A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[jacksonianmarch]

Sale is not reliable at this point. I was able to watch him pitch due to a slow period at work and, while his velo was there, his command of the velo was awful. Sale seems to have the same issue he had pre TJS. When he humps it up 95+, he loses command in its entirety. When he doesnt locate the heater to the corners he gets hammered. If he has to come in with the slider, he gets hammered. I also didnt see anything resembling a good change. He needs to seriously rework his arsenal in the offseason and start focusing on command and not power

[jad]

Sale is not reliable at this point. I was able to watch him pitch due to a slow period at work and, while his velo was there, his command of the velo was awful. Sale seems to have the same issue he had pre TJS. When he humps it up 95+, he loses command in its entirety. When he doesnt locate the heater to the corners he gets hammered. If he has to come in with the slider, he gets hammered. I also didnt see anything resembling a good change. He needs to seriously rework his arsenal in the offseason and start focusing on command and not power

 

Since coming back from TJS, he's 5-1 with an 3.6 ERA, only slightly higher than his career average. I realize that's not good enough for a non-playoff team like NYY, but for the RS, I'll take it.

[Nick]

Sale is not reliable at this point. I was able to watch him pitch due to a slow period at work and, while his velo was there, his command of the velo was awful. Sale seems to have the same issue he had pre TJS. When he humps it up 95+, he loses command in its entirety. When he doesnt locate the heater to the corners he gets hammered. If he has to come in with the slider, he gets hammered. I also didnt see anything resembling a good change. He needs to seriously rework his arsenal in the offseason and start focusing on command and not power

 

I think you're spot on....he's just not the same pitcher right now. He needs spring training. Not sure he'll ever be the pitcher he was......

 

So this is where Rays approach would have been better for Sox. Sale did his job when he came over from White Sox. We made the mistake of extending him early in his contract year.

 

His trade was a success. Extension has been costly for the Sox.

 

Never, never fall in love with a player.

[moonslav59]

The Sale extension is not over.

 

Many pitchers come back from TJS and do just as well as before.

 

We may just fall in love with him, again.

[Larry Cook]

The Sale extension is not over.

 

Many pitchers come back from TJS and do just as well as before.

 

We may just fall in love with him, again.

 

Until sale’s change up is back and sharp, teams are going to sit on his four seam fastball.

 

Most players are usually better in year two then year one in the return from Tommy John.

[moonslav59]

Until sale’s change up is back and sharp, teams are going to sit on his four seam fastball.

 

Most players are usually better in year two then year one in the return from Tommy John.

 

Yes, so let's see next year.

[Nick]

Yes, so let's see next year.

 

Chris Freakin' Sale. extension years...

 

Chris Freakin' Sale. the trade...

[moonslav59]

Freakin' Chris Sale. extension years...

 

Chris Freakin' Sale. the trade...

 

I fixed that for you...

[Maxbialystock]

Sale is not reliable at this point. I was able to watch him pitch due to a slow period at work and, while his velo was there, his command of the velo was awful. Sale seems to have the same issue he had pre TJS. When he humps it up 95+, he loses command in its entirety. When he doesnt locate the heater to the corners he gets hammered. If he has to come in with the slider, he gets hammered. I also didnt see anything resembling a good change. He needs to seriously rework his arsenal in the offseason and start focusing on command and not power

 

I agree with Nick--this is a really good analysis of Sale, especially the part at the end about focusing on command over power. Greg Maddux lasted forever because of his command, but he started out as a strikeout ace. He adjusted. Sale has simply not done that, which astounds me because I think of him as the complete professional.

 

What's happened to Chris Sale is one more example of just how difficult it is to pitch well at the MLB level. Ted Williams and his "hit a round ball with a round bat squarely" left out the fact that not even great hitters need to do that more often than 1 in 3 times. Pitchers can be less precise than round bat meeting round ball squarely, but they do need to be precise on location, throw really hard, and serve up at least three different devilish spins.

[moonslav59]

I agree with Nick--this is a really good analysis of Sale, especially the part at the end about focusing on command over power. Greg Maddux lasted forever because of his command, but he started out as a strikeout ace. He adjusted. Sale has simply not done that, which astounds me because I think of him as the complete professional.

