A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[notin]

You have a point about Schwarber, but he reminds me of David Ortiz, who didn't do squat for the Twins but blossomed with the Sox because it was a better lineup, which he made even better, especially in the postseasons of 2004, 2007, and 2013.

 

Well, Ortiz was abour 4 years younger at the time and had about 800 fewer career PA's. And Schwarber also came to Boston already in proud possession of a World Series ring as he was in a lineup with former MVP Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Willson Contreras. Being in a good lineup is not something new to Schwarber like it was for Ortiz...

[Maxbialystock]

It really comes down to - should the Sox spend this off-season to fill a potential shortstop vacancy in 2023 or a potential DH vacancy in 2023?

 

The DH position is typically the easier one to fill, but there are arguments for both sides....

 

I don't care about SS that much. What I see are three good bats--JDM, Bogey, and Schwarber--the Sox should want to keep next year along with Kike, Devers, and Verdugo. So by all means keep them.

 

Come 2023, assuming Schwarber gets a long term but not too long term contract this winter with the Sox, it's really Bogaerts vs JDM, and I think that's an easy decision.

[Maxbialystock]

Well, Ortiz was abour 4 years younger at the time and had about 800 fewer career PA's. And Schwarber also came to Boston already in proud possession of a World Series ring as he was in a lineup with former MVP Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez and Willson Contreras. Being in a good lineup is not something new to Schwarber like it was for Ortiz...

 

Good analysis. Schwarber also hit well with the going nowhere Nats this year. In fact, 2021 is his best WAR year, 3.1. I just think he is a great fit for the Sox lineup.

[moonslav59]

Down the stretch he showed some value as a platoon bat. I have no doubt he could play the OF corners if he were asked. With Verdugo, Devers and Schwarber at those positions - there are platoon at-bats available across those areas.

 

Down the stretch, he hit both handed pitchers very well.

[mvp 78]

I'm happy with Schwarber's career 148 OPS+ at Fenway.

[d-money]

Aaron Boone coming back for the Yankees. Spoiled yankees fans on suicide watch.

[notin]

Good analysis. Schwarber also hit well with the going nowhere Nats this year. In fact, 2021 is his best WAR year, 3.1. I just think he is a great fit for the Sox lineup.

 

Schwarber's bat will play well on any team, which does make him tough.

 

At a minimum, I hope he is a fallback option for Boston if they are targetting a Semien/Baez type. I expect him to be the cheapr plan, and obvious reasons to bring him back are highlighted by his success and the team's succes with him here.

 

If the Sox do not go for Semien or Baez and instead simply sign or extend Schwarber, I would certainly not complain. Unless it is some insane 7 year deal (alought Schwarber is far more likely to maintain his value for 7 years than, say, Gausman or Stroman. And possibly even Semien or Baez)..

[moonslav59]

If you are realistic about the market for starters at his age with some actual upside, $18.6 is fair. It's not a screaming bargain - but it's fair.

 

For a one year deal, it seems like an obvious choice.

[notin]

For a one year deal, it seems like an obvious choice.

 

To me, a QO for ERod is an obvious move.

 

I have my issues with him, but if the worst case scenario is he gets overpriced for a single season, I think the benefits far outweigh the risks...

[moonslav59]

I don't care about SS that much. What I see are three good bats--JDM, Bogey, and Schwarber--the Sox should want to keep next year along with Kike, Devers, and Verdugo. So by all means keep them.

 

Come 2023, assuming Schwarber gets a long term but not too long term contract this winter with the Sox, it's really Bogaerts vs JDM, and I think that's an easy decision.

 

Devers outhit JD and Boegy and is still pre-prime, yet you don't list him as a "good bat." Hmmm....

 

Devers forevers.

 

Lock him up- long term.

[moonslav59]

To me, a QO for ERod is an obvious move.

 

I have my issues with him, but if the worst case scenario is he gets overpriced for a single season, I think the benefits far outweigh the risks...

 

GMs love one year deals. The risk is minimized.

 

Also, ERod has a lot of incentive to have a career year on a QO season.

[notin]

GMs love one year deals. The risk is minimized.

 

Also, ERod has a lot of incentive to have a career year on a QO season.

 

Technically, he had said same incentive this season, but I can cut him some slack given his horrific health in 2020...

[sk7326]

Technically, he had said same incentive this season, but I can cut him some slack given his horrific health in 2020...

 

He also pitched way better than his stats. We wanted him to strike out more people, walk fewer of them and allow less quality contact. Rodriguez did all three of those. But like Eovaldi, he was victimized by the statuesque defensive range of the club.

[moonslav59]

Technically, he had said same incentive this season, but I can cut him some slack given his horrific health in 2020...

 

True, and look what he did his last 17 starts:

 

8-4 3.60 (3.03 FIP) with a crappy D that led to a .348 BAbip

 

Playoffs: 4.97 ERA (0.95 WHIP) and 4th in IP at 12.2 in MLB playoffs 2021.

