A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[notin]

Pe3titioning against Duran again?

 

Like it or not, I'd be surprised if Duran gets added to the 40 man roster until at a minimum, the Super Two deadline passes. Not sure when this is, but Duran would need at least 86 days of service time, which would put his call up just after July 10, and has to be in the top 22% for total service of all eligible players.

 

So if the Sox are as high on Duran as many of you are, unless there is a glut of upcoming rookies, I would suspect we wait at least 5 more weeks. And given how little actual quality minor league time he has above A Ball, it's hard to argue that is service time manipulation...

[Bellhorn04]

Hey, we have this dude in AAA, right now, who has 1.109 OPS after 20ABs. He even has some ML experience and is said to have “all the tools.”

 

Name: Franchy Cordero

 

In other words, the fact you're raking in AAA for a little stretch doesn't mean you won't be eaten alive by major league pitchers (and defense).

[mvp 78]

Like it or not, I'd be surprised if Duran gets added to the 40 man roster until at a minimum, the Super Two deadline passes. Not sure when this is, but Duran would need at least 86 days of service time, which would put his call up just after July 10, and has to be in the top 22% for total service of all eligible players.

 

So if the Sox are as high on Duran as many of you are, unless there is a glut of upcoming rookies, I would suspect we wait at least 5 more weeks. And given how little actual quality minor league time he has above A Ball, it's hard to argue that is service time manipulation...

 

Today is the 65th day of the MLB calendar year. I think it's the last day before super two guys can be called up.

[notin]

Today is the 65th day of the MLB calendar year. I think it's the last day before super two guys can be called up.

 

You might be right. I used some service time rule I found and counted backwards to get a date.

 

If it’s today (technically tomorrow), that expedites when Duran can be called up, but they still might wait.

 

One way to know for certain is to see when the Rays call up Wander Franco. They will do that the day after the Super Two deadline...

[notin]

In other words, the fact you're raking in AAA for a little stretch doesn't mean you won't be eaten alive by major league pitchers (and defense).

 

And it never did...

[moonslav59]

In other words, the fact you're raking in AAA for a little stretch doesn't mean you won't be eaten alive by major league pitchers (and defense).

 

Yes, and it could happen to young prospects raking in AAA, too.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yes, and it could happen to young prospects raking in AAA, too.

 

Some possible advantages that can help good hitting prospects called up to the bigs: better visuals ("batter's eyes", better lighting), more consistent (theoretically) strikes to swing at, bigger cheering crowds, easier travel modes and durations, more meal money (or a raise) that affords better meals and nutrition, better practice and medical resources, better training facilities, better groupies...

[notin]

Some possible advantages that can help good hitting prospects called up to the bigs: better visuals ("batter's eyes", better lighting), more consistent (theoretically) strikes to swing at, bigger cheering crowds, easier travel modes and durations, more meal money (or a raise) that affords better meals and nutrition, better practice and medical resources, better training facilities, better groupies...

 

... better roids...

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

... better roids...

 

"medical resources"

[notin]

"medical resources"

 

Fair enough...

[moonslav59]

Some possible advantages that can help good hitting prospects called up to the bigs: better visuals ("batter's eyes", better lighting), more consistent (theoretically) strikes to swing at, bigger cheering crowds, easier travel modes and durations, more meal money (or a raise) that affords better meals and nutrition, better practice and medical resources, better training facilities, better groupies...

 

...and more pitches near the strike zone.

[Nick]

Per MassLive

 

BOSTON — Boston Red Sox relief pitcher Ryan Brasier was struck in the side of the head with a line drive during a simulated game Friday morning in Fort Myers, Fla.

 

He was taken to the hospital where he is in stable condition and will be under observation for 24 hours, Red Sox manager Alex Cora said during a pregame Zoom availability Friday.

 

“He’s stable. We’re going to have more information throughout the day and tomorrow. From what I just ask from you guys is pray for him and your thoughts for his family,” Cora said.

 

It's probably good thing that we picked up Workman. Giving up solo home runs don't bother me. It's the two, three run homers as result of walks/errors that will absolutely kill you.

[Nick]

Per MLB.com

 

Aaron Hicks’ likely season-ending wrist injury means the Yankees -- who traded Mike Tauchman to the Giants last month -- are currently starting Brett Gardner and his .559 OPS in center field. Not good. Where could they turn to find a new center fielder?

 

Ketel Marte of the D-backs would be the best solution, though he is signed through 2022 (with affordable club options for 2023 and ’24), so the price tag to acquire him could be more than Yankees general manager Brian Cashman is willing to pay.

 

Pittsburgh’s Bryan Reynolds is another player who could be on the trade block, though he’s arbitration-eligible for four years beginning this winter, so he won’t come cheap, either.

