A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[iortiz]

I never said Porcello was better than Mediocre. My point was his 2015 season of 4.92 was out of sync by almost as much as 2016 was.

 

If you want to count his age 20-22 seasons against him, fine. His 4.08 ERS in his last 3 seasons with Detroit at ages 23-25 were what I expected from Porcello with Boston as he "reached his prime years. Instead we got 4.92.

 

4.92

-4.08

0.84

 

4.08

-3.15 His Cy Young year

0.94

 

Pretty close to the same outlier status for both seasons, right?

 

His 3.15 ERA in 2016 was closer to his 2014 number than his 4.92 season of 2015 was.

 

Porcello was with the Sox for his peak prime years. He gave us 3.99 from 2016-2018 (3 seasons), then his bad 2019 season helped lead to DD's demise, as well.

 

He was a very good 3-5 slot pitcher who had his worst year in Ben's final season. Others sucked that year, too. That's all I'm saying.

 

Timing.

 

 

 

Well you are kind of sugar coating it with those splits and timings but the FACT is he was a mediocre-to-bad pitcher in Boston who won somehow a CY.

 

All-in-All his grade in Boston was a D. People expected a B.

[moonslav59]

Barnes:

 

Career

4.3 PA against per IP

18.7 pitches per IP

 

2021

3.5 PA against per IP

14.6 pitches per IP

 

He's on pace to break his personal high for IP (72 to 69.1), but at this pace, he'll have faced way less batters and pitched way less pitches than several seasons.

[a700hitter]

On the spectrum of Horse to Horse s***, Porcello lands somewhere in the middle.

[iortiz]

on the spectrum of horse to horse s***, porcello lands somewhere in the middle.

 

lol

[iortiz]

Maybe that is the definition of mediocre compadre LOL!

 

To me he got a D in Boston.

[moonslav59]

Well you are kind of sugar coating it with those splits and timings but the FACT is he was a mediocre-to-bad pitcher in Boston who won somehow a CY.

 

All-in-All his grade in Boston was a D. People expected a B.

 

Why did we expect a B?

 

His last 3 seasons with Detroit.

 

His final grade was a B- or C+.

 

He was a B from 2016-2018. An F or D in Ben & DD's final seasons.

 

I don't think it's sugar coating to discount a pitchers first 3 seasons, especially at ages 20-22, when you have 3 full seasons of sample size from ages 23-25.

 

There is no doubt, his 2015 season was an outlier, in this context. When you count what he did in his 3 years afterwards, it is even clearer.

Ages:

23-25 good (4.08)

26 bad (4.92)

27-29 good (3.99)

 

You can call it cherry-picking, but those are the meat of most any pitcher's career, and it is usual to expect a bell curve and not a low spike right at the peak of prime.

[moonslav59]

Maybe that is the definition of mediocre compadre LOL!

 

To me he got a D in Boston.

 

Because you expected a B not a C.

 

(I expected a B, too.)

[Bellhorn04]

Because you expected a B not a C.

 

(I expected a B, too.)

 

Our 2015 staff was just kind of bizarre. Buchholz, Porcello, Miley, Kelly and Masterson. We not only didn't have a #1, we arguably didn't have a #2. And our bullpen was not good.

 

Meanwhile we signed Pablo, Hanley and Rusney. It was an ugly offseason. And it led to another last place finish.

[iortiz]

Our 2015 staff was just kind of bizarre. Buchholz, Porcello, Miley, Kelly and Masterson. We not only didn't have a #1, we arguably didn't have a #2. And our bullpen was not good.

 

Meanwhile we signed Pablo, Hanley and Rusney. It was an ugly offseason. And it led to another last place finish.

 

After that disaster, Ben had to go. That pitching staff was pretty awful.

[Nick]

Bullpen still geting rest....

