A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[moonslav59]

On paper (only) the two players that are on the 26 man roster who could possible help the offense by playing more than Marwin & Dalbec are Arroyo (.273/.702) and Plawecki (.260/.695). Santana has a decent OPS (.791) but low BA (.174).

 

Imagine, if at the start of the season, I told you I'd bearguing batting Plawecki and Arroyo might be the best solution to boosting a slumping offense! Even these two have OPS around .700, but they beat Marwin's sub ..560 mark and Dalbec's recent numbers.

 

Arroyo is easy: just play him at 2B and sit marwin, assuming Arroyo is healthy enough to play everyday.

 

Playing Plawecki means DH'ing Vaz or benching him. Vaz is not even close to our weakest batter, and if you DH Vaz, JD has to play OF, and for who? (Kike to 2B means Arroyo doesn't play.)

 

Folks, there's not many options for Cora.

 

If you put our best hitters up 1-5, which I assume means Renfroe batting 5th, or third, if you follow the analytics, our 6-9 hitters will be worse than they are now.

 

I'm not a fan of Kike up first. If you look at just 2021's OBP (not my way of choosing), Arroyo's .325 OPS wins the prize, and while .325 certainly beats Kike's .291 OBP, we're talking one more time on base 23 more times over 650 PAs- or about one more time a week.

 

It's worth a try, but don't expect miracles.

 

Is this worth a try?

 

1. Verdugo LF

2. Arroyo 2B

3. JD DH

4. Bogey SS

5. Devers 3B

6. Renfroe RF

7. Santana 1B

8. Vaz/Plawecki C

9. Kike CF

 

(or flip Arroyo and Verdugo)

[Bellhorn04]

I also remember before the Sale trade with White Sox, so many here argued AGAINST bringing up Moncada to the majors. All I heard was HE IS NOT READY. IT WOULD DAMAGE HIM IF HE FAILED. DD was not afraid to bring up kids from AA. That was his thing. They also knew then, there was a kid that could be better 3B than Moncada. Remember that Moncada was blocked at 2B, we had Pedey.

 

Moncada seems to have overcome to whatever damage Sox inflicted on him. His OPS is above .900.

 

My point then and now is why not turn every rock and see if you can find a gem.

 

Duran today is not the same player from 2019. He's bigger and stronger. All you can do is send him back down if he fails. I would bet he'll do better than Marwin, thus moving Kike full time to 2B. Platoon at 1B and our lineup could be solid.

 

But Moncada had posted strong numbers at every level before being promoted. Duran has not done that, not by a long shot.

[moonslav59]

To be fair to Moncada, the .513 OPS (which was in Boston) was only in 20 PA.

 

The .915 OPS was in his second season as a starter. The following .705 was in a shortened season in which he claims he never really got over a bout with COVID.

 

And this year, he is back up to .861, and has only 5 fewer PA than in 2020...

 

Agreed, but is he the poster boy for bringing up players more quickly?

[moonslav59]

But Moncada had posted strong numbers at every level before being promoted. Duran has not done that, not by a long shot.

 

Exactly, only true studs seem worthy of calling up more quickly. Not players hot for a couple weeks.

[notin]

Absolutely NOT.

 

I've been talking about KIke leading off for over a month.

 

It's also possible there's NO SOLUTION to this with our current roster.

 

But, I also don't want the Sox to think Verdugo, JD, Xander and Devers are enough to carry this team all year. Luckily Renfroe has joined the group.

 

Why not try to extend the lineup? I'm leaning towards Dalbec experiment as full time 1B for next ten years not working out despite my high hopes for the guy. Not this year anyway.

 

I also remember before the Sale trade with White Sox, so many here argued AGAINST bringing up Moncada to the majors. All I heard was HE IS NOT READY. IT WOULD DAMAGE HIM IF HE FAILED. DD was not afraid to bring up kids from AA. That was his thing. They also knew then, there was a kid that could be better 3B than Moncada. Remember that Moncada was blocked at 2B, we had Pedey.

 

Moncada seems to have overcome to whatever damage Sox inflicted on him. His OPS is above .900.

 

My point then and now is why not turn every rock and see if you can find a gem.

 

Duran today is not the same player from 2019. He's bigger and stronger. All you can do is send him back down if he fails. I would bet he'll do better than Marwin, thus moving Kike full time to 2B. Platoon at 1B and our lineup could be solid.

 

1. I’d be hesitant to call bringing up kids from AA Dombrowski’s “thing.” In 4 seasons with the Sox, he called up two starting position players (Devers and Benintendi) and didn’t call up either one in June. Benintendi debuted in August, and Devers in late July. He also didn’t call up any starter with more starts than Brian Johnson.

 

2. If the problem is Dalbec is failing to make an immediate impact, will people be equally patient with Duran? What happens when he struggles? And he will at some point....

[notin]

Also with Duran, if the Sox called him up today, he’d be eligible for Super Two status (meaning 4 years of arbitration instead of 3).

 

The Rays dealt their starting shortstop last week and didn’t call up their consensus top prospect to replace him for this very reason...

[moonslav59]

A 100 PA sample size is really not enough to know much about anybody.

