A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I would assume he should move at some point. He’s been openly resistant in the past, however. And he just didn’t like third base when he came up.

 

Granted all of that was a long time ago and he could certainly feel different now…

 

Bloom may also be looking at the recent Lindor deal: star shortstop, age 28, 5.4 WAR... but compare that to one of the guys he was traded for -- Gimenez, now a star shortstop at age 24, 7.2 WAR in his first full season, third in the AL behind only Judge and Ohtani.

 

Gimenez also makes about $340 million less than Lindor...

[mvp 78]

There was something about his contract and its impact on the luxury tax.

 

He did get lucky getting that one career year out of Ross…

 

https://www.overthemonster.com/2012/10/23/3542450/revisiting-the-marco-scutaro-trade

 

I still feel like they should have shed salary elsewhere, but they ended up winning it all in 2013 after getting rid of Scutaro in 2012.

[mvp 78]

I would assume he should move at some point. He’s been openly resistant in the past, however. And he just didn’t like third base when he came up.

 

Granted all of that was a long time ago and he could certainly feel different now…

 

Yeah, the conversation is a little easier when the player starts aging... maybe.

[moonslav59]

If I'm the Marlins, I'm asking for Bleis, Bello and Rafaela. If I'm the Sox, why am I inclined to move Bello at all?

 

Bello 9/1 - end of season (2 NYY, TOR, BAL, CIN, TEX):

31.1 IP

31 K

12 BB

365 BABIP

2.59 ERA

2.70 FIP

3.51 xFIP

 

At age 23 with 6 years of control.

 

I'm not looking to trade Bello, either.

[mvp 78]

MLBTR is project the following ARB salaries for 2023:

 

Devers 16.9

Dugie 6.9

Pivetta 5.9

[notin]

MLBTR is project the following ARB salaries for 2023:

 

Devers 16.9

Dugie 6.9

Pivetta 5.9

 

Looking at the full list, the most interesting of the obvious non-tender candidates is Cody Bellinger. No way the Dodgers should even think about any other option with him.

 

But I also wonder if Yandy Diaz at $5.4mill is a non-tender possibility for the Rays, who have a ton of pending cases…

[mvp 78]

Looking at the full list, the most interesting of the obvious non-tender candidates is Cody Bellinger. No way the Dodgers should even think about any other option with him.

 

But I also wonder if Yandy Diaz at $5.4mill is a non-tender possibility for the Rays, who have a ton of pending cases…

 

Brewers may nontender Renfroe. That $11M is pretty high for him! Brewers may want to sell on his career high 2.5 fWAR season in 2022!!!

[mvp 78]

Do the Dodgers just try dealing Bellinger? He's a really weird case. Would someone take a risk on him at that arb figure?

[mvp 78]

Yaz 2 and Logan Webb have about the same service time, but Webb is projected to have a smaller arb figure. If they both went to FA today, Webb's contract would dwarf Yaz 2's.

[mvp 78]

They project the Rays to have 42M in ARB payroll when they only had 51M in payroll in 2022. Wonder if they will end up nontendering/trading guys like Ji-Man Choi and Yarborough.

[notin]

Do the Dodgers just try dealing Bellinger? He's a really weird case. Would someone take a risk on him at that arb figure?

 

No. He’s untradable…

[notin]

They project the Rays to have 42M in ARB payroll when they only had 51M in payroll in 2022. Wonder if they will end up nontendering/trading guys like Ji-Man Choi and Yarborough.

 

They’ll definitely be moving a few pieces one way or another. And certainly not picking up Kiermeier’s option

 

Choi is an obvious one. Yarborough would also not surprise anyone, either.

 

If they do decide to trade Diaz, hopefully Bloom is there making offers…

Edited October 10, 2022 by notin

[notin]

Brewers may nontender Renfroe. That $11M is pretty high for him! Brewers may want to sell on his career high 2.5 fWAR season in 2022!!!

 

We should have kept Bradley and sent him back…

[mvp 78]

They’ll definitely be moving a few pieces one way or another. And certainly not picking up Kiermeier’s option

 

Choi is an obvious one. Yarborough would also not surprise anyone, either.

 

If they do decide to trade Diaz, hopefully Bloom is there making offers…

 

If they aren't picking up Kiermaier, he'd look in CF in BOS if they are going to move Kiké to SS.

[mvp 78]

We should have kept Bradley and sent him back…

 

Do we still retain the option for 2023?

[moonslav59]

Do we still retain the option for 2023?

 

I would think we still pay the $8M buyout.

