A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Old Red]

Imerely suggested it as an alternative.

 

BTW, Renfroe is no plus in the more important corner OF position, so I'd say these two defensive OF's are pretty close to even:

 

LF Schwarber/Duran

CF Kike

RF Verdugo

 

LF Verdugo/Duran

CF Kike

RF Renfroe/Verdugo

Are you saying Schwaber is as good an OF as Renfroe? You also said that Kike was the best CF the Sox ever had even though they have had some pretty good ones going back to Tris Speaker, Dom D, Reggie Smith, Fred Lynne, Piersall,and JBJ just to mention a few. Like I said before Schwaber is not coming back, and the Red Sox will survive without him.

[moonslav59]

You are wrong, and someone did say to sign him to a lifetime contract weeks ago when the post season for the Sox were still going on, and that is the reason I have brought it up more than once. It is not something I have made up even though I’m not a big Schwaber fan.

 

Ok. I believe you, but I just don't remember the words "lifetime."

 

BTW, I'm not for signing Schwarber, either, unless we trade JD- so, no chance.

 

We need to spend nearly every penny and trade resources we are willing to part with on pitching.

 

(I like Schwarber, though.)

[moonslav59]

Are you saying Schwaber is as good an OF as Renfroe? You also said that Kike was the best CF the Sox ever had even though they have had some pretty good ones going back to Tris Speaker, Dom D, Reggie Smith, Fred Lynne, Piersall,and JBJ just to mention a few. Like I said before Schwaber is not coming back, and the Red Sox will survive without him.

 

No. You missed a major part of my position.

 

LF is way less important than RF, especially in the 81 games at Fenway.

 

Poor fielding is much more easily hidden in Fenway's LF than RF.

 

I think these two OFs are similar in defense:

 

LF Scwarber/Duran

CF Kike

RF Verdugo

 

LF Verdugo/Duran

CF Kike

RF Renfroe/Verdugo

 

This is not the same as saying Schwarber is equal to Renfroe on defense.

 

Verdugo> Renfroe in RF (the important corer position) balances or almost balances the equation.

 

BTW, saying Kike was the best CF'er I've seen on the Sox was not meant to slight Lynn and others. He has a great defensive year, and so did other Sox CF'ers from the past. It is not a no brainer position I hold. It was a close call, but it's my opinion.

Edited November 8, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

33 Players on Our 40 Man Roster

(ERod not listed. He has 10days to accept or decline the QO.)

 

Listed in order of 40 man roster seniority...

Vaz

Bogey

Barnes

Sale

Devers

JD

Brasier

Eovaldi

Taylor

DHern

Dalbec

Arauz

Plawecki

Verdugo

Valdez

Pivetta

Arroyo

Houck

Bazardo

Mata

Groome

Wong

Seabold

Rosario

Potts

Whitlock

Renfroe

Kike

Sawamura

R Hernandez

Duran

Davis

Locastro

 

Red= borderline DFA/Trade candidates

 

Rule 5 Candidates

 

Certain:

Downs

Bello

Winckowski

 

Probable:

Santos

Crawford

Feltman

 

Possible:

Cottam

Jimenez

Ward

Edited November 8, 2021 by moonslav59

[Old Red]

Ok. I believe you, but I just don't remember the words "lifetime."

 

BTW, I'm not for signing Schwarber, either, unless we trade JD- so, no chance.

 

We need to spend nearly every penny and trade resources we are willing to part with on pitching.

 

(I like Schwarber, though.)

 

How many times are you going to say if we trade JD? He is not going anywhere unless the Sox trade him next July if things aren’t going well. Otherwise than that he’ll finish his contract with the Sox.

[Old Red]

No. You missed a major part of my position.

 

LF is way less important than RF, especially in the 81 games at Fenway.

 

Poor fielding is much more easily hidden in Fenway's LF than RF.

 

I think these two OFs are similar in defense:

 

LF Scwarber/Duran

CF Kike

RF Verdugo

 

LF Verdugo/Duran

CF Kike

RF Renfroe/Verdugo

 

This is not the same as saying Schwarber is equal to Renfroe on defense.

 

Verdugo> Renfroe in RF (the important corer position) balances or almost balances the equation.

 

BTW, saying Kike was the best CF'er I've seen on the Sox was not meant to slight Lynn and others. He has a great defensive year, and so did other Sox CF'ers from the past. It is not a no brainer position I hold. It was a close call, but it's my opinion.

