A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[jad]

All 5 of the starters have pitched well at certain points, and Eovaldi has mostly been excellent. Our bullpen has been outstanding. We have pulled off a lot of come-from-behind wins. We have a great manager. We've been fortunate, based on our run differential.

 

Sustaining all that the rest of the way is going to be the hard part.

 

I know. It just seems miraculous that the Sox are where they are now. It's like the 9th inning with Schiraldi on the mound (one of my favorites then!), two outs, and a couple of dribblers sneak through the infield into left.

[Maxbialystock]

I'm happy too. But remember, there was an 86 year waiting period.

 

I was a Sox fan from 1949 to 2004, which means 55 years of the 86 year waiting period, and feel more than amply rewarded for my "patience" (of which I had none). Now it's easy to be patient.

[moonslav59]

On the road back to Texas.

 

5 weeks in Maine was glorious. My dad turned 94!

 

Sox- Gotta turn thing around.

[Maxbialystock]

I think Cora does an outstanding job. One of the best managers in the game. As for Bloom , he still has something to prove. He has been in the business for 16 years and only has a den full of participation trophies to show for it. Our core players , the five All Stars , we're all inherited by Bloom. He still needs to win one.

 

See splendidsplinter's comment about this past month: John Henry didn't want to go over the luxury tax, and Bloom didn't want to give away any good prospects.

 

And I agree with both of them. Bloom inherited a mess from DD and has gone far to meet John Henry's guidance while in the meantime fielding a very competitive team this year.

 

Yes, I'm plenty worried about the final two months, a rotation that seems non-competitive, etc, but I also am not so sure one great starter like Kershaw was going to fix our pitching. Plus I think his price was too high.

 

Meanwhile, I am going to root, root, root for the good guys.

[Bellhorn04]

See splendidsplinter's comment about this past month: John Henry didn't want to go over the luxury tax, and Bloom didn't want to give away any good prospects.

 

This actually conflicts with one widely reported rumor that Red Sox ownership was pushing for Scherzer, which would have meant going over the tax line. So either the rumor was BS or Henry was willing to go over the line.

[Maxbialystock]

On the road back to Texas.

 

5 weeks in Maine was glorious. My dad turned 94!

 

Sox- Gotta turn thing around.

 

Never been to Maine, especially northern Maine, but have heard great things about it in the summer. You mentioned your dad before, and I again say, "terrific." Safe trip Texas.

[Maxbialystock]

This actually conflicts with one widely reported rumor that Red Sox ownership was pushing for Scherzer, which would have meant going over the tax line. So either the rumor was BS or Henry was willing to go over the line.

 

Well, Scherzer was probably the best fix for what ails the Sox, but my guess is that JH and CB both wanted to get him for something like Andriese, Chavis, and $1.99 in cash.

 

Plus, I say again, I'm not so sure one great starter would be enough. Right now Eovaldi is solid, Sale is a hope--a very good hope, but mixed with some uncertainty--and the rest of the rotation is inconsistent or just lousy.

 

And the hitting seems to be dropping off a little.

[dgalehouse]

Our five All Stars , Chris Sale , the Killer B outfield and top prospects , Duran , Casas and Houck. All part of the " mess " Bloom inherited.

[Bellhorn04]

Our five All Stars , Chris Sale , the Killer B outfield and top prospects , Duran , Casas and Houck. All part of the " mess " Bloom inherited.

 

You're a man on a mission, Denny.

[vegasbob]

Comments on pitching still dominate but consider the hitting/scoring

 

Since the A-S break, Red Sox run scoring is 4-1-1-13-7-5-6-3-5-5-4-1-1-3, a total of 59 runs (46 w/o the 13 game) in 14 games that they have split 8W's and 6 L's. Absent the 13 run outlier it's an average of 3.6 per game. My complaint about Schwarber is that if he misses the next 7 games it represents almost 15% of remaining games, a 10 game miss is almost 20%. A 5-5 record over those next 10 games will leave us in 2nd place by minimum of 2-3 games.

 

Good news is NYY and TBJ's can't make up the difference before Sale and Schwarber are playing

Edited July 31, 2021 by vegasbob

[Bellhorn04]

Comments on pitching still dominate but consider the hitting/scoring

 

Since the A-S break, Red Sox run scoring is 4-1-1-13-7-5-6-3-5-5-1-1-3, a total of 55 runs (42 w/o the 13 game) in 13 games that they have split 7W's and 6 L's. Absent the 13 run outlier it's an average of 3.5 per game. My complaint about Schwarber is that if he misses the next 7 games it represents almost 15% of remaining games, a 10 game miss is almost 20%. A 5-5 record over those next 10 games will leave us in 2nd place by minimum of 2-3 games.