 

What's happened to Chris Sale is one more example of just how difficult it is to pitch well at the MLB level. Ted Williams and his "hit a round ball with a round bat squarely" left out the fact that not even great hitters need to do that more often than 1 in 3 times. Pitchers can be less precise than round bat meeting round ball squarely, but they do need to be precise on location, throw really hard, and serve up at least three different devilish spins.

 

It astounds you that after TJS he has not adjusted quickly enough?

 

Hardly anyone comes back after TJS and adjusts quickly enough to be as good as ever after just a year and a half.

 

I see what Sale has done since his return, and I'm encouraged. His velo is close to where it was before 2018.

 

I'm thinking by next April or May, we can have this discussion without thinking the TJS is affecting who the new or old Sale will be.

 

(BTW, I think Sale was already somewhat like Maddux before his injury. He had "command" and was beyond being a thrower and K man only.)

Edited October 17, 2021 by moonslav59

[Maxbialystock]

I sure hope you are right, but what bothers me is that Sale actually did come back from TJS superbly. His August ERA was 2.35 and September only a little worse at 3.24.

 

October, on the other hand, has been awful. No command, no changeup, no value to the Sox. I do not have exact numbers on his velocity, but my suspicion is that Sale, who did not throw that hard in August, yearned to get his velocity back and in doing so lost both his command and his changeup.

 

So you could be right about next spring. But I think jacksonianmarch is right about this year.

[moonslav59]

I sure hope you are right, but what bothers me is that Sale actually did come back from TJS superbly. His August ERA was 2.35 and September only a little worse at 3.24.

 

October, on the other hand, has been awful. No command, no changeup, no value to the Sox. I do not have exact numbers on his velocity, but my suspicion is that Sale, who did not throw that hard in August, yearned to get his velocity back and in doing so lost both his command and his changeup.

 

So you could be right about next spring. But I think jacksonianmarch is right about this year.

 

jacko has said it is too early to know about Sale.

 

Sale faced easy opponents early, and was limited in pitches.

 

I wouldn't be so worried about a few bad starts, recently. He's not supposed to be at 100%, now.

 

It might take time to adjust to his new arm.

 

Also, he took 2 games to then reach his highest velo, this year. It dropped off after game 4:

 

https://www.fangraphs.com/players/chris-sale/10603/graphs?pitchgraphs=true&statArr=&legend=1&split=base&time=daily&start=2021&end=2021&rtype=mult&gt1=15&dStatArray=FA&ymin=&ymax=

Edited October 17, 2021 by moonslav59

[moonslav59]

Okay, let's take a closer look at this myth that most of our batters had career or near career seasons. I'm going to break it down into 3 groups of players:

 

1) Top 8 players by PAs (over 275- actually also over 450)

OPS Player PAs

.890 Devers 664 (.847 career, .884 last 2 yrs, .916 in 2019)

.867 JD Martinez 634 (.881 career, .870 last 2 yrs, 2 seasons over 1.000 in ’17 & ’18)

.863 Bogaerts 603 (.812 career, .921 last 2, 3 seasons higher last 3 seasons)

.777 Verdugo 604 (.791 career, .827 last 2, 2 seasons higher)

.786 Kike 585 (.748 career, .707 last 2, 2 seasons higher ’18 & ’15)

.816 Renfroe 572 (.786 career, .749 last 2, was at .805 in ’18)

.659 Vazquez 498 (.692 career, .798 last 2, 3 seasons higher)

.792 Dalbec 453 (.819 career, .959 in 2020)

 

4 of the 8 did better than their career OPS.

3 of 8 did better than their 2019-2020 combined OPS.

1 of 8 had a career high OPS. (5 had 2 or more other better seasons)

 

2) 7 Players with 100-275 PAs

.567 Marwin 271 (.717 career, .698 last 2, every season better ‘14>’20)

.769 Arroyo 181 (.690 career, .710 last 2, no years better)

.737 Plawecki 173 (.667 career, .707 last 2, 2 seasons better ‘20 & ’17)

.957 Schwarber 168 (.836 career, .825 last 2, no seasons better)

.497 Cordero 136 (.663 career, ,773 last 2, all 4 seasons better)

.597 Santana 127 (.709 career, .821 last 2, 5 seasons better)

.578 Chavis 112 (.714 career, .728 last 2, ,857 in PIT after trade)

 

3 of 7 had an OPS higher than their career OPS.