 

Starling Marte fits the rental category, but he figures to draw interest from a number of clubs, which could spark a bidding war that drives up his price, too.

 

Michael A. Taylor has been playing well for the Royals after signing a one-year, $1.75 million deal last offseason. Kansas City has been hovering around .500 to remain in the mix in the AL Central, but he could prove to be a cheap alternative if he becomes available.

 

Bottom line: finding a new center fielder won’t be an easy task for the Yankees, but if they believe such a move is necessary, there are options out there if they’re willing to pay the freight.

 

Do we have a center fielder we can trade? Poor Yankees.

[Nick]

Per MLBTradeRumors,

 

The Red Sox will acquire outfield prospect Freddy Valdez from the Mets as one of the three players to be named later from February’s three-team Andrew Benintendi trade, reports Chad Jennings of The Athletic (Twitter link). The Red Sox and Royals will reportedly settle on the two players heading from Kansas City to Boston within the next week or so.

 

Sorry if its been posted already.

 

He was the 14th ranked prospect for the Mets. He's 19 years old.

Edited June 4, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

Per mlb.com

 

Ranked as MLB Pipeline’s No. 29 international prospect during the 2018 signing period, Valdez inked a deal for $1.45 million with the Mets that July 2. He was big for the class then and that remains the case as he stands in at a listed 6-foot-3, 212 pounds. The Dominican Republic native showed off some power and ability to take a walk in his first taste of the pros in the Dominican Summer League in 2019, hitting .268/.357/.432 over 57 games. That prompted a first stateside move to the Gulf Coast League that season, and he returned to the U.S. for the instructional league last fall.

 

The Mets like Valdez for his above-average hand speed that can result in some impressive exit velocities when he makes a solid connection. He also shows an impressive eye at the plate for someone his age, though he can get too passive at times. His swing can also get long, which holds down the overall hit tool. Valdez is a solid runner but is decidedly a corner outfielder, due to his size and struggles at times with routes and jumps. His arm is a potential above-average tool, though that too will take work as he works on his release to make the most of his arm strength.

 

There was plenty to build on for Valdez in 2020, and that will continue to be the case for him when he returns to game play in 2021. The power and arm make him a standard corner-outfield candidate at the top level, and the other holes in his game could be improved with experience.

[moonslav59]

Per mlb.com

 

Ranked as MLB Pipeline’s No. 29 international prospect during the 2018 signing period, Valdez inked a deal for $1.45 million with the Mets that July 2. He was big for the class then and that remains the case as he stands in at a listed 6-foot-3, 212 pounds. The Dominican Republic native showed off some power and ability to take a walk in his first taste of the pros in the Dominican Summer League in 2019, hitting .268/.357/.432 over 57 games. That prompted a first stateside move to the Gulf Coast League that season, and he returned to the U.S. for the instructional league last fall.

 

The Mets like Valdez for his above-average hand speed that can result in some impressive exit velocities when he makes a solid connection. He also shows an impressive eye at the plate for someone his age, though he can get too passive at times. His swing can also get long, which holds down the overall hit tool. Valdez is a solid runner but is decidedly a corner outfielder, due to his size and struggles at times with routes and jumps. His arm is a potential above-average tool, though that too will take work as he works on his release to make the most of his arm strength.

 

There was plenty to build on for Valdez in 2020, and that will continue to be the case for him when he returns to game play in 2021. The power and arm make him a standard corner-outfield candidate at the top level, and the other holes in his game could be improved with experience.

 

BTV has him valued at 2.4.

 

K Lee was valued over 11 when the deal was made and is now at 8.4.

 

We also got Winckowski from the Mets, and he is rated at 3.3 but is doing very well, right now.

[moonslav59]

MLBTR...

 

Freddy Valdez is generally regarded as one of the Mets’ top 20 prospects, ranking 13th at The Athletic, 14th at MLB.com, 17th at Baseball America and 18th at FanGraphs. FanGraphs’ Eric Longenhagen calls Valdez an “absolute behemoth of a corner outfield prospect” with “thunderous” power, likening him to Guardians slugger Franmil Reyes. The Athletic’s Keith Law writes that Valdez has “huge” power with above-average speed and a plus arm, though many scouting reports on Valdez raise questions about his hit tool and his defensive future.

 

Obviously, given Valdez’s age and the fact that he’s yet to even take a single at-bat in A-ball, he’s years from factoring into the Red Sox’ big league plans. On some levels, there figure to be comparisons to another player the Red Sox received in this trade: Franchy Cordero. Valdez, by all accounts, is a physical specimen at a young age with a tantalizing set of loud tools but has a ways to go before scouts will be sold that those tools can translate at the Major League level. As far as lower-level lottery tickets go, he’s the type that comes with considerable upside but also a fair bit of risk.

