A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[dgalehouse]

Target. I love language and bon mots and will try almost anything. I did get pretty excited last night because I genuinely thought Robles, Houck, and Hernandez folded under the pressure of a big and close game. Maybe they'd never been in one before. Eovaldi had--he was great in the 2018 postseason--so I decided, no doubt unfairly, to blamed that bad start on Vazquez.

Blaming Vasquez is always the default option.

[moonslav59]

Blaming someone seems to be the default action by just about everyone, these days.

 

Baseball is a game where players fail much more often than they succeed. A player can be totally fooled by a pitch and get a bloop or broken bat hit, and another player can crank a ball that would be a homer anywhere but Fenway, and it's an out and the guy is a bum.

 

I know I play the blame game, too. Maybe, we just need to realize nobody is perfect, and we should stop expecting perfection.

 

We have some damn good players that have some areas where they are not so good at. Very few players are excellent in a every area, and even those that are, sometimes make mistakes or go through tough stretches.

 

I'm not sure where I'm going with this, so I'll just stop while I'm behind.

 

[Larry Cook]

Blaming someone seems to be the default action by just about everyone, these days.

 

Baseball is a game where players fail much more often than they succeed. A player can be totally fooled by a pitch and get a bloop or broken bat hit, and another player can crank a ball that would be a homer anywhere but Fenway, and it's an out and the guy is a bum.

 

I know I play the blame game, too. Maybe, we just need to realize nobody is perfect, and we should stop expecting perfection.

 

We have some damn good players that have some areas where they are not so good at. Very few players are excellent in a every area, and even those that are, sometimes make mistakes or go through tough stretches.

 

I'm not sure where I'm going with this, so I'll just stop while I'm behind.

 

 

The secret formula is good pitching, solid defense and timely hitting.

 

As current constitutes our roster is;

 

Pitching 6 out of 10.

Defense 4 out of 10.

Hitting 8.5 out of 10.

 

If all weight evenly, you have to ask yourself…..

 

Is a 6.13 good enough to make the playoffs?

[Bellhorn04]

The secret formula is good pitching, solid defense and timely hitting.

 

As current constitutes our roster is;

 

Pitching 6 out of 10.

Defense 4 out of 10.

Hitting 8.5 out of 10.

 

If all weight evenly, you have to ask yourself…..

 

Is a 6.13 good enough to make the playoffs?

 

The bottom line is they have 88 wins with 7 games left. They're on target for 92 wins.

 

The real question is, is 92-93 wins good enough?

 

We know it's going to be close, at least.

[moonslav59]

The secret formula is good pitching, solid defense and timely hitting.

 

As current constitutes our roster is;

 

Pitching 6 out of 10.

Defense 4 out of 10.

Hitting 8.5 out of 10.

 

If all weight evenly, you have to ask yourself…..

 

Is a 6.13 good enough to make the playoffs?

 

When the contenders are at 6.12 of lower, yes.

 

BTW, I'd put our pitching at 9.5, but our defense at 1.5 or lower.

[MADSTORK]

Blaming someone seems to be the default action by just about everyone, these days.

 

Baseball is a game where players fail much more often than they succeed. A player can be totally fooled by a pitch and get a bloop or broken bat hit, and another player can crank a ball that would be a homer anywhere but Fenway, and it's an out and the guy is a bum.

 

I know I play the blame game, too. Maybe, we just need to realize nobody is perfect, and we should stop expecting perfection.

 

We have some damn good players that have some areas where they are not so good at. Very few players are excellent in a every area, and even those that are, sometimes make mistakes or go through tough stretches.

 

I'm not sure where I'm going with this, so I'll just stop while I'm behind.

 

 

Its not a blame game, its called being passionate about your Team.

What I will say is, when a team with a projected payroll of 200 plus million cannot compete year in and year out with Teams under a 100 million dollar payroll there is a problem.

[moonslav59]

Its not a blame game, its called being passionate about your Team.

What I will say is, when a team with a projected payroll of 200 plus million cannot compete year in and year out with Teams under a 100 million dollar payroll there is a problem.

 

I never denied or even implied we had no problems.

 

I, for one, have a bigger issue with fans like you than our bright GM.

[Larry Cook]

When the contenders are at 6.12 of lower, yes.

