A Realistic View at 2023: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

A gap that includes Margot, Kopech, Moncada and Espinal, not to mention Benintendi…

 

Why mention Benintendi when Bloom traded him, though?

 

The fact remains that DD didn't trade anyone who has become a bona fide star yet.

 

Espinal might be getting there.

Edited October 5, 2022 by Bellhorn04

[mvp 78]

Not sure that Seabold and Downs are a lock to be with the team next Spring.

[mvp 78]

Why mention Benintendi when Bloom traded him, though?

 

The fact remains that DD didn't trade anyone who has become a bona fide star yet.

 

Espinal might be getting there.

 

Espinal was the guy I was forgetting about. He's good, but he's not a star. He shouldn't have been an All Star this season. He's already 27. His glove is decent, but a 99 wRC+ isn't going to get you on a Wheaties box.

[moonslav59]

Why mention Benintendi when Bloom traded him, though?

 

The fact remains that DD didn't trade anyone who has become a bona fide star yet.

 

Espinal might be getting there.

 

This is a good point, but even if we grant that all trades were worth, it, the state of the farm, after Devers (the ones we kept and traded) took a nose dive and is partially responsible for where we are today. The farm problem began before DD in actuality. He maximized some of the weakness by trading over-hyped prospects before they were exposed. It still doesn't change the effect on where we are now.

Edited October 5, 2022 by moonslav59

[notin]

Why mention Benintendi when Bloom traded him, though?

 

The fact remains that DD didn't trade anyone who has become a bona fide star yet.

 

Espinal might be getting there.

 

I was just mentioning farmhand from that time frame…

[cp176]

It seems many are not patient enough to wait the 4-7 years need to rebuild a farm and start seeing the results of that endeavour.

 

I'm certainly not patient enough to wait 4 to 7 years for anything. I'm actually not as sure as many that Bloom knows as much about farm building that some think he is. I think that Dombrowski obviously has proven that he knew what he was doing time and time again. We will see how Bloom fares going forward.

[Bellhorn04]

This is a good point, but even if we grant that all trades were worth, it, the state of the farm, after Devers (the ones we kept and traded) took a nose dive and is partially responsible for where we are today. The farm problem began before DD in actuality. He maximized some of the weakness by trading over-hyped prospects before they were exposed. It still doesn't change the effect on where we are now.

 

And I agree with all that.

[Hugh2]

This is a good point, but even if we grant that all trades were worth, it, the state of the farm, after Devers (the ones we kept and traded) took a nose dive and is partially responsible for where we are today. The farm problem began before DD in actuality. He maximized some of the weakness by trading over-hyped prospects before they were exposed. It still doesn't change the effect on where we are now.

 

I don’t necessarily buy this. The fact that none of the prospects have panned out that DD traded is at least just as much about luck as it is him trading guys who were overhyped. I’m sure the Sox really liked and had high hopes for Moncada and Kopech, but they really needed a guy like Sale.

 

Perhaps another way to look at things in hindsight would be how different this team might have looked the past five years had they retained much of talent.

[moonslav59]

I don’t necessarily buy this. The fact that none of the prospects have panned out that DD traded is at least just as much about luck as it is him trading guys who were overhyped. I’m sure the Sox really liked and had high hopes for Moncada and Kopech, but they really needed a guy like Sale.

 

Perhaps another way to look at things in hindsight would be how different this team might have looked the past five years had they retained much of talent.

 

Not getting any meaning ful farm help since Devers is very telling and certainly is part of the reason we are where we are, today.

 

Interestingly, the biggest farm help we got was supplied by the Yankee farm and Bloom's choice to pick Whitlock in the Rule 5 draft.

 

IMO, the next best guy who was called up to the Sox and was a plus is Houck.

 

Yes, Moncada, Margot, Kopech and a couple other traded prospects are better than some of who we have, now, but still: our farm has basically sucked.

 

This year's late additions, namely Casas and Bello, and some promising prospects knocking on the 2023 door hint at the tide changing, but Devers was called up in 2017. That's a pretty long time with no real boosts beyond what DD got through trades plus Houck.

[notin]

Not sure that Seabold and Downs are a lock to be with the team next Spring.

 

I’d take Seabold over Downs. But solely because he’s a pitcher…

[notin]

I don’t necessarily buy this. The fact that none of the prospects have panned out that DD traded is at least just as much about luck as it is him trading guys who were overhyped. I’m sure the Sox really liked and had high hopes for Moncada and Kopech, but they really needed a guy like Sale.

 

Perhaps another way to look at things in hindsight would be how different this team might have looked the past five years had they retained much of talent.

 

It’s not that none of them have planned out. Margot, Moncada, Espinal, and Beeks are all major leaguers with multiple seasons each. The bar was recently raised to “none of them are stars”…

[Larry Cook]

There is no doubt desperate Dave decimated our farm system during his tenure.

 

However, I am pumped about what Hang’em Chaim is in the process of building with our minor league position players.

