A Realistic View at 2021: Part III

[moonslav59]

I don't know, you use Whitlock in games you can win. Richards and Perez negate that premise LOL

 

Not if you can yank them early enough.

 

It would have been nice to have Houck and Whitlock for long relief.

[Nick]

Martinez, Bogaerts struggling

MassLive

J.D. Martinez went 0-for-4 and left three men on base Friday.

 

He’s 0-for-12 with four strikeouts in his past three games. He’s 4-for-34 (.118) in his past nine games.

 

“J.D. went through a stretch like a month ago ... that he wasn’t walking. And he was swinging at pitches that were at the edges of the strike zone. It doesn’t matter if you’re J.D. Martinez or Alex Cora, a .230 hitter, if you swing at the edge of the strike zone, it’s hard to hit the ball hard. So it’s just getting back to what he does. ... Teams are going to avoid the strike zone with him. They’re going to pitch to the edges. And when he’s in that swing-mode, aggressive-mode, then he expands and there’s no hard contact.”

 

Xander Bogaerts had two infield singles Friday. He’s 6-for-33 (.182) in his past nine games. He has dealt with a wrist issue recently.

Edited July 31, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

I'd bring Sale up, now, too.

 

Sale working on his pitches/command on the fly (ie vs major league batters) is better than Richards any day of the week.

[moonslav59]

Sale working on his pitches/command on the fly is better than Richards any day of the week.

 

Not to mention Perez, Pivetta and maybe ERod.

[Bellhorn04]

Not if you can yank them early enough.

 

So if we score 5 or 6 early runs and yank them just before the tying run comes to the plate, which might be in the third inning, we're good...

 

Sorry man, just feeling a little negative about the rotation today.

[jacksonianmarch]

Not predicting this in any way, but if the Sox slip from a PO spot and end up outside looking in come October, yet finish with 90 or so wins, was 2021 a success?

[Bellhorn04]

Not predicting this in any way, but if the Sox slip from a PO spot and end up outside looking in come October, yet finish with 90 or so wins, was 2021 a success?

 

A semi-success, and a disappointment.

[Nick]

Not predicting this in any way, but if the Sox slip from a PO spot and end up outside looking in come October, yet finish with 90 or so wins, was 2021 a success?

 

No

 

We're men. We're in it to win.

 

Do you consider ANY of the Years over the past twenty years other than the World Championship win a success for the Yankees?

 

No one gives a damn about winning the pennant unless you're the Braves.

[moonslav59]

So if we score 5 or 6 early runs and yank them just before the tying run comes to the plate, which might be in the third inning, we're good...

 

Sorry man, just feeling a little negative about the rotation today.

 

Our rotation is in near total shambles. Only Eovaldi and maybe ERod ate not.

 

It's a mess. Sale & Houck offer a little hope, but they are being held back in the minors for another lost start.

[jacksonianmarch]

No

 

We're men. We're in it to win.

 

Do you consider ANY of the Years over the past twenty years other than the World Championship win a success for the Yankees?

 

No one gives a damn about winning the pennant unless you're the Braves.

 

I consider the 2016 season a success. Dealing off the guys we did to rebuild and then watching that team immediately run to the ALCS the following year was awesome to see

[Hugh2]

What are you basing this opinion on?

 

A 60 PA against sample size, where opponents hit .735 off him? That's not all that bad, and he does much better the third time through, so what about that?

 

.377 first time (63 PAs)

.735 second time (60 PAs)

.452 third time (14 PAs)

 

If you add the second time to the third time, he's under .700.

 

Let's see him start a few more times, before we rush to judgments.

 

Plus, we need Whitlock in Richards and Perez starts more.

 

On the basis that he only throws two pitches.

 

Pitchers who can’t as a 3rd pitch to their arsenal fail as starters going all the way back to the beginning of time.

 

His fastball is great, and his slider is legit too. But the second time through the order hitters know to just lay off the slider.

 

This has played out in the minor leagues too. Look at his Milb game logs, look what happens to him second time through a lineup. Houck is fine in the rotation right now, but if he doesn’t add to his-arsenal he’s destined for the bullpen.

[jad]

So if we score 5 or 6 early runs and yank them just before the tying run comes to the plate, which might be in the third inning, we're good...

