A Realistic View at 2022: Part III

[Bellhorn04]

If this guy wasn’t owed the rest of the Bungled Big contract that DD gave him Sale wouldn’t be worth all the time, and Speculation he’s getting.

 

So you're saying if he didn't have a contract with us we wouldn't be talking about him. Yeah, I guess that's true!

[Old Red]

So you're saying if he didn't have a contract with us we wouldn't be talking about him. Yeah, I guess that's true!

 

Not just a contract, but a Big contract. I thought the trade was great at the time, but the extension was the worst of the worst.

[Bellhorn04]

Not just a contract, but a Big contract. I thought the trade was great at the time, but the extension was the worst of the worst.

 

Sale/Eovaldi/JDM - all leftover big contracts from DD that have produced little in 2022.

[Old Red]

Sale/Eovaldi/JDM - all leftover big contracts from DD that have produced little in 2022.

 

That is true. Luckily JD, and Evol’s will be gone after this year. JD falling off the cliff has been the big surprise to me, and after he got off to a good start this year too.

[moonslav59]

That wasn't my point I was making an analogy, I could say 94 MPH or 93 MPH or 99 MPH. What matters is his velocity relative to his average velocity. His stuff is not gone.

 

I never said "gone," and I happen to think he will pitch very well, next year, if healthy.

 

I just questioned your term "not diminished," and yes, the sample size is small for both of us to be saying yes it is or no it isn't.

 

Yes, 2019 was before the surgery, so I'm fine not counting that year, and what is left is slim pickings.

 

I don't know about spin rate, so if it has not diminished in his 5 IP sample size, I'll take your word for it but still wonder how much meaning that has.

[sk7326]

Dropped to what? 11 per 9? that's still elite. He led the league once with 10.8 and finished 3rd in CY Young voting. His career average is 11.1 So 11 seems right on the mark for him.

 

I am optimistic. It has also been 4 years since he has been one of the league's best pitchers. The team needs him for sure.

[sk7326]

Not just a contract, but a Big contract. I thought the trade was great at the time, but the extension was the worst of the worst.

 

That extension was dicey while it was coming ... but clearly ownership and Dombrowski were doing keg stands then. I've whined online about organizational whiplash and that contract was THE exemplar.

 

The Eovaldi deal was a calculated risk but probably one I'd take again - when healthy he has been good to very good. He has also not been healthy most of the time. Heck, I'd at least kick the tires on what he'd need $$-wise.

[moonslav59]

I am optimistic. It has also been 4 years since he has been one of the league's best pitchers. The team needs him for sure.

 

I'm still a big Sale fan, and I think he can pitch like an ace again, if he can just stay on the mound.

 

However, I do not think he is reliable enough to pencil in as our 30+ start #1 or ace starter for 2023. I also would not pencil in Paxton as our 25+ starter #2 or 3 for next year. Combined, I might plan on them being our #2 starter for the full season, and hope like hell they both stay healthy, or at worse, they are hurt at different times, so we have one at all times.

 

I've liked Pivetta since we got him, but I'd love to pencil him in as our durable, capable and dependable 5th starter, but I know he will more likely be our #3 or 4.

 

I get the argument about using Whitlock as a SP'er, next year. I'd love to keep him in the role that has worked very well, but I understand the value of a 150+ IP starter outweighs that of an 80-100 IP longman/set-up man.

 

So, maybe my template for 2023's rotation looks like this:

 

1. ___ addition ____

2. Sale + Paxton

3. Whitlock

4. Pivetta

5. Crawford/Winckowski/Bell/Mata/Seabold/Murphy/Ward (the best holds the spot)

 

I'd like to see us add a number 3/4 type or some veteran depth, but with so many decent looking prospects, I think Bloom holds the bottom 1-2 rotation slots open for them to fill- like it or not.

[Hugh2]

If this guy wasn’t owed the rest of the Bungled Big contract that DD gave him Sale wouldn’t be worth all the time, and Speculation he’s getting.

 

Aaaaaaand how does this correlate to stuff?

