A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[mvp 78]

His final start of the regular season, he had a 27 k/9. Does that mean it was a good start? It ignores his 3.00 WHIP. He's striking out guys, but it's ugly. It's the definition of smoke and mirrors.

[mvp 78]

Yes, correct. Still 37% is very good, even against weak hitting teams. It's certainly not something to point out as a weakness, which you did not, but it seems like he was regaining his K ability as the season went on.

 

His last 3 starts: 6 innings, 37%K rate, 3.00 WHIP. Anything pop out to you?

[moonslav59]

What does this have to do with me saying "smoke and mirrors"? Obviously I'm saying that his results were clearly going to come back to earth.

 

In his last 3 outings, he went a combined 6 innings. Do you think that's good?

 

I've watched all of his starts and there's been a white knuckle feel to a lot of them, especially lately. He might get a few k's, but it's ugly. It's not vintage Sale.

 

No, I think he looked worse near the end and into the playoffs than he did when he first came up.

 

I'm not arguing he was his old self.

 

My point is I did not expect him to be even this good.

 

It takes time.

 

I expect by next May or June we'll know a lot more, and I am confident he can become very close to the same dominant pitcher he was before TJS. He may have to rely on different strengths than he had before, but Sale is a gamer.

 

I think he'll find whatever he needs to be great, again.

[moonslav59]

His last 3 starts: 6 innings, 37%K rate, 3.00 WHIP. Anything pop out to you?

 

He sucked.

 

Look, I'm not high on K rates and never was.

 

I just responded to your comment about K/9 and K%.

 

If you used that as guide, then it makes him look better.

 

He has a long way to go, and I even pointed out several times, how strange it seemed that as his stats and performances got worse, his K Rate got better.

 

I never ignored the sucking aspect of his late season.

[mvp 78]

No, I think he looked worse near the end and into the playoffs than he did when he first came up.

 

I'm not arguing he was his old self.

 

My point is I did not expect him to be even this good.

 

It takes time.

 

I expect by next May or June we'll know a lot more, and I am confident he can become very close to the same dominant pitcher he was before TJS. He may have to rely on different strengths than he had before, but Sale is a gamer.

 

I think he'll find whatever he needs to be great, again.

 

I'm not worried about next year right now. I'm sure he'll work his ass off this offseason to fix whatever's going wrong. I know he's really a workout warrior and he's not just going to cash a paycheck. He may have to reinvent himself at some point though.

 

I was looking through his statcast and it shows him throwing a sinker more often when he was younger. Was it really a sinker or was he just getting more movement on his 4 seamer then? Is it a pitch he needs to bring back?

Edited October 18, 2021 by mvp 78

[moonslav59]

His final start of the regular season, he had a 27 k/9. Does that mean it was a good start? It ignores his 3.00 WHIP. He's striking out guys, but it's ugly. It's the definition of smoke and mirrors.

 

I should be asking you this. You were the one who brought up the K rate when you said his "whiff rate is way down."

[mvp 78]

I should be asking you this. You were the one who brought up the K rate when you said his "whiff rate is way down."

 

Whiff % and k rate are two completely different things. You can get a whiff on a 3-0 count. You brought up K rate.

[moonslav59]

Sox HR Leaders Regular Season + Playoffs

 

41 Devers

31 Renfroe

30 JD

25 Kike

25 Bobby Dee

25 Bogey

14 Verdugo

9 Schwarber

7 Vaz

6 Arroyo

5 Santana

 

XBHs

79 Devers

76 JD

67 Kike

66 Renfroe

61 Bogey

52 Dalbec

51 Verdugo

 

 

Edited October 18, 2021 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

Love the argument between mvp 78 and moonslav because they both agree Sale is fundamentally a good pitcher with a great work ethic--with which I too agree.

 

The disagreement is over what is going on now, which is absolutely worth an argument, even a lengthy one, because I think we are going to see him again this postseason, very possibly even as a starter.

 

If that does happen, I like jacksonianmarch's observation that Sale needs to focus on command rather than velocity. Better still would be a return of his changeup, but that seems unlikely. I will add that my version of good command is the ability to work the ball low in the strike zone or just below it. Other teams have pitchers who can do that, but not the Sox.

 

"A Realistic View of 2021" is that Sale is back and healthy but not yet Sale.

Edited October 19, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[moonslav59]

Love the argument between mvp 78 and moonslav because they both agree Sale is fundamentally a good pitcher with a great work ethic--with which I too agree.

 

The disagreement is over what is going on now, which is absolutely worth an argument, even a lengthy one, because I think we are going to see him again this postseason, very possibly even as a starter.

 

If that does happen, I like jacksonianmarch's observation that Sale needs to focus on command rather than velocity. Better still would be a return of his changeup, but that seems unlikely. I will add that my version of good command is the ability to work the ball low in the strike zone or just below it. Other teams have pitchers who can do that, but not the Sox.

 

"A Realistic View of 2021" is that Sale is back and healthy but not yet Sale.

 

There is no disagreement over what is going on, now.

 

We both know he is sucking, badly.

 

I was just bringing up the odd fact that he seems to be K'ing more people, the worse he gets.

 

I expect he recovers, next season, but maybe not fully in April.