 

Dates pitched

 

M.Barnes...xx xx 29 xx xx 26 xx xx xx 22 xx 20

Ottavino... xx xx 29 28 xx 26 xx xx xx 22 xx xx

Josh Taylor xx xx 29 xx xx 26 xx xx xx 22 21 xx

Darwinzon. xx xx 29 xx xx xx xx xx xx 22 21 xx

Sawmura... xx xx 29 xx xx xx 25 xx 23 xx xx 20

Andriese.... 31 xx xx xx xx 26 xx xx 23 xx xx xx

Valdez....... 31 xx xx xx xx xx xx xx 23 22 xx 20

Whitlock.... xx xx xx xx xx xx 25 xx xx xx 21 xx

 

Nice job by Brewer....1 IP 3R 3ER 4H 3BB

 

The score was only 0-4. Not sure why Brewer came in....E Rod says thank you letting two runners score on me.

Edited May 31, 2021 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

A wise baseball man once said 'Every team is going to win 60 and lose 60. It's what happens in the other 42 that counts.'

 

I think tonight was one the 60 guaranteed losses.

[Nick]

A wise baseball man once said 'Every team is going to win 60 and lose 60. It's what happens in the other 42 that counts.'

 

I think tonight was one the 60 guaranteed losses.

 

Yep, if you're going to lose, that's how you do it.

[illinoisredsox]

Bullpen still geting rest....

 

Dates pitched

 

M.Barnes...xx xx 29 xx xx 26 xx xx xx 22 xx 20

Ottavino... xx xx 29 28 xx 26 xx xx xx 22 xx xx

Josh Taylor xx xx 29 xx xx 26 xx xx xx 22 21 xx

Darwinzon. xx xx 29 xx xx xx xx xx xx 22 21 xx

Sawmura... xx xx 29 xx xx xx 25 xx 23 xx xx 20

Andriese.... 31 xx xx xx xx 26 xx xx 23 xx xx xx

Valdez....... 31 xx xx xx xx xx xx xx 23 22 xx 20

Whitlock.... xx xx xx xx xx xx 25 xx xx xx 21 xx

 

Nice job by Brewer....1 IP 3R 3ER 4H 3BB

 

The score was only 0-4. Not sure why Brewer came in....E Rod says thank you letting two runners score on me.

 

Because Cora at this point is managing the marathon, not the sprint. Using the back end of the bull pen in a game you are losing is SOP for major league managers. If those guys to the job and hold the score as it is, great. If they don’t, nothing’s really lost.

 

If you look at your list, the top 5 guys are the ones who are going to be used when the Sox are ahead. The others are going to be used when they are behind. That can change come September, but right now it’s not going to.

Edited May 31, 2021 by illinoisredsox

[iortiz]

Because Cora at this point is managing the marathon, not the sprint. Using the back end of the bull pen in a game you are losing is SOP for major league managers. If those guys to the job and hold the score as it is, great. If they don’t, nothing’s really lost.

 

If you look at your list, the top 5 guys are the ones who are going to be used when the Sox are ahead. The others are going to be used when they are behind. That can change come September, but right now it’s not going to.

 

Great take ill as always.

[Nick]

HOUSTON -- In the coming days, the complete haul of players coming back to the Red Sox in the Andrew Benintendi trade will finally be known.

 

The Sox are due to acquire the remaining three players to be named later (two from the Royals and one from the Mets) in the near future, an industry source confirmed. The player from the Mets -- assumed to be the best player of the three -- is due by Friday, a source said. The exact deadline for the clubs to identify the two Royals players is unknown, but the Kansas City Star’s Lynn Worthy reported earlier Monday that the deal would be completed “as soon as the next week or two.” It is possible that the Red Sox negotiated different deadlines with Kansas City and New York.

 

Check this out Moon, per MassLive. You were right about the names being known soon. Mets 'deal' is up first. I'm guessing a pitcher.

[moonslav59]

HOUSTON -- In the coming days, the complete haul of players coming back to the Red Sox in the Andrew Benintendi trade will finally be known.

 

The Sox are due to acquire the remaining three players to be named later (two from the Royals and one from the Mets) in the near future, an industry source confirmed. The player from the Mets -- assumed to be the best player of the three -- is due by Friday, a source said. The exact deadline for the clubs to identify the two Royals players is unknown, but the Kansas City Star’s Lynn Worthy reported earlier Monday that the deal would be completed “as soon as the next week or two.” It is possible that the Red Sox negotiated different deadlines with Kansas City and New York.

