A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Kimmi]

It would be because of his contract and the ease of finding someone to fill his position, plus prospects coming back.

 

I'm not completely on board with the 'ease of finding someone to fill his position' part, but I agree with the rest. The same reasons we traded Beni.

[notin]

Also, let's not let the people off the hook who said JD HAS NO TRADE VALUE. YOU COULD ONLY TRADE HIM FOR CHRIS DAVIS!

 

Those people were clearly more down on JD than moon or me.

 

to be fair, thjat was assuming not paying JD outright to play somewhere else and therefore required taking back a bad and available contract. I might have been one of those who suggested the type of deals you would have to take back to deal JDM, and I probably mentioned Davis (or not!!!) by name along with a couple others, trying to match up some money. But I never advocated actually trading the guy - just that any deal either meant paying him anyway or taking back crap.

 

Per BTV

 

JDM still has a trade value of -13.7

 

Other similar players

 

Kenley Jansen (-14.8)

David Price (-14.2)

Gregory Polanco (-14.0)

Mike Moustakas (-13.0)

Randal Grichuk (-12.6)

Aaron Hicks (-12.1)

 

Not sure when these were most recently updated...

[mvp 78]

I'm not completely on board with the 'ease of finding someone to fill his position' part, but I agree with the rest. The same reasons we traded Beni.

 

I think we could get one of the guys below to play DH:

 

Catcher: Travis d'Arnaud, Yadier Molina, Buster Posey (club option), Christian Vazquez (club option)

First base: Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Brandon Belt

Second base: Starlin Castro, Cesar Hernandez (club option)

Third base: Nolan Arenado (opt-out), Kris Bryant, Eduardo Escobar, Kyle Seager (club option), José Ramírez (club option)

Shortstop: Javier Báez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Andrelton Simmons, Brandon Crawford

Outfield: Michael Conforto, Tommy Pham, Starling Marte, Kyle Schwarber (mutual option), Eddie Rosario, Corey Dickerson, Nick Castellanos (opt-out), Charlie Blackmon (player option), Andrew McCutchen (club option), Jackie Bradley Jr. (opt-out)

Designated hitter: Jorge Soler, Khris Davis, Nelson Cruz, J.D. Martinez (opt-out)

[notin]

I think we could get one of the guys below to play DH:

 

Catcher: Travis d'Arnaud, Yadier Molina, Buster Posey (club option), Christian Vazquez (club option)

First base: Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Brandon Belt

Second base: Starlin Castro, Cesar Hernandez (club option)

Third base: Nolan Arenado (opt-out), Kris Bryant, Eduardo Escobar, Kyle Seager (club option), José Ramírez (club option)

Shortstop: Javier Báez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Andrelton Simmons, Brandon Crawford

Outfield: Michael Conforto, Tommy Pham, Starling Marte, Kyle Schwarber (mutual option), Eddie Rosario, Corey Dickerson, Nick Castellanos (opt-out), Charlie Blackmon (player option), Andrew McCutchen (club option), Jackie Bradley Jr. (opt-out)

Designated hitter: Jorge Soler, Khris Davis, Nelson Cruz, J.D. Martinez (opt-out)

 

Going with that last name you mentioned. He isn't opting out and he isn't getting traded...

[Bellhorn04]

I think we could get one of the guys below to play DH:

 

Catcher: Travis d'Arnaud, Yadier Molina, Buster Posey (club option), Christian Vazquez (club option)

First base: Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Brandon Belt

Second base: Starlin Castro, Cesar Hernandez (club option)

Third base: Nolan Arenado (opt-out), Kris Bryant, Eduardo Escobar, Kyle Seager (club option), José Ramírez (club option)

Shortstop: Javier Báez, Carlos Correa, Corey Seager, Trevor Story, Andrelton Simmