up for interpretation and I'm not sure where that discussion started anyway.

[mvp 78]

And the repeated resets and occasional tight controls. Remember when Cherington had to trade Marco Scutaro just to afford Cody Ross? Those are not Yankee/Dodger spending habits…

 

And it was a really dumb move by Ben the Boob, moving a $6M 2.8 fWAR guy. He's lucky that Ross had decent year, but his career fell apart after that.

[mvp 78]

It seems like the Marlins are the best fit for us to make a trade- perhaps to fill 2-3 slots, but it all comes down to how they value our prospects.

 

They have a young SS that is highly rated, so Mayer may not be who they want.

 

They may want Bleis over Rafaela. They may insist on Bello. They may prefer Mata or Walter over Wikelman.

 

They may laugh at a Duran offer or want him, assuming we take Soler or Garcia as a salary dump.

 

They may want Hosmer or someone else we value lowly- like Wink, Seabold or Dalbec.

 

If I'm the Marlins, I'm asking for Bleis, Bello and Rafaela. If I'm the Sox, why am I inclined to move Bello at all?

 

Bello 9/1 - end of season (2 NYY, TOR, BAL, CIN, TEX):

31.1 IP

31 K

12 BB

365 BABIP

2.59 ERA

2.70 FIP

3.51 xFIP

 

At age 23 with 6 years of control.

[notin]

And it was a really dumb move by Ben the Boob, moving a $6M 2.8 fWAR guy. He's lucky that Ross had decent year, but his career fell apart after that.

 

There was something about his contract and its impact on the luxury tax.

 

He did get lucky getting that one career year out of Ross…

[notin]

He also doesn't have to play SS for the entire deal. They can move him to 3b, LF, or somewhere else if Mayer is ready.

 

I would assume he should move at some point. He’s been openly resistant in the past, however. And he just didn’t like third base when he came up.

 

Granted all of that was a long time ago and he could certainly feel different now…

[Bellhorn04]

When DD left, the farm was bottom 5 in the league I believe. Whether it was decimated or not is up for interpretation and I'm not sure where that discussion started anyway.

 

"DD decimated the farm" has been a thing here for years.