A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[notin]

I really don’t think the Sox are going to get rid of Renfroe just because he has a bad week against the Astros. Especially since hitting better in the postseason isn’t necessarily an actual skill you can count on. Even David Ortiz had bad postseason series sometimes…

[mvp 78]

I really don’t think the Sox are going to get rid of Renfroe just because he has a bad week against the Astros. Especially since hitting better in the postseason isn’t necessarily an actual skill you can count on. Even David Ortiz had bad postseason series sometimes…

 

They wouldn't get much back for Renfoe. When he's hot, he can carry a lineup.

[moonslav59]

I really don’t think the Sox are going to get rid of Renfroe just because he has a bad week against the Astros. Especially since hitting better in the postseason isn’t necessarily an actual skill you can count on. Even David Ortiz had bad postseason series sometimes…

 

I don't think we trade him, either, but if we do, it might be about his RF defense not his bad week in the post season.

 

His GG nomination was a joke.

 

I get that he has a strong arm for RF, but I had expected Verdugo to be in RF, last winter.

 

Also, his trade value is not all that high, when you figure he will make $6-8M in arb.

Edited November 8, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

I don't think we trade him, either, but if we do, it might be about his RF defense not his bad week in the post season.

 

His GG nomination was a joke.

 

I get that he has a strong arm for RF, but I had expected Verdugo to be in RF, last winter.

 

Also, his trade value is not all that high, when you figure he will make $6-8M in arb.

 

 

Exactly.

 

I don’t think he belongs much back, and even at $7mill, his home runs and outfield assists are worth it

[moonslav59]

Exactly.

 

I don’t think he belongs much back, and even at $7mill, his home runs and outfield assists are worth it

 

Yup...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

His GG nomination was a joke.

 

 

I know voting for regular season awards takes place before the postseason, but it's ironic that Renfroe's most impactful play was a misplay that quite possibly saved the Red Sox' October.

[notin]

I know voting for regular season awards takes place before the postseason, but it's ironic that Renfroe's most impactful play was a misplay that quite possibly saved the Red Sox' October.

 

Your name now makes you look like a Cardinals’ fan…

[notin]

I know voting for regular season awards takes place before the postseason, but it's ironic that Renfroe's most impactful play was a misplay that quite possibly saved the Red Sox' October.

 

You ever try catching anything with one of those cold, solid, heavy and completely inflexible Gold Gloves on your hand?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Your name now makes you look like a Cardinals’ fan…

 

I am, but only because they're so good at defense... though my original name is all about outfield, and the five '75 Red Sox who won Gold Gloves as outfielders sometime in their careers (all in the 70s).

 

Now that Benintendi won Gold, there are five GG winners that played on the '18 world champs: Beni, JBJ, Mookie, Kinsler and Moreland (it's actually six, if we count Pedroia's failed three-game comeback). But I can't change the year on my name, because the '75 AL champs total nine Gold Glovers: Yaz, Lynn, Evans, Miller, Beniquez, Fisk, Burleson, Cooper and Doug Griffin.

 

Of course, by any metrics, the best fielding team in 1975 -- and the Seventies -- and probably ever -- wasn't even Boston, but the Baltimore Orioles.

[moonslav59]

the GG Award is a farce just like all awards.

[moonslav59]

What farce awards are announced, today?

[oldtimer]

All the talk of FA signings and trades may not bear fruit if the CBA can't be agreed upon. The old agreement expires on Dec 1st and it seems unlikely that a new agreement can be reached by then. Talking heads are predicting an owner lockout before Spring Training. I hope it doesn't happen, but I can't see teams stocking up on expensive FAs if they expect a lockout.

[notin]

All the talk of FA signings and trades may not bear fruit if the CBA can't be agreed upon. The old agreement expires on Dec 1st and it seems unlikely that a new agreement can be reached by then. Talking heads are predicting an owner lockout before Spring Training. I hope it doesn't happen, but I can't see teams stocking up on expensive FAs if they expect a lockout.

