2022 Starting Rotation Thread

[Bellhorn04]

video of Paxton bullpen

 

Nice optimism by Pete!

[notin]

I just don't buy the "mental fortitude" crap. Overworked? Sure.

 

Ditto. I might feel differently if I actually knew Barnes and knew he was a stress case. But I don’t.

 

I do think most of the players who can’t handle the mental aspect get weeded out in the minors...

[notin]

The thing is, Barnes just sucks every August: '18 ERA 9.64, '19 ERA 5.23, '20 ERA 6.30, '21 ERA 13.50...

 

If it's obvious to fans, the Sox and Matt know, too... and so far have no answers.

 

That’s actually better evidence that it’s a durability issue...

[mvp 78]

Ditto. I might feel differently if I actually knew Barnes and knew he was a stress case. But I don’t.

 

I do think most of the players who can’t handle the mental aspect get weeded out in the minors...

 

Only exception would be some athletic marvel who can sneak by I guess? It takes a certain amount of fortitude to even catch a can of corn in front of 30,000 people.

[notin]

Only exception would be some athletic marvel who can sneak by I guess? It takes a certain amount of fortitude to even catch a can of corn in front of 30,000 people.

 

My experience with most “athletic marvels” is confidence is not their problem. Humility, maybe? But not confidence...

[dgalehouse]

Matt Barnes is a career 4.00 ERA guy. He will have his good moments, but probably not the guy you want to count on too much as a closer.

[moonslav59]

It could have just as easily been the increased workload over his ridiculously light 2020. Fans like to label every slump as mental far too fast, like we did with Price until it suddenly didn’t apply any more...

 

Because he was pitching so well, his pitches thrown were not higher than his norm, by the time August 7th rolled around.

[moonslav59]

Matt Barnes is a career 4.00 ERA guy. He will have his good moments, but probably not the guy you want to count on too much as a closer.

 

His OPS against has been under .706 for 5 seasons and under .666 for 4 of the last 5 seasons.

 

He likely won't be the best closer in '22, but he should be okay to fine. While his 80% save rtae was not great in '21, it wasn't bad, either.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I always thought it was overwork for Barnes (though the closeups of him failing to spit are always a shaky visual).

 

It seemed like it started when the Red Sox tried to use him like Andrew Miller in the teens -- in high leverage situations, no matter the inning. Those are really more work than the closer, who throws to guys anywhere in the lineup in the 9th, usually with the bases empty.

[mvp 78]

I always thought it was overwork for Barnes (though the closeups of him failing to spit are always a shaky visual).

 

It seemed like it started when the Red Sox tried to use him like Andrew Miller in the teens -- in high leverage situations, no matter the inning. Those are really more work than the closer, who throws to guys anywhere in the lineup in the 9th, usually with the bases empty.

 

If you look at the game logs, the wheels came off on 8/7 when the Sox tried to pitch him twice in a double header. Whoopsie.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If you look at the game logs, the wheels came off on 8/7 when the Sox tried to pitch him twice in a double header. Whoopsie.

 

By then, guys on this forum had stats that he was ineffective on back-to-back days, not hours. But Boston has been pushing him hard since at least '19.

[moonslav59]

It's not just about IP...

 

Barnes Pitches throw before AUG 7th:

 

665 2021

915 2019

852 2018

 

Pitches per IP by season:

 

2018: 18.0 (1109/61.2)

2019: 20.4 (1311/64.1)

2020: 19.8 (455/23.0)

2021: 16.8 (919/54.2)

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It's not just about IP...

 

Barnes Pitches throw before AUG 7th:

 

665 2021

915 2019

852 2018

 

Pitches per IP by season:

 

2018: 18.0 (1109/61.2)

2019: 20.4 (1311/64.1)

2020: 19.8 (455/23.0)

2021: 16.8 (919/54.2)

 

 

Thanks -- and I don't want you to research this -- but we also know that the "type" of pitches has to make a difference, as well. Barnes coming in to face the heart of the order with baserunners aboard in the 7th or 8th has to present different stress than Kimbrel starting the 9th with the lead and throwing to the 7-8-9 hitters.

 

Now, certain guys who just aren't as effective coming into the 8th or in a tie game -- instead of a clean 9th inning save situation -- are candidates with what we might call a mental issue.

[mvp 78]

Still waiting on results.

 

RESULTS ARE IN:

 

@byJulianMack

Cora said Sale’s scheduled MRI showed that his rib fracture is “healing.” Said the next step for Sale is to see how he feels and begin throwing. Seems as if it still might be a while before Sale is a full go.

 

Yay.

[iortiz]

Realistically when is he expected to pitch?

[moonslav59]

Thanks -- and I don't want you to research this -- but we also know that the "type" of pitches has to make a difference, as well. Barnes coming in to face the heart of the order with baserunners aboard in the 7th or 8th has to present different stress than Kimbrel starting the 9th with the lead and throwing to the 7-8-9 hitters.

