A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[notin]

Ha ha here we go again.

 

Dombrowski was by no means fully responsible for that quarter of a billion. And a lot of the dead money came from Ben.

 

And when Ben took over, there was a lot of money from Theo Epstein. But the difference is Ben was not allowed to spend, whereas Dombrowski was...

[notin]

1. Ben was too stingy with the trades.

 

 

 

 

 

THIS.

 

He defintely had a reluctance to deal any prospects...

[oldtimer]

Almost all the "dead money" was Ben's but the point I think he was making was that DD was allowed to spend more than Ben and Bloom.

 

He also traded more of the farm away than Ben & Bloom, so the thought is, a good team was expected as the window was narrowed.

 

While Ben was allowed to spend, at times (HRam, Pablo & Castillo), he was also limited several years. DD was limited in 2019, and the team declined.

 

$10M+ Free Agent Contracts:

 

DD

$217M Price

$110M JD

$68M Eovaldi

$13M C Young

$13M Moreland

 

Ben

$95M Pablo

$88M HRam

($73M Castillo)

$39M Vic

$32M Napoli

$26M Ortiz

$18M Koji

$13M Dempster (retired leaving another $13M on the table)

$10M S Drew

 

Bloom

$14M Kike

$10M Richards

 

Other notable signings:

Ben:

Porcello- $83M/4 (extension)

DD:

Kimbrel- $42M/4 (traded for CK)

C Sale $33M/5 (traded for CS)

Bloom:

$145M/5 C Sale (extension)

$120M/6 Bogey (extension- actually $60M/3 w optout)

 

Did I miss anyone major?

 

 

 

The Barnes extension.

[moonslav59]

The Barnes extension.

 

Good one. Maybe I'm trying to forget.

[moonslav59]

THIS.

 

He defintely had a reluctance to deal any prospects...

 

He traded Iggy & Montas for Jake Peavy.

He traded 3 prospects for Wade Miley. (Later, he traded Miley and prospect Aro for Carson Smith and Elias.)

He traded a young Reddick and prospects for Andrew Bailey

He traded Lowrie (not young) and Weiland for Melancon.

He traded prospects for Holt & Hanrahan.

The highly ranked Lars Anderson for Steven Wright.

Luis Ortega for Burke Badenhop.

Ranaudo for Robbie Ross

[notin]

Almost all the "dead money" was Ben's but the point I think he was making was that DD was allowed to spend more than Ben and Bloom.

 

He also traded more of the farm away than Ben & Bloom, so the thought is, a good team was expected as the window was narrowed.

 

While Ben was allowed to spend, at times (HRam, Pablo & Castillo), he was also limited several years. DD was limited in 2019, and the team declined.

 

$10M+ Free Agent Contracts:

 

DD

$217M Price

$110M JD

$68M Eovaldi

$13M C Young

$13M Moreland

 

Ben

$95M Pablo

$88M HRam

($73M Castillo)

$39M Vic

$32M Napoli

$26M Ortiz

$18M Koji

$13M Dempster (retired leaving another $13M on the table)

$10M S Drew

 

Bloom

$14M Kike

$10M Richards

 

Other notable signings:

Ben:

Porcello- $83M/4 (extension)

DD:

Kimbrel- $42M/4 (traded for CK)

C Sale $33M/5 (traded for CS)

Bloom:

$145M/5 C Sale (extension)

$120M/6 Bogey (extension- actually $60M/3 w optout)

 

Did I miss anyone major?

 

 

 

You misspelled Dombrowski. You spelled it “Bloom” for the Sale and Bogaerts extensions…

[moonslav59]

You misspelled Dombrowski. You spelled it “Bloom” for the Sale and Bogaerts extensions…

 

Ooops!

[Bellhorn04]

And when Ben took over, there was a lot of money from Theo Epstein. But the difference is Ben was not allowed to spend, whereas Dombrowski was...

 

Ben spent over $330 million in one off-season.

 

As I say, I'm not sure which of the two spent more on new contracts/extensions without checking. I think it's pretty close.

[moonslav59]

Ben spent over $330 million in one off-season.