 

Once someone sucks for 100 PAs, people say, "Why did Cora play that bum for so long?"

 

I'm glad he played Renfroe more than 100 PAs.

 

Maybe Cordero or dalbec were 1-2 games away from busting out, too.

 

It's a hard line to determine when enough is enough. I'm sure Cora wanted to give Cordero and Dalbec more time, but the team needs to win, too.

 

If managers went solely by what a player has done for him over the last week or two, plenty of great players would have been benched, often.

 

If baseball is anything, it's an exercise in patience. 4-5 hour games, 27 -29 games a month, 162 games a year...

[Bellhorn04]

And it takes even more patience than usual this year, with pitching dominating like we haven't seen for a long time.

[Nick]

Per Overthemonster folk

 

About two months ago, the Red Sox fanbase was up in arms after a season-opening series sweep at the hands of the laughing stock of baseball, the Baltimore Orioles. It was then that I put a moratorium on TAKES until Memorial Day, an unofficial checkpoint in the baseball season where we stop shouting “small sample size!” and are forced to take a closer look at the scenarios playing out around the league. Now that Memorial Day has come and gone, it’s due time to unleash some hot takes.

 

The Leadoff Spot

 

Getting mad about lineup construction is a rite of passage for a baseball fan. Even though the emphasis on lineup construction and efficiency has gone the way of the dodo in our broader baseball community due to the realization of how minuscule the advantage of an optimal lineup is compared to what most teams do nowadays, it’s something incredibly easy that can reap benefits for teams like the Sox that are playing on the margins.

 

The average leadoff hitter in baseball this year has a .336 OBP with a 113 wRC+. The Red Sox, who sit sixth in team non-pitcher wRC+ with a 110 mark, are 26th in leadoff OBP and 21st in leadoff wRC+. Enrique Hernández and his .291 OBP are not the solution to that problem. The Sox are a top-heavy offensive team and do a good job of bunching their best hitters together to ensure the best chance of stringing together hits in order to score runs in bunches with Alex Verdugo, Xander Bogaerts, J.D. Martinez, and Rafael Devers in the middle of the lineup. That said, I don’t see how having someone with a sub-.300 OBP in the leadoff spot is helping, and/or how Verdugo wouldn’t be a better fit for the role.

 

My take is that Hernández should be shuffled to the bottom half of the order while everyone else above him is bumped up one spot with Verdugo manning the leadoff spot.

 

Mathematically it's impossible for Kike to get more plate appearances with lineup of Verdugo, JD, Xander, Devers, Renfroe, Kike versus Kike, Verdugo, JD, Xander,Devers and Renfroe. Just first grade math. But if batting order doesn't matter why don't we just put the group 6-9 in batting order?

Edited June 2, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

And it takes even more patience than usual this year, with pitching dominating like we haven't seen for a long time.

 

Plus, a few other factors:

 

A 60 game season, last year never allowed some players to shake off the rust, work on faults, get over an injury or "find a groove."

 

Younger players had no minor league games to play.

 

The change in balls used.

 

[dgalehouse]

Someone else already did sign him. The Sox after the Cubs designated him for assignment and he's now back in Boston on a minor league deal, so we're not going to lose him if he's not added to the 40 man.

 

No need to add him, this is not the same Workman, he's lost velocity and he's a reclamation project.

 

It would be a pretty cool story if Pivetta continues to play well, Seabold develops into a stud, and Workman finds himself and is a staple in our pen at some point. That would make that trade amazing. I don't have a lot of confidence in Workman contributing to this team any time soon but I'm rooting for him.

 

Workman opted out of the minor league contract. Sox have to promote him or he becomes a free agent again. That is my understanding of the situation at present.

[mvp 78]

Workman opted out of the minor league contract. Sox have to promote him or he becomes a free agent again. That is my understanding of the situation at present.

 

Yes, he has chosen to opt out. It's up to the Sox to promote him or let him go elsewhere.

[Hugh2]

Workman opted out of the minor league contract. Sox have to promote him or he becomes a free agent again. That is my understanding of the situation at present.

 

Yup, I just saw that, I missed the news yesterday. My bad.

[mvp 78]

Workman still in Worcester today.

 

@JoeyMacHockey

Workman finished his bullpen and respectfully declined to comment on his status. “Too much stuff going on,” he said.

[moonslav59]

Just cut Brewer loose.

 

Or, Wilson, Brennan.

[notin]

Just cut Brewer loose.

 

Or, Wilson, Brennan.

 

The Sox need to trade Brewer to Milwaukee. In their entire history, Milwaukee has never had a player named “Brewer”. That needs to change...

[moonslav59]

The Sox need to trade Brewer to Milwaukee. In their entire history, Milwaukee has never had a player named “Brewer”. That needs to change...

 

Bernie Brewer- the mascot.

[Kimmi]

Always bring a smile to our faces when the mighty Yankees have some flaws. Not as perfect as some think. They are really struggling with hitting. I thought their lineup would hit 400 homers.

 

I love reading Yankees headlines when the Yankees are losing.

