A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[notin]

I don't see the M's getting better. They've tried spending. Nothing works.

 

I don't wish misery on you, but I just don't see success in the near future.

 

 

I live among Cubs fans who, for decades, embraced the team’s failure. Fans who proudly wore shirts that said “1908 World Series Champions” into the 2000’s. And who used phrases like “lovable losers” and sold out Wrigley even with the team in last place in August.

 

Is this what to expect from Mariners’ fans? Rather than embrace their teams failure, they start a new and completely useless concept of combining wins across multiple seasons to prove the team is competent but just unlucky, rather than coming to another obvious conclusion that the team is consistently mediocre and still never good enough?

[Bellhorn04]

Sometimes it takes a change in ownership to really turn a franchise around...

[mvp 78]

Sometimes it takes a change in ownership to really turn a franchise around...

 

As you can see in Anaheim, even a transcendent talent like Mike Trout can't move the bar much if the whole organization is stuck in the mud.

[moonslav59]

I live among Cubs fans who, for decades, embraced the team’s failure. Fans who proudly wore shirts that said “1908 World Series Champions” into the 2000’s. And who used phrases like “lovable losers” and sold out Wrigley even with the team in last place in August.

 

Is this what to expect from Mariners’ fans? Rather than embrace their teams failure, they start a new and completely useless concept of combining wins across multiple seasons to prove the team is competent but just unlucky, rather than coming to another obvious conclusion that the team is consistently mediocre and still never good enough?

 

They have a nice stadium.

[moonslav59]

I've ragged and ragged about the Sox D all year long. Here is a rundown of some numbers.

 

Our BAbip was an astronomical .324. The next team was at .304 and most teams were below .290. That, alone, shows just how severe it was. Our pitching might have been top 3 had we had a .290 BAbip.

 

AL Rankings (15 teams)

10th Fangraphs Def

8th DRS

7th UZR/150 (12th in range)

 

By position

4th LF (1st DRS)

5th SS (10th DRS)

6th CF (7th in DRS)

6th 2B (4th DRS)

9th RF (7th DRS)

10th C (6th DRS)

12th 3B (14th DRS)

14th 1B (15th DRS)

 

 

 

Edited October 26, 2021 by moonslav59

[Bellhorn04]

Confirms what a fine season Vaz had handling the staff.

[moonslav59]

Confirms what a fine season Vaz had handling the staff.

 

If he could only catch the balls none of our fielders could glove!

[Bellhorn04]

In the final analysis, it wasn't our defense that let us down in the ALCS. If there was anything to blame, it was the offense getting shut down the last 3 games, and the bullpen blowing a couple of leads.

[moonslav59]

In the final analysis, it wasn't our defense that let us down in the ALCS. If there was anything to blame, it was the offense getting shut down the last 3 games, and the bullpen blowing a couple of leads.

 

The D was a factor, too- just not all that blatantly obvious. Kike’s dropped flyball was pretty big. Maybe Schwarber could have got the runner out at home.

[Bellhorn04]

The D was a factor, too- just not all that blatantly obvious. Kike’s dropped flyball was pretty big. Maybe Schwarber could have got the runner out at home.

 

But Kike is one of the good defenders, so that's just random bad luck.

[moonslav59]

But Kike is one of the good defenders, so that's just random bad luck.

 

Agreed.

 

There was no final botched play loss, but there were missed plays that led to many runs.

[oldtimer]

Agreed.

 

There was no final botched play loss, but there were missed plays that led to many runs.

 

So one answer is not to play guys like Schwaber and Martinez in the field. We'll find out possibilities on that front following the WS. Bogie is in an opt out year coming up. It sounds like he sees big, long term contracts being paid and he wants in on that. That's nothing against him, who wouldn't, if they can get it. Personally, I think Bogie is a valuable player, but I wouldn't empty the bank for him. We will be facing the same with Devers soon, so we will see how Bloom deals with the idea of expensive long term contracts.

[moonslav59]

So one answer is not to play guys like Schwaber and Martinez in the field. We'll find out possibilities on that front following the WS. Bogie is in an opt out year coming up. It sounds like he sees big, long term contracts being paid and he wants in on that. That's nothing against him, who wouldn't, if they can get it. Personally, I think Bogie is a valuable player, but I wouldn't empty the bank for him. We will be facing the same with Devers soon, so we will see how Bloom deals with the idea of expensive long term contracts.