 

As I say, I'm not sure which of the two spent more on new contracts/extensions without checking. I think it's pretty close.

 

It probably is pretty close, and if you count contracts traded for, maybe DD takes the lead.

[Larry Cook]

Desperate Dave takes the lead in executing scorched earth baseball management!

 

So glad he is in the rear view mirror!

[Bellhorn04]

Almost all the "dead money" was Ben's but the point I think he was making was that DD was allowed to spend more than Ben and Bloom.

 

He also traded more of the farm away than Ben & Bloom, so the thought is, a good team was expected as the window was narrowed.

 

While Ben was allowed to spend, at times (HRam, Pablo & Castillo), he was also limited several years. DD was limited in 2019, and the team declined.

 

$10M+ Free Agent Contracts:

 

DD

$217M Price

$110M JD

$68M Eovaldi

$13M C Young

$13M Moreland

 

Ben

$95M Pablo

$88M HRam

($73M Castillo)

$39M Vic

$32M Napoli

$26M Ortiz

$18M Koji

$13M Dempster (retired leaving another $13M on the table)

$10M S Drew

 

Bloom

$14M Kike

$10M Richards

 

Other notable signings:

Ben:

Porcello- $83M/4 (extension)

DD:

Kimbrel- $42M/4 (traded for CK)

C Sale $33M/5 (traded for CS)

$145M/5 C Sale (extension)

$120M/6 Bogey (extension- actually $60M/3 w optout)

Bloom:

$19M: Barnes (extension)

 

Did I miss anyone major?

 

Yes, two other major expenditures by Ben:

 

Pedroia extension - $90 million added to existing deal

Moncada signing - $63 million

[Bellhorn04]

Desperate Dave takes the lead in executing scorched earth baseball management!

 

So glad he is in the rear view mirror!

 

Scorched earth somehow nearly made it to the World Series the second season after DD left.

 

Logical Larry.

[moonslav59]

Scorched earth somehow nearly made it to the World Series the second season after DD left.

 

Logical Larry.

 

Blooming Bloom.

[moonslav59]

Yes, two other major expenditures by Ben:

 

Pedroia extension - $90 million added to existing deal

Moncada signing - $63 million

 

Yes, I left those off.

 

Looks like the tally is pretty close.

 

The main differences were:

 

1.Top Free Agent signings (amount and ROI)

 

2. Quantity of prospects traded

[Bellhorn04]

Yes, I left those off.

 

Looks like the tally is pretty close.

 

The main differences were:

 

1.Top Free Agent signings (amount and ROI)

 

2. Quantity of prospects traded

 

I agree.

 

But when it comes to the payroll, it's simply false that "Ben couldn't spend" while "DD had a blank cheque".

[moonslav59]

Updated GM Scoreboard:

 

$10M+ Free Agent Contracts:

 

Ben:

$95M Pablo

$88M HRam

($73M Castillo)

($63M Moncada)

$39M Vic

$32M Napoli

$26M Ortiz

$18M Koji

$13M Dempster (retired leaving another $13M on the table)

$10M S Drew

 

DD:

$217M Price

$110M JD

$68M Eovaldi

$13M C Young

$13M Moreland

 

Bloom:

$14M Kike

$10M Richards

 

Other notable signings/additions:

Ben:

Pedroia- $90M (extension)

Porcello- $83M/4 (extension)

DD:

Kimbrel- $42M/4 (traded for CK)

C Sale $33M/5 (traded for CS)

$145M/5 C Sale (extension)

$120M/6 Bogey (extension- actually $60M/3 w optout)

Bloom:

$19M: Barnes (extension)

 

Am I still missing anyone major?

 

Ben: About 4 years as GM- 1 ring (1- 1st place/ 3 last place)

DD: About 4 years as GM- 1 ring (3- 1st place)

Bloom: About 2 years as GM, including the 60 game season (0 rings and 1st place finishes)

[notin]

I agree.

 

But when it comes to the payroll, it's simply false that "Ben couldn't spend" while "DD had a blank cheque".