 

Sorry man, just feeling a little negative about the rotation today.

 

Exactly. I was driving around yesterday trying to remind myself of the RS rotation. I kept thinking, I MUST be missing someone or perhaps more than one, since all the names that came to mind seemed like #4 or 5 or even 'desperate' starters (Pivetta? Perez? ...) The enormity of the problem hit me when I realized I did in fact have them all, even our apparent 'ace' Eovaldi. Listening to the last few games makes me wonder how the RS are even a .500 team, let alone in first place.

[Bellhorn04]

Exactly. I was driving around yesterday trying to remind myself of the RS rotation. I kept thinking, I MUST be missing someone or perhaps more than one, since all the names that came to mind seemed like #4 or 5 or even 'desperate' starters (Pivetta? Perez? ...) The enormity of the problem hit me when I realized I did in fact have them all, even our apparent 'ace' Eovaldi. Listening to the last few games makes me wonder how the RS are even a .500 team, let alone in first place.

 

All 5 of the starters have pitched well at certain points, and Eovaldi has mostly been excellent. Our bullpen has been outstanding. We have pulled off a lot of come-from-behind wins. We have a great manager. We've been fortunate, based on our run differential.

 

Sustaining all that the rest of the way is going to be the hard part.

[Bellhorn04]

I consider the 2016 season a success. Dealing off the guys we did to rebuild and then watching that team immediately run to the ALCS the following year was awesome to see

 

Sometimes you judge these things in retrospect. If the 2021 Red Sox miss the playoffs, but the 2022 team wins 100 games and goes deep, Sox fans would look on 2021 much more kindly in the rear view mirror.

[jacksonianmarch]

That is true. I basically tuned out 2016 til after the deadline and watched Sanchez go nuts thereafter

[S5Dewey]

Sale working on his pitches/command on the fly (ie vs major league batters) is better than Richards any day of the week.

 

FWIW, I saw Sale pitch his second game in Portland. At one point he loaded the bases with nobody out after a HBP, & (IIRC) a couple of singles. The manger them came out to talk to him and told him that he had to pitch his way out of it.... and he promptly K'd (overmatched) the next three hitters.

 

I don't understand why he's getting one more MiL start either but I'll trust Sale & the FO to do things right.

[S5Dewey]

Sometimes you judge these things in retrospect. If the 2021 Red Sox miss the playoffs, but the 2022 team wins 100 games and goes deep, Sox fans would look on 2021 much more kindly in the rear view mirror.

 

This^^

 

Remember when we hit The Cliff? And there was considerable hang-wringing that the Sox wouldn't be able to (even) compete for 3-4 years? Well, it's now 2021 and they're leading the AL East and are probably looking at a PO spot. We need to remember that Bloom has said that he's building a team for the long run. IMO everything we get this year is a bonus.

 

But.. that's just My Opinion.

[Nick]

All 5 of the starters have pitched well at certain points, and Eovaldi has mostly been excellent. Our bullpen has been outstanding. We have pulled off a lot of come-from-behind wins. We have a great manager. We've been fortunate, based on our run differential.

 

Sustaining all that the rest of the way is going to be the hard part.

 

You're good poster. I'm not trying to bait you.

 

But knowing that our starting pitching ERA ranks 20th in majors, AND April/May results are much better than June/July, what do you do with this staff?

 

Would you make any changes? Or do we simply flip a coin (hope it comes up heads) and PRAY TO GOD we'll get good performance out of Perez next time as an example?

 

Do we consider using an opener with say Whitlock? Can he come in for one inning stint between starts if we do?

 

Sale

Eovaldi

Houck

Whitlock

Pivetta?

 

What options do we have? None?

 

We watch the ship go down and say well we had a good season?

 

Or are we merely in a slump? 7-6 after the All Star break.

 

Last 5 starts and innings pitched is worriesome.

 

P H R ER BB K HR Score

4.0 7 6 6 1 3 3 4-7 M Perez

3.1 7 6 6 4 8 0 1-13 E Rod

4.0 2 1 1 1 7 0 4- 1 T Houck

4.0 8 4 4 1 2 2 1-4 G Richards

4.2 6 4 4 2 3 1 5-4 N Pivetta

6.0 6 3 3 2 6 1 5-4 M Perez

7.2 7 2 2 0 8 0 3-4 N Eovaldi

 

And we shouldn't worry about our starting pitching?