 

The last 2 offseasons have been insanely slow throughout November and December. CBA or not, that is possibly the new norm.

 

So I don't expect much in the way of free agent signings for several weeks anyway, especially since the top names this offseason all play the same position, so each will be waiting on the others to set the bar. Between now and 2022, most likely we see nothing more than a bunch of fringey short-term signings of borderline players who carry little risk and very likely no reward, much like the Dodgers' signing of Andrew Heaney...

[moonslav59]

I hope it's not as slow as last year, but I think it will be.

 

I doubt they nail down a new CBA quickly.

[jacksonianmarch]

The new CBA will be hammered out by March 1. Pitchers and catchers will be a bit delayed, but should start the season on time. I do think FA is going to be tremendously delayed with most deals not getting done until ST aside from the very top of the FA pool for the richest of teams.

[Larry Cook]

The new CBA will be hammered out by March 1. Pitchers and catchers will be a bit delayed, but should start the season on time. I do think FA is going to be tremendously delayed with most deals not getting done until ST aside from the very top of the FA pool for the richest of teams.

 

What is so magical about March 1st?

[notin]

What is so magical about March 1st?

 

It’s just the date he got in his CBA office pool…

[moonslav59]

It's probably pretty close to the last date whereby a full MLB schedule could be played after a rushed ST'ing.

[moonslav59]

ERod Offered a Multi-Year Deal by Sox

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/red-sox-rumors-eduardo-rodriguez-multi-year-offer.html

[moonslav59]

fWAR per game (110+ games)

.047 Harper

.047 Trea Turner

.046 Tatis

.045 S Marte

.044 Soto

.043 Posey (just retired)

.042 Guerrero

.041 Semien

.041 J Ramirez

.040 B Crawford

.039 Correa

.039 T O'Neill (.039 C Seager in 95 games)

.037 Judge

.036 Bogey

.036 Altuve

.035 B Reynolds

.035 B Lowe

.035 TAnderson

.034 Muncy

.034 K Tucker

.033 Mullins

.032 Ohtani (not pitching)

.032 Olsen

.032 Realmuto

.032 Betts

.031 Goldschmidt

.031 Bichette

.030 Devers

 

Other Sox:

.028 Kike

.027 Schwarber

.020 JD

.014 Verdugo

.013 Renfroe

.005 Dalbec

.004 Vaz

 

fWAR per GS

.268 Burnes

.228 Wheeler

.180 Scherzer

.177 Col

(.130 Othani in 23 GS'd)

 

Sox

.133 ERod

.073 Pivetta

.175 Eovaldi

Edited November 10, 2021 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

fWAR per game (110+ games)

.047 Harper

.047 Trea Turner

.046 Tatis

.045 S Marte

.044 Soto

.043 Posey (just retired)

.042 Guerrero

.041 Semien

.041 J Ramirez

.040 B Crawford

.039 Correa

.039 T O'Neill (.039 C Seager in 95 games)

.037 Judge

.036 Bogey

.036 Altuve

.035 B Reynolds

.035 B Lowe

.035 TAnderson

.034 Muncy

.034 K Tucker

.033 Mullins

.032 Ohtani (not pitching)

.032 Olsen

.032 Realmuto

.032 Betts

.031 Goldschmidt

.031 Bichette

.030 Devers

 

Other Sox:

.028 Kike

.027 Schwarber

.020 JD

.014 Verdug.013 Renfroe

.005 Dalbec

.004 Vaz

 

fWAR per GS

.268 Burnes

.228 Wheeler

.180 Scherzer

.177 Col

(.130 Othani in 23 GS'd)

 

Sox

.133 ERod

.073 Pivetta

.175 Eovaldi

 

Great line-up; is this from 2021 or career?

 

If just '21, Wander Franco beats them all in his 70 games -- if you use his 3.5 bWAR. But his fWAR is only 2.5...

