A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[notin]

I'm psyched the Sox swept Tampa, but also can't shake this perspective: the '21 Rays pitching staff includes Mazza and Springs, two of the worst of the '20 Red Sox from the worst pitching staff in team history. Time will tell if the Rays really are magical in getting the most out of other club's castoffs... or really desperate.

 

But yes their trade for those two while giving up a potentially decent catcher does seem questionable and looked like the dumbest trade of 2021 until the Yankees acquired Rougned Odor...

[Bellhorn04]

Mazza was nowhere near one of the worst pitchers on that staff. He was actually one of the better ones, which is the real tragedy...

 

"There is no tragedy in tanking."

[moonslav59]

"There is no tragedy in tanking."

 

In this new era of young prospect acquisition restrictions placed on both rich and winning teams, tanking might be the best way to build up a depleted farm.

 

You get higher picks and more slot money. (Top players seeking higher bonuses no longer fall to the bottom of the first round.)

You get more IFA money to spend- an area we badly need to improve on.

[oldtimer]

Every game is important and there will be tough matchups coming down the line. If there is a chance of making the playoffs, we need to win most of the games in which we are favored. We showed quality and resilience against the Rays, things missing against the O's. My question is why the team didn't seem ready to play during the first 3 outings. We can't get those games back and it's a shame we started that slow. Was there something lacking in Cora's preparation of the team?

[Bellhorn04]

Every game is important and there will be tough matchups coming down the line. If there is a chance of making the playoffs, we need to win most of the games in which we are favored. We showed quality and resilience against the Rays, things missing against the O's. My question is why the team didn't seem ready to play during the first 3 outings. We can't get those games back and it's a shame we started that slow. Was there something lacking in Cora's preparation of the team?

 

No, I think if Cora's preparation was bad, we don't win 3 against the Rays.

 

There's a lot of randomness in baseball. Yankees lost to Baltimore last night and the Jays have lost 2 in a row to Texas, and they're supposed to be a lot better than us.

 

It's a long season.

[notin]

No, I think if Cora's preparation was bad, we don't win 3 against the Rays.

 

There's a lot of randomness in baseball. Yankees lost to Baltimore last night and the Jays have lost 2 in a row to Texas, and they're supposed to be a lot better than us.

 

It's a long season.

 

Even bad baseball teams are still comprised of some of the best players in the world. Yes, you want to beat up on the worst teams, but unlike in other sports, those "worst teams" are still going to win about 40% of the time...

[mvp 78]

Mazza was nowhere near one of the worst pitchers on that staff. He was actually one of the better ones, which is the real tragedy...

 

This is true.

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Since the start of 2019, there are 18 catchers with 500+ PAs. Vázquez entered today ranked third in fWAR (5.2), behind only Realmuto (7.6) and Grandal (7.2).

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

The Red Sox may have been ready to start the season, just not ready to face John Means' 83 mph change-up. Means' Opening Day outing may turn out to be the best start vs. Boston all season (we hope), and along with Cesar Valdez' 78 mph change-up, may have just put Sox batters in a temporary funk.

 

If you don't believe me, Means and Valdez also silenced the Greatest Batting Order in the history of Never in the Bronx just last night...

[Kimmi]

No, I think if Cora's preparation was bad, we don't win 3 against the Rays.

 

There's a lot of randomness in baseball. Yankees lost to Baltimore last night and the Jays have lost 2 in a row to Texas, and they're supposed to be a lot better than us.

 

It's a long season.

 

Randomness in baseball is one of my favorite topics.

 

Interestingly, I was just reading this morning that it takes 67 games for a team's win-loss record to reach the break even point where skill accounts for 50% of that record and randomness accounts for 50%. Prior to that point, a team's record is based more on randomness than it is on skill.

 

Someone asked the question about what we can take away from the opening series against the Os. Short answer: absolutely nothing.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

This is true.

 

Maybe Mazza wasn't "one of the worst" -- I should parse my adjectives since there are posters ready to pounce on every single word -- but his WHIP was worse than Osich, Covey, Triggs and Tapia, among others, and he was definitely on the long list of Bloom's bargain bin failures.

 

He is also immortalized in my living room for one moment: giving up the longest home run my son and I have ever seen on live TV (495' to Ronald Acuna). When history recaps the 2020 Sox, this will be the clip Fox and ESPN show over and over.

[notin]

Maybe Mazza wasn't "one of the worst" -- I should parse my adjectives since there are posters ready to pounce on every single word -- but his WHIP was worse than Osich, Covey, Triggs and Tapia, among others, and he was definitely on the long list of Bloom's bargain bin failures.

 

He is also immortalized in my living room for one moment: giving up the longest home run my son and I have ever seen on live TV (495' to Ronald Acuna). When history recaps the 2020 Sox, this will be the clip Fox and ESPN shows over and over.

 

As you are griping about parsing over word choices, I have to say "immortalized in my living room" doesn't strike me as the most extreme predecessor to an insult I have ever come across...