 

 

Combination of offensive slump and starting pitching going south does not bode well as we face intra divisional foes.

Edited July 31, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

FWIW, I saw Sale pitch his second game in Portland. At one point he loaded the bases with nobody out after a HBP, & (IIRC) a couple of singles. The manger them came out to talk to him and told him that he had to pitch his way out of it.... and he promptly K'd (overmatched) the next three hitters.

 

I don't understand why he's getting one more MiL start either but I'll trust Sale & the FO to do things right.

 

Sale has said on record he trusts the FO to do things right and he's not going to go against it. I'm questioning FO.

 

Let's see if FO feels the same way if we get swept by the Rays.

Edited July 31, 2021 by Nick

[iortiz]

You're good poster. I'm not trying to bait you.

 

But knowing that our starting pitching ERA ranks 20th in majors, AND April/May results are much better than June/July, what do you do with this staff?

 

Would you make any changes? Or do we simply flip a coin (hope it comes up heads) and PRAY TO GOD we'll get good performance out of Perez next time as an example?

 

Do we consider using an opener with say Whitlock? Can he come in for one inning stint between starts if we do?

 

Sale

Eovaldi

Houck

Whitlock

Pivetta?

 

What options do we have? None?

 

We watch the ship go down and say well we had a good season?

 

Or are we merely in a slump? 7-6 after the All Star break.

 

Last 5 starts and innings pitched is worriesome.

 

P H R ER BB K HR Score

4.0 7 6 6 1 3 3 4-7 M Perez

3.1 7 6 6 4 8 0 1-13 E Rod

4.0 2 1 1 1 7 0 4- 1 T Houck

4.0 8 4 4 1 2 2 1-4 G Richards

4.2 6 4 4 2 3 1 5-4 N Pivetta

6.0 6 3 3 2 6 1 5-4 M Perez

7.2 7 2 2 0 8 0 3-4 N Eovaldi

 

And we shouldn't worry about our starting pitching?

 

 

Combination of offensive slump and starting pitching going south does not bode well as we face intra divisional foes.

Assuming Sale comes back (and If he comes back I assume he is oks) I’d go like this:

 

Sale

Eovaldi

Houck

Rodriguez/Pivetta

BPning

 

This configuration is a solid rotation.

[Nick]

Assuming Sale comes back (and If he comes back I assume he is oks) I’d go like this:

 

Sale

Eovaldi

Houck

Rodriguez/Pivetta

BPning

 

This configuration is a solid rotation.

 

Richards/Perez should be doing mop up duty. As in two nights ago.

[Nick]

To make room for two new relievers, Rios and Valdez back to the minors?

 

Also Adams has options left so he can be exchanged for Houck.

 

We have day off every Monday, 8/2, 8/9, 8/16, 8/23 and 8/19 (Thursday).

 

Two double headers but they're 7 inning affair.

 

And the roster expands to 28 on 9/1.

 

Do we need to send someone on a 10 day phantom illness from being overused?

[Bellhorn04]

Bloom and Cora have some juggling to do with the pitching, that's for sure. I think they're up to it. Going to be interesting.

[Maxbialystock]

The trade deadline has come and gone. We added Schwarber and scraps. His best position is LF or DH, and that was not our highest need areas, in fact, it might have been our lowest need area. Don't get me wrong, I like the trade, especially if he can play 1B.

 

We did not trade away much of our farm or meaningful vets.

 

I'll leave the talk about 2022 for later, but here is how I see our 26 man roster shaping up, when all is healthy.

 

1. Kike CF

2. Verdugo LF

3. Bogey SS

4. JD DH

5. Devers 3B

6. Schwarber 1B

7. Renfroe RF

8. Arroyo 2B

9. Vazquez C

 

10-13 Bench (4):

Plawecki

Duran

Marwin

Dalbec

 

14-18 SP'ers (5):

Eovaldi

Sale

ERod

Pivetta

Perez

 

19-26 RP'ers (8):

Barnes

Ottavino

Whitlock

Houck

Taylor

DHern

Sawamura

Valdez (Richards DFA?)