 

 

Ben had spending restrictions two of his 4 years. He had to deal Marco Scutaro just to fit the contract of career third tier Cody Ross. He also dealt with a moratorium on long contracts for free agent pitchers over 30, something Dombrowski clearly didn’t when SS signing Price.

 

What always seems to be ignored is where these GMs started and the rules they had to play by. Cherington took over a talented team that simply had no desire to play baseball. Bloom took over a team with a payroll approaching a quarter of a billion dollars that was closer to .500 than the postseason. Both dealt with payroll resets.

 

But with Dombrowski, the whole “but he won 3 pennants and 108 games and a ring” does neglect that he took over a team with a solid core, an elite farm and he seemingly had no payroll limitations, unless you count the 2018 off-season when he was limited to spending some $320 mill on Sale, Bogaerts and Eovaldi.

 

What also gets list is Dombrowski’s last team that cost $240+ mill was actually barely better than Cherington’s last team…

[notin]

But to be fair, one rarely mentioned good point about Dombrowski is he clearly did some of the best drafting of his career in Boston. Houck and Dalbec are already paying off, and Groome’s slow development was not the fault of the GM…

[Bellhorn04]

What also gets list is Dombrowski’s last team that cost $240+ mill was actually barely better than Cherington’s last team…

 

To be completely fair about this, you have to take into consideration how much of that 2019 payroll DD had nothing to do with taking on.

 

Porcello 20.6

Betts 20

Pablo 19

Pedroia 14

Xander 12

JBJ 8.5

 

That's 94 mill. And doesn't include the 12 for Castillo which wasn't included in tax calcs, but did come out of JH's pocket.

 

The amounts for Betts and Bogaerts reflect their huge arb raises. Which they deserved, obviously, but it's one of the vagaries of the system that guys get huge raises without the GM having a thing to say about it.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Is it fair to say almost all GMs inherit rosters that include both promising prospects and payroll burdens from past regimes? Bloom's goal of building sustained contenders has to be the ideal for GMs and CBOs, but how many years does that entail -- and do they all have to be consecutive?

 

Dombrowski-led teams did finish in first place three years in a row, which had never been done before in Boston, so that could be considered sustained success right there. The clubs that won world titles a hundred years earlier when Babe Ruth was pitching certainly sustained success. So did the Epstein-led Sox that won two rings and made it to four ALCS Game Sevens in seven seasons.

 

Yes, Dombro inherited an organization rich with young talent, and had access to a big budget. But he also closed deals that assured success, by assembling championship pitching -- adding Sale, Price, Eovaldi and Kimbrel, among others. It's arguable that those moves were his most important in sustaining contention... and that a front office that acquires similar stability to the staff will key the next Bosox title run.

[notin]

To be completely fair about this, you have to take into consideration how much of that 2019 payroll DD had nothing to do with taking on.

 

Porcello 20.6

Betts 20

Pablo 19

Pedroia 14

Xander 12

JBJ 8.5

 

That's 94 mill. And doesn't include the 12 for Castillo which wasn't included in tax calcs, but did come out of JH's pocket.

 

The amounts for Betts and Bogaerts reflect their huge arb raises. Which they deserved, obviously, but it's one of the vagaries of the system that guys get huge raises without the GM having a thing to say about it.

 

 

And when people take into consideration the last place finish for Bloom, and Cherington’s last place finish in 2012,do we also consider exactly what each was taking over? The 2011 Red Sox were a talented team that just completed quit playing baseball and necessitated a house cleaning (and were managed by Bobby Valentine), and the 2020 Red Sox were a payroll nightmare in the midst of cost reduction. I never hear those points in the criticisms. Or is Dombrowski the only GM entitled to having his mistakes defended?

[Bellhorn04]

And when people take into consideration the last place finish for Bloom, and Cherington’s last place finish in 2012,do we also consider exactly what each was taking over? The 2011 Red Sox were a talented team that just completed quit playing baseball and necessitated a house cleaning (and were managed by Bobby Valentine), and the 2020 Red Sox were a payroll nightmare in the midst of cost reduction. I never hear those points in the criticisms. Or is Dombrowski the only GM entitled to having his mistakes defended?

 

I don't think we're a hive mind here. Some people do unfairly leave those things out, I agree.