[moonslav59]

Aaaaaaand how does this correlate to stuff?

 

Now, you've really gone, too far.

 

[dgalehouse]

A major problem has been, and still is, the bullpen . One of the worst in MLB. I don't think Sox management has been able to grasp the importance of the bullpen in today's game. The starters do not give you the innings that they once did. Every close game comes down to the bullpens. The Sox are invariably outgunned in that area. Not saying this is the only problem, but it has been a very big one for a while.

[Hugh2]

I never said "gone," and I happen to think he will pitch very well, next year, if healthy.

 

I just questioned your term "not diminished," and yes, the sample size is small for both of us to be saying yes it is or no it isn't.

 

Yes, 2019 was before the surgery, so I'm fine not counting that year, and what is left is slim pickings.

 

I don't know about spin rate, so if it has not diminished in his 5 IP sample size, I'll take your word for it but still wonder how much meaning that has.

 

Again sample size is less relevant here. You can make a good pitch and a hitter gets a hit on soft contact inflating the stats in opposite directions of what you’d expect. But stuff is stuff. If you throw 95, 93, 99 or whatever it’s, that’s what you throw. What your spin rate is is what it’s. This translates to all sports, or any physical act. If I jump 5 feet, I jump 5 feet. It’s not luck, it’s a real outcome. If we look at Chris Sales stuff, despite the small sample size it’s still there. This should have ANYONE optimistic about how he would perform if he can stay on the field.

 

Maybe that’s a BIG IF, maybe people on this forum have zero confidence in his ability to ever stay healthy again. Those are fair viewpoints based on the last few years but let me revert to my original statement that started all this. If Chris Sale can stay healthy he’s still a TOTRS, I’d bet my first born child on that. Because all the picthing data backs it up, sample size be damned. If he was throwing 90 MPH I wouldn’t be stating these facts, because those wouldn’t be them.

[moonslav59]

Again sample size is less relevant here. You can make a good pitch and a hitter gets a hit on soft contact inflating the stats in opposite directions of what you’d expect. But stuff is stuff. If you throw 95, 93, 99 or whatever it’s, that’s what you throw. What your spin rate is is what it’s. This translates to all sports, or any physical act. If I jump 5 feet, I jump 5 feet. It’s not luck, it’s a real outcome. If we look at Chris Sales stuff, despite the small sample size it’s still there. This should have ANYONE optimistic about how he would perform if he can stay on the field.

 

Maybe that’s a BIG IF, maybe people on this forum have zero confidence in his ability to ever stay healthy again. Those are fair viewpoints based on the last few years but let me revert to my original statement that started all this. If Chris Sale can stay healthy he’s still a TOTRS, I’d bet my first born child on that. Because all the picthing data backs it up, sample size be damned. If he was throwing 90 MPH I wouldn’t be stating these facts, because those wouldn’t be them.

 

Okay, but if someone still can throw 95 but can't throw strikes, you'd say his stuff hasn't diminished? (This is just an example. Of course, Sale can still throw strikes.)

 

Does "stuff" include movement on fastballs?

 

Just wondering.

[vegasbob]

Aaaaaaand how does this correlate to stuff?

 

Hugh, here's how it correlates : Sale cannot even throw the baseball, once again, so therefore he has no "stuff'. I understand your point but anyone who looks at Chris Sale as anything except dead money until he actually returns to the mound and earns some has no stuff. Speculating about what he can and cannot do is pointless. He was back, then unluckily took a shot off his finger, then fell down riding his bike. Why is he such a subject of interest ?

[JDavis76]

One thing's for sure, chris freakin' frail's spin rate is nowhere near as good as some of the spin I see spewed here!

[Hugh2]

Okay, but if someone still can throw 95 but can't throw strikes, you'd say his stuff hasn't diminished? (This is just an example. Of course, Sale can still throw strikes.)

 

Does "stuff" include movement on fastballs?

 

Just wondering.

