A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[mvp 78]

Are the Sox fans that high maintenance wife?

 

We think nothing of it to give a $10M raise to a pitcher at best had an average season at the same time complaining about our payroll being high.

 

Isn't there a better use of that $18M? Just asking.

 

1. Sox fans are not a hive mind. Some people want to spend and some are concerned about the luxury tax.

2. ERod was a 3.8 fWAR guy last year which was 19th in the league.

3. ERod had a career high k rate and career low bb rate last year.

[mvp 78]

Even if we wanted to be Tampa Bay North, we can't, unless we cut budget significantly. We should have $35-40M to spend and I see 3-5 open slots. We can't spend the $35M on 10 players. There is no roster slots for that.

 

We have to go somewhat big on 1-2 players. An $18.4M/1 deal for ERod is not a bad deal.

 

We might get someone better for cheaper per year, but not just one year.

 

We might get someone good for one year but not as good as ERod.

 

Also, it's likely that ERod turns the QO down and we get a comp pick for it.

[mvp 78]

The Bleacher Report has these FA predictions:

 

$340M/10 Correa (Marlins)

 

$280M/8 Seager (NYY)

 

$250M/7 Bryant (PHI)

 

$150M/5 Story (HOU)

 

$135M/5 R Ray (LAA)

 

$130M/5 Freeman (ATL)

 

$125M/5 Semien (SFG)

 

$100M/4 Gausman (TOR)

 

$92M/4 Stroman (NYM)

 

$80M/2 Scherzer (LAD)

 

Others not mentioned:

Javier Baez SS 29

Carlos Rodon LHP 29

Starling Marte OF 33

Nick Castellanos OF 30

N Syndergaard RHP 29

C Kershaw LHP 34

J Verlander RHP 39

Kyle Schwarber OF/DH/1B 29

Chris Taylor UT 31

Ra Iglesias Closer RHP 32

 

 

 

 

Stroman might be the best value listed.

[moonslav59]

My view:

 

Kike RF

Schwaber DH

Semien SS

Devers 3B

Marte CF

Verdugo LF

Dalbec/Casas 1B

Arroyo/Downs 2B

Vaz/Hernandez C

 

Eovaldi, Sale, Stroman, Pivetta, Houck, Seabold

 

Iglesias, Whitlock, Taylor, D-Hern, Sawamura, Brasier, Barnes, Valdez

 

UT: Casas, Downs, Duran

 

That would put us significantly over the current tax line, but maybe we'll go way over.

[mvp 78]

Not sure this is any better than the 2021 team, except for the rotation.

 

A lot of movement to put the same product on the field. I'm not sure it makes sense to move Xander just to bring Semien in.

[moonslav59]

Stroman might be the best value listed.

 

Agreed. For a while, I've been saying I would not sign Stroma to a long term deal, and I still think he gets more than $92M/4, but I'd give him that and even a bit more.

[moonslav59]

A lot of movement to put the same product on the field. I'm not sure it makes sense to move Xander just to bring Semien in.

 

True, but it solves the longer term SS issue beyond Bogey's opt out date.

[mvp 78]

Agreed. For a while, I've been saying I would not sign Stroma to a long term deal, and I still think he gets more than $92M/4, but I'd give him that and even a bit more.

 

Especially if Max is looking at an AAV of $40M. A 4 year deal for Stroman seems very reasonable.

[mvp 78]

True, but it solves the longer term SS issue beyond Bogey's opt out date.

 

Yes, but I'd rather just give the 25AAV to Xander.

[moonslav59]

Yes, but I'd rather just give the 25AAV to Xander.

 

You think he takes $25M x 6+

 

(I'd rather have Semien at $25M/5. He's a better fielder.)

[notin]

Stroman might be the best value listed.

 

Better than Rodon?

[moonslav59]

Especially if Max is looking at an AAV of $40M. A 4 year deal for Stroman seems very reasonable.

 

My guess is Max gets $35M x 2. Maybe they go $54M/3

[moonslav59]

Better than Rodon?

 

Rodon's price is not listed, but we can infer they think he'll make less than Stroman.

