A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

Stroman is a lesser pitcher than ERod.

 

Nope.

[notin]

Wow. I had never looked at Castellanos' defensive stats before. Peeyew.

 

He's not much different of a hitter than Schwarber and JD, at least over the last 3 years...

[notin]

Nope.

 

Well, actually, yes.

 

I mean, as long as we are suing unsupported counterarguments...

[mvp 78]

Well, actually, yes.

 

I mean, as long as we are suing unsupported counterarguments...

 

I would never do that.

[mvp 78]

He's not much different of a hitter than Schwarber and JD, at least over the last 3 years...

 

He's a very, very good hitter.

[moonslav59]

I know wins are a "team stat," but ERod is a winner- plain and simple.

 

Replacing him will not be easy.

 

I hope he takes the QO.

 

Team Record in ERod Starts:

 

19-4 2018

26-8 2019

n/a 2020

19-12 2021

 

That's 64-24 total or a 73% winning %. Does any MLB pitcher have a better team winning percent in their starts? Is this a MLB record for an 85+ start stretch?

 

His record is 45-19. Despite missing 2020, he's still 6th in wins and just 4 wins from second.

 

Edited November 4, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

1000+ PAs (Last 3 years)

.948 Betts (.895 last 3 years)

.929 Freeman (.946 last 3 years)

.917 JD (.869)

.910 Cruz (.936)

.894 Bogey (.899)

.880 Story (.864)

.872 Castellanos (.880)

.864 Seager (.876)

.851 Schwarber (.862)

.850 Devers (.886)

.843 Bryant (.845)

.836 Cron (.846)

.830 Belt (.859)

.819 Baez (.789)

.816 S Marte (.829)

.815 Conforto (.824)

.811 Correa (.844)

.811 Semien (.854)

.796 Verdugo

[Bellhorn04]

Well, actually, yes.

 

I mean, as long as we are suing unsupported counterarguments...

 

Until now, I never noticed that "using" and "suing" are anagrams.

[mvp 78]

Until now, I never noticed that "using" and "suing" are anagrams.

 

I'm sure A700 noticed.

[notin]

Until now, I never noticed that "using" and "suing" are anagrams.

 

It's probably my second most frequent typo. My most frequent is "becasue", but that one at least gets caught by spell check software...

[a700hitter]

The numbers listed for the starting pitchers are too high considering that the in vogue strategy for starting pitchers is to go 3-5 innings at most.

[moonslav59]

The numbers listed for the starting pitchers are too high considering that the in vogue strategy for starting pitchers is to go 3-5 innings at most.

 

I was thinking the same, but those who do go 5 or do well enough the third time through May be worth close to projected values.

[mvp 78]

The numbers listed for the starting pitchers are too high considering that the in vogue strategy for starting pitchers is to go 3-5 innings at most.

 

Pitching is always at a premium. I think we'll see a lot of pitchers get more money than we expected, including ERod.

[moonslav59]

Is there any way to find out who the best pitchers are when facing batters the third time through the line-up?

 

My guess is they throw 4+ types of pitches and will be worth a lot of money.

[Bellhorn04]

Is there any way to find out who the best pitchers are when facing batters the third time through the line-up?

 

My guess is they throw 4+ types of pitches and will be worth a lot of money.

 

At this point you can probably just look at total innings and game logs, because all the managers are using the data.

[notin]

Is there any way to find out who the best pitchers are when facing batters the third time through the line-up?

 

My guess is they throw 4+ types of pitches and will be worth a lot of money.

 

B-R has those stats, but you have to look at each pitcher individually and one year at a time...

[moonslav59]

At this point you can probably just look at total innings and game logs, because all the managers are using the data.

 

It would take forever to look at each pitchers and with no way to find career or recent 3-4 year numbers without a masters in Math.

 

The 2021 Sox numbers:

Team

.743 first time

.715 second time

.900 third time

(There were only 16 PAs by opps on thier 4th time up vs a SP'er - .615.)

 

.673 Perez (65 PAs Against) The pitcher seemingly yanked quicker than anyone else!