 

Personally, I think of 2013 as Ben's real first season.

 

As for Bloom, I'm definitely a fan of what he's done.

[dgalehouse]

It is natural to like some people more than others. So , we tend to downplay the success of those we don't care for , and make excuses for the failures of those we like. It's only human nature to do so. But the bottom line is still the bottom line. It doesn't change.

[moonslav59]

Ben had spending restrictions two of his 4 years. He had to deal Marco Scutaro just to fit the contract of career third tier Cody Ross. He also dealt with a moratorium on long contracts for free agent pitchers over 30, something Dombrowski clearly didn’t when SS signing Price.

 

What always seems to be ignored is where these GMs started and the rules they had to play by. Cherington took over a talented team that simply had no desire to play baseball. Bloom took over a team with a payroll approaching a quarter of a billion dollars that was closer to .500 than the postseason. Both dealt with payroll resets.

 

But with Dombrowski, the whole “but he won 3 pennants and 108 games and a ring” does neglect that he took over a team with a solid core, an elite farm and he seemingly had no payroll limitations, unless you count the 2018 off-season when he was limited to spending some $320 mill on Sale, Bogaerts and Eovaldi.

 

What also gets list is Dombrowski’s last team that cost $240+ mill was actually barely better than Cherington’s last team…

 

While all of this is true, Ben did spend a lot of money and ended up spending about as much as DD upon inheriting a pretty good team and so-so farm.

 

He ended up trading many stars, and it worked.

[moonslav59]

But to be fair, one rarely mentioned good point about Dombrowski is he clearly did some of the best drafting of his career in Boston. Houck and Dalbec are already paying off, and Groome’s slow development was not the fault of the GM…

 

One of my claims that proved to not come true was that drafting low and having penalties due to cheating, winning and over-spending, it would be hard for DD to draft well and acquire good IFAs.

 

DD did very well on the former, considering having bad picks.

[moonslav59]

To be completely fair about this, you have to take into consideration how much of that 2019 payroll DD had nothing to do with taking on.

 

Porcello 20.6

Betts 20

Pablo 19

Pedroia 14

Xander 12

JBJ 8.5

 

That's 94 mill. And doesn't include the 12 for Castillo which wasn't included in tax calcs, but did come out of JH's pocket.

 

The amounts for Betts and Bogaerts reflect their huge arb raises. Which they deserved, obviously, but it's one of the vagaries of the system that guys get huge raises without the GM having a thing to say about it.

 

While true, how much of this was "dead money" and how much of this was passed on to 2020?

[Bellhorn04]

While true, how much of this was "dead money" and how much of this was passed on to 2020?

 

Dead money inherited by DD-not including Castillo who was not subject to luxury tax:

 

Pablo

Hanley

Pedroia

 

Dead money inherited by Bloom:

 

Price (half-dead, at least)

Pedroia

[moonslav59]

Dead money inherited by DD-not including Castillo who was not subject to luxury tax:

 

Pablo

Hanley

Pedroia

 

Dead money inherited by Bloom:

 

Price (half-dead, at least)

Pedroia

 

First of all, the "dead money" HRam gave DD a 2.6 bWAR in 2016 and 2.4 overall under DD. (3.0 fWAR in 2016 and 2.3 overall). He was a negative under Ben and a plus under DD.

 

Second, the Pedey money should be considered dead money, but it's hard to blame any GM for what Machado did. The criticism is fair, though.

 

Funny how Pabloe has been a plus bWAR since leaving Boston.

[notin]

It is natural to like some people more than others. So , we tend to downplay the success of those we don't care for , and make excuses for the failures of those we like. It's only human nature to do so. But the bottom line is still the bottom line. It doesn't change.

 

Isn't that exactly what you're doing?

[notin]

One of my claims that proved to not come true was that drafting low and having penalties due to cheating, winning and over-spending, it would be hard for DD to draft well and acquire good IFAs.

 

DD did very well on the former, considering having bad picks.

 

WEll, his pick of Groome was not towards the back of the draft. But with Groome, the only reason he was available was the signability issues, and DD did manage to get him signed...