 

I am very well aware that LF is way less important than RF in Fenway. I would rather have Renfroe in RF than Schwaber in LF to start the season next year. He’s cheaper, and he did drive in more runs last year although I think some people think it’s the other way around. I also wouldn’t be opposed to neither one being on the team next year, because there has to be better options, and Renfroe could really suck, and not have 96 RBI. The jury is still out on Duran, which has made things a little harder to Jude if you will get anything out of him, or not.

[moonslav59]

How many times are you going to say if we trade JD? He is not going anywhere unless the Sox trade him next July if things aren’t going well. Otherwise than that he’ll finish his contract with the Sox.

 

I'm saying we won't trade JD.

 

I'm saying the only way I want Schwarber is if JD is not here.

 

Why is that a problem saying that? It's pretty much saying we don't need 2 DHs.

 

Sorry you have so many issues with my wording and use of superlatives.

[moonslav59]

I am very well aware that LF is way less important than RF in Fenway. I would rather have Renfroe in RF than Schwaber in LF to start the season next year. He’s cheaper, and he did drive in more runs last year although I think some people think it’s the other way around. I also wouldn’t be opposed to neither one being on the team next year, because there has to be better options, and Renfroe could really suck, and not have 96 RBI. The jury is still out on Duran, which has made things a little harder to Jude if you will get anything out of him, or not.

 

I was only talking about defense.

 

Again, I'm not for signing Schwarber. I just mentioned another possible option for finding room for him without saying trade JD for the 50th time- something you dislike me saying.

 

I know you dislike Schwarber.

 

I like him. I don't see a fit, unless we move other pieces. That's not teh same as saying I want to move other pieces to bring him back.

 

I don't want Schwarber. I want pitching.

 

Let me say it again; I don't want Schwarber. We don't have the resources to afford him, and it's too complicated to try and make room for him.

[Old Red]

I'm saying we won't trade JD.

 

I'm saying the only way I want Schwarber is if JD is not here.

 

Why is that a problem saying that? It's pretty much saying we don't need 2 DHs.

 

Sorry you have so many issues with my wording and use of superlatives.

 

My point is JD is not going anywhere, but if he did is Schwaber the best option out there? That’s all I hear is Schwaber, Schwaber, Schwaber.

[moonslav59]

My point is JD is not going anywhere, but if he did is Schwaber the best option out there? That’s all I here is Schwaber, Schwaber, Schwaber.

 

Again, I've said over and over JD is not going anywhere. We agree on that, but somehow you twist it into me disagreeing.

 

You don't like Schwarber- fine.

 

I like him a lot.

 

No, he's not the only option out there, and I never even came close to hinting at that position.

 

BTW, the only reason I'm still talking about Schwarber is responding to your posts about No Schwarber, No Schwarber, No Schwarber.

 

[Bellhorn04]

My point is JD is not going anywhere, but if he did is Schwaber the best option out there? That’s all I hear is Schwaber, Schwaber, Schwaber.

 

What other better bats than Schwarber are available?

[Old Red]

Again, I've said over and over JD is not going anywhere. We agree on that, but somehow you twist it into me disagreeing.

 

You don't like Schwarber- fine.

 

I like him a lot.

 

No, he's not the only option out there, and I never even came close to hinting at that position.

 

BTW, the only reason I'm still talking about Schwarber is responding to your posts about No Schwarber, No Schwarber, No Schwarber.

 

 

You’ve said I dislike, and I don’t like Schwaber, and I get that, but just, because I think his value is overrated, and I would rather have JD, or Renfroe in RF instead of Schwaber in LF, and it would not be a good spending of resources when there is more important areas to spend money on does not mean I don’t like him. If he was still under contract fine, but I’m not giving him a multi year contract. I was waiting for you to give better options than Schwaber if JD had opted out.

[moonslav59]

What other better bats than Schwarber are available?

 

If you just count 2021 or that short stretch of off-the-charts hitting- nobody on the FA market, except maybe Semien.

 

If you go back a few years and count last 2, 3 or 4 years, there are others- Castellanos might be one.

[Bellhorn04]

If you just count 2021 or that short stretch of off-the-charts hitting- nobody on the FA market, except maybe Semien.

 

If you go back a few years and count last 2, 3 or 4 years, there are others- Castellanos might be one.

 

And Schwarber does have a higher career OPS+ than either of those two.

[moonslav59]

You’ve said I dislike, and I don’t like Schwaber, and I get that, but just, because I think his value is overrated, and I would rather have JD, or Renfroe in RF instead of Schwaber in LF, and it would not be a good spending of resources when there is more important areas to spend money on does not mean I don’t like him. If he was still under contract fine, but I’m not giving him a multi year contract. I was waiting for you to give better options than Schwaber if JD had opted out.