 

Not sure what factors account for the discrepancies... because Bogaerts' fWAR of 5.2 > bWAR of 4.9.

 

Franco, to me, is the best player in the AL right now -- or will be in 2022. Note: the preceding is based on only a basic SSS vs. the Red Sox, which is basically, they couldn't get him out.

[Old Red]

ERod Offered a Multi-Year Deal by Sox

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/red-sox-rumors-eduardo-rodriguez-multi-year-offer.html

 

A legit deal, or a non legit John Lester type deal?

[moonslav59]

Great line-up; is this from 2021 or career?

 

If just '21, Wander Franco beats them all in his 70 games -- if you use his 3.5 bWAR. But his fWAR is only 2.5...

 

Not sure what factors account for the discrepancies... because Bogaerts' fWAR of 5.2 > bWAR of 4.9.

 

Franco, to me, is the best player in the AL right now -- or will be in 2022. Note: the preceding is based on only a basic SSS vs. the Red Sox, which is basically, they couldn't get him out.

 

This is 2021 only and players who met the min games requirement.

[moonslav59]

A legit deal, or a non legit John Lester type deal?

 

I'm guessing a decent deal but maybe only 3 years- something like $19M x 3.

 

Maybe $17M x 4 (like Eovaldi)

 

$16M x 5?

[Old Red]

I'm guessing a decent deal but maybe only 3 years- something like $19M x 3.

 

Maybe $17M x 4 (like Eovaldi)

 

$16M x 5?

 

I’m just guessing too, but I think E Rod is going to another team.

[moonslav59]

I’m just guessing too, but I think E Rod is going to another team.

 

You may very well be right.

 

There will be a lot of teams willing to pay him a lot.

 

He's still pretty young and has been pitching with an horrific defense behind him. GMs know this.

 

We'll probably settle on Matz at $12M x 4.

Edited November 11, 2021 by moonslav59

[Old Red]

You may very well be right.

 

There will be a lot of teams willing to pay him a lot.

 

He's still pretty young and has been pitching with an horrific defense behind him. GMs know this.

 

We'll probably settle on Matz at $14M x 4.

 

Wouldn’t Matz be a downgrade?

[Bellhorn04]

Wouldn’t Matz be a downgrade?

 

More than likely. But he's only projected to get 3 years @ $9 mill.

[moonslav59]

Wouldn’t Matz be a downgrade?

 

To me, very much so, and I like Matz!

 

Who knows what our winter spending budget is, or how Bloom places value on ERod vs Matz or other starters out there.

Edited November 11, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

November 20th is the Rule 5 date for protecting players from the draft in December.

 

Here is the complete list of eligible Rule 5 players in the Sox system:

 

Brayan Bello

Kole Cottam

Kutter Crawford

Jeter Downs

Durbin Feltman

Victor Santos

Josh Winckowski

 

Cole Brannen

Franchy Cordero

Tyler Dearden

Tyler Esplin

Frank German

Devlin Granberg

Kyle Hart

Gilberto Jimenez

Kaleb Ort

Yusniel Padron-Artiles

AJ Politi

Tyreque Reed

John Schreiber

Thaddeus Ward

Marco Cardoso

Pedro Castellanos

Felix Cepeda

Ricardo Cubillan

Osvaldo De La Rosa

Jonathan Diaz

Ryan Fernandez

Ryan Fitzgerald

Antoni Flores

Rio Gomez

Geoff Hartlieb

Zack Kelly

Dominic LoBrutto

Bryan Lucas

Charlie Madden

Elih Marrero

Joan Martinez

Alexander Montero

Oddanier Mosqueda

Brendan Nail

Aaron Perry

Ceddanne Rafaela

Oscar Rangel

Jesus Rosillo

Roniel Raudes

Yasel Santana

Zach Schellinger

Gregori Segovia

Chase Shugart

Caleb Simpson

Miguel Suero

Jake Thompson

Grant Williams