 

Good news is NYY and TBJ's can't make up the difference before Sale and Schwarber are playing

 

You have nailed a bunch of relevant facts there without a doubt. We have a lot of concerns right now. Only some W's can cure these ills.

[Bellhorn04]

I would be feeling much better about our chances if E-Rod was pitching better. If he keeps sucking, we're in trouble for sure.

[a700hitter]

I would be feeling much better about our chances if E-Rod was pitching better. If he keeps sucking, we're in trouble for sure.

If he keeps sucking, the Red Sox are done.

[oldtimer]

I was a Sox fan from 1949 to 2004, which means 55 years of the 86 year waiting period, and feel more than amply rewarded for my "patience" (of which I had none). Now it's easy to be patient.

 

And I was a fan from 1947 to present. Ted Williams won the triple crown that year and I was hooked from then on. I'm not as patient as you wen I see a glaring need and management doesn't find a way to make improvements.

[oldtimer]

On the road back to Texas.

 

5 weeks in Maine was glorious. My dad turned 94!

 

Sox- Gotta turn thing around.

 

How do you suggest that can be done with our existing personnel?

[Nick]

How do you suggest that can be done with our existing personnel?

 

Try different things. How about an opener? We added couple of more pieces to bullpen. We have the ability to rotate four players right now between AAA and majors.

 

Do something to get through the 1st inning.

 

That's one idea.

[Nick]

Chris Sale pitched 5 innings today, throwing 81 pitches, 51 for strikes. He left the game leading 3-1.

 

How many pitches does he have to throw to be ready? 100?

 

Someone should ask him, "are you ready?"

[Hugh2]

Chris Sale pitched 5 innings today, throwing 81 pitches, 51 for strikes. He left the game leading 3-1.

 

How many pitches does he have to throw to be ready? 100?

 

Someone should ask him, "are you ready?"

 

Would one expect his last rehab start to be close to a full game of IP?

[Nick]

Would one expect his last rehab start to be close to a full game of IP?

 

Someone with pitching knowledge said you can expect to add 15 pitches per outing.

 

That puts him at 96 pitches as a target for next outing. We're going to waste it at AA?

 

If we're down 5 games by the time he's "ready" what the hell does it matter?

[moonslav59]

How do you suggest that can be done with our existing personnel?

 

I’d have had Sale throw 81 pitches for the Sox not the Sea Dogs. It’s silly to wait until he can pitch 90-100 pitches before calling him up.

 

I’d have had Houck start for us not the Sea Dogs.

 

I’d slowly ease up Whitlock’s IP.

 

Not sure there is much else that hasn’t been tried.

[Maxbialystock]

I’d have had Sale throw 81 pitches for the Sox not the Sea Dogs. It’s silly to wait until he can pitch 90-100 pitches before calling him up.

 

I’d have had Houck start for us not the Sea Dogs.

 

I’d slowly ease up Whitlock’s IP.

 

Not sure there is much else that hasn’t been tried.

 

Well, it's unlikely they will do any of those things. So, with Eovaldi going tonight and the Sox being trounced, 9-5, this season could well be over.

 

Indeed, it's entirely possible Bloom and John Henry both knew the season was over when there was no attempt to fix the rotation--for the reasons you stated. JH didn't want to go over the luxury tax amount, and Bloom didn't want to give up a decent prospect. In their defense, I honestly don't think this rotation is fixable. However, I also think your ideas are as close as any I've seen for fixing the rotation.

Edited August 1, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[iortiz]

Wonder whether we had the pieces to land Scherzer, and if so who are they?

[moonslav59]

Well, it's unlikely they will do any of those things. So, with Eovaldi going tonight and the Sox being trounced, 9-5, this season could well be over.

 

Indeed, it's entirely possible Bloom and John Henry both knew the season was over when there was no attempt to fix the rotation--for the reasons you stated. JH didn't want to go over the luxury tax amount, and Bloom didn't want to give up a decent prospect. In their defense, I honestly don't think this rotation is fixable. However, I also think your ideas are as close as any I've seen for fixing the rotation.

 

Season over?

 

Wow!

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

Season over?

 

Wow!