 

BTW, I'd put our pitching at 9.5, but our defense at 1.5 or lower.

 

Wow! 9.5 is very high.

 

With the defense, I considered all the outfield assists we have accumulated this year, which I consider a part of playing defense.

[moonslav59]

Wow! 9.5 is very high.

 

With the defense, I considered all the outfield assists we have accumulated this year, which I consider a part of playing defense.

 

Well, we are top3 out of 30, so that comes to 9.0, at worst.

 

Our defense sucks. we really should be o.o or 0,5.

[moonslav59]

We're still up one on the Jays and now down one on the Yanks.

 

The Yanks and Jays play 3, so somebody has to lose 2-3 games.

 

If we can sweep the O's, we are guaranteed to be up on someone.

 

Assume a sweep of the O's:

Yanks sweep, we are up 4 on the Jays and still down 1 to NY.

Yanks win 2, we are up 3 on the Jays and tied with the Yanks

Yanks win 1, we are up 2 on the Jays and one on the Yanks.

Yanks win 0, we are up 1 on the Jays and 2 on the Yanks.

 

If we just win 2 of 3 vs the O's...

Yanks sweep, we are up 3 on the Jays and down 2 on the Yanks.

Yanks win 2, we are up 2 on the Jays and down 1 with the Yanks

Yanks win 1, we are up 1 on the Jays and tied with the Yanks.

Yanks win 0, we are tied the Jays and up 1 on the Yanks.

The worst we can be is up 1 in the WC2 race.

 

God forbid, we win just 1 out of 3 vs the O's...

Yanks sweep, we are up 2 on the Jays and down 3 on the Yanks.

Yanks win 2, we are up 1 on the Jays and down 2 with the Yanks

Yanks win 1, we are tied with the Jays and down 1 to the Yanks.

Yanks win 0, we are down 1 to the Jays and tied with the Yanks.

The worst we can be is tied for the last slot, even if we lose 2 out of 3 to the O's.

 

(This is not counting the Ms or A's, who play each other, next.)

 

[notin]

Its not a blame game, its called being passionate about your Team.

What I will say is, when a team with a projected payroll of 200 plus million cannot compete year in and year out with Teams under a 100 million dollar payroll there is a problem.

 

But the problem isn’t what you think….

[Bellhorn04]

Its not a blame game, its called being passionate about your Team.

What I will say is, when a team with a projected payroll of 200 plus million cannot compete year in and year out with Teams under a 100 million dollar payroll there is a problem.

 

Yeah, it's a terrible problem.

 

But I'll try to be consoled by the fact that the Red Sox have 4 championships this century and the Rays have zero.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, it's a terrible problem.

 

But I'll try to be consoled by the fact that the Red Sox have 4 championships this century and the Rays have zero.

 

The Rays are a damn good team, but I might still put my money on the Sox in a bet on who wins the next ring. Rays or Sox.

[Bellhorn04]

The Rays are a damn good team, but I might still put my money on the Sox in a bet on who wins the next ring. Rays or Sox.

 

I respect the heck out of what the Rays are doing.

 

But I'll take our 21st century over theirs...and it ain't close.

[moonslav59]

I respect the heck out of what the Rays are doing.

 

But I'll take our 21st century over theirs...and it ain't close.

 

They should be very very good for the next few years, too.

 

My point was not made lightly. They just might win it all, this year.

 

They are the only team in the ALE with a winning record vs every team in the division:

 

18-1 BAL

11-8 TOR

11-8 BOS

9-7 NYY (3 to play)

 

The Sox are the only other team to have winning records vs 3 ALE teams.

 

12-4 BAL

10-9 NYY

10-9 TOR

8-11 TBR

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Sox are the only other team to have winning records vs 3 ALE teams.

 

12-4 BAL

10-9 NYY

10-9 TOR

8-11 TBR

 

The thing is, Boston was such a better club in most of those victories when Barnes was an All-Star closer and Whitlock was the best set-up man in the league.

[moonslav59]

The thing is, Boston was such a better club in most of those victories when Barnes was an All-Star closer and Whitlock was the best set-up man in the league.

 

True, but the Yanks were pretty good when Kluber & Chapman were doing well.