 

Now, certain guys who just aren't as effective coming into the 8th or in a tie game -- instead of a clean 9th inning save situation -- are candidates with what we might call a mental issue.

 

It's hard to know with Barnes. I think last year was the first time he was the clear closer for a long stretch, and he was lights out for 4 months. He followed that with 8 bad games and 8 s0-s0 games. He pitched 1 inning in the playoffs.

 

I've always liked Barnes, but I share the concerns everyone seems to have. In many key categories, he's been in the top 20-30% of all RP'ers. In others, he near average, and a select few below average.

 

I'm staying optimistic with him, but I'm not convinced of anything- good or bad.

[Noles_1335]

Anyone who thinks Hill actually gives this team a shot at a win needs to re-evaluate how they think they truly understand the game…. What a waste of a roster spot and payroll! Hell, give a young guy a chance, Groome, Mata, Seabold. What would it hurt?

[moonslav59]

Anyone who thinks Hill actually gives this team a shot at a win needs to re-evaluate how they think they truly understand the game…. What a waste of a roster spot and payroll! Hell, give a young guy a chance, Groome, Mata, Seabold. What would it hurt?

 

I guess I don't understand the game.

[Larry Cook]

Anyone who thinks Hill actually gives this team a shot at a win needs to re-evaluate how they think they truly understand the game…. What a waste of a roster spot and payroll! Hell, give a young guy a chance, Groome, Mata, Seabold. What would it hurt?

 

And you are basing this on one spring training outing?

[moonslav59]

And you are basing this on one spring training outing?

 

Not only that, but starting Mata, a guy on the IL would really show you know nothing about the game.

 

Seabold is struggling, mightily, and Groome isn't even above Whitlock, Winckowski and others on the depth chart for starters.

 

Hill has pitched very well for many years. I'll take my chances with him and his measly $5M contract.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not only that, but starting Mata, a guy on the IL would really show you know nothing about the game.

 

Seabold is struggling, mightily, and Groome isn't even above Whitlock, Winckowski and others on the depth chart for starters.

 

Hill has pitched very well for many years. I'll take my chances with him and his measly $5M contract.

 

Every year, Rich defies the cliche by showing he's over himself.

[notin]

Every year, Rich defies the cliche by showing he's over himself.

 

By showing he’s over the hill?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

By showing he’s over the hill?

 

Only if he steps on the rubber (which is better than guys his age who are under the hill).

[Noles_1335]

I was simply implying that giving the younger guys who aren’t ready for the recliner a chance before relying on a 42 year old guy! That 5 mil could’ve went for a RH guy which we need!

[moonslav59]

I was simply implying that giving the younger guys who aren’t ready for the recliner a chance before relying on a 42 year old guy! That 5 mil could’ve went for a RH guy which we need!

 

You stated we know nothing about baseball for supporting a 42 year old with a strong record of pitching extremely well at an advanced age.

 

If we had chose to spend that $5M on someone else, it still should have been a pitcher- not a hitter. Anyone who knows anything about baseball would know that!

[moonslav59]

I feel more confident with Hill on the mound than Wacha,

 

The issue might be, can he stay on the mound for over 100 or 140 innings, this year?

[notin]

I was simply implying that giving the younger guys who aren’t ready for the recliner a chance before relying on a 42 year old guy! That 5 mil could’ve went for a RH guy which we need!

 

We could have brought Martin Perez back!!! Or Vince Velasquez!! Or Danny Duffy!!

 

I’m guessing you haven’t seen what $5mill buys these days.

 

(Also, younger doesn’t always mean better. Do you think 29yo Chad Kuhl is better than 38yo Max Scherzer?)

Edited April 2, 2022 by notin

[notin]

Anyone who thinks Hill actually gives this team a shot at a win needs to re-evaluate how they think they truly understand the game…. What a waste of a roster spot and payroll! Hell, give a young guy a chance, Groome, Mata, Seabold. What would it hurt?

 

You do realize the Sox still have Groome, Mata, Seabold, etc, right?

 

If Hill doesn’t work out or gets hurt, then we give those guys a chance.

 

What would be dumb would be just counting on the younger guy and hoping it all worked out…

[Bellhorn04]

You do realize the Sox still have Groome, Mata, Seabold, etc, right?

 

If Hill doesn’t work out or gets hurt, then we give those guys a chance.

 

What would be dumb would be just counting on the younger guy and hoping it all worked out…

 

That about covers it.

[dgalehouse]

Ditto. I might feel differently if I actually knew Barnes and knew he was a stress case. But I don’t.

 

I do think most of the players who can’t handle the mental aspect get weeded out in the minors...

 

A lot of fans are too quick to use the " choke" label. For the most part , these guys ( Barnes included) are pros who have dealt with high stress situations many , many times.