[moonslav59]

Randomness in baseball is one of my favorite topics.

 

Interestingly, I was just reading this morning that it takes 67 games for a team's win-loss record to reach the break even point where skill accounts for 50% of that record and randomness accounts for 50%. Prior to that point, a team's record is based more on randomness than it is on skill.

 

Someone asked the question about what we can take away from the opening series against the Os. Short answer: absolutely nothing.

 

That pretty much shows the 2020 season of 60 games should not really be held against someone like JD.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

As you are griping about parsing over word choices, I have to say "immortalized in my living room" doesn't strike me as the most extreme predecessor to an insult I have ever come across...

 

I'm not insulting the guy, but he actually gave up an unforgettable HR in a forgettable season. Some posters choose to actually talk Sox here -- in the language of fans at the ballpark or like at a bar -- about good and bad times watching the Red Sox. For most of us, the threads spark memories we share in the discussions. There are only a few here who constantly pick on anything they disagree with.

[jad]

I'm not insulting the guy, but he actually gave up an unforgettable HR in a forgettable season. Some posters choose to actually talk Sox here -- in the language of fans at the ballpark or like at a bar -- about good and bad times watching the Red Sox. For most of us, the threads spark memories we share in the discussions. There are only a few here who constantly pick on anything they disagree with.

 

Agree entirely. And it's time, with some reluctance, to exercise the IGNORE function on those posters who, despite their knowledge, seem only interested in starting arguments.

[notin]

I'm not insulting the guy, but he actually gave up an unforgettable HR in a forgettable season. Some posters choose to actually talk Sox here -- in the language of fans at the ballpark or like at a bar -- about good and bad times watching the Red Sox. For most of us, the threads spark memories we share in the discussions. There are only a few here who constantly pick on anything they disagree with.

 

Hey, I think the phrase "immortalized in my living room" is classic.

 

But also Mazza was the one bargain bin who did look like he might stick, much to my chagrin. For most of the off-season, soxprospects.com had projected him in the 2021 rotation, not even in the bullpen. His ERA was reasonable (4.80), but his FIP was even better (4.26). Still, I was very glad when he got DFA'd, and even happier when Tampa wanted to trade for him, instead of just waiting for him to be waived so they could claim him for nothing. And even happier than that when it looked like they gave the Sox back a viable prospect as opposed to some sort of Josh Tobias organizational filler...

[moonslav59]

Man-O-Man we sure had some duds, last year. Bloom's penchant for finding cheap diamonds in the rough failed miserably, last year.

 

Even some of the guys that had decent seasons "by the numbers" seemed to show they were not the players we want sticking around- like Mazza & Springs. Even the one that did stick, Valdez, would probably pretty close to the DFA bubble, if he were out of options.

 

Here's a reminder of just how bad it was:

 

IP Pitcher ERA/WHIP

43 Weber 4.40/1.349 Still here

29 Godley 8.16/1.953 DFA'd

26 Brewer 5.61/1.753 Still here

20 Springs 7.08/1.820 Traded

20 Brice 5.95/1.525 Still here

16 Osich 5.74/1.340 Traded

14 Covey 7.07/1.429 DFA

14 Kickham 7.71/1.857 DFA

13 Stock 4.73/1.950 DFA

13 Walden 9.45/2.400 Still here

11 K Hart 15.55/3.091 Still here

9 M Hall 18.69/3.115 Still here

8 Triggs 4.50/1.375 DFA

7 Taylor 9.82/1.636 Still here

5 Lever 21.21/4.286 DFA

4 Tapia 2.08/1.385 DFA

That's over250 IP!

 

Did Okay:

30 Valdez 3.26/1.615 Still here

30 Mazza 4.80/1.633 Traded

Another 60 IP.

 

All together, this was about 60% of all our IP, last year!

 

And, I didn't even count Perez's pretty bad season (62 IP 4.50/1.339), Hembree (10 IP 5.59/1.241 and Workman 4.05/1.800.

 

[mvp 78]

Here's a reminder of just how bad it was:

 

IP Pitcher ERA/WHIP

43 Weber 4.40/1.349 Still here

29 Godley 8.16/1.953 DFA'd

26 Brewer 5.61/1.753 Still here

20 Springs 7.08/1.820 Traded

20 Brice 5.95/1.525 Still here

16 Osich 5.74/1.340 Traded

14 Covey 7.07/1.429 DFA

14 Kickham 7.71/1.857 DFA

13 Stock 4.73/1.950 DFA

13 Walden 9.45/2.400 Still here

11 K Hart 15.55/3.091 Still here

9 M Hall 18.69/3.115 Still here

8 Triggs 4.50/1.375 DFA

7 Taylor 9.82/1.636 Still here

5 Lever 21.21/4.286 DFA

4 Tapia 2.08/1.385 DFA

That's over250 IP!

 

 

 

250 Innings in a 60 game season. On average, we'd see those guys 4 innings every game. Yuck!

[dgalehouse]

Randomness in baseball is one of my favorite topics.