 

Greenville, Salem and the Florida rookie team were stacked with quality position players.

 

Mayer and blies have a chance to be high end, all star game changers.

 

Yorke, Romero, Anthony, Brannon, lugo, bonaci, and a couple others have a chance to be solid major leaguers.

 

Very exciting time and I am hopeful Hang’em Chaim keeps building. We probably get the 14th pick in the draft and should get a really quality prospect.

[moonslav59]

There is no doubt desperate Dave decimated our farm system during his tenure.

 

However, I am pumped about what Hang’em Chaim is in the process of building with our minor league position players.

 

Greenville, Salem and the Florida rookie team were stacked with quality position players.

 

Mayer and blies have a chance to be high end, all star game changers.

 

Yorke, Romero, Anthony, Brannon, lugo, bonaci, and a couple others have a chance to be solid major leaguers.

 

Very exciting time and I am hopeful Hang’em Chaim keeps building. We probably get the 14th pick in the draft and should get a really quality prospect.

 

I'd add Rafaela, Mata and Walter.

 

We are much deeper and stronger than 3 years ago. 5 years ago, too.

[harmony]

The Red Sox are in the lottery for the top selection in the June 2023 draft but have only an 0.76 percent chance of landing that No. 1 pick:

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2022/10/2023-draft-lottery-odds-finalized.html

[Bellhorn04]

It’s not that none of them have planned out. Margot, Moncada, Espinal, and Beeks are all major leaguers with multiple seasons each. The bar was recently raised to “none of them are stars”…

 

My official bar is set at 2.5 fWAR.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

Last night was emotional for me. Saying goodbye to JD, Xander and Eck on the same night was tough. I loved Eck.

[Bellhorn04]

Eck still looks like a kid. The sign of a man who's had a good life.

[Hugh2]

It’s not that none of them have planned out. Margot, Moncada, Espinal, and Beeks are all major leaguers with multiple seasons each. The bar was recently raised to “none of them are stars”…

 

This is a good point, and some of those other guys were plagued by injury and still very young; although it's not looking great for Yoan Moncada. Michael Kopech on the other hand.......I'm sure we would love him in this rotation heading into next season. Jumping back before DD's time another guy who was highly regarded and never really worked out was Anderson Espinoza. But he was plagued by injury and missed so much developmental time. He's still just 24 and made it to the majors this year. Didn't look great in 18 innings but the stuff is still electric so you never know. Some times there are a lot of really good productive MLB players who don't really bloom until they're in their late 20's.

 

They can't all be Mookie Betts.

[Bellhorn04]

This is a good point, and some of those other guys were plagued by injury and still very young; although it's not looking great for Yoan Moncada. Michael Kopech on the other hand.......I'm sure we would love him in this rotation heading into next season. Jumping back before DD's time another guy who was highly regarded and never really worked out was Anderson Espinoza. But he was plagued by injury and missed so much developmental time. He's still just 24 and made it to the majors this year. Didn't look great in 18 innings but the stuff is still electric so you never know. Some times there are a lot of really good productive MLB players who don't really bloom until they're in their late 20's.

 

They can't all be Mookie Betts.

 

The thing is, when a GM "decimates the farm", you would expect one or two of them to really be missed. Sure it might be nice to still have Kopech, Margot and Espinal, but we're not talking about major losses here. Maybe Kopech will alter that view at some point, we will see.

[notin]

The thing is, when a GM "decimates the farm", you would expect one or two of them to really be missed. Sure it might be nice to still have Kopech, Margot and Espinal, but we're not talking about major losses here. Maybe Kopech will alter that view at some point, we will see.

 

You’re coming up with your own definitions here. The Sox did promote the marquee talent prior to DD being hired, but he dealt away all the fringe talent that the team still needs because of their minimum wage…

[mvp 78]

Last night was emotional for me. Saying goodbye to JD' date=' Xander and Eck on the same night was tough. I loved Eck.[/quote']

 

It was very touching.

[mvp 78]

The thing is, when a GM "decimates the farm", you would expect one or two of them to really be missed. Sure it might be nice to still have Kopech, Margot and Espinal, but we're not talking about major losses here. Maybe Kopech will alter that view at some point, we will see.

 

It's not "major" losses, but the totality of it is what causes the Sox to have to bring JBJ back, find a bunch of pitchers off the scrap heap, etc. Not having appropriate depth at the upper minors and younger cheap talent really hamstrung the Sox from 2020 - 2022.

[moonslav59]

The thing is, when a GM "decimates the farm", you would expect one or two of them to really be missed. Sure it might be nice to still have Kopech, Margot and Espinal, but we're not talking about major losses here. Maybe Kopech will alter that view at some point, we will see.