 

Check this out Moon, per MassLive. You were right about the names being known soon. Mets 'deal' is up first. I'm guessing a pitcher.

 

I'm no guru. I just read it somewhere.

 

Here are some possible players with BTV's values.

 

Mets (notin suggested maybe Ginn)

Lee, the guy they got from KC has a current value of 9.3

 

Vientos 3B 13.2 (unlikely as we got Winckowski, too)

Ramirez OF 5.4

Ginn RHP 4.9

Dominguez RHP 2.6

Palmer 3B 2.4

Valdez OF 2.4

Santos RHP 2.3

(They have no prospects valued between 13.2 and 5.4, which is about what I'd expect us to get.)

 

2 from KC (Beni is currently valued at 10.8 and we are paying part of his contract)

 

Kowar RHP 16.8 (nope)

Loftin SS 9.3 (unlikely)

Pena OF 8.5 (unlikely)

Marsh RHP 7.5

Pratto 1B 6.8

Cox LHP 5.8

Melendez C 4.8

Bowlan RHP 3.8

Guzman SS 3.1

Hernandez RHP 2.6

Vasquez SS 2.6

Fox SS 2.3

Candelario SS 2.0

Several prospects between 1 and 1.8.

 

For reference, they have Sox prospects valued at...

9.9 Mata

7.6 Yorke

5.4 Seabold

5.3 Ward

5.0 Lugo

4.3 Groome

3.8 Song

3.5 Whitlock

3.3 Rosario

3.1 Wong

3.0 Murphy

2.6 Decker

2.4 Bonaci, Jordan & Potts

 

 

 

Edited June 1, 2021 by moonslav59

[oldtimer]

Luke Williams and Jarren Duran combined for six hits out of the top two spots in the US order, and Mark Kolosvery homered as the United States piled on late for a 7-1 win over Nicaragua on the first day of the Americas Baseball Qualifier from Clover Park in Port St. Lucie, Florida.

[Nick]

I did think E Rod ran into some cheap hits last night at Houston. He's given up two homers the last two games that's traveled 600 feet combined.

 

It's encouraging that his velocity is up on fastballs. He hit 95 pretty consisently.

 

He's having major command issues, going to 3 ball count on several hitters. I sure loved what the Houston pitcher was doing last night. Apparently he leads the league in highest strike zone % at 48% or something.

[mvp 78]

I did think E Rod ran into some cheap hits last night at Houston. He's given up two homers the last two games that's traveled 600 feet combined.

 

It's encouraging that his velocity is up on fastballs. He hit 95 pretty consisently.

 

He's having major command issues, going to 3 ball count on several hitters. I sure loved what the Houston pitcher was doing last night. Apparently he leads the league in highest strike zone % at 48% or something.

 

It has been a little bit of bad luck. However, opponents are really getting good contact off of him. When he puts the ball in the zone the batter is making contact 89.8% of the time when they swing. He's not really fooling anyone. His movement on his pitches is trending down. His line drive % is at a career high right now.

 

Again, he needs to dump his slider and increase his 4 seamer usage.

[Nick]

It has been a little bit of bad luck. However, opponents are really getting good contact off of him. When he puts the ball in the zone the batter is making contact 89.8% of the time when they swing. He's not really fooling anyone. His movement on his pitches is trending down. His line drive % is at a career high right now.

 

Again, he needs to dump his slider and increase his 4 seamer usage.

 

I would agree with you. If his struggles continue I just hope the team doesn't use real games to get get him better. If he needs to skip a rotation or two to work on his game then that's what he has to do.

[mvp 78]

I would agree with you. I just hope the team doesn't use real games to get get him better. if he continues to struggle. If he needs to skip a rotation or two to work on his game then that's what he has to do.

 

He hasn't been bad enough to give him the phantom IL. Right now, he gives them a better chance to win than any starter currently in AAA.

[Nick]

It has been a little bit of bad luck. However, opponents are really getting good contact off of him. When he puts the ball in the zone the batter is making contact 89.8% of the time when they swing. He's not really fooling anyone. His movement on his pitches is trending down. His line drive % is at a career high right now.