 

Valdez ought to slot into the middle tier of Boston’s farm system. He’ll join the aforementioned Cordero (acquired from the Royals) and minor league right-hander Josh Winckowski (acquired from the Mets) as the third of five players the Red Sox will eventually net from trading Benintendi.

[oldtimer]

In the Olympic qualifiers today USA beat Canada 10/1. Duran went three for 5 with a double and triple and Casas went 1 for 4 with a double. They are in the super round and need to one more win the get the Americas bid.

[Nick]

 

Pretty Impressive Pop Up....

[Nick]

Will 3 year, $30M be enough to sign Barnes, assuming he finishes the year the way he started?

[Nick]

In the Olympic qualifiers today USA beat Canada 10/1. Duran went three for 5 with a double and triple and Casas went 1 for 4 with a double. They are in the super round and need to one more win the get the Americas bid.

 

Soooo, he didn't go 5-5 against a Canadian pitcher? He sucks!!!

 

Just kidding. Thanks for the update. It has to be great experience for both.

[Nick]

Great outing by Sawamura. He has great stuff.

 

Assume all the club options are exercised for next year and start at current year tax payroll of $205M.

 

2021 Free Agents

$8.9 Ottavino

$8.3 E Rod

$4.5 Barnes

$3.0 Marwin

$1.0 Workman

$14.8 Pedey, Beni, Ottavino-Net

$40.5 off the books

 

$205M less $40M=$165M Assuming the top line of $210M for 2022, Sox will have $45M to spend.

 

Assuming Sale comes back healthy, how would you spend that $45M? Ignore the arbitration raises, Sox will go over the limit to take care of it, $20M, depends largely on the raises we'll need for Devers, Verdugo and other arbitration guys.

 

I maybe inclined to spend on a big time ace and Barnes, with 'go for it' mentally for 2022. $45M should take care of it. It may also be enough to acquire $1M-$2M bit players. That leaves us having to replace Ottavino internally.

 

I doubt Bloom would do that....I can only dream.

 

2022 World Series chase with Verlander, Sale, Eovaldi and Richards. You still have Pivetta and Perez.

 

Barnes, Darwinzon, Houck and others dealing from the pen.

 

I would do this knowing Price money comes off and Eovaldi and Richards will become free agents after 2022, releasing $43M of spending. Re-sign Richards and replace Eovaldi internally.

Edited June 5, 2021 by Nick

[Hugh2]

Will 3 year, $30M be enough to sign Barnes, assuming he finishes the year the way he started?

 

Kimbrel signed 3/42 2 years ago. More recently Liam Hendricks signs a 3/54 million deal.

 

I think if you want to keep Barnes you're looking at 3/60

[Hugh2]

remember JDM has an opt out after this year, and with the season he's having one has to assume he will opt out.

 

If you spend big next offseason, you need to save some money for Bogaerts who will likely opt out after the 2022 season. That or you let him walk. I would also want to start thinking about locking up Devers.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Kimbrel signed 3/42 2 years ago. More recently Liam Hendricks signs a 3/54 million deal.

 

I think if you want to keep Barnes you're looking at 3/60

 

It's still 50-50 Barnes gets traded in the next month, no matter where the Sox stand. He's the one chip that could net a really good prospect... and the next three-year contract offer from Bloom in Boston will be his first.

[Hugh2]

It's still 50-50 Barnes gets traded in the next month, no matter where the Sox stand. He's the one chip that could net a really good prospect... and the next three-year contract offer from Bloom in Boston will be his first.

 

If you're in playoff contention you don't trade your closer. Right now I'd say it's more like 5-95. Let the Sox be 10 games under .500 in two months then maybe it's greater than 50%

[Bellhorn04]

It's still 50-50 Barnes gets traded in the next month, no matter where the Sox stand. He's the one chip that could net a really good prospect... and the next three-year contract offer from Bloom in Boston will be his first.

 

If you're in playoff contention you don't trade your closer. Right now I'd say it's more like 5-95. Let the Sox be 10 games under .500 in two months then maybe it's greater than 50%

 

Yeah, if we stay in contention trading Barnes cannot possibly happen.

[Hugh2]

Yeah, if we stay in contention trading Barnes cannot possibly happen.

 

yeah 5-95 was generous, sucking could change things though.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Yeah, if we stay in contention trading Barnes cannot possibly happen.

 

But at the trade deadline of a playoff year in '19, Bloom and the second-place Rays traded Ryne Stanek -- a top reliever and their main opener -- for what turned out to be an upgrade in Nick Anderson.

[Bellhorn04]

But at the trade deadline of a playoff year in '19, Bloom and the second-place Rays traded Ryne Stanek -- a top reliever and their main opener -- for what turned out to be an upgrade in Nick Anderson.

 

The way Barnes is pitching, I don't think even Bloom could upgrade from him, not in a deadline deal.