 

Again, I was only saying the defense would be close to even with Schwarber in LF and Verdugo in RF. That's all. I never said I'd rather have Schwarber and $8M more in salary than Renfroe.

 

I want every cent spent on pitching. I'm not sure how many more times I need to say that.

 

If the money was even, I'd prefer Schwarber over Renfroe, but it's not a slam dunk choice.

 

The money is not even, so I don't want Schwarber.

 

I'm fine with you thinking he's over-rated. I don't think he is. I think he has just come into his own. (I could be wrong.)

 

I sometimes respond to other people's posts and suggest alternative options that I might not even support.

 

One more time: I do NOT want us to sign Schwarber, despite me liking him a lot.

 

Edited November 8, 2021 by moonslav59

[Old Red]

If you just count 2021 or that short stretch of off-the-charts hitting- nobody on the FA market, except maybe Semien.

 

If you go back a few years and count last 2, 3 or 4 years, there are others- Castellanos might be one.

 

Semien would be way to expensive. Castellanos not so much.

[Old Red]

Again, I was only saying the defense would be close to even with Schwarber in LF and Verdugo in RF. That's all. I never said I'd rather have Schwarber and $8M more in salary than Renfroe.

 

I want every cent spent on pitching. I'm not sure how many more times I need to say that.

 

If the money was even, I'd prefer Schwarber over Renfroe, but it's not a slam dunk choice.

 

The money is not even, so I don't want Schwarber.

 

I'm fine with you thinking he's over-rated. I don't think he is. I think he has just come into his own. (I could be wrong.)

 

I sometimes respond to other people's posts and suggest alternative options that I might not even support.

 

One more time: I do NOT want us to sign Schwarber, despite me liking him a lot.

 

 

My biggest problem with Schwaber is that he is not a RBI man. 90 RBI once, and 71 RBI his most after that. His high BA of 266 I could live with, but to get a multi year contract for me he’s got to drive in more runs like JD has done.

[moonslav59]

And Schwarber does have a higher career OPS+ than either of those two.

 

I rarely care all that much about career OPS. To me, the last 2-3 years is most important.

 

I adjust for younger and older players when trying to project what is to come. (Like Nelson Cruz should not be better than any of these others listed, going forward.)

 

Also, more PAs is important.

 

Last 4 years:

.910 N Cruz

.872 Castelleno

.851 Schwarber

.811 Semien

 

Last 3 years:

.936 N Cruz

.880 Castellenos

.862 Schwarber

.854 Semien

 

Last 2 years:

.893 Castellenos

.874 N Cruz

.854 Schwarber

.825 Semien

 

2021:

.939 Castellenos

.928 Schwarber

.873 Semien (724 PAs- most in league)

.832 N Cruz

[moonslav59]

My biggest problem with Schwaber is that he is not a RBI man. 90 RBI once, and 71 RBI his most after that. His high BA of 266 I could live with, but to get a multi year contract for me he’s got to drive in more runs like JD has done.

 

His low RBI totals are not so much about him doing poorly with men on base. It's more about rarely getting over 600 PAs and not having men in front of him get on base or score when he gets a hit.

 

He's only had 1 season over 510 PAs, so how many 100 RBI years should he have had?

 

True, 90 RBI per 660 PAs is not great. I share your concern, but he does have these numbers:

 

.836 career OPS

 

.826 career RISP

.850 career Men on Base

 

One is slightly lower than his norm: one is slightly higher than his norm. This makes me wonder about his having less RBI opportunities than others.

 

Does he hit more solo HRs than he should?

 

91 HRs in 1533 empty bases PAs.

62 Hrs in 1046 men on base PAs.

 

Seems about the same, to me.

 

JD has way better numbers with men on base:

.881 career OPS

.949 RISP

.920 Menon Base

 

134 HRs in 2780 PAs with empty bases

132 HRs in 2515 PAs with men on base PAs

 

It looks like JD's ratio of PAs with men on base is higher than Schwarbers and he hits a higher solo HRs than ones with men on base ratio.

[moonslav59]

Semien would be way to expensive. Castellanos not so much.

 

Yes, Semien might cost twice as much as Schwarber plus get more years.

 

Castellenos is a closer comp.

[moonslav59]

I could see us signing one of ERod, Stroman, R Ray, Glausman or Rodon.

 

Maybe we can work out a trade for Montas (2 yrs left) and get them to add Trivino, but I'm not sure we have the pieces and Bloom is willing to part with a few prospects (like maybe Duran, Downs and Groome).