[mvp 78]

Love the argument between mvp 78 and moonslav because they both agree Sale is fundamentally a good pitcher with a great work ethic--with which I too agree.

 

The disagreement is over what is going on now, which is absolutely worth an argument, even a lengthy one, because I think we are going to see him again this postseason, very possibly even as a starter.

 

If that does happen, I like jacksonianmarch's observation that Sale needs to focus on command rather than velocity. Better still would be a return of his changeup, but that seems unlikely. I will add that my version of good command is the ability to work the ball low in the strike zone or just below it. Other teams have pitchers who can do that, but not the Sox.

 

"A Realistic View of 2021" is that Sale is back and healthy but not yet Sale.

 

He is the type of guy who could just figure it out and go on a run, but he's not setting up the Sox to succeed right now. Dodgers offense is RH heavy, so I'm not sure he's a good play against them.

[mvp 78]

There is no disagreement over what is going on, now.

 

We both know he is sucking, badly.

 

I was just bringing up the odd fact that he seems to be K'ing more people, the worse he gets.

 

I expect he recovers, next season, but maybe not fully in April.

 

I usually don't make a big generalization on how the season is going until Memorial Day. Think of all the times Ortiz started off slow and then mashed.

[moonslav59]

He is the type of guy who could just figure it out and go on a run, but he's not setting up the Sox to succeed right now. Dodgers offense is RH heavy, so I'm not sure he's a good play against them.

 

I'm not even close to expecting anything good from Sale, this season.

[Larry Cook]

When a pitcher has only two pitches working as sale does, he can set up hitters with one of the pitches and then punch them out with the other pitch.

 

This makes a pitcher viable for one time through a line up!

 

I think that is what we see with sale at this time!

[jacksonianmarch]

When a pitcher has only two pitches working as sale does, he can set up hitters with one of the pitches and then punch them out with the other pitch.

 

This makes a pitcher viable for one time through a line up!

 

I think that is what we see with sale at this time!

 

You aren't wrong. The issue I have with Sale is he cannot seem to locate the fastball, so that leaves you with one pitch for strikes. Until he finds his fastball command, he is a liability

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

I haven't forgotten just how good Chris Sale was in his first month back. So I am confident that at some point he will figure it out. Now I have no idea what is going on but he surely can't be trusted tonight.

[mvp 78]

I haven't forgotten just how good Chris Sale was in his first month back. So I am confident that at some point he will figure it out. Now I have no idea what is going on but he surely can't be trusted tonight.

 

Houck may be put in fairly early.

[moonslav59]

Houck may be put in fairly early.

 

We may need him to go 6 innings.

[Yaz Fan Since 67]

I get the comment in the other thread about using Houck last night when they had a chance to win that game. But I am very happy he is available tonight, agree Sale gets the hook quickly if necessary. Sox need to start out fast on offense. Again. When Bogey hit the bomb and the Stros were forced to their bullpen early, again, I really liked our chances last night.

[notin]

We may need him to go 6 innings.

 

I doubt it. The Sox bullpen didn't put in anywhere near the innings the Astros bullpen did. If anyone needs to go 6 tonight, it's Framber Valdez...

[moonslav59]

I doubt it. The Sox bullpen didn't put in anywhere near the innings the Astros bullpen did. If anyone needs to go 6 tonight, it's Framber Valdez...

 

I'm not sure how much I trust anyone but Houck. (Whitlock went 2, so can't count on him for much, if anything.)

[notin]

I'm not sure how much I trust anyone but Houck. (Whitlock went 2, so can't count on him for much, if anything.)

 

Not even Brasier?

[Bellhorn04]

Not even Brasier?

 

"Trust" is a strange word when applied to baseball pitchers.

 

Houck gave up a pretty big 2 run jack in this series. I don't "trust" him either!

[moonslav59]

Not even Brasier?

 

A lil. Same with Robles and Taylor- just a lil.

[moonslav59]

What a great season this has been for Red Sox Nation!

 

We still have a great shot at winning it all! It's October 20th!

 

Let's be positive about this team. What they have done and what they can still do!

[mvp 78]

I trust this bullpen more than I trust my kids to brush their teeth.

[notin]

I trust this bullpen more than I trust my kids to brush their teeth.

 

Probably why we don't have your kids head out to the mound and brush their teeth during close games...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I trust this bullpen more than I trust my kids to brush their teeth.

 

Except I don't see relievers throwing tantrums in the bullpen when Cora beckons them from the mound. Instead, they just dutifully walk the plank-- I mean, rubber.

[jad]

It's not a matter of trust. It's a matter of them playing better than their opponents.

 

As for your kids brushing their teeth, screw it. My h.s. girlfriend's Dad once scoffed at us and proudly exclaimed he'd never been to a dentist in his life. (His wife then pointed out that he had had false teeth since my g.f. was born.)

[moonslav59]

It's not a matter of trust. It's a matter of them playing better than their opponents.

 

As for your kids brushing their teeth, screw it. My h.s. girlfriend's Dad once scoffed at us and proudly exclaimed he'd never been to a dentist in his life. (His wife then pointed out that he had had false teeth since my g.f. was born.)

 

Did he get the false teeth at a dollar store?