 

It won’t be easy to improve the defense without trading or shuffling positions. I do think we may see improvement from Dalbec and Devers, and if Kike can play FT CF, that will be a plus there. 2B is the easiest position to bring in outside help without messing with other positions. I like Arroyo, but his health is always in question. Bringing back aight makes a lot of sense, even if he hits under .700.

 

I’m thinking next year might be the best time to upgrade defense. Well know more about Devers, Dalbec, Casas and where Bogey will be. We may lose Kike, but maybe not.

[moonslav59]

AL Team Stats

 

OBP

.339 HOU

.336 CWS

.330 TOR

.328 BOS

.322 NYY

.321 TBR

.316 OAK

 

SLG

.466 TOR

.449 BOS

.444 HOU

.428 TBR

.423 MN

.422 CWS

.407 CLE

.407 NYY

 

ISO

.200 TOR

.188 BOS

.186 TBR

.182 MN

.177 HOU

.169 NYY

 

Base Running (fangraphs)

132. KC

11.8 OAK

11.2 TBR

7.4 CLE

6.8 LAA

2.8 TOR

 

We were...

2nd in BAbip .309

8th in BB/K 0.37

5th best K% 22.6

8th best BB% 8.4

5th in Hard Hit Ball % (33.1%)

5th in LD% (20.8)

14th in GB/FB (1.04)

7th HR/FB 13.7%

 

[moonslav59]

Here are some BAbip numbers for our pitchers in recent years. They help reflect how bad our defense has gotten.

 

Team

.323 (2021)

.332 (2020)

.312 (2019)

.294 (2018)

 

(2021>2020>2019>2018, if with Sox)

 

Eovaldi

.326 ('21)

.336 ('20)

.315 ('19)

.325 ('18)

 

ERod

.363 ('21)

n/a ('20)

.317 ('19)

.301 ('18)

 

Sale

.358 ('21)

n/a ('20)

.309 ('19)

.283 ('18)

 

Pivetta

.288 ('21)

.304 ('20)

 

Perez

.336 ('21)

.266 ('20)

 

Barnes

.306 ('21)

.275 ('20)

.339 ('19)

.321 ('18)

 

Brasier

.286 ('21) 12 IP

.328 ('20)

.286 ('19)

.198 ('18)

 

Taylor

.355 ('21)

n/a ('20)

.321 ('19)

 

ERod and Sale were affected the most.

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Here are some BAbip numbers for our pitchers in recent years. They help reflect how bad our defense has gotten.

 

Team

.323 (2021)

.332 (2020)

.312 (2019)

.294 (2018)

 

(2021>2020>2019>2018, if with Sox)

 

Eovaldi

.326 ('21)

.336 ('20)

.315 ('19)

.325 ('18)

 

ERod

.363 ('21)

n/a ('20)

.317 ('19)

.301 ('18)

 

Sale

.358 ('21)

n/a ('20)

.309 ('19)

.283 ('18)

 

Pivetta

.288 ('21)

.304 ('20)

 

Perez

.336 ('21)

.266 ('20)

 

Barnes

.306 ('21)

.275 ('20)

.339 ('19)

.321 ('18)

 

Brasier

.286 ('21) 12 IP

.328 ('20)

.286 ('19)

.198 ('18)

 

Taylor

.355 ('21)

n/a ('20)

.321 ('19)

 

ERod and Sale were affected the most.

 

 

Prefacing with how much I appreciated the fire of Verdugo, the spark of Kike, and the gun of Renfroe... but the best defense behind that 2018 staff of predominantly fly-ball pitchers was the fly-chasing, Win-Dance-Repeat trio; all three Thriller Bs were nominated once again for Gold Gloves this season.

[moonslav59]

Prefacing with how much I appreciated the fire of Verdugo, the spark of Kike, and the gun of Renfroe... but the best defense behind that 2018 staff of predominantly fly-ball pitchers was the fly-chasing, Win-Dance-Repeat trio; all three Thriller Bs were nominated once again for Gold Gloves this season.

 

Betts is the only one better than our current Of'ers.