 

We've added Sale, Schwarber, Iggy and Shaw, and shed Brice, Andriese, Marwin and Cordero/Santana.

 

We are a better team, on paper, now, despite the pen woes.

 

I refuse to judge any team on one 3 game series.

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox and Yankees have both had roller coaster seasons.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

True, but the Yanks were pretty good when Kluber & Chapman were doing well.

 

We've added Sale, Schwarber, Iggy and Shaw, and shed Brice, Andriese, Marwin and Cordero/Santana.

 

We are a better team, on paper, now, despite the pen woes.

 

I refuse to judge any team on one 3 game series.

 

And yet, how many times in the second half of the season in supposed big games against teams we're fighting to reach the postseason have we witnessed "the worst loss of the year"?

 

I said over a month ago there's not a single pitcher on the staff that can be trusted in a big moment (and I wanted that guy to be Eovaldi, and he still might be our best hope)...

[moonslav59]

And yet, how many times in the second half of the season in supposed big games against teams we're fighting to reach the postseason have we witnessed "the worst loss of the year"?

 

I said over a month ago there's not a single pitcher on the staff that can be trusted in a big moment (and I wanted that guy to be Eovaldi, and he still might be our best hope)...

 

I'm not disputing this. My point is the same can be said about NYY and TOR.

 

I get the big single pitcher argument, but that is never a guarantee in a one game play-in. Sure, it gives one team an advantage, but we are not even sure Cole will be the guy we face. They may need him in their final series vs TBR to just make the WC.

 

BTW, in many games, where it seemed to be a point where, if we lost, we'd be doomed or close to doomed, we won.

 

We got swept by the O's to start the season, then won 9 in a row. I know that was a long time ago, but time and again we responded to adversity.

 

In early June, we lost the first 3 to HOU and then won 4 straight vs HOU and NYY. People were counting us out before that last HOU game.

 

Later, we lost the last 2 games at TBR (one 1-0) and then rattled off 8 straight vs NYY, KCR and @Oak.

 

In July, we lost the last 2 games in NYY then won 6 of 7 vs NYY & TOR- yes those two teams. July was not that long ago and before we has Houck back and Sale, Schwarber, Iggy and Shaw.

 

After we lost 12 out of 16 to TBR, DET, TOR in early August, we swept the O's to get back in it.

 

Then, we got swept by the Yanks, but bounced back to win the next 4 of 5 series- tying the other one 2-2 with the Rays. That period included losig 3 straight to CLE & TBR before winning that "BIG GAME" on Sept 8th vs the Rays 2-1.

 

After losing the last game at the CWS, we lost the first game at SEA- the west coast trips always being a big sore spot in Sox history. All looked lost, but what did we do? We won the next 2 at SEA, swept the O's and Mets to win 7 straight. Many of those games could have been called "must win" games.

 

We just lost 3 to the Yanks. It sucked, but let's not pretend we have never come up big when it counted.

 

[mvp 78]

After we lost 12 out of 16 to TBR, DET, TOR in early August, we swept the O's to get back in it.

Then, we got swept by the Yanks, but bounced back to win the next 4 of 5 series- tying the other one 2-2 with the Rays. That period included losig 3 straight to CLE & TBR before winning that "BIG GAME" on Sept 8th vs the Rays 2-1.

 

After losing the last game at the CWS, we lost the first game at SEA- the west coast trips always being a big sore spot in Sox history. All looked lost, but what did we do? We won the next 2 at SEA, swept the O's and Mets to win 7 straight. Many of those games could have been called "must win" games.

 

We just lost 3 to the Yanks. It sucked, but let's not pretend we have never come up big when it counted.

 

 

Not sure we can really pat ourselves on the back for beating the O's. Losing to good teams and then beating up on bad teams isn't a recipe for playoff success.

[moonslav59]

Not sure we can really pat ourselves on the back for beating the O's. Losing to good teams and then beating up on bad teams isn't a recipe for playoff success.

 

I included a couple examples of beating bad teams, but you know what? When the Yanks lost a zillion staright, some were to bad teams, too.

 

SEA and the Mets are not "bad teams."

 

There were some big wins vs good teams, too:

 

"Won 4 straight vs HOU and NYY. People were counting us out before that last HOU game.