[notin]

Especially if Max is looking at an AAV of $40M. A 4 year deal for Stroman seems very reasonable.

 

But will it be the longest offer he gets?

[notin]

Rodon's price is not listed, but we can infer they think he'll make less than Stroman.

 

He's the best value out there, but tht operates on the assumption that he will do something he has always struggled to do - namely stay on the field...

[mvp 78]

Better than Rodon?

 

Stroman is a much more reliable pitcher than Rodon. Rodon has only thrown over 140 innings once in his career. He was lights out this year, but hadn't had a good season since 2016.

[mvp 78]

But will it be the longest offer he gets?

 

I'm going based on those values. If we're going to assume different numbers, then the whole conversation is pointless.

[mvp 78]

The only reason the Sox may stay away from Stroman is that they would prefer high K guys rather than pitching to contact guys. Thanks IF defense.

[notin]

A lot of movement to put the same product on the field. I'm not sure it makes sense to move Xander just to bring Semien in.

 

I'm not so sure I like the idea of moving Renfroe to accommodate Marte. Marte's 5.4 fWAR season looks like an aberration and he will most definitely be looking for multiyear deal...

[notin]

The only reason the Sox may stay away from Stroman is that they would prefer high K guys rather than pitching to contact guys. Thanks IF defense.

 

Or because he receives other offers in the 6 year range...

[Bellhorn04]

Stroman is not that much better than E-Rod. Maybe E-Rod will be the real "bargain" of the FA starters...

[notin]

Stroman is not that much better than E-Rod. Maybe E-Rod will be the real "bargain" of the FA starters...

 

Stroman is not better at all.

 

For their last 3 seasons (both pitchers missed 2020).

 

Stroman: 8.1 bWAR/8.8fWAR

Rodriguez: 10.9 bWAR/9.6 fWAR

 

 

I'll take ERod over Stroman...

[mvp 78]

I'm not so sure I like the idea of moving Renfroe to accommodate Marte. Marte's 5.4 fWAR season looks like an aberration and he will most definitely be looking for multiyear deal...

 

If they pay Marte like a 3 fWAR guy, I'm ok with it. Renfroe is below that level.

[mvp 78]

Or because he receives other offers in the 6 year range...

 

If his offer is for 6 years, CLEARLY IT'S LESS OF A VALUE.

[notin]

Nick Castellanos has opted out of his deal with the Reds. does this put him in the DH argument if JD does opt out?

 

Last 3 seasons:

Castellanos: (30 on opening day): OPS+ 124

Martinez (34 on opening day): OPS+ 125

Schwarber (29 on opening day): OPS+ 126

[mvp 78]

Stroman is not better at all.

 

For their last 3 seasons (both pitchers missed 2020).

 

Stroman: 8.1 bWAR/8.8fWAR

Rodriguez: 10.9 bWAR/9.6 fWAR

 

 

I'll take ERod over Stroman...

 

Last 4 years:

ERod 11.6 fWAR

Stroman 12.1 fWAR

[mvp 78]

Stroman: 5 years above 3 fWAR

ERod: 2 years above 3 fWAR

[notin]

If his offer is for 6 years, CLEARLY IT'S LESS OF A VALUE.

 

But it is still a reason to avoid him.

 

Stroman is a lesser pitcher than ERod. Offer ERod the QO and, if possible, extend him. Once ERod gets the QO, his value is less to other teams as they lose a drat pick, unlike the Sox.

 

Stroman does have the advantage of no QO attached, so his appeal will already be universal among teams that can afford him...

[mvp 78]

Nick Castellanos has opted out of his deal with the Reds. does this put him in the DH argument if JD does opt out?

 

Last 3 seasons:

Castellanos: (30 on opening day): OPS+ 124

Martinez (34 on opening day): OPS+ 125

Schwarber (29 on opening day): OPS+ 126

 

Wow. I had never looked at Castellanos' defensive stats before. Peeyew.

[notin]

Last 4 years:

ERod 11.6 fWAR

Stroman 12.1 fWAR

 

At this point, you're spanning 5 seasons. Not many pitchers are the same pitcher they were 5 years ago. Frankly. I felt using 3 seasons and 4 years was pushing it...