 

No it doesn’t. If you can’t throw strikes it’s either because you’re hurt or your mechanics are off. You can critique mechanics and heal from injury. Now maybe you get hurt and never fully recover and as a result of that you lose your stuff. Some pitchers have amazing stuff but enjoy little success because they don’t have control, but they still had amazing stuff.

[Hugh2]

Hugh, here's how it correlates : Sale cannot even throw the baseball, once again, so therefore he has no "stuff'. I understand your point but anyone who looks at Chris Sale as anything except dead money until he actually returns to the mound and earns some has no stuff. Speculating about what he can and cannot do is pointless. He was back, then unluckily took a shot off his finger, then fell down riding his bike. Why is he such a subject of interest ?

 

I’m placing zero betts on Sale. I made the simple comment that “if he can stay healthy he’s a top of the rotation starter”. That doesn’t mean I have any faith he’s going to be that next year, he has to prove it.

 

I merely am pointing out the FACT that he hasn't lost his stuff. You realize we can measure this right? We have radar guns, and advanced cameras that measure vertical/horizontal drop and spin rate right? Chris Sale still has amazing stuff, he just sucks at staying healthy right now and maybe he always will.

 

Why is this so hard for people to comprehend?

[sk7326]

I'm still a big Sale fan, and I think he can pitch like an ace again, if he can just stay on the mound.

 

However, I do not think he is reliable enough to pencil in as our 30+ start #1 or ace starter for 2023. I also would not pencil in Paxton as our 25+ starter #2 or 3 for next year. Combined, I might plan on them being our #2 starter for the full season, and hope like hell they both stay healthy, or at worse, they are hurt at different times, so we have one at all times.

 

I've liked Pivetta since we got him, but I'd love to pencil him in as our durable, capable and dependable 5th starter, but I know he will more likely be our #3 or 4.

 

I get the argument about using Whitlock as a SP'er, next year. I'd love to keep him in the role that has worked very well, but I understand the value of a 150+ IP starter outweighs that of an 80-100 IP longman/set-up man.

 

So, maybe my template for 2023's rotation looks like this:

 

1. ___ addition ____

2. Sale + Paxton

3. Whitlock

4. Pivetta

5. Crawford/Winckowski/Bell/Mata/Seabold/Murphy/Ward (the best holds the spot)

 

I'd like to see us add a number 3/4 type or some veteran depth, but with so many decent looking prospects, I think Bloom holds the bottom 1-2 rotation slots open for them to fill- like it or not.

 

DeGrom is the obvious prize but I think there is 0% chance he escapes the Mets. Syndegaard would be worthwhile in the more top shelf category. Maybe the Mets would show DeGrom the bag but let Bassitt go. I could see a Rich Hill-type dart throw at a guy like a Chris Archer. I also wouldn't rule out Eovaldi or Wacha being back - they certainly aren't the worst ideas out there is we're talking low 8-figures and short duration.

[moonslav59]

A major problem has been, and still is, the bullpen . One of the worst in MLB. I don't think Sox management has been able to grasp the importance of the bullpen in today's game. The starters do not give you the innings that they once did. Every close game comes down to the bullpens. The Sox are invariably outgunned in that area. Not saying this is the only problem, but it has been a very big one for a while.

 

Since 2018, our starters have not matched the 5.4 IP/GS that rotation gave us on the phenominal 2018 championship team, but it has hovered at 5.0 IP/GS every year, except 2020.

 

IP/GS

5.0 2019

4.1 2020

5.0 2021

5.0 2022

 

The comparative strength of the rotation vs the pen has not been so consistent, and I guess it depends on what stats or eye test you are using.

