A Realistic View at 2022: Part I

[moonslav59]

You are saying what you think may happen, but not necessarily what you recommend for next season. Some of what happens will be based upon how much Henry is willing to spend and how competitive the front office sees the team in 2022. If more resources were available, you might well recommend a different path.

 

S1. Sale (I no longer see Sale as our #1 starter despite his ace level contract through 2024. I see him as a #3 if he can stay healthy and perhaps improve.)

S2. ____ (I'd be thrilled if we could pick up a #2 level starter to bolster the staff. Bif bucks but hopefully reasonable contract length depending on his age)

S3. Eovaldi (I see Eovaldi as our current #1 starter or #2. He is here through 2022 and is worth his contract.)

S4. I happy with Pivetta as a #4 or #5 starter. I think Bloom got a steal with him

S5. I would be happy if Bloom picks up a serviceable #4 or #5 starter while I expect E-Rod to opt for FA and Richards and Perez to be gone.)

S6. I think we look at Seabold, Houck and Witlock as furnishing a starter when the inevitable injuries occr.

 

R1. Houck

R2. Whitlock

R3. _____ (I'm for adding a quality RP as a setup man

R4. Barnes ( I would trade Barnes if we see an interested party and we can get a solid return)

R5. Taylor

R6. DHern

R7. Brasier

R8. Sawamura

R9. Valdez/Davis/Bazardo (I would keep Robles before Davis. Both have issues but Robles still has an impact arm. Other relief help from the minors will be needed. The choices may expand for next year)

 

C Vaz, Plawecki (Finding a FA catcher we can afford could be difficult, but replacing Vaz should be a Bloom priority. Hernandez in the minors may offer some flexibility as a backup)

1B Dalbec, Casas (The option of using Devers at 1st should be explored. Hold on to Dalbec for his utility and delay Casas until 2023 or the experimental results can be assessed

2B Arroyo ( Go into the FA market and sign Simien and keep Arroyo for Util. Don't resign Iggy)

SS Bogaerts (Move Bogie to third where range issues will not be a problem. Sign Trevor Story)

3rd devers (move Devers to first and Bogie to 3rd)

 

LF Verdugo (Verdugo is solid and Duran can backup the outfield. Time to cut Cordero loose)

CF Kike (If we don't bring Kike to 2nd then he has done well in CF and can be left there

RF Renfroe (Renfroe has had his best offensive year and is acceptable even if not a top defensive outiflelder

DH JDM ( If JDM doesn't opt out, I would trade him and bring in Schwaber)

 

What I am suggesting would require a large expenditure but would make us a powerful team capable of competing at the highest level. I doubt if Bloom will have the inclination, or the mandate to make such bold moves. It is a path to the top for 2022.

 

Just some observations on your insightful comments...

 

I'd like to keep Robles over Davis, too, but Robles is a FA, and Davis is not.

I'd keep Cordero on the 40 man, in hopes that he reaches his potential.

Trading Barnes when his stock is low, may not be a good idea.

Trading Bogey rather than watch him sulk at 3B may be a better option.

Moving Devers to 1B does create a mega logjam that may necessitate a trade (Casas or Dalbec?)

I still see Sale as a #1 or #2, but he has not looked like one, this year.

I am not certain Eovaldi will repeat 2021 in 2022, but calling him a #1 or #2 is fine with me. Either way, I think Bloom looks to add a solid #2, at worst. Maybe that's just my hopes seeping into what I think will happen, but I have to think Bloom looks at our starters from this year and sees a high need for a solid starter, whether ERod returns or not.

The pen moves depend a lot on where Whitlock and Houck are intended to be slotted.

I like Seabold, but would like him slotted as out #7 SP'er. (#6, if we solidify our pen at the expense of adding a #4 SP'er on top of a #2.)

 

[dgalehouse]

Plawecki is an okay backup catcher. Vazquez is better.

[moonslav59]

Yes, it's crucial to id who the 'garbage' is, and why other teams are so blind to that we can trade them for 'medium free agents'. Nearly everyone on the roster has been called garbage at some point this year, so it's hard to keep track. -JAD

 

Ain't that the truth.

 

There was a lot of Renfroe bashing in late April.

Cora was being roasted for using a "career utility guy" (Kike) at lead off into June.

