A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[jacksonianmarch]

I wonder if the sox would be another option for Chapman or Olson

[notin]

Who are we trading?

 

Jarren Duran is an obvious candidate…

[Old Red]

Jarren Duran is an obvious candidate…

 

Duran is not going to get you very much.

[moonslav59]

Duran is not going to get you very much.

 

Depends what GMs think of him and some others. We could trade Duran, Dalbec and Downs and go 3-D.

Edited November 17, 2021 by moonslav59

[Old Red]

Depends what GMs this no of him and some others. We could trade Duran, Dalbec and Downs and go 3-D.

 

Who are we trading these guys for?

[moonslav59]

Who are we trading these guys for?

 

According to BTV, we could get Montas and Trivino for Duran and one of Downs or Dalbec but maybe we’d need to give up Duran, Dalbec and Groome.

[Old Red]

According to BTV, we could get Montas and Trivino for Duran and one of Downs or Dalbec but maybe we’d need to give up Duran, Dalbec and Groome.

 

Well we always need pitching, and that is why we should have gotten some back in the Betts deal.

[notin]

Well we always need pitching, and that is why we should have gotten some back in the Betts deal.

 

We did. But he failed his physical…

[Old Red]

We did. But he failed his physical…

 

I know that, so they should have asked for a different pitcher.

[moonslav59]

I know that, so they should have asked for a different pitcher.

 

Well, we know almost certainly we could have gotten Kenta Maeda.

[notin]

Well, we know almost certainly we could have gotten Kenta Maeda.

 

So sad. We missed out on a starting pitcher whose topped 135 innings twice in 6 years…

[moonslav59]

So sad. We missed out on a starting pitcher whose topped 135 innings twice in 6 years…

 

True, but two points to add:

 

1. Maeda pitched in relief quite a bit some of those years.

 

2. I might rather have Maeda at the low cost he signed for than Wong and Downs.

[notin]

True, but two points to add:

 

1. Maeda pitched in relief quite a bit some of those years.

 

2. I might rather have Maeda at the low cost he signed for than Wong and Downs.

 

 

1. Maeda is a (maybe slightly above?) average starter who had a terrific 2020 “season” that stands out from the rest of his career.

 

2. Would acquiring an MLB pitcher who was already over 30 really have made sense in a trade for the Sox best position player?

[Bellhorn04]

True, but two points to add:

 

1. Maeda pitched in relief quite a bit some of those years.

 

2. I might rather have Maeda at the low cost he signed for than Wong and Downs.

 

"Might" is right. Your final verdict will depend on how Downs develops, right?

[jacksonianmarch]

Downs was rushed. He had all of 12 games in AA pre pandemic. Since they didn’t need him early and knew they didn’t, it would have behooved them to start him in AA and build his confidence. Instead, he was ok in AAA for a few months then went in the shitter deep in the summer and never really pulled out of it. He’s a guy I’d be interested in seeing get another full year in AAA now that he’s not missed a full season and now that he should be comfortable

[moonslav59]

1. Maeda is a (maybe slightly above?) average starter who had a terrific 2020 “season” that stands out from the rest of his career.

 

2. Would acquiring an MLB pitcher who was already over 30 really have made sense in a trade for the Sox best position player?

 

I just pointed out that we pretty much know one pitcher we could have gotten, since he was traded for Graterol.

 

It's a close call, but at the time, I wanted Maeda and his very team-friendly contract.

 

I'd probably still say yes.

[moonslav59]

"Might" is right. Your final verdict will depend on how Downs develops, right?

 

In hindsight, yes, but even, now, it's a close call.

 

I think I'd rather have had Maeda than Wong & Downs, but certainly that could prove to be the wrong answer.

 

(Nothing against Downs or Wong; I just like pitching more.)

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Don't forget, if the 2020 Red Sox had 2020 Kenta Maeda, then Boston most likely wouldn't have Marcelo Mayer on the farm right now...

[moonslav59]

Don't forget, if the 2020 Red Sox had 2020 Kenta Maeda, then Boston most likely wouldn't have Marcelo Mayer on the farm right now...

 

True, but we could have benched him, if that's what we wanted all along.

[notin]

True, but we could have benched him, if that's what we wanted all along.

 

Then why have him?

[moonslav59]

Then why have him?

 

It was sarcasm.

 

I think Maeda's production will end up being better than Downs+Wong, but it's not a clear choice.

[mvp 78]

True, but two points to add:

 

1. Maeda pitched in relief quite a bit some of those years.

 

2. I might rather have Maeda at the low cost he signed for than Wong and Downs.

 

Maeda was great in a season we didn't need him (2020) and bad in a season we would have needed him (2021).

 

Nothing of value was lost.

[mvp 78]

Downs was rushed. He had all of 12 games in AA pre pandemic. Since they didn’t need him early and knew they didn’t, it would have behooved them to start him in AA and build his confidence. Instead, he was ok in AAA for a few months then went in the shitter deep in the summer and never really pulled out of it. He’s a guy I’d be interested in seeing get another full year in AAA now that he’s not missed a full season and now that he should be comfortable

 

Downs turned it around towards the end of the season and has looked solid in the AFL. People shouldn't write him off just yet.

[moonslav59]

Maeda was great in a season we didn't need him (2020) and bad in a season we would have needed him (2021).

 

Nothing of value was lost.

 

1. I don't think you can assume anyone would have the same stats had they been with another team playing different opponents in different parks with different defense behind them.

 

2. I was comparing who projects to more total value- not who would help the team when most needed (going forward). If this is the main criteria, then I'll take Downs & Wong or Graterol over Maeda.

 

3. It's hard to imagine Maeda helping us go farther in 2021 than we did, assuming he pitched close to the same, but he might still have been better than Perez or some other clowns.

[moonslav59]

Downs turned it around towards the end of the season and has looked solid in the AFL. People shouldn't write him off just yet.

 

I'm not, but he does seem to be part of many of my BTV trades.

Edited November 17, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

Downs turned it around towards the end of the season and has looked solid in the AFL. People shouldn't write him off just yet.

 

They never should have.

 

He barely touched AA in 2019, then did not play at all in 2020, and then was effectively bumped up 2 levels for 2021 after not playing for a full year. His struggles were not a surprise, and his biggest crime was failing to be Juan Soto...

[moonslav59]

They never should have.

 

He barely touched AA in 2019, then did not play at all in 2020, and then was effectively bumped up 2 levels for 2021 after not playing for a full year. His struggles were not a surprise, and his biggest crime was failing to be Juan Soto...

 

No, his biggest crime is being named "Jeter."

[mvp 78]

They never should have.

 

He barely touched AA in 2019, then did not play at all in 2020, and then was effectively bumped up 2 levels for 2021 after not playing for a full year. His struggles were not a surprise, and his biggest crime was failing to be Juan Soto...

 

I don't know if it was even the adjustment to AAA that he struggle with. He had an OPS above 700 from May - June, but had a horrific July and August. Maybe it was just the year off from COVID affected his concentration or stamina during the middle of the season? IDK.

[notin]

I don't know if it was even the adjustment to AAA that he struggle with. He had an OPS above 700 from May - June, but had a horrific July and August. Maybe it was just the year off from COVID affected his concentration or stamina during the middle of the season? IDK.

 

 

I think both. Struggling to adjust to AAA after taking a year off…

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Bogaerts may not be a Hall of Famer, but here's the list of AL shortstops who have won four or more Silver Sluggers in 40+ years of the award:

Ripken, ARod, Jeter, Bogie.

 

Career OPS: ARoid .930, Jetes .817, X-Man .812, Cal .788 (all but Captain Intangibles also spent time at 3B).