3 of 7 did better than 2019-2020 combined OPS.

2 of 7 had career highs (Schwarber & Arroyo with aout 350 PAs combined- way less than the rest.) Marwin, Cordero & Santana were god awful and had more PAs than Schwarber, Iggy & Shaw combined.

 

3) 3 Players with 40-75 PAs

.643 Arauz 75 (.644 career, .644 last year, 1 better)

.915 Iggy 64 (.696 career, .775 last 2, .956 in 2020 was better)

.843 Shaw 48 (.762 career, .619 last 2, 1 season better & .808 ‘15>’18)

 

2 of 3 beat career OPS.

2 of 3 beat '19-'20 combined

0 of 3 had career best season in 2021.

 

Okay, so out of the major players, Kike and Renfroe had "career years. Schwarber and Arroyo did, too, but many players with more PAs than them did not even come close.

 

Only 6 out of the top 15 PA players beat their 2019-2020 combined OPS. That's hardly out of the ordinary. When you look at the ages of many of those 15 players, you'd expect an improvement, not a decline.

 

Myth busted.

 

I'll do pitching, soon. Trust me, it ain't any better.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[mvp 78]

I sure hope you are right, but what bothers me is that Sale actually did come back from TJS superbly. His August ERA was 2.35 and September only a little worse at 3.24.

 

October, on the other hand, has been awful. No command, no changeup, no value to the Sox. I do not have exact numbers on his velocity, but my suspicion is that Sale, who did not throw that hard in August, yearned to get his velocity back and in doing so lost both his command and his changeup.

 

So you could be right about next spring. But I think jacksonianmarch is right about this year.

 

August opponents: BAL, TEX, MIN

September opponents: TBR, TBR, BAL, NYM, BAL, WSH

 

Of those 9 games, only two were against decent teams. His two starts against the Rays: 6IP/6H/2BB/3K/2R and 3.2IP/10H/1BB/6K/5R.

 

His regular season was smoke and mirrors IMO.

[moonslav59]

August opponents: BAL, TEX, MIN

September opponents: TBR, TBR, BAL, NYM, BAL, WSH

 

Of those 9 games, only two were against decent teams. His two starts against the Rays: 6IP/6H/2BB/3K/2R and 3.2IP/10H/1BB/6K/5R.

 

His regular season was smoke and mirrors IMO.

 

Maybe yes- maybe no.

 

It's hard to get definitive over such a small sample size.

 

We'll know more by next May or June.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe yes- maybe no.

 

It's hard to get definitive over such a small sample size.

 

Also, even crappy MLB teams like BAL and TEX are still MLB teams, and capable of scoring runs if you pitch badly.

[moonslav59]

Also, even crappy MLB teams like BAL and TEX are still MLB teams, and capable of scoring runs if you pitch badly.

 

The O's offense was doing pretty well in the last 2 months.

[Maxbialystock]

"A Realistic View at 2021" might need some tinkering as a thread title. How about, "An Attempt at a Realistic View of 2021?"

 

Forget the topsy-turvy season the Sox have had. I've been watching the 88 wins Braves take the first two games from the 106 wins Dodgers, who had to win the wild card game before whipping the 107 win Giants by taking game 5 at Candlestick Park.

[moonslav59]

"A Realistic View at 2021" might need some tinkering as a thread title. How about, "An Attempt at a Realistic View of 2021?"

 

Forget the topsy-turvy season the Sox have had. I've been watching the 88 wins Braves take the first two games from the 106 wins Dodgers, who had to win the wild card game before whipping the 107 win Giants by taking game 5 at Candlestick Park.

 

Nobody believed me when I said every AL team had major flaws.

 

I should have said every MLB team had them.

[mvp 78]

Maybe yes- maybe no.

 

It's hard to get definitive over such a small sample size.

 

We'll know more by next May or June.

 

With his changeup: 3K/1BB/2HR. Whiff% is way down.

 

His slider now has -1.9 vertical movement vs an average slider it used to be +3 at least. Whiff % is way down.

 

His fastball still has decent life, it's just he doesn't have the offspeed stuff to compliment it.

[moonslav59]

With his changeup: 3K/1BB/2HR. Whiff% is way down.

 

His slider now has -1.9 vertical movement vs an average slider it used to be +3 at least. Whiff % is way down.