 

Interestingly, I was just reading this morning that it takes 67 games for a team's win-loss record to reach the break even point where skill accounts for 50% of that record and randomness accounts for 50%. Prior to that point, a team's record is based more on randomness than it is on skill.

 

Someone asked the question about what we can take away from the opening series against the Os. Short answer: absolutely nothing.

 

The randomness of baseball helps to show just how good the 2018 Red Sox team really was. 108 wins in the regular season. 11 - 3 in the post season against three really good opponents. It doesn't get much better than that.

[moonslav59]

250 Innings in a 60 game season. On average, we'd see those guys 4 innings every game. Yuck!

 

If you count Mazza & Valdez, it's 5 IP per game.

 

We should replace those IP with...

 

ERod

Richards

Sale

Ottavino

Andriese

Whitlock

Sawamura

 

and more from

Houck

Pivetta

D Hern

[Nick]

Another clean outing by Rule 5 Whitlock. 2 IP, 3 K, 0 H, 0 BB.

 

He's going to be my favorite pitcher

 

Because we got him from the Yankees for almost nothing...something like $25K...

 

And we'll have six years of team control. He will start for us at some point this year. Book it.

[Bellhorn04]

Another clean outing by Rule 5 Whitlock. 2 IP, 3 K, 0 H, 0 BB.

 

He's going to be my favorite pitcher

 

Because we got him from the Yankees for almost nothing...something like $25K...

 

And we'll have six years of team control. He will start for us at some point this year. Book it.

 

Bloom plucked 3 Yankee pitching prospects in all. That's amazing. Whitlock is obviously the most exciting of them. The others were German and Ort.

[moonslav59]

Another clean outing by Rule 5 Whitlock. 2 IP, 3 K, 0 H, 0 BB.

 

He's going to be my favorite pitcher

 

Because we got him from the Yankees for almost nothing...something like $25K...

 

And we'll have six years of team control. He will start for us at some point this year. Book it.

 

It would be great to see him do well for us.

 

It doesn't seem so far fetched.

[moonslav59]

I'm hoping some other hitters start to warm up, like Vaz and Devers are.

 

Some interesting aspects of this start are emerging (some of these are ideas I stole from other posters):

 

1. Vaz should DH when needing a rest from catching, and since DH'ing is not really a total rest, maybe he gets a couple more days off from catching over the year.

 

2. Marwin can play many positions, which is great, but he doesn't seem like he's a plus at any of them, but he seems to be starting to hit better. Obviously, Cora likes him from their Astros days together, but the situation needs to be watched.

 

3. Dalbec looks like a fine fielder at 1B. His bat needs to warm-up.

 

4. EHern has gotten off to a rough start- both on D and O. I expect he'll do well over the full season, though.

 

5. Cordero looks good. Stay healthy!

 

6. Verdugo seems to be heating up.

 

7. JD was and still is "the man."

 

8. If Richards does well, his next start, we'll have a happy problem of 6 capable SP'ers all doing well- with Sale coming back at some point, this summer.

 

9. The pen has been superb. I'm expecting a return to norm, but that "norm" may not be as bad as many thought it would be, including me.

 

10. The long guys we have- Whitlock & Andriese could be huge for this team and take the heat off the short guys.

[Bellhorn04]

7. JD was and still is "the man."

 

But you'd still trade him today for nothing but the salary relief, right?

 

(You probably knew this was coming LOL)

[mvp 78]

JD is a big reason they are getting the #4 pick in the draft this season and a big reason they are now in first damn place. Legend.

[Bellhorn04]

JD is a big reason they are getting the #4 pick in the draft this season and a big reason they are now in first damn place. Legend.

 

JD in a Boston uniform:

 

357 games

.304 BA

.946 OPS

88 HR

274 RBI

 

Hard to believe anyone would want to unload him, right? Then again. when Big Papi had his rough stretch there were plenty trying to retire him...

[notin]

250 Innings in a 60 game season. On average, we'd see those guys 4 innings every game. Yuck!

 

The Red Sox as a team last year had only 524 IP. So 250 IP is approximately one half of their season total...

[moonslav59]

But you'd still trade him today for nothing but the salary relief, right?

 

(You probably knew this was coming LOL)

 

At the deadline, maybe. Depends where we are.

 

If he keeps hitting like this, we'll be in the race or his trade value will be higher.

[notin]

JD in a Boston uniform:

 

357 games

.304 BA

.946 OPS

88 HR

274 RBI

 

Hard to believe anyone would want to unload him, right? Then again. when Big Papi had his rough stretch there were plenty trying to retire him...

 

HEy, sometimes a guy just is not as healthy for a season as he was the year before. Any stretch last year where JD had a cold or a tummy ache was magnified because it was such a shortened season. And while he did hit .213, it was only in 211 at bats. The season was about 9 weeks long, and if he averaged just 1.5 more hits per week, the guy would have been hitting .275 and we would have never had this discussion. And if you give JD enough time, he can get those extra 1.5 hits per week. He just didn't get the chance last year.