[notin]

If they aren't picking up Kiermaier, he'd look in CF in BOS if they are going to move Kiké to SS.

 

He’s never healthy.

 

Victor Robles is another DFA candidate with some defensive chops and at least shows up for work…

[mvp 78]

He’s never healthy.

 

Victor Robles is another DFA candidate with some defensive chops and at least shows up for work…

 

When Robles shows up for work it's as a AAAA guy.

[moonslav59]

2023 Red Sox Projected Lux Tax Budget

($Millions)- Not counting Free Agents

 

25.6 Sale

23.3 Story

10.0 Kike

9.4 Barnes

4.7 Whitlock

73.0 TOTAL Under Contract

 

Arbs (MLBTR Projections):

16.9 Devers 3rd or 3

6.9 Verdugo 2nd of 3

5.9 Pivetta 2nd of 3

2.3 Brasier 3rd of 3 (non tender?)

2.2 Arroyo 2nd of 4

1.6 Refsnyder 2nd of 3

1.5 Cordero 2nd of 3 (non tender?)

1.3 McGuire 2nd of 3

1.1 Taylor 2nd of 4

.90 Almonte 1st of 3

.90 Chang 1st of 3

~41.0 TOTAL Arb Estimates (assuming no non tenders)

 

TOTAL: $114M

 

~$2.3 40 Man Players in Minors

~$1.7 0-3 yr Bonus Pool

~$16 Player Benefits

 

$134M Lux Tax Total Before any additions

 

Lux Tax Line for 2023: $232M

$98M remaining to spend to reach the Lux Tax line.

 

Options/Buy Outs:

$20M x 3 Bogey (Player Option) Will likely be offered a QO, if not extended.

$13M x 2 Paxton (Paxton has $4M player option) no Buy Out.

$12M Pham w $1.5M buyout

$8M JBJ Buyout (does not count on ’23 tax line)

 

Possible QO: Eovaldi (maybe), Wacha (not likely), JD (very unlikely)

[Nick]

I sure would be tempted to spend big on starters for short deals. Two or three years max.

[moonslav59]

The End of 2022 Forty Man Roster

(Assuming no options, extensions or re-signings, but all arbs are listed)

In order of seniority on 40 Man (Red=Bubble)

 

Barnes

Sale

Devers (arb 3 of 3)

Brasier (3 of 3)

Taylor (2 of 4)

DHern

Dalbec

Verdugo (2 of 3)

Pivetta (2 of 3)

Arroyo (2 of 3)

Houck

Mata

Wong

Seabold

Whitlock

Kike

RHern

Duran

Crawford

Downs

Winckowski

Bello

Story

Danish

Cordero (2 of 3)

Schreiber

Refsnyder (2 of 3)

Ort

McGuire (1 of 3)

Hosmer

Kelly

Bazardo

Casas

Almonte (1 of 3)

Chang (1 of 3)

German

McGee

 

That's 37 players plus maybe 4 Rule 5'ers...

 

Rule 5:

Wilyer Abreu

Ceddanne Rafaela

Brandon Walter

Thaddeus Ward

 

Enmanuel Valdez (Minor League FA)

 

Not Likely to be protected or drafted:

Murphy

Hamilton

Paulino

Wikelman

V Santos

J Wallace

Bonaci

Cottam

Granberg

 

 

Edited October 11, 2022 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

I sure would be tempted to spend big on starters for short deals. Two or three years max.

 

Sounds good, but most of the best of the best get 4+ years.

[notin]

The End of 2022 Forty Man Roster

(Assuming no options, extensions or re-signings, but all arbs are listed)

In order of seniority on 40 Man (Red=Bubble)

 

Barnes

Sale

Devers (arb 3 of 3)

Brasier (3 of 3)

Taylor (2 of 4)

DHern

Dalbec

Verdugo (2 of 3)

Pivetta (2 of 3)

Arroyo (2 of 3)

Houck

Mata

Wong

Seabold

Whitlock

Kike

RHern

Duran

Crawford

Downs

Winckowski

Bello

Story

Danish

Cordero (2 of 3)

Schreiber

Refsnyder (2 of 3)

Ort

McGuire (1 of 3)

Hosmer

Kelly

Bazardo

Casas

Almonte (1 of 3)

Chang (1 of 3)

German

McGee

 

That's 37 players plus maybe 4 Rule 5'ers...