[Bellhorn04]

Prefacing with how much I appreciated the fire of Verdugo, the spark of Kike, and the gun of Renfroe... but the best defense behind that 2018 staff of predominantly fly-ball pitchers was the fly-chasing, Win-Dance-Repeat trio; all three Thriller Bs were nominated once again for Gold Gloves this season.

 

A Gold Glove nomination is small consolation for Bradley and the Brewers. JBJ:

 

a) hit .163 with 6 HR and 29 RBI

had a -0.7 bWAR and -0.8 fWAR

c) was benched for the NLDS

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A Gold Glove nomination is small consolation for Bradley and the Brewers. JBJ:

 

a) hit .163 with 6 HR and 29 RBI

had a -0.7 bWAR and -0.8 fWAR

c) was benched for the NLDS

 

He had a brutal season offensively, but my post replied to Moon's chart that showed "how bad our defense has gotten". Most observers would say the strongest part of the '21 Red Sox defense was the outfield -- but even that wasn't as good as the strongest part of the '18 Sox D.

 

All three Win-Dance-Repeat outfielders were once again nominated for Gold Gloves this year. None of the current Sox outfielders were nominated, though they all had solid to spectacular moments in the field. But most diehards, if they're honest, would probably admit they saw plays this year when they couldn't help but think, "Bah, _________ would've had that."

 

Bloom could upgrade the outfield D by making one trade or signing. But his biggest problem is the infield, where consistent improvements by holdovers or moves across the diamond, or personnel changes seem required for Boston to be better in '22.

 

Or he can just go Braves and build a killer bullpen (which is never guaranteed) and hope the O stays hot for an entire October.

[Bellhorn04]

He had a brutal season offensively, but my post replied to Moon's chart that showed "how bad our defense has gotten". Most observers would say the strongest part of the '21 Red Sox defense was the outfield -- but even that wasn't as good as the strongest part of the '18 Sox D.

 

I'm much more into WAR than I am into defense as an isolated value.

 

The 2021 JBJ is an example of a player whose defensive contributions are destroyed by offensive ineptitude to the point that you sit them on the bench for the playoffs.

[jad]

I'm much more into WAR than I am into defense as an isolated value.

 

The 2021 JBJ is an example of a player whose defensive contributions are destroyed by offensive ineptitude to the point that you sit them on the bench for the playoffs.

 

Just checked JBJ's 2021 line. YIKES! What happened? .160? the streaky hitter we recall seems to be gone, and now he's consistently a .150 hitter. Surely this is fixable, no? Or is Milwaukee thinking 'what's the point?'

[notin]

A Gold Glove nomination is small consolation for Bradley and the Brewers. JBJ:

 

a) hit .163 with 6 HR and 29 RBI

had a -0.7 bWAR and -0.8 fWAR

c) was benched for the NLDS

 

 

d) for said efforts, he was paid $13 million, and is still owed another $11 million for next season…

[moonslav59]

Just checked JBJ's 2021 line. YIKES! What happened? .160? the streaky hitter we recall seems to be gone, and now he's consistently a .150 hitter. Surely this is fixable, no? Or is Milwaukee thinking 'what's the point?'

 

He never had his patented white hot streak (or two) that always brings his OPS up to respectability.

[moonslav59]

On defense in 2021:

 

Verdugo> Beni

 

Kike > JBJ

 

Betts > Renfroe

 

The OF was not the major reason for our poor BAbip. Renfroe was a significant issue, but not enough to make the OF that much worse, on defense, than 2018.

 

Our 1B D sucked.

Our catching sucked (mostly in areas not captured by stats)

Our 2B was okay.

Our SS has severely limited range.

Our 3Bman alternated between horrific to pretty good for long stretches.

 

There is no easy fix, this winter. (We could trade Bogey, Vaz and/or Renfroe, but then we have a new hole to fill.)

 

Next winter offers more hope for improvement.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm much more into WAR than I am into defense as an isolated value.

 

The 2021 JBJ is an example of a player whose defensive contributions are destroyed by offensive ineptitude to the point that you sit them on the bench for the playoffs.

 

I can appreciate that. How do you feel about DWAR? According to bb-ref, Verdugo -0.2 and Renfroe -0.5 were below average, but Kike 2.1 was the second-highest rated outfielder in the bigs to Michael Taylor 2.3. Kike also played 55 games in the infield, so I'm not sure how that affected his total.