 

[moonslav59]

He also pitched way better than his stats. We wanted him to strike out more people, walk fewer of them and allow less quality contact. Rodriguez did all three of those. But like Eovaldi, he was victimized by the statuesque defensive range of the club.

 

Think about this for a long time:

 

.365 BAbip.

 

Had it been near .290 to .300, we'd be talking about extending him at $25M x 4+ years.

 

(OK, maybe I'm exaggerating.)

[Bellhorn04]

Think about this for a long time:

 

.365 BAbip.

 

Had it been near .290 to .300, we'd be talking about extending him at $25M x 4+ years.

 

(OK, maybe I'm exaggerating.)

 

And other organizations will also see he pitched better than his ERA this year, and they'll see what he looked like last 2 starts.

 

Which means he can turn down the QO.

[moonslav59]

And other organizations will also see he pitched better than his ERA this year, and they'll see what he looked like last 2 starts.

 

Which means he can turn down the QO.

 

If he turns it down, we can sign him as a FA or pocket the draft pick and sign someone else with that $18.6M plus maybe more $$$.

[mvp 78]

Aaron Boone coming back for the Yankees. Spoiled yankees fans on suicide watch.

 

Spoiled Yankees? There are miserable Yankees fans in college right now who only saw 1 championship back when they were in elementary school. It's a franchise on the ropes and taking body blows.

 

I agree with jacko, George wouldn't have let this drag on.

[mvp 78]

Devers outhit JD and Boegy and is still pre-prime, yet you don't list him as a "good bat." Hmmm....

 

Devers forevers.

 

Lock him up- long term.

 

8/180

[a700hitter]

To me, a QO for ERod is an obvious move.

 

I have my issues with him, but if the worst case scenario is he gets overpriced for a single season, I think the benefits far outweigh the risks...

I wouldn’t make the QO, but I would try to sign him for something reasonable for 3-4 years.

[moonslav59]

8/180

 

Sounds about right. At his age, I might go $210/9.

[sk7326]

Sounds about right. At his age, I might go $210/9.

 

Yeah - I could see that if Devers wants that sort of security (like Tatis signed for in SD). But I think more plausible is something like 5 or 6 years that gets him a shot at FA as a 29/30 year old.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'd like to see Bloom sign or extend a star for three years before I start hoping he'll make an offer three times longer than that. With Chaim, it's not the big market budget he's never had before that will be an issue -- but it may always be the years.

 

And I'm not faulting such strategy... especially since it appears sensible and prudent, and even trend-worthy.

[moonslav59]

Yeah - I could see that if Devers wants that sort of security (like Tatis signed for in SD). But I think more plausible is something like 5 or 6 years that gets him a shot at FA as a 29/30 year old.

 

Maybe a dreaded opt out after 5 or 6 years.

[moonslav59]

I'd like to see Bloom sign or extend a star for three years before I start hoping he'll make an offer three times longer than that. With Chaim, it's not the big market budget he's never had before that will be an issue -- but it may always be the years.

 

And I'm not faulting such strategy... especially since it appears sensible and prudent, and even trend-worthy.

 

The kid is 24. We should try to get him to age 31.

[sk7326]

Maybe a dreaded opt out after 5 or 6 years.

 

I think it used to be dreaded - but there is some value for both sides to have it. Like if Devers rakes but evolves into a pure 1B/DH guy - the Sox might not actually going to be all THAT interested in his 31-35 years.

[moonslav59]

I think it used to be dreaded - but there is some value for both sides to have it. Like if Devers rakes but evolves into a pure 1B/DH guy - the Sox might not actually going to be all THAT interested in his 31-35 years.

 

Signing Devers to a 9 year deal brings him to age 33.

 

If he opts out, it's because he's worth more than we owe him.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The kid is 24. We should try to get him to age 31.

 

I'm with you. As for Bloom, I'll believe it when I see it.

 

What's more likely for Bloom: a Bogaerts reworked extension for 4/5 or a Devers offer for 9/10 (and we know if Rafie keeps on raking through arb, that someone will offer him a longterm)?

[moonslav59]

I'm with you. As for Bloom, I'll believe it when I see it.

 

What's more likely for Bloom: a Bogaerts reworked extension for 4/5 or a Devers offer for 9/10 (and we know if Rafie keeps on raking through arb, that someone will offer him a longterm)?

 

I'd pay Devers a few extra years to get him for all his prime years.

 

Bogey is peak prime, now. If we rework his deal, it would be for mostly post-prime years.

 

To me, Devers is a higher priority.

 

My issue with Bogey is also about defense, and SS being a vital defensive position, AND this year being a year with so many very good FA SSs on the market. My guess is one or two can be had at a reasonable cost, after the big spenders gobble up the 2-3 they want.

 

Semien or Baez would be nice. They can play 2B until 2022, or we could trade Bogey to a team that lost their great SS to free agency- like HOU.

[sk7326]

Signing Devers to a 9 year deal brings him to age 33.

 

If he opts out, it's because he's worth more than we owe him.

 

Right - but he could also be going into a part of his aging curve where the future value is less than what Boston owes him, though another team (all it takes is one!) might disagree.