 

Sign a cheap infield utility guy like Iggy.

 

Add a decent pen arm or two- nothing too costly is more likely.

 

Eovaldi, Montas, Sale, ERod, Pivetta, Seabold

Houck, Whitlock, FA, FA, Barnes, Brasier, Taylor

Vaz & Wong

Dalbec

Arroyo & Iggy

Bogey

Devers

Verdugo & Duran

Kike

Renfroe & Locastro

JD

 

Rest of 40 man:

Groome, Winckowski, Crawford, Mata, Bello, Santos

DHern, Valdez, Davis, Sawamura, Bazardo, Feltman

RHern

Downs

 

Not on 40 man but may help in 2022:

Casas, Munoz, Cordero

 

Edited November 8, 2021 by moonslav59

[Old Red]

I could see us signing one of ERod, Stroman, R Ray, Glausman or Rodon.

 

Maybe we can work out a trade for Montas (2 yrs left) and get them to add Trivino, but I'm not sure we have the pieces and Bloom is willing to part with a few prospects (like maybe Duran, Downs and Groome).

 

Sign a cheap infield utility guy like Iggy.

 

Add a decent pen arm or two- nothing too costly is more likely.

 

 

I think E Rod comes back one way, or the other, but I’m not so sureDuran, Downs, and Groome would get you to much at this point.

[moonslav59]

I think E Rod comes back one way, or the other, but I’m not so sureDuran, Downs, and Groome would get you to much at this point.

 

I don't think a few dozen bad PAs out of the gate hurt Duran's stock as much as some think.

Downs is raking, now.

Groome's stock rose.

 

I'm not sure that's enough, either, but BTV shows it's close. (Maybe we get one year of Manaea not 2 of Montas.)

[Deja Doh]

If I'm the GM, I'd make a run at Freddie Freeman. I believe he easily has 3 to 5 years left in him. The last time we got him out was 2015 and he got hurt during that game. Dude can hit and get on base.

[notin]

I think E Rod comes back one way, or the other, but I’m not so sureDuran, Downs, and Groome would get you to much at this point.

 

Per BTV, a package of Montas and Trivino would cost the Sox Duran plus Whitlock, or Verdugo plus Connor Wong.

 

I do think the Sox can get a decent pitcher for Duran. Honestly, it will probably be a reliever since the Sox are very likely to move Houck:Whitlock to the pen…

[Bellhorn04]

I do think the Sox can get a decent pitcher for Duran. Honestly, it will probably be a reliever since the Sox are very likely to move Houck:Whitlock to the pen…

 

Bloom has said he envisions Whitlock as a starter, so it's going to be very interesting to see how they handle him next year.

[Bellhorn04]

As for Houck, he looks like one of those new hybrid vehicles...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

As for Houck, he looks like one of those new hybrid vehicles...

 

Hated by fossil fools, but sung by newbreed Sox fans who know all the words to "Mr. Brightsides":

 

Destiny

Is calling me...

[notin]

My biggest problem with Schwaber is that he is not a RBI man. 90 RBI once, and 71 RBI his most after that. His high BA of 266 I could live with, but to get a multi year contract for me he’s got to drive in more runs like JD has done.

 

Schwarber has spent about 40% of his career PAs batting 1st or 2nd. Of his career 2579 PA's, only 1046 have been with men on base, 435 of which have been with just a man on 1B. That leaves only 611 with RISP. He has 35 carreer RBI and 153 career home runs. meaning he has driven in other runners 197 times. (Most sluggers drive in themselves more than anyone else.)

 

Schwarber has come up with 1,476 runners on base in his career and driven in 197 of them. Or roughly 13.3%. Most "RBI men" drive in about 14-18% of the runners on base. So he is just shy of this level of production, and a big part is he does tend to take A LOT of walks that rarely drive in runners.

 

JD Martinez has been better in this regard, driving in 17.9% of all runners on base (571 out of 3,176)...

[moonslav59]

Per BTV, a package of Montas and Trivino would cost the Sox Duran plus Whitlock, or Verdugo plus Connor Wong.

 

I do think the Sox can get a decent pitcher for Duran. Honestly, it will probably be a reliever since the Sox are very likely to move Houck:Whitlock to the pen…

 

I don't think OAK would accept this deal, but BTV did:

 

Duran, Downs, Groome & Seabold

for

Montas & Trivino

 

I don't think my suggestion is wildly off base. Montas has only 2 years of control and Trivino 3.

 

The 4 players they get have 5-6 years of control, each.