 

I don't think the word "decimate" is appropriate, when he held onto Devers and a few others that are now looking better than Moncada, Kopech, Margot and others, but no doubt, the farm was weak and got weaker.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's not "major" losses, but the totality of it is what causes the Sox to have to bring JBJ back, find a bunch of pitchers off the scrap heap, etc. Not having appropriate depth at the upper minors and younger cheap talent really hamstrung the Sox from 2020 - 2022.

 

It's still hard to know exactly if the current CBO was forced to do business that way because of his predecessor, or because his new boss chose to hire him because that's how he works.

 

Like some posters have already said -- if the Sox are going to stay over the tax limit anyway, why not just spend more for a better product.

 

There's too much finger-pointing at this GM or that one, when we all know the Red Sox' worsts and firsts are all organizational overlaps. Epstein was great, when he was allowed to enhance a roster he inherited that already had Pedro, Manny, Damon, Wake, Lowe and Varitek, etc.

[cp176]

The thing is, when a GM "decimates the farm", you would expect one or two of them to really be missed. Sure it might be nice to still have Kopech, Margot and Espinal, but we're not talking about major losses here. Maybe Kopech will alter that view at some point, we will see.

 

Our farm system was a long way from being decimated for sure. Anytime any trade is made someone could claim that the farm was for sure weakened. Trades get made some are bigger deals than others. The ones that DD made were for the most part excellent and made our team better. We look at a lot of things from a hindsight perspective here. I do as well but constantly whining about everything bad that Dave Dombrowski did is as ridiculous as making it sound as though Chaim Bloom is an incredible farm builder. Jury is still out. I hope that he is. I guess adding people to the rosters is a good thing in the long run. But on the other hand whining about things sometimes is just a good outlet for a fan who doesn't have much to look forward to unless they are willing to wait 4-7 years right. lol Bloom is the guy in charge and I think deserves to be supported at least for now.

[oldtimer]

So if we are able to resign Bogey at around $25Mil for 5 years, then our field players look like:

 

Devers 3rd

Bogey SS

Story 2nd

Casas 1st

Verdugo LF

Hernandez CF

Impact Player RF (Could this be Rafaela)?

McGuire C

Impact Player DH

 

Arroyo Util IF

Hosmer Util !st

Refsnyder Util OF

Wong BU C

 

Pretty Expensive group and not fully competitive with the Jays, Astros and Yankees who will also try to improve. May have to avoid paying big for a DH but we need both power hitting and depth. It is also a concern with the 162 game grind whether we have the depth available on thee 40 man as Rafaela and Casas appear to be the only two field players in the minors that are likely to make the jump in

2023. I hope the experiment with Dalbec and Codero is over.

[mvp 78]

I don't think the word "decimate" is appropriate, when he held onto Devers and a few others that are now looking better than Moncada, Kopech, Margot and others, but no doubt, the farm was weak and got weaker.

 

Which pitching prospect did we hold onto that was desirable at the time that is now better than Kopech?

[mvp 78]

It's still hard to know exactly if the current CBO was forced to do business that way because of his predecessor, or because his new boss chose to hire him because that's how he works.

 

It's a little from Column A and a little from Column B.

[Bellhorn04]

It's not "major" losses, but the totality of it is what causes the Sox to have to bring JBJ back, find a bunch of pitchers off the scrap heap, etc. Not having appropriate depth at the upper minors and younger cheap talent really hamstrung the Sox from 2020 - 2022.

 

I see some of that, but the team did make the ALCS in 2021, and did they really "have to bring JBJ back"?

 

And frankly they should have spent Story's money on pitching.

 

We didn't really have to fail in 2022.

[mvp 78]

Our farm system was a long way from being decimated for sure. Anytime any trade is made someone could claim that the farm was for sure weakened. Trades get made some are bigger deals than others. The ones that DD made were for the most part excellent and made our team better. We look at a lot of things from a hindsight perspective here. I do as well but constantly whining about everything bad that Dave Dombrowski did is as ridiculous as making it sound as though Chaim Bloom is an incredible farm builder. Jury is still out. I hope that he is. I guess adding people to the rosters is a good thing in the long run. But on the other hand whining about things sometimes is just a good outlet for a fan who doesn't have much to look forward to unless they are willing to wait 4-7 years right. lol Bloom is the guy in charge and I think deserves to be supported at least for now.

 

Bloom only has a top 10 farm because he hasn't traded prospects and lucked into the best prospect in a recent draft. I don't think anyone thinks he has a magical touch. They just prefer his philosophy.

 

DD was exactly what the Sox needed at that point in time. They had a young core that were in a window and ready to explode. He made the great Red Sox team of all time. The biggest problem was what he did after the WS win (Eovaldi contract and Sale contract). We spend time talking about him trading off prospects because this is a baseball forum and we don't have anything else to talk about. He made some bad deals (Thornburg) and had a propensity to throw in an extra prospect at the end of a deal just to push it over the finish line. This isn't an issue short term, but it's part of the reason the Sox have struggled recently. Again, flags fly forever and you can't diminish what DD did in 2018.