Verdugo was bashed when he went into a mid season swoon.

Dalbec deserves a category, all by himself.

Even Devers defense was bashed, and he had a couple slumps that got people talking.

Arroyo's injuries. Bogey's second half cliff. Even steady JD was bashed.

The SP'ers deserved most of their lashings. The pen was praised for months, then imploded on a massive scale, led by Barnes.

 

I have praised Bloom for improving the depth of our 40man roster and beyond (players not needing to be placed on the 40 man,) but we still have room to improve our depth and our top quality at the top of our 26 man roster.

 

I've mentioned a minimum number of 4 key additions needed, this winter:

 

1) a solid SP'er

2) a solid #3/4 SP'er (ERod?)

3) a solid set up RP'er (assuming Houck and or Whitlock are in the pen)

4) a solid, and I mean no Marwins, infield utility man (Arroyo, if we add a starting 2Bman?)

 

These additions do not negate the need to improve the bottom of the 40, but some of that will be done by adding our rule 5 protectees, who look vastly better than the guys they will be replacing and exponentially better than the bottom of our 40 man roster in 2020.

 

I've posted something similar to this, before, but here might be the framework for our 40 man roster, next year with 4 slots left open for FAs or trade additions:

 

S1 ______

S2 Eovaldi

S3 Sale

S4 ______ (ERod on QO?)

S5 Pivetta

 

R1 Houck

R2 Whitlock (maybe the #4 SP'er)

R3 ______

R4 Taylor

R5 Barnes

R6 DHern

R7 Brasier

R8 Sawamura

 

C Vazquez (traded?), Plawecki (traded?)

1B Dalbec

2B Arroyo, _____ (utility)

3B Devers (to 1B?), Casas

SS Bogaerts (traded? to 3B/2B?)

LF Verdugo, Duran

CF Kike

RF Renfroe

DH/OF Martinez (traded? Schwarber?)

 

Other 14 players on the 40man roster:

 

SP: Seabold, Bello (Rule 5), Crawford (Rule 5), Winckowski (Rule 5), V Santos (Rule 5), Mata, Groome

RP: Valdez, A Davis, Feltman (Rule 5)

C: Wong, R Hernandez (maybe on replaces Plawecki on 26)

IF: Arauz, Downs (Rule 5)

OF: Cordero

 

Bubble/traded/DFA'd: Rosario, Potts, Munoz

 

Not Rule 5 protected: G Jimenez, T Ward, F German, D Granberg, K Ort, T Reed

[moonslav59]

Plawecki is an okay backup catcher. Vazquez is better.

 

Is Vaz worth the $7M, and since he's a FA after 2022, should we start thinking about replacing him, sooner rather than later?

 

Plawecki hits pretty well for a back-up, but he made $1.6M, this year and is up for his final arb year. Not tendering him an arb offer or trading him might make sense, too.

 

If we feel Wong or Ronald Hernandez could be a fine back-up, it might be a way to save a little money and open another slot on our 40 man roster for a Rule 5 player, a bubble player like Rosario or Potts, or another free agent or trade addition.

 

The catching position is in play, this winter, IMO.

[dgalehouse]

Is Vaz worth the $7M, and since he's a FA after 2022, should we start thinking about replacing him, sooner rather than later?

 

Plawecki hits pretty well for a back-up, but he made $1.6M, this year and is up for his final arb year. Not tendering him an arb offer or trading him might make sense, too.

 

If we feel Wong or Ronald Hernandez could be a fine back-up, it might be a way to save a little money and open another slot on our 40 man roster for a Rule 5 player, a bubble player like Rosario or Potts, or another free agent or trade addition.

 

The catching position is in play, this winter, IMO.

 

I don't have a problem with Vazquez making 7 mil. He has been with the team seven years. These guys build their salary with their service time , just like in any business.

[moonslav59]

I don't have a problem with Vazquez making 7 mil. He has been with the team seven years. These guys build their salary with their service time , just like in any business.

 

I think he is worth close to $7M, too. I'm just wondering, if we can cut some corners at the catching position without losing a step, while adding funds to other areas of high need.

 

Bringing back both Vaz and Plawecki makes sense, too.