 

Again, he needs to dump his slider and increase his 4 seamer usage.

 

I agree with you. I just hope the team doesn't use real games to get get him better. If he needs to get work done on sidelines then that's what he has to do.

[Nick]

I realize Rays have played couple of more games than the Sox, but they've outscored the Sox despite having a pedestrian OPS compared to league leading Sox OPS. Is it possible they manufacture runs better than us? Apparently they are aggressive on base path (according whoever was doing TV vs Yankees).

 

Ray's run differential is +63 compared to +45 for Sox. They're playing well. I still like to see them sweep the Yankeed though. They've dominated Yankees of late.

[moonslav59]

I did think E Rod ran into some cheap hits last night at Houston. He's given up two homers the last two games that's traveled 600 feet combined.

 

It's encouraging that his velocity is up on fastballs. He hit 95 pretty consisently.

 

He's having major command issues, going to 3 ball count on several hitters. I sure loved what the Houston pitcher was doing last night. Apparently he leads the league in highest strike zone % at 48% or something.

 

Good analysis, Nick.

[moonslav59]

I realize Rays have played couple of more games than the Sox, but they've outscored the Sox despite having a pedestrian OPS compared to league leading Sox OPS. Is it possible they manufacture runs better than us? Apparently they are aggressive on base path (according whoever was doing TV vs Yankees).

 

Ray's run differential is +63 compared to +45 for Sox. They're playing well. I still like to see them sweep the Yankeed though. They've dominated Yankees of late.

 

Base running is sustainable.

 

Timely hitting is not.

[Kimmi]

It has been a little bit of bad luck. However, opponents are really getting good contact off of him. When he puts the ball in the zone the batter is making contact 89.8% of the time when they swing. He's not really fooling anyone. His movement on his pitches is trending down. His line drive % is at a career high right now.

 

Again, he needs to dump his slider and increase his 4 seamer usage.

 

ERod is pitching much better than his ERA indicates. He has one of the biggest differentials (I believe the 4th highest) between ERA and FIP, xFIP, and SIERA. Not to mention his BABIP.

 

He should be fine.

[Kimmi]

I realize Rays have played couple of more games than the Sox, but they've outscored the Sox despite having a pedestrian OPS compared to league leading Sox OPS. Is it possible they manufacture runs better than us? Apparently they are aggressive on base path (according whoever was doing TV vs Yankees).

 

Ray's run differential is +63 compared to +45 for Sox. They're playing well. I still like to see them sweep the Yankeed though. They've dominated Yankees of late.

 

Believe it or not, the Sox run the bases better than the Rays. The Sox are 6th in MLB with 4.2 base running runs while the Rays are 17th with -1.3 base running runs. The Yankees are 29th with -7. LOL

[Nick]

Believe it or not, the Sox run the bases better than the Rays. The Sox are 6th in MLB with 4.2 base running runs while the Rays are 17th with -1.3 base running runs. The Yankees are 29th with -7. LOL

 

Always bring a smile to our faces when the mighty Yankees have some flaws. Not as perfect as some think. They are really struggling with hitting. I thought their lineup would hit 400 homers.

[Nick]

Workman, who was released by the Cubs after 10 appearances in April, rejoined the Red Sox on May 6 and has been pitching at Triple-A Worcester for the last 3 ½ weeks. In seven appearances for the WooSox, the 32-year-old has pitched well, logging a 1.29 ERA (one earned run in seven innings) while allowing three hits and striking out 10 batters.

 

Balls on our court. I'd say why not? Surely someone on 40 man roster we can let go.

 

The Red Sox would appear to have a spot in the bullpen for Workman if they feel he is an upgrade over Colten Brewer, who allowed four runs in an inning in his season debut with the club Monday afternoon.

 

Seems like a no brainer to me.

Edited June 2, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

Renfroe is beginning to assert himself. Remember that while we're trying to win we're also trying to identify the core group for future. He's in his prime, 29 years old, under team control for 2021-2023.

 

He can join Devers, Xander and Verdugo going forward. We still need a CF (Duran), 2B (Downs) and 1B (Casas at some point).....all others are utility players.

 

Cora is beginning to limit Dalbec's at bats.