[Larry Cook]

I love reading Yankees headlines when the Yankees are losing.

 

Amen brother! Great observation!

[notin]

Bernie Brewer- the mascot.

 

Not the same.

 

In fact if Brewer went to Milwaukee, he would be the first player in MLB history whose last name matched his team moniker aka the the first player ever with his last name on both front and back of his jersey. Unless Robbie Ray gets dealt to Tampa first.

 

The closest to date would be when Gary Redus played in Cincinnati, as he had just one extra letter...

[Maxbialystock]

Not the same.

 

In fact if Brewer went to Milwaukee, he would be the first player in MLB history whose last name matched his team moniker aka the the first player ever with his last name on both front and back of his jersey. Unless Robbie Ray gets dealt to Tampa first.

 

The closest to date would be when Gary Redus played in Cincinnati, as he had just one extra letter...

 

The Rays would be my candidate for being the first team with a player whose name matched theirs.

[Nick]

Good Morning you all

 

Looking at the bright side

 

Richards, Pivetta and Perez have pitched well and beyond expectations. It they were our numbers 3, 4 and 5, we'd be in great shape.

 

Chris Sale is progressing, expected to pitch this year.

 

Brasier is close to going on a rehab assignment.

 

180 from 2020.

[oldtimer]

Good Morning you all

 

Looking at the bright side

 

Richards, Pivetta and Perez have pitched well and beyond expectations. It they were our numbers 3, 4 and 5, we'd be in great shape.

 

Chris Sale is progressing, expected to pitch this year.

 

Brasier is close to going on a rehab assignment.

 

180 from 2020.

 

Can any of hem hit?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Not the same.

 

In fact if Brewer went to Milwaukee, he would be the first player in MLB history whose last name matched his team moniker aka the the first player ever with his last name on both front and back of his jersey. Unless Robbie Ray gets dealt to Tampa first.

 

The closest to date would be when Gary Redus played in Cincinnati, as he had just one extra letter...

 

Another player one letter off in Boston was Pablo SUX (there's probably more in that family, at least one or two a year, except 2020 when it was an entire family reunion, catered by Bogaerts and Verdugo).

[moonslav59]

Good Morning you all

 

Looking at the bright side

 

Richards, Pivetta and Perez have pitched well and beyond expectations. It they were our numbers 3, 4 and 5, we'd be in great shape.

 

Chris Sale is progressing, expected to pitch this year.

 

Brasier is close to going on a rehab assignment.

 

180 from 2020.

 

Good to hear a positive post.

 

To me, the best part about our roster construction and draft position is how we are set up very nicely for the short and long term future.

[Hugh2]

What can we realistically expect from Sale coming back? I think it's reasonable to assume he could be pitching like an Ace by the end of the year but coming back from TJ what type of a work load can we expect him to carry into October?

 

I just don't think we will have the strong #1 #2 punch a team needs to be a world series contender, and definitely not if Erod can't figure it out.

[moonslav59]

What can we realistically expect from Sale coming back? I think it's reasonable to assume he could be pitching like an Ace by the end of the year but coming back from TJ what type of a work load can we expect him to carry into October?

 

I just don't think we will have the strong #1 #2 punch a team needs to be a world series contender, and definitely not if Erod can't figure it out.

 

To me, I’m not counting on anything from Sale, except maybe a few innings of decent pitching. Our best shot at doing something special is for ERod to return to 2018-19 form, or Eovaldi to stay healthy all year and pitch like 2018.

 

This assumes no great drop off from the other 3 starters.

 

We can add a bat and pen arm at or before the deadline and still stay under the tax line.

[Hugh2]

To me, I’m not counting on anything from Sale, except maybe a few innings of decent pitching. Our best shot at doing something special is for ERod to return to 2018-19 form, or Eovaldi to stay healthy all year and pitch like 2018.

 

This assumes no great drop off from the other 3 starters.

 

We can add a bat and pen arm at or before the deadline and still stay under the tax line.

 

 

I don't want to sound like I'm complaining about this team winning but it almost would make things easier if this team was not exceeding expectations up until now. If you don't seriously think you can compete, it's easier to let Dalbec and Franchy fly through the year and see if they can put it together. It would make the bullpen situation with Whitlock more manageable and we wouldn't have talk of rushing Casas and Duran. Although I think we can justify seeing Duran at some point this year no matter what, Casas is the guy who is a little further away.

 

An obvious place we can improve is 2B, and we could make a trade for Adam Frazier.

 

I think if we're being realistic about this year, then trading away top prospects for a rental arm is not a good decision. I'd rather bring in a guy who has at least another year of control. Not sure who that is, but be a fun thought experiment this weekend to look at who might be available during the trade deadline, which may be more clear in 4-6 weeks from now.

 

I think we can pick up a bat at the deadline.

[Bellhorn04]

The Red Sox are nearly dead last in baseball in drawing walks, with 144. Dodgers lead with 250. Yankees 226. Rays 224.

[notin]

The Rays would be my candidate for being the first team with a player whose name matched theirs.

 

Well, currently they could add Robbie Ray or Corey Ray at some point. But Colten Brewer could be available sooner than either of them...