 

With one year of team control, I think GMs start looking at moves and other options.

Edited October 6, 2021 by moonslav59

[Nick]

I realize we all have valid points about the Sox. But I always want to hear what Bloom and Cora are saying.

 

One thing about this management group is they are very patient with a player. They do their homework. They won't throw away their original evaluation after few weeks.

 

Kike I think is the best example. I was his biggest basher. Now I'm a fan. His versatility really fits well with Cora's coaching style.

 

Guys like to play for Cora and that maybe his best quality as the manager.

 

It's been a fun year. Best of all, WE GOT SEE MANY PLAYERS IN OUR ORGANIZATION WHILE GETTING TO THE DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS. It wasn't always pretty, but we got to see little glimpse of future Sox organization.

[mvp 78]

I realize we all have valid points about the Sox. But I always want to hear what Bloom and Cora are saying.

 

One thing about this management group is they are very patient with a player. They do their homework. They won't throw away their original evaluation after few weeks.

 

Kike I think is the best example. I was his biggest basher. Now I'm a fan. His versatility really fits well with Cora's coaching style.

 

Guys like to play for Cora and that maybe his best quality as the manager.

 

It's been a fun year. Best of all, WE GOT SEE MANY PLAYERS IN OUR ORGANIZATION WHILE GETTING TO THE DIVISIONAL PLAYOFFS. It wasn't always pretty, but we got to see little glimpse of future Sox organization.

 

@alexspeier

Cora said he won’t address the team before the game: ‘No rah-rah stuff. If you need that, you’re in the wrong business.’

[moonslav59]

@alexspeier

Cora said he won’t address the team before the game: ‘No rah-rah stuff. If you need that, you’re in the wrong business.’

 

Damn straight.

[notin]

Yes, it's crucial to id who the 'garbage' is, and why other teams are so blind to that we can trade them for 'medium free agents'. Nearly everyone on the roster has been called garbage at some point this year, so it's hard to keep track. -JAD

 

Ain't that the truth.

 

There was a lot of Renfroe bashing in late April.

Cora was being roasted for using a "career utility guy" (Kike) at lead off into June.

Verdugo was bashed when he went into a mid season swoon.

Dalbec deserves a category, all by himself.

Even Devers defense was bashed, and he had a couple slumps that got people talking.

Arroyo's injuries. Bogey's second half cliff. Even steady JD was bashed.

The SP'ers deserved most of their lashings. The pen was praised for months, then imploded on a massive scale, led by Barnes.

 

I have praised Bloom for improving the depth of our 40man roster and beyond (players not needing to be placed on the 40 man,) but we still have room to improve our depth and our top quality at the top of our 26 man roster.

 

I've mentioned a minimum number of 4 key additions needed, this winter:

 

1) a solid SP'er

2) a solid #3/4 SP'er (ERod?)

3) a solid set up RP'er (assuming Houck and or Whitlock are in the pen)

4) a solid, and I mean no Marwins, infield utility man (Arroyo, if we add a starting 2Bman?)

 

These additions do not negate the need to improve the bottom of the 40, but some of that will be done by adding our rule 5 protectees, who look vastly better than the guys they will be replacing and exponentially better than the bottom of our 40 man roster in 2020.

 

I've posted something similar to this, before, but here might be the framework for our 40 man roster, next year with 4 slots left open for FAs or trade additions:

 

S1 ______

S2 Eovaldi

S3 Sale

S4 ______ (ERod on QO?)

S5 Pivetta

 

R1 Houck

R2 Whitlock (maybe the #4 SP'er)

R3 ______

R4 Taylor

R5 Barnes

R6 DHern

R7 Brasier

R8 Sawamura

 

C Vazquez (traded?), Plawecki (traded?)

1B Dalbec

2B Arroyo, _____ (utility)

3B Devers (to 1B?), Casas

SS Bogaerts (traded? to 3B/2B?)

LF Verdugo, Duran

CF Kike

RF Renfroe

DH/OF Martinez (traded? Schwarber?)