 

His fastball still has decent life, it's just he doesn't have the offspeed stuff to compliment it.

 

No doubt, but did you expect him to be back to 100% game 1? Game 9?

 

BTW, he has 4 Ks in 3.2 playoff innings and had 21 in his last 12.2 IP of 2021. If K rate is so telling, shouldn't that be a sign he's is regaining form? (To me, K rate is over rated.)

 

Slae has 25 K's in his last 16.1 IP. That's a 13.8 K/9 rate.

[mvp 78]

No doubt, but did you expect him to be back to 100% game 1? Game 9?

 

BTW, he has 4 Ks in 3.2 playoff innings and had 21 in his last 12.2 IP of 2021. If K rate is so telling, shouldn't that be a sign he's is regaining form? (To me, K rate is over rated.)

 

Slae has 25 K's in his last 16.1 IP. That's a 13.8 K/9 rate.

 

His K% is down, which is a better number than k/9. K% is based on total batters faced. In the postseason, he has a 17.4% k rate. Don't think I'm going to rely on his K% against WSH/BAL/NYM at all. Even adding those teams in, 25 K's over 80 batters is still a lower K% than the regular season of 2017, 2018 and 2019.

[moonslav59]

His K% is down, which is a better number than k/9. K% is based on total batters faced. In the postseason, he has a 17.4% k rate. Don't think I'm going to rely on his K% against WSH/BAL/NYM at all. Even adding those teams in, 25 K's over 80 batters is still a lower K% than the regular season of 2017, 2018 and 2019.

 

Good point, but 31.3% K% is higher than his career and a very reasonable number for anyone's first games back after TJS.

 

Did you expect a 34%+ rate in his first 10 games back?

[moonslav59]

His K% is down, which is a better number than k/9. K% is based on total batters faced. In the postseason, he has a 17.4% k rate. Don't think I'm going to rely on his K% against WSH/BAL/NYM at all. Even adding those teams in, 25 K's over 80 batters is still a lower K% than the regular season of 2017, 2018 and 2019.

 

BTW, I counted 78 batters, so his K rate was 32%, which is fine to me, after missing more than a year.

 

True, playing WSH/BAL/NYM helped, but every pitcher's stats are padded by weaker opps.

 

He had 21 Ks in 54 PAs in those last 3 reg season games. That's a 39%!

[Bellhorn04]

Nobody believed me when I said every AL team had major flaws.

 

I should have said every MLB team had them.

 

The Dodgers had a run differential of +269. They don't really have major flaws. But they can still be beaten on any given day.

[mvp 78]

Good point, but 31.3% K% is higher than his career and a very reasonable number for anyone's first games back after TJS.

 

Did you expect a 34%+ rate in his first 10 games back?

 

No, I expected him not to be an ace off the bat. That doesn't contradict me saying that his regular season #'s were smoke and mirrors. His last 3 outings have been very concerning though.

[mvp 78]

BTW, I counted 78 batters, so his K rate was 32%, which is fine to me, after missing more than a year.

 

True, playing WSH/BAL/NYM helped, but every pitcher's stats are padded by weaker opps.

 

He had 21 Ks in 54 PAs in those last 3 reg season games. That's a 39%!

 

You counted wrong. 23 TBF in the playoffs, 57 TBF in last 3 regular season starts. His k% was 36.8%.

[moonslav59]

No, I expected him not to be an ace off the bat. That doesn't contradict me saying that his regular season #'s were smoke and mirrors. His last 3 outings have been very concerning though.

 

So you expected better than a 31% K%? (Better than his career number?)

[mvp 78]

So you expected better than a 31% K%? (Better than his career number?)

 

What does this have to do with me saying "smoke and mirrors"? Obviously I'm saying that his results were clearly going to come back to earth.

 

In his last 3 outings, he went a combined 6 innings. Do you think that's good?

 

I've watched all of his starts and there's been a white knuckle feel to a lot of them, especially lately. He might get a few k's, but it's ugly. It's not vintage Sale.

[moonslav59]

You counted wrong. 23 TBF in the playoffs, 57 TBF in last 3 regular season starts. His k% was 36.8%.

 

Yes, correct. Still 37% is very good, even against weak hitting teams. It's certainly not something to point out as a weakness, which you did not, but it seems like he was regaining his K ability as the season went on.