 

Later, we lost the last 2 games at TBR (one 1-0) and then rattled off 8 straight vs NYY, KCR and @Oak.

 

In July, we lost the last 2 games in NYY then won 6 of 7 vs NYY & TOR- yes those two teams. July was not that long ago and before we has Houck back and Sale, Schwarber, Iggy and Shaw.

 

Then, we got swept by the Yanks, but bounced back to win the next 4 of 5 series- tying the other one 2-2 with the Rays. That period included losing 3 straight to CLE & TBR before winning that "BIG GAME" on Sept 8th vs the Rays 2-1.

Edited September 27, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

Any wins prior to the deadline weren't really "big wins" IMO.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

We just lost 3 to the Yanks. It sucked, but let's not pretend we have never come up big when it counted.

 

 

The glaring issue is 8-21 against teams with winning records since the trade deadline. Boston has bounced back all year, but we all know the D and the current pitching guarantees nothing this week against Baltimore and Washington -- two bad teams, but still big league teams.

 

The Sox should hit, though, because even though they whiff a lot vs. good pitching, they also make hard contact. How many rockets were ripped right at Yankees all weekend -- those liners are due to find some gaps. But: how many runs will make the end of these next six games safe???

[Nick]

I included a couple examples of beating bad teams, but you know what? When the Yanks lost a zillion staright, some were to bad teams, too.

 

SEA and the Mets are not "bad teams."

 

There were some big wins vs good teams, too:

 

"Won 4 straight vs HOU and NYY. People were counting us out before that last HOU game.

 

Later, we lost the last 2 games at TBR (one 1-0) and then rattled off 8 straight vs NYY, KCR and @Oak.

 

In July, we lost the last 2 games in NYY then won 6 of 7 vs NYY & TOR- yes those two teams. July was not that long ago and before we has Houck back and Sale, Schwarber, Iggy and Shaw.

 

Then, we got swept by the Yanks, but bounced back to win the next 4 of 5 series- tying the other one 2-2 with the Rays. That period included losing 3 straight to CLE & TBR before winning that "BIG GAME" on Sept 8th vs the Rays 2-1.

 

There are signs pointing against the Sox’ chances, too, such as the fact they are 8-21 against winning teams since the July 30 trade deadline and that they lost their final six matchups (and 3 of the last 12) against the Yankees.

 

Not all is good here.

[mvp 78]

The glaring issue is 8-21 against teams with winning records since the trade deadline.

 

This team wasn't built to be a playoff team. This team was built to be an "also ran" IMO. They played above their heads for 2/3's of this season and are going to coast to the playoffs.

[moonslav59]

There are signs pointing against the Sox’ chances, too, such as the fact they are 8-21 against winning teams since the July 30 trade deadline and that they lost their final six matchups (and 3 of the last 12) against the Yankees.

 

Not all is good here.

 

We don't play winning teams the rest of the way, until that play-in game.

 

Sure, there are indicators we will have a hard time winning, but it's one game, and I seriously doubt 8-21 will be all that meaningful.

 

The Yanks have played real well vs winning teams, of late, but let's see how they do vs TOR & TBR to finish the year, then we'll talk some more.

 

If they win 4 of 6 or even go 3-3, no doubt, they should be the faves, but so what? We weren't the faves going into 2021, and look what happened.

[mvp 78]

Sure, there are indicators we will have a hard time winning, but it's one game, and I seriously doubt 8-21 will be all that meaningful.

 

An 8-21 streak against good teams is actually very meaningful. If they struggle to beat good teams, you can't say "well, it's just a crapshoot in the playoffs." In this situation, the deck would be extremely stacked against the Red Sox.

[Nick]

An 8-21 streak against good teams is actually very meaningful. If they struggle to beat good teams, you can't say "well, it's just a crapshoot in the playoffs." In this situation, the deck would be extremely stacked against the Red Sox.

 

thank you....it means something. Now we may go against the trend but it does not look good for us. Longer the game goes, our chances weaken against the Yankees. Their offense stacks up better against our pitching than vice versa.

[jacksonianmarch]

If the sox don't end up in a play in game at worst then the final week is an utter failure. They have the best setup of the 3 teams fighting for the ALWC