 

Other 14 players on the 40man roster:

 

SP: Seabold, Bello (Rule 5), Crawford (Rule 5), Winckowski (Rule 5), V Santos (Rule 5), Mata, Groome

RP: Valdez, A Davis, Feltman (Rule 5)

C: Wong, R Hernandez (maybe on replaces Plawecki on 26)

IF: Arauz, Downs (Rule 5)

OF: Cordero

 

Bubble/traded/DFA'd: Rosario, Potts, Munoz

 

Not Rule 5 protected: G Jimenez, T Ward, F German, D Granberg, K Ort, T Reed

 

I doubt the Sox get too involved in free agency, simply because most of the non-shortstop options look pretty uninspiring. Free agency largely involves paying hefty sums of money for players exiting or past their primes. Beyond maybe Semien, who has already been rumored to be on Bloom's radar (and reportedly was last year), I think anyone he signs will probably not be of a big name and not for the PR aspect that free agency definitely creates.

 

Now if he deals Bogaerts, certainly getting involved become a different matter. And there are obvious reasons to deal Bogaerts (pending opt out) and reasons not to deal Bogaerts (very popular homegrown player with All Star pedigree)...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

 

Now if he deals Bogaerts, certainly getting involved become a different matter. And there are obvious reasons to deal Bogaerts (pending opt out) and reasons not to deal Bogaerts (very popular homegrown player with All Star pedigree)...

 

I'd guess the X pedigree of "winner" may now be even more attractive to his agent, in regards to opt-outs and other clubs looking soon to import championship culture. His heroics last night, however, were most likely less a recency and more just a reminder of Bogie's skills.

[moonslav59]

I doubt the Sox get too involved in free agency, simply because most of the non-shortstop options look pretty uninspiring. Free agency largely involves paying hefty sums of money for players exiting or past their primes. Beyond maybe Semien, who has already been rumored to be on Bloom's radar (and reportedly was last year), I think anyone he signs will probably not be of a big name and not for the PR aspect that free agency definitely creates.

 

Now if he deals Bogaerts, certainly getting involved become a different matter. And there are obvious reasons to deal Bogaerts (pending opt out) and reasons not to deal Bogaerts (very popular homegrown player with All Star pedigree)...

 

If Bloom has $40M to spend and 4-5 holes to fill, I agree; he will likely not make a big splash, unless he trades salary (Bogey and/or JD-Vaz).

 

If Bloom is give $55-60M and decides to just fill 3-4 slots via free agency or trades, we could see one big splash signing like Semien, Baez or Scherzer.

[Larry Cook]

I think Hang’em Chaim is going to continue what he did last off season as far as signings go.

[Nick]

I think Hang’em Chaim is going to continue what he did last off season as far as signings go.

 

If I'm a betting man, I'd go along with your line of thinking.

 

He maybe the type that will always look to see how much value he can add to the organization for $30M with multiple signings instead of paying one player that amount.

 

Why spend $300M on a pitcher when Whitlock maybe that pitcher who is already on the roster and is under team control for 5 more years? Houck pitched a perfect 5 inning game his last time out. He also threw a third pitch consistently during that outing. I think he's also too young to be 'banished' to the pen.

 

Isn't the goal to develop starting pitching? Whitlock and Houck appear to be far ahead of others when it comes to being a starter. That was always the plan with Whitlock wasn't it?

 

I'm in the fantasy baseball mode as with many of you. Henry didn't hire Bloom to play fantasy baseball.

Edited October 7, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

I think Hang’em Chaim is going to continue what he did last off season as far as signings go.

 

I’m not so sure, this winter. I do think he continues to look for shorter term deals like Renfroe and Kike, but I think he goes large and long on one guy, this winter or next.

 

Last winter, we had 7-9 holes in our 40 man roster with many of those on the 26. This year, it is maybe 5-6 with 3-4 on the 26 man roster. Even with the same amount of winter spending, the quality should go up as the quantity goes down.

 

I don’t see a major Rule 5 roster crunch, this winter, but I also don’t see much more room than 4-5 additions to the 40.

[Nick]

I’m not so sure, this winter. I do think he continues to look for shorter term deals like Renfroe and Kike, but I think he goes large and long on one guy, this winter or next.

 

Last winter, we had 7-9 holes in our 40 man roster with many of those on the 26. This year, it is maybe 5-6 with 3-4 on the 26 man roster. Even with the same amount of winter spending, the quality should go up as the quantity goes down.

