A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[Bellhorn04]

Should starters now get paid two-thirds of what they used to make? Do middle relievers deserve a raise, depending on how many batters they retire in comparison to closers? Maybe pitching staff budgets should be based on piece-work for some kind of 27-out ratio. Is it unreasonable to expect some analytics departments working with GMs or CBOs on such a breakdown when planning offseason strategies?

 

I think things will head in that direction for sure.

[moonslav59]

I'm wondering what the league averages were back then and even just 3-10 years ago.

 

Here are a few randomly selected middle of the road pitchers- career ...

 

3rd time/ overall

 

.754/.750 Porcello

.752/.717 S Wright

.790/.746 Wake

.803/.782 A Sele

.828/.772 Bob Stanley (as SP) .629/.696 (as RP)

[mvp 78]

Here are a few randomly selected middle of the road pitchers- career ...

 

3rd time/ overall

 

.754/.750 Porcello

.752/.717 S Wright

.790/.746 Wake

.803/.782 A Sele

.828/.772 Bob Stanley (as SP) .629/.696 (as RP)

 

Porcello was so underrated.

[mvp 78]

Should starters now get paid two-thirds of what they used to make? Do middle relievers deserve a raise, depending on how many batters they retire in comparison to closers? Maybe pitching staff budgets should be based on piece-work for some kind of 27-out ratio. Is it unreasonable to expect some analytics departments working with GMs or CBOs on such a breakdown when planning offseason strategies?

 

We'll have to see. I think starters will still get paid the same. I think the middle relievers are just seen as fungible assets that a team can burn through.

[Bellhorn04]

We'll have to see. I think starters will still get paid the same. I think the middle relievers are just seen as fungible assets that a team can burn through.

 

The landscape is changing rapidly though.

[mvp 78]

The landscape is changing rapidly though.

 

Landscape is changing. We'll see when the $$$ follows. I just don't see the course correcting happening this fast.

[moonslav59]

Porcello was so underrated.

 

He kept doing the same after 2 times through. That's for sure.

[a700hitter]

I don't like it, but it is what it is. Numbers are hard to get around.

I believe in playing the percentages, but taking a pitcher out the 3rd time through the order is not like playing the odds at the craps table. At the crap table, there is no such thing as a hot roller, but on the mound, pitchers can be having a genuinely good day where they are mowing down the opposition. Pitchers don’t go to the mound with the same stuff every time out. Taking out a pitcher who is in command purely because of the 3 rd time through the order stats is not playing the odds. It’s a cop out by managers who get paid to know when their pitchers are still effective or if they are tired etc. Taking them out at the 3rd turn through the order argues for Robo managers.

[Bellhorn04]

I believe in playing the percentages, but taking a pitcher out the 3rd time through the order is not like playing the odds at the craps table. At the crap table, there is no such thing as a hot roller, but on the mound, pitchers can be having a genuinely good day where they are mowing down the opposition. Pitchers don’t go to the mound with the same stuff every time out. Taking out a pitcher who is in command purely because of the 3 rd time through the order stats is not playing the odds. It’s a cop out by managers who get paid to know when their pitchers are still effective or if they are tired etc. Taking them out at the 3rd turn through the order argues for Robo managers.

 

I think it depends on the pitcher.

 

If you look at Robbie Ray's numbers, he fairly consistently mowed down hitters the first 2 times and got lit up the third time.

 

So you could say the Jays manager actually messed up whenever he didn't hook him after 2 times through.

[mvp 78]

I think it depends on the pitcher.

 

If you look at Robbie Ray's numbers, he fairly consistently mowed down hitters the first 2 times and got lit up the third time.

 

So you could say the Jays manager actually messed up whenever he didn't hook him after 2 times through.

 

It 100% depends on the pitcher. If a guy has 4 pitches and can save some looks for the 3rd and 4th time through the order, fine. If a guy has shown you everything his has in the first 2 AB's, get him out of there.

[Bellhorn04]

It 100% depends on the pitcher. If a guy has 4 pitches and can save some looks for the 3rd and 4th time through the order, fine. If a guy has shown you everything his has in the first 2 AB's, get him out of there.

 

Which can be befuddling to the average fan like me. Ryan only had 2 pitches and pitched a lot of complete games, not to mention no-hitters. I guess because his 2 pitches were that good.

[mvp 78]

Which can be befuddling to the average fan like me. Ryan only had 2 pitches and pitched a lot of complete games, not to mention no-hitters. I guess because his 2 pitches were that good.

 

Yeah, the stuff has to be absolutely electric to get by on 2 pitches. Sale can't do it.

[moonslav59]

Sox claim T.L.!

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/red-sox-to-claim-tim-locastro-from-yankees.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

[notin]

Sox claim T.L.!

 

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2021/11/red-sox-to-claim-tim-locastro-from-yankees.html?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=facebook

 

OK.

 

I do like Locastro as a bench player and pinch runner...

[notin]

Hunter Harvey was claimed off waivers by the Giants.

 

No word yet if Harvey was injured in the claiming process...

[Bellhorn04]

Hunter Harvey was claimed off waivers by the Giants.

 

No word yet if Harvey was injured in the claiming process...

 

You are the Injury Iceman.

[moonslav59]

OK.

 

I do like Locastro as a bench player and pinch runner...

 

31 SB/ 3 CS in about 500 PAs (career .333 OBP)

 

He's the next Whitlock!