 

Starters vs Relievers by Rankings in fWAR, ERA-, WHIP, and FIP

 

2018

SP: 8, 4, 6, 8

RP: 13, 3, 12, 6

 

2019

SP: 13, 16, 20, 12

RP: 5, 10, 19, 8

 

2020: N/A

 

2021

SP: 6, 12, 25, 6

RP: 9, 6, 23, 10

 

2022 (looks like both SP & RP dropped, but SP'er by more from '21)

SP: 16, 20, 20, 19

RP: 16, 26, 20, 15

 

Big change here from 2018 but not much from '19 & '20:

Save%/IR scored %

70%/32% 2018

52%/30% 2019

64%/31% 2021

54%/36% 2022

 

[moonslav59]

DeGrom is the obvious prize but I think there is 0% chance he escapes the Mets. Syndegaard would be worthwhile in the more top shelf category. Maybe the Mets would show DeGrom the bag but let Bassitt go. I could see a Rich Hill-type dart throw at a guy like a Chris Archer. I also wouldn't rule out Eovaldi or Wacha being back - they certainly aren't the worst ideas out there is we're talking low 8-figures and short duration.

 

I have no desire 6to give Chris Archer a chance.

 

I think our best bet to find a solid #1 or #2 is via trade or miracle like Whitlock.

[Bellhorn04]

I have no desire 6to give Chris Archer a chance.

 

I think our best bet to find a solid #1 or #2 is via trade or miracle like Whitlock.

 

Miracles are not best bets.

[dgalehouse]

Whitlock looks like a pretty good pitcher . The Sox still seem unsure about how best to utilize him. In any event , he has a long way to go before he can be called a miracle. Let's not get carried away just yet.

[JDavis76]

Whitlock looks like a pretty good pitcher . The Sox still seem unsure about how best to utilize him. In any event , he has a long way to go before he can be called a miracle. Let's not get carried away just yet.

 

As a Yankee fan, he certainly does look like a good pitcher.

 

I guess my hope is that the sox continue to joba chamberlain him.

[Old Red]

Aaaaaaand how does this correlate to stuff?

 

He has no stuff. What’s he pitched like 50 innings since 2019? What ifs, and could haves does nor correlate to having stuff.

[moonslav59]

Miracles are not best bets.

 

Probably signing a FA is a better bet than finding another Whitlock on Rule 5 or waivers.

[moonslav59]

Whitlock looks like a pretty good pitcher . The Sox still seem unsure about how best to utilize him. In any event , he has a long way to go before he can be called a miracle. Let's not get carried away just yet.

 

Whitlock is probably a better bet than rolling the dice with a FA signing, this winter.

 

I didn't say a winning bet- just best bets.

[Old Red]

Whitlock is probably a better bet than rolling the dice with a FA signing, this winter.

 

I didn't say a winning bet- just best bets.

 

Whitlock has not proven anything then he can be a ML starter yet.

[Hugh2]

Hugh, here's how it correlates : Sale cannot even throw the baseball, once again, so therefore he has no "stuff'. I understand your point but anyone who looks at Chris Sale as anything except dead money until he actually returns to the mound and earns some has no stuff. Speculating about what he can and cannot do is pointless. He was back, then unluckily took a shot off his finger, then fell down riding his bike. Why is he such a subject of interest ?

 

He has no stuff. What’s he pitched like 50 innings since 2019? What ifs, and could haves does nor correlate to having stuff.

 

Obviously you have no ideal of what having stuff is. I get you you’re a very cynical person but you don’t get to just change the definition of things. Chris Sale has thrown innings in 2021/2022 since returning from injuries and his “stuff” which includes vertical break, horizontal break, and velocity remain elite. Just because he can’t stay healthy enough to help this team and you get all hot and bothered by it doesn’t change the definition of things.

Edited August 22, 2022 by A Red Sox fan named Hugh

[Old Red]

Obviously you have no ideal of having stuff. I get you you’re a very cynical person but you don’t get to just change the definition of things. Chris Sale has thrown innings in 2021/2022 since returning from injuries and his “stuff” which includes vertical break, horizontal break, and velocity remain elite. Just because he can’t stay healthy enough to help this team and you get all hot and bothered by it doesn’t change the definition of things.

You have your opinion, and I have mine. I’m not changing your opinion, and that’s fine, and your not changing mine, or anyone else by the sound of it. Let’s move on to someone who is actually playing.

[sk7326]

Whitlock has not proven anything then he can be a ML starter yet.

 

He was decent enough in his actual turns - he just got hurt and then the bullpen needed him.