 

In comparison, these former Sox were at least slightly above average: JBJ 1.3, Beni 0.3 and Mookie 0.2 (including seven games at 2nd base).

[jad]

On defense in 2021:

 

Verdugo> Beni

 

Kike > JBJ

 

Betts > Renfroe

 

The OF was not the major reason for our poor BAbip. Renfroe was a significant issue, but not enough to make the OF that much worse, on defense, than 2018.

 

Our 1B D sucked.

Our catching sucked (mostly in areas not captured by stats)

Our 2B was okay.

Our SS has severely limited range.

Our 3Bman alternated between horrific to pretty good for long stretches.

 

There is no easy fix, this winter. (We could trade Bogey, Vaz and/or Renfroe, but then we have a new hole to fill.)

 

Next winter offers more hope for improvement.

 

Exactly: to improve a team, one must ADD productive players; it is not enough simply to get RID of productive players, despite what some seem to think.

[moonslav59]

I can appreciate that. How do you feel about DWAR? According to bb-ref, Verdugo -0.2 and Renfroe -0.5 were below average, but Kike 2.1 was the second-highest rated outfielder in the bigs to Michael Taylor 2.3. Kike also played 55 games in the infield, so I'm not sure how that affected his total.

 

In comparison, these former Sox were at least slightly above average: JBJ 1.3, Beni 0.3 and Mookie 0.2 (including seven games at 2nd base).

 

b & fWAR are cumulative numbers. The more you play (and do well) they higher the number grows.

 

Fangraphs:

DRS

14 Kike (716 innings) 12.1 UZR/150

12 JBJ (915) 16.9 UZR/150

7 Beni (1116) 5.5

4 Betts (964) 5.6

2 Verdugo (1188) -5.4

1 Cordero (250) -0.2

-1 Renfroe (1213)-3.1

-4 Duran (223) -24.1 (worst in MLB with 200+ innings in OF)

-5 Schwarber (724) -6.4

 

It's fair to say, Kike's CF WAR would have been much higher, had he played 155 games there.

 

[moonslav59]

Exactly: to improve a team, one must ADD productive players; it is not enough simply to get RID of productive players, despite what some seem to think.

 

I do think we could trade Vaz and or Renfroe and improve our BAbip number without creating major holes to fill.

 

Admittedly, it's not easy to find capable catchers, but with the $7M saved on Vaz's contract and the estimated value of Renfroe's arb saved, we can probably find better defensive players without seriously hurting our offense.

 

Trading Bogey is much more problematic, for various reasons.

 

Moving Devers to 1B creates too much of a bottleneck, and it seems like he should get at least one more year to show he can be a steady defender at 3B.

 

An Arroyo-Iggy 2B should be fine.

[Nick]

On defense in 2021:

 

Verdugo> Beni

 

Kike > JBJ

 

Betts > Renfroe

 

The OF was not the major reason for our poor BAbip. Renfroe was a significant issue, but not enough to make the OF that much worse, on defense, than 2018.

 

Our 1B D sucked.

Our catching sucked (mostly in areas not captured by stats)

Our 2B was okay.

Our SS has severely limited range.

Our 3Bman alternated between horrific to pretty good for long stretches.

 

There is no easy fix, this winter. (We could trade Bogey, Vaz and/or Renfroe, but then we have a new hole to fill.)

 

Next winter offers more hope for improvement.

 

Why are you afraid to trade Xander, get rid of his $20M, pony up another $10M and get a shortstop that can hit and field?

 

I would trade Renfroe while his trade value is at it's highest and rid of projected $7M salary.

 

I would add Schwarber and play him in LF knowing JD will be gone soon.

 

You can accomplish that by having Pivetta, Whitlock and Houck be #3-#5 starters.

 

Then just worry about bullpen.

[moonslav59]

Why are you afraid to trade Xander, get rid of his $20M, pony up another $10M and get a shortstop that can hit and field?

 

I would trade Renfroe while his trade value is at it's highest and rid of projected $7M salary.

 

I would add Schwarber and play him in LF knowing JD will be gone soon.

 

You can accomplish that by having Pivetta, Whitlock and Houck be #3-#5 starters.

 

Then just worry about bullpen.

 

Where did I hint being afraid of trading Bogey?