.780 Eovaldi (182 PAs against)

.819 Sale (26)

.924 Richards (112)

1.011 Pivetta (119)

1.016 ERod 9126)

1.489 Houck (18)

 

2020

.222 Houck (only 9 PAs)

.571 Perez (49)

1.200 Eovaldi (43)

 

2019

.466 Eovaldi (39)

.612 Sale (157)

.761 (ERod (232)

 

 

[moonslav59]

B-R has those stats, but you have to look at each pitcher individually and one year at a time...

 

You can bring up team splits and get all Sox pitchers by year (see my last post).

[moonslav59]

Career OPS Against 3rd time through line-up:

 

.738 Stroman

.757 Gausman

.764 ERod

.910 R Ray

[mvp 78]

Career OPS Against 3rd time through line-up:

 

.738 Stroman

.757 Gausman

.764 ERod

.910 R Ray

 

Ray is a very unique case. He was a CY pitcher this year, but it's hard for me to see him repeating that performance.

[Bellhorn04]

Career OPS Against 3rd time through line-up:

 

.738 Stroman

.757 Gausman

.764 ERod

.910 R Ray

 

Holy crap, Ray is the poster boy for hooking after the second time through.

 

2021:

 

1st 596

2nd 550

3rd 930

 

And that's 193 PA's in the third number.

[moonslav59]

Holy crap, Ray is the poster boy for hooking after the second time through.

 

2021:

 

1st 596

2nd 550

3rd 930

 

And that's 193 PA's in the third number.

 

It's surprising they left him in for 193 PAs. It's only because he "looked so great" the first two times through.

 

How many Jays' posters would have bashed him has the pulled him earlier?

[mvp 78]

It's surprising they left him in for 193 PAs. It's only because he "looked so great" the first two times through.

 

How many Jays' posters would have bashed him has the pulled him earlier?

 

I think the "third time through the order" talking point has firmly stuck it's flag in the ground. I think most fans get it now.

[Bellhorn04]

I think the "third time through the order" talking point has firmly stuck it's flag in the ground. I think most fans get it now.

 

I don't like it, but it is what it is. Numbers are hard to get around.

[mvp 78]

I don't like it, but it is what it is. Numbers are hard to get around.

 

It's how I feel about the shift. It's just a strategy that may become passé at some point.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I think the "third time through the order" talking point has firmly stuck it's flag in the ground. I think most fans get it now.

 

Should starters now get paid two-thirds of what they used to make? Do middle relievers deserve a raise, depending on how many batters they retire in comparison to closers? Maybe pitching staff budgets should be based on piece-work for some kind of 27-out ratio. Is it unreasonable to expect some analytics departments working with GMs or CBOs on such a breakdown when planning offseason strategies?

[moonslav59]

I think the "third time through the order" talking point has firmly stuck it's flag in the ground. I think most fans get it now.

 

Is this something managers and organizations just noticed, recently, or are pitchers just doin much worse once they face batters 3+ times in a game?

 

Career 3rd/4th:

.669/.676 Scherzer (.650 career overall)

.654/.658 B Gibson (.622)

.604/.711 Pedro (.613)

.656/.684 Clemens (.636)

.684/.659 Maddux (.649)

 

[moonslav59]

I think this whole 3rd time through thing really adds value to guys like Houck and Whitlock, who can go 2-3+ innings every 3-4 days.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Is this something managers and organizations just noticed, recently, or are pitchers just doin much worse once they face batters 3+ times in a game?

 

Career 3rd/4th:

.669/.676 Scherzer (.650 career overall)

.654/.658 B Gibson (.622)

.604/.711 Pedro (.613)

.656/.684 Clemens (.636)

.684/.659 Maddux (.649)

 

 

It's logical that arms get tired throwing pitches in any era, but it's not coincidental that the only .400 hitters in history roamed the Jurassic Era, when starting pitchers regularly faced lineups four or even five times a day. Ted Williams admitted as much, because relief pitchers in his day were mostly mop-up guys not good enough to start; plus, very few pitchers ever threw over 90 mph (except Bob Feller).

[moonslav59]

It's logical that arms get tired throwing pitches in any era, but it's not coincidental that the only .400 hitters in history roamed the Jurassic Era, when starting pitchers regularly faced lineups four or even five times a day. Ted Williams admitted as much, because relief pitchers in his day were mostly mop-up guys not good enough to start; plus, very few pitchers ever threw over 90 mph (except Bob Feller).

 

I'm wondering what the league averages were back then and even just 3-10 years ago.