[moonslav59]

OK.

 

I do like Locastro as a bench player and pinch runner...

 

So, we drop someone like Arauz?

[notin]

So, we drop someone like Arauz?

 

Maybe, but there are others on the 40 man who will go first. Starting with anyone declaring free agency…

[a700hitter]

It 100% depends on the pitcher. If a guy has 4 pitches and can save some looks for the 3rd and 4th time through the order, fine. If a guy has shown you everything his has in the first 2 AB's, get him out of there.

Agreed, but it has become too automatic a move for some managers. If they are doing their jobs, they should be able to see subtle changes with the pitcher’s stuff or command or that batters are reacting better after a couple of looks.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

OK.

 

I do like Locastro as a bench player and pinch runner...

 

I wonder if this acquisition may be a hint at a possible trade involving Duran? If not, Locastro fills the PR role off the pine, so that Jarren can still play everyday in Triple A.

 

Locastro has little power potential, so he doesn't exactly make Duran redundant, but if the slow-poke Sox are determined to get faster, they may as well start by adding the fastest runner in the big leagues.

[moonslav59]

Maybe, but there are others on the 40 man who will go first. Starting with anyone declaring free agency…

 

I have us at 4-5 open slots after DFA'ing or trading Potts and Rosario. If we sign or add 4-5 players then this guy means someone like Arauz or Davis has to go.

 

I'm not saying he is a downgrade from Arauz or Plawecki or others.

Edited November 6, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

I have us at 4-5 open slots after DFA'ing or trading Potts and Rosario. If we sign or add 4-5 players then this guy means someone like Arauz or Davis has to go.

 

I'm not saying he is a downgrade from Arauz or Plawecki or others.

 

 

Technically the Sox already have 5 open slots due to pending free agents…

[notin]

I wonder if this acquisition may be a hint at a possible trade involving Duran? If not, Locastro fills the PR role off the pine, so that Jarren can still play everyday in Triple A.

 

Locastro has little power potential, so he doesn't exactly make Duran redundant, but if the slow-poke Sox are determined to get faster, they may as well start by adding the fastest runner in the big leagues.

 

 

Whether or not the Sox trade a Baseball America to 30 prospect depends very, very little on whether or not they were able to claim career bench fodder Tim Locastro on waivers.

 

The fantasy that Duran was to fill the 4th outfielder/pinch runner role is largely limited to Red Sox forums unaffiliated with the team. It’s basically a fan pipe dream.

 

I assume by saying MLB’s fastest player, you were referring to Locastro and not Duran? Because apparently Locastro is the fastest player in MLB right now (tied with Trea Turner per StatCast)…

[moonslav59]

Technically the Sox already have 5 open slots due to pending free agents…

 

We will have 5-6 Rule 5’s to add, soon.

[notin]

We will have 5-6 Rule 5’s to add, soon.

 

The Sox might not add as many as we suspect.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Whether or not the Sox trade a Baseball America to 30 prospect depends very, very little on whether or not they were able to claim career bench fodder Tim Locastro on waivers.

 

The fantasy that Duran was to fill the 4th outfielder/pinch runner role is largely limited to Red Sox forums unaffiliated with the team. It’s basically a fan pipe dream.

 

I assume by saying MLB’s fastest player, you were referring to Locastro and not Duran? Because apparently Locastro is the fastest player in MLB right now (tied with Trea Turner per StatCast)…

 

And yet, even with your statements that you're very, very confident about, I'm still wondering if the Sox will trade Duran this offseason -- which you, yourself, have proposed a few times already.

 

I don't recall posters fantasizing about Duran as a bench player, but I do know that I've said he at least needs to be part of a regular platoon in the majors or back playing everyday at Triple A.

 

We all agree it would be great if Duran becomes what the team's CBO has predicted: a very good MLB player. Hopefully, that's in Boston, where speed is a rarity on the roster. Adding a guy like Locastro -- who led the MLB in Statcast sprint speed in '19 and '20 -- is two steps in the right direction... if Locastro doesn't lose a step recovering from his injury and makes the 26-man next Spring.

[moonslav59]

The Sox might not add as many as we suspect.

 

Almost certainly 4-5, which will take up the departing FA slots.

 

It's clear some players will be traded or DFA'd to make room for the Rule 5's, next FAs and guys like Lacastro- assuming he, himself, does not get DFA'd before the winter is over.

[moonslav59]

I don't recall posters fantasizing about Duran as a bench player, but I do know that I've said he at least needs to be part of a regular platoon in the majors or back playing everyday at Triple A.

 

There were a few posters who wanted Duran called up much earlier than he was, and when confronted with the possibility he'd be riding the bench instead of playing every game in AAA, they said they still wanted him on the 26, with comments like, "How can it hurt?"

 

Maybe the word "fantasize" is hyperbolic, but some were fine with him as the 4th OF'er much earlier than he became the 4th OF'er.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

There were a few posters who wanted Duran called up much earlier than he was, and when confronted with the possibility he'd be riding the bench instead of playing every game in AAA, they said they still wanted him on the 26, with comments like, "How can it hurt?"

 

Maybe the word "fantasize" is hyperbolic, but some were fine with him as the 4th OF'er much earlier than he became the 4th OF'er.

 

Duran needs to play, whether it's in Fenway, Worcester or a Boston rec league.