 

Rule 5:

Wilyer Abreu

Ceddanne Rafaela

Brandon Walter

Thaddeus Ward

 

Not Likely to be protected or drafted:

Murphy

Hamilton

Paulino

Wikelman

V Santos

J Wallace

Bonaci

Cottam

Granberg

 

 

 

I don’t think Cordero gets protected. He has been DFAd before and is eligible for arbitration. I suspect he will be non-tendered…

[notin]

The End of 2022 Forty Man Roster

(Assuming no options, extensions or re-signings, but all arbs are listed)

In order of seniority on 40 Man (Red=Bubble)

 

Barnes

Sale

Devers (arb 3 of 3)

Brasier (3 of 3)

Taylor (2 of 4)

DHern

Dalbec

Verdugo (2 of 3)

Pivetta (2 of 3)

Arroyo (2 of 3)

Houck

Mata

Wong

Seabold

Whitlock

Kike

RHern

Duran

Crawford

Downs

Winckowski

Bello

Story

Danish

Cordero (2 of 3)

Schreiber

Refsnyder (2 of 3)

Ort

McGuire (1 of 3)

Hosmer

Kelly

Bazardo

Casas

Almonte (1 of 3)

Chang (1 of 3)

German

McGee

 

That's 37 players plus maybe 4 Rule 5'ers...

 

Rule 5:

Wilyer Abreu

Ceddanne Rafaela

Brandon Walter

Thaddeus Ward

 

Not Likely to be protected or drafted:

Murphy

Hamilton

Paulino

Wikelman

V Santos

J Wallace

Bonaci

Cottam

Granberg

 

 

 

 

Enmanuel Valdez?

[moonslav59]

Enmanuel Valdez?

 

Yes, I forgot him. He's apparently not Rule 5 but a minor league FA.

 

I went back and added him.

[moonslav59]

I don’t think Cordero gets protected. He has been DFAd before and is eligible for arbitration. I suspect he will be non-tendered…

 

I meant to highlight him in RED.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

https://sports.yahoo.com/wittenmyer-cubs-among-trendsetters-openly-015436551.html

 

... interesting gripe column about "smart-guy front offices" spreading disinformation to fan bases in attempts to cover up -- you name it: tanking, not spending, not trying to win, pretending to go for it, fans deserve more, etc.

 

It comes from a Cubs' perspective, but here's a familiar quote that sounds like Sam Kennedy channeling Chaim Bloom: “We absolutely want to compete next year. We also want to build something really special for the fans. We want to build something stable, something lasting. And that’s the lens that we’re going to view our transactions this winter.”

 

The speaker was actually Chicago team president Jed Hoyer, once a Red Sox interim GM and disciple of Theo Epstein. In fact, this is the first line in the column: "Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein finally did it."

 

This is why it's doubtful Bloom is on the hot seat with Boston ownership. He's doing exactly what they hired him to do.

[moonslav59]

https://sports.yahoo.com/wittenmyer-cubs-among-trendsetters-openly-015436551.html

 

... interesting gripe column about "smart-guy front offices" spreading disinformation to fan bases in attempts to cover up -- you name it: tanking, not spending, not trying to win, pretending to go for it, fans deserve more, etc.

 

It comes from a Cubs' perspective, but here's a familiar quote that sounds like Sam Kennedy channeling Chaim Bloom: “We absolutely want to compete next year. We also want to build something really special for the fans. We want to build something stable, something lasting. And that’s the lens that we’re going to view our transactions this winter.”

 

The speaker was actually Chicago team president Jed Hoyer, once a Red Sox interim GM and disciple of Theo Epstein. In fact, this is the first line in the column: "Jed Hoyer and Theo Epstein finally did it."

 

This is why it's doubtful Bloom is on the hot seat with Boston ownership. He's doing exactly what they hired him to do.

 

It's something most of us know, already, but I do think they and many of us felt like we had an opening day roster that could compete for a playoff slot that we ended up missing by 8 games.

 

It was also obvious that this was not the year they chose to go "all in" or even nearly all in.

[notin]

Yes, I forgot him. He's apparently not Rule 5 but a minor league FA.

 

I went back and added him.

 

 

Soxprospects.com lists him as Rule 5 eligible on his page, but not on their list of eligibles…

[notin]

It's something most of us know, already, but I do think they and many of us felt like we had an opening day roster that could compete for a playoff slot that we ended up missing by 8 games.

 

It was also obvious that this was not the year they chose to go "all in" or even nearly all in.

 

Hopefully fans get that trying to build something sustainable and be competitive at the same time is a difficult task. Know why? Because they’re both difficult tasks individually.

 

Just doing one doesn’t guarantee any success at it. We’ve all seen that before multiple times…