 

I would question 'season over.' However, I would leave out the 'WOW!' because I wouldn't be surprised if it is.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I would put Ottavino on the IL for some rest, it looks like he is trending in the wrong direction and this is a guy who doesn't pitch as well late in the season (in recent years). Of course, I'm not sure who the Red Sox would replace Ottavino with, since the Red Sox didn't trade for any quality relief arms at the deadline.

 

Edit--here it is: Ottavino's last 4 appearances, 3 IP, 3.00 WHIP, and a 21.00 ERA. And before anyone brings up the "brilliant" observation of, "small sample size," it is worth noting that small sample sizes are pretty much what you rely on when it comes to relief pitchers.

 

Ottavino is getting older, perhaps his annual decline has started earlier than usual?

 

Let's say Ottavino continues to fall apart, who do you replace him with? The Red Sox need Houck in the rotation. Whitlock would be the best choice, but I was thinking the Red Sox need to save Whitlock for the games started by Houck. Kind of like: Houck and Whitlock together would equal one dominant starter, but that strategy doesn't work if the Red Sox need Whitlock to become the main 8th inning set up guy.

Edited August 1, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

I would question 'season over.' However, I would leave out the 'WOW!' because I wouldn't be surprised if it is.

 

No way is it over. This team is magical and responds best when their backs are to the wall.

[moonslav59]

I would put Ottavino on the IL for some rest, it looks like he is trending in the wrong direction and this is a guy who doesn't pitch as well late in the season (in recent years). Of course, I'm not sure who the Red Sox would replace Ottavino with, since the Red Sox didn't trade for any quality relief arms at the deadline.

 

Edit--here it is: Ottavino's last 4 appearances, 3 IP, 3.00 WHIP, and a 21.00 ERA. And before anyone brings up the "brilliant" observation of, "small sample size," it is worth noting that small sample sizes are pretty much what you rely on when it comes to relief pitchers.

 

Ottavino is getting older, perhaps his annual decline has started earlier than usual?

 

Let's say Ottavino continues to fall apart, who do you replace him with? The Red Sox need Houck in the rotation. Whitlock would be the best choice, but I was thinking the Red Sox need to save Whitlock for the games started by Houck. Kind of like: Houck and Whitlock together would equal one dominant starter, but that strategy doesn't work if the Red Sox need Whitlock to become the main 8th inning set up guy.

 

Maybe just give him 3 days off and then use him less for a week or two.

[Larry Cook]

No way is it over. This team is magical and responds best when their backs are to the wall.

 

This team is stretched thin. Injuries have forced us to play guys that are not ready/capable of contributing.

[Hugh2]

Someone with pitching knowledge said you can expect to add 15 pitches per outing.

 

That puts him at 96 pitches as a target for next outing. We're going to waste it at AA?

 

If we're down 5 games by the time he's "ready" what the hell does it matter?

 

I’d hope his next start is in Boston, but consider this. Is it all about innings pitched? Is that the only thing that seems a pitcher done with rehab and ready? What about his mechanics? Is he repeating his delivery? Velocity? Secondaries? Consistency? Etc. there’s more to the equation than the raw number of innings pitched.

 

I have a hard time believing he’s not MLB ready after his last start. But I don’t really know.

[oldtimer]

Well, it's unlikely they will do any of those things. So, with Eovaldi going tonight and the Sox being trounced, 9-5, this season could well be over.

 

Indeed, it's entirely possible Bloom and John Henry both knew the season was over when there was no attempt to fix the rotation--for the reasons you stated. JH didn't want to go over the luxury tax amount, and Bloom didn't want to give up a decent prospect. In their defense, I honestly don't think this rotation is fixable. However, I also think your ideas are as close as any I've seen for fixing the rotation.

 

I think you are correct in your evaluation based on what has transpired.

 

The Sox are looking at the longer term goal and as a result were unwilling to exceed the CBT and also unwilling to trade away their best prospects, which are still in short supply in our minor league system.

 

The management were well aware of our needs for one or two starters and a first baseman. Despite being well up in the standings in the East, except for the Rays, the management didn't see a way for this team to go far in the playoffs.

 

As a result we were uncompetitive at the trade deadline while others in our division made solid moves to help themselves. The Yankees move may not help them reach the playoffs so may be seen as questionable.

 

We may wind up quickly losing our road to the playoffs as we have a major weakness with starting pitching.

 

We will have to thin down our roster going forward into 2022. Who will we get rid of. The fans have many suggestions and they are no fools.

 

I just wish that Bloom was more up front with his approach at the trade deadline, but i suppose he couldn't give off the kind of information which has become evident by his actions.