 

I don’t see a major Rule 5 roster crunch, this winter, but I also don’t see much more room than 4-5 additions to the 40.

 

Problem with that is what do we do with Devers? You can't continue to hand out huge contracts. You have to make some choices.

 

Scenarios

 

1 Sign Scherzer, trade Devers for more pitching prospects, move Dalbec to 3B, bring up Casas

 

2 Sign Scherzer and extend Devers. This may hamstring us for several years financially if one or both doesn't deliver.

 

 

We're at the tax limit.

 

Moon, can you be more specific? Name names and project amounts required.

 

We have $48M coming off the books (Pedey, Beni, Richards, Ottavino, E Rod, Marwin, Perez) add back $5M for Barnes new contract.

 

So we have $43M before arbitration raises. (Vaz and JD returning).

 

If we spend $30M on one player, that may not cover arbitration raises.

 

THERE'S NO INDICATION THAT WE'LL GO OVER THE LUXURY TAX LIMIT. NONE.

Edited October 7, 2021 by Nick

[mvp 78]

I think signing FA's close to retirement and trading young talent is a great way to run a franchise.

[S5Dewey]

We as fans tend to think about how the Sox are going to look next season while Chaim is doing what he's paid to do. He's looking at how the Sox are going to look in 2022, 2023, and 2024, and those two goals aren't always compatible.

 

We criticized DD for going for the WSC and leaving the minors bare. Now we're lauding Chaim for rebuilding the minors while making the team competitive. I look for him to do what he's done in the past, to take a more patient approach and build toward winning the division in 2022 and looking at 2023 (and possibly beyond) to be in the WS, all the while making the minors stronger. That may mean trading some players who are nearing the end of their contracts for younger and cheaper players with promise.

 

I like to think that most of us agree with Bill James when he said that the best way to build a team that will be consistently competitive is by having a core group of solid players and paying FA money to players to fill needs not covered by the group of solid players. (and yes, I'm paraphrasing James, but that was the gist of what he said). That's what I see as Chaim's goal and thus far it seems to be working.

[moonslav59]

I’m not so sure, this winter. I do think he continues to look for shorter term deals like Renfroe and Kike, but I think he goes large and long on one guy, this winter or next.

 

Last winter, we had 7-9 holes in our 40 man roster with many of those on the 26. This year, it is maybe 5-6 with 3-4 on the 26 man roster. Even with the same amount of winter spending, the quality should go up as the quantity goes down.

 

I don’t see a major Rule 5 roster crunch, this winter, but I also don’t see much more room than 4-5 additions to the 40.

 

Problem with that is what do we do with Devers? You can't continue to hand out huge contracts. You have to make some choices.

 

Scenarios

 

1 Sign Scherzer, trade Devers for more pitching prospects, move Dalbec to 3B, bring up Casas

 

2 Sign Scherzer and extend Devers. This may hamstring us for several years financially if one or both doesn't deliver.

 

 

We're at the tax limit.

 

Moon, can you be more specific? Name names and project amounts required.

 

We have $48M coming off the books (Pedey, Beni, Richards, Ottavino, E Rod, Marwin, Perez) add back $5M for Barnes new contract.

 

So we have $43M before arbitration raises. (Vaz and JD returning).

 

If we spend $30M on one player, that may not cover arbitration raises.

 

THERE'S NO INDICATION THAT WE'LL GO OVER THE LUXURY TAX LIMIT. NONE.

 

We don't know what the lux tax is going to look like, but if nothing changes, I have us with about $40M to spend and stay under level 1.

 

That's close to what we spent, last winter, but this year, we have only 3-5 slots to fill not 7-9.

 

I'm not saying we go long and large, this winter, but I do think we do either this winter or next.

 

I think we can afford Devers and one big contract.

 

If we go up to level 2, we'll have plenty to spend on Devers and a $30M guys, arbs and 2-3 mid range contracts, too.

 

[Nick]

I think signing FA's close to retirement and trading young talent is a great way to run a franchise.

 

I believe Bloom's approach will continue. Incrementally improve the overall health of our organization. Acquiring Pivetta via trade and Whitlock via Rule 5 approach will be the rule going forward. And develop the FARM.

 

I'm just pointing out that signing a major free agent deal will hinder extending someone like Devers. I'm not advocating trading Devers.