 

(DFA: Santana & Andriese)

 

Go SOX!

 

Link to Part II

 

https://www.talksox.com/forum/threads/20000-A-Realistic-View-at-2021-Part-II

 

Simple, straightforward, and scary, as you have readily acknowledged way back on page 1 of Part III.

 

Indeed. Richard, ERod, and Perez in their most recent starts underscore the problem with the rotation perfectly.

 

Meanwhile Bogaerts has the bad wrist, Schwarber the bad hammie, and Devers a touchy left quad and possibly other issues. So the offense which has been very good, if not as solid as lineups in the past, is a tad suspect.

 

And this over-achieving Sox team which has found all kinds of ways to win games this year, is entering the final two months with a pretty good bullpen and not much else.

 

In Bloom's defense, good starters this past month did not come cheap. Thus the deal for Schwarber.

Edited July 31, 2021 by Maxbialystock

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

A semi-success, and a disappointment.

 

Depends on one's personal definitions. If success is contending, then yes. And if disappointment is they fall off a rocky bluff -- after a rotation that over-achieved for a large sample size inevitably slips up -- then also yes.

 

Few of us would be willing to deal top prospects for Scherzer or Berrios, but it's arguable Bloom could've matched the kind of return Seattle and Miami got from Houston for both of their closers.

 

Longtime fans know that legitimate shots at glory aren't guaranteed every year, whether you have Rivera closing or are the Dodgers or the 90s Braves, who finished first 14 straight times.

[Maxbialystock]

Bloom and Cora have some juggling to do with the pitching, that's for sure. I think they're up to it. Going to be interesting.

 

Well said and optimistic.

 

I'm not there yet.

[Nick]

Longtime fans know that legitimate shots at glory aren't guaranteed every year, whether you have Rivera closing or are the Dodgers or the 90s Braves, who finished first 14 straight times.

 

Thanks but no to that success.

[Maxbialystock]

The cost was too high.

 

Exactly.

[Maxbialystock]

FWIW, I saw Sale pitch his second game in Portland. At one point he loaded the bases with nobody out after a HBP, & (IIRC) a couple of singles. The manger them came out to talk to him and told him that he had to pitch his way out of it.... and he promptly K'd (overmatched) the next three hitters.

 

I don't understand why he's getting one more MiL start either but I'll trust Sale & the FO to do things right.

 

Great on the scene observations. Thanks. I too trust Sale and Bloom.

[oldtimer]

You're good poster. I'm not trying to bait you.

 

But knowing that our starting pitching ERA ranks 20th in majors, AND April/May results are much better than June/July, what do you do with this staff?

 

Would you make any changes? Or do we simply flip a coin (hope it comes up heads) and PRAY TO GOD we'll get good performance out of Perez next time as an example?

 

Do we consider using an opener with say Whitlock? Can he come in for one inning stint between starts if we do?

 

Sale

Eovaldi

Houck

Whitlock

Pivetta?

 

What options do we have? None?

 

We watch the ship go down and say well we had a good season?

 

Or are we merely in a slump? 7-6 after the All Star break.

 

Last 5 starts and innings pitched is worriesome.

 

P H R ER BB K HR Score

4.0 7 6 6 1 3 3 4-7 M Perez

3.1 7 6 6 4 8 0 1-13 E Rod

4.0 2 1 1 1 7 0 4- 1 T Houck

4.0 8 4 4 1 2 2 1-4 G Richards

4.2 6 4 4 2 3 1 5-4 N Pivetta

6.0 6 3 3 2 6 1 5-4 M Perez

7.2 7 2 2 0 8 0 3-4 N Eovaldi

 

And we shouldn't worry about our starting pitching?

 

 

Combination of offensive slump and starting pitching going south does not bode well as we face intra divisional foes.

 

I don' think we can remove both Houck and Whitlock from relief roles. Houck has success as a starter so I would keep him there. His problem is that he wastes too many pitches so has trouble lasting more than 5. Maybe he can improve that with coaching. We have 4 pitchers who have struggled getting past one or two innings. Of those I trust Richards and Perez the least so would have Pivetta and E-rod as the 4th and 5th starters and use Richards and Perez as long relievers in games we are significantly behind.