 

Discussion is about Moon saying we'll sign a big money FA. I want to know who and how long and at what price.

 

I'm a former CPA. I like rolling 5 year budgets, not just 2022. You know what I mean? (obviously WE ALL KNOW that Price $ comes off, JD $ comes off, possibly Xander $ comes off, Kike $ comes off, Eovaldi $ comes off, all after 2022...that's total of $82.5M.....so Moon's plan maybe workable)

Edited October 7, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

I believe Bloom's approach will continue. Incrementally improve the overall health of our organization. Acquiring Pivetta via trade and Whitlock via Rule 5 approach will be the rule going forward. And develop the FARM.

 

I'm just pointing out that signing a major free agent deal will hinder extending someone like Devers. I'm not advocating trading Devers.

 

Discussion is about Moon saying we'll sign a big money FA. I want to know who and how long and at what price.

 

I'm a former CPA. I like rolling 5 year budgets, not just 2022. You know what I mean? (obviously WE ALL KNOW that Price $ comes off, JD $ comes off, possibly Xander $ comes off, Kike $ comes off, Eovaldi $ comes off, all after 2022...that's total of $82.5M.....so Moon's plan maybe workable)

 

Personally, I think we go large NOT long- like Scherzer or someone, next year.

 

We lose Price's $15M, next year plus JD and Boegy's deals. That's plenty of budget space to afford Devers and a big FA signing, but more holes that need to be filled, too.

 

It won't be easy, but if Bloom keeps finding Renfroes and Whitlocks, we can afford some big contracts every now and then.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

How about trading Vazquez in the offseason and going with Wong and Plawecki? Vazquez is such an atrocious hitter, I'm assuming Wong can produce the same numbers offensively that Vazquez produced this year and Wong is a really good defensive catcher with excellent athleticism.

 

It sounds like the Red Sox have a 7 million option on Vazquez? Do they pick it up and trade him or do people think this is a crazy idea?

[Old Red]

Personally, I think we go large NOT long- like Scherzer or someone, next year.

 

We lose Price's $15M, next year plus JD and Boegy's deals. That's plenty of budget space to afford Devers and a big FA signing, but more holes that need to be filled, too.

 

It won't be easy, but if Bloom keeps finding Renfroes and Whitlocks, we can afford some big contracts every now and then.

 

Why do you keep assuming that Bogey will be gone?

[mvp 78]

Why do you keep assuming that Bogey will be gone?

 

He's holding out hope against hope since he's been railing against Bogey for years because he's a "below average" SS and gets annoyed whenever someone says he's slightly above average.

 

Above Average Xander Bogaerts

[moonslav59]

Why do you keep assuming that Bogey will be gone?

 

I assume everyone who will be a FA or has an obvious opt out as gone. If they come back, I count that as signing a FA.

[moonslav59]

He's holding out hope against hope since he's been railing against Bogey for years because he's a "below average" SS and gets annoyed whenever someone says he's slightly above average.

 

 

Leaving out the key word "defensive" is pretty important and a gross misrepresentation of some of our views.

[mvp 78]

Leaving out the key word "defensive" is pretty important and a gross misrepresentation of some of our views.

 

I didn't intentionally leave that part out (especially since the link I provided sorts by defense). And you're still wrong about him being a below average defender. He has bad range, but is solid. He's just not flashy. He gets the job done. If he had a stronger 3b next to him, you wouldn't worry about his defense as much.

[notin]

I didn't intentionally leave that part out (especially since the link I provided sorts by defense). And you're still wrong about him being a below average defender. He has bad range, but is solid. He's just not flashy. He gets the job done. If he had a stronger 3b next to him, you wouldn't worry about his defense as much.

 

 

Did YOU just malign Devers’ defense? Who are you and why did you hack mvp78’s account?

[mvp 78]

Did YOU just malign Devers’ defense? Who are you and why did you hack mvp78’s account?

 

That was the coffee talking again.

[notin]

Why do you keep assuming that Bogey will be gone?

 

Do you actually think his agent, whose name rhymes with Scott Boras, will advise him to not opt out and therefore delay his free agency until he is 33 years old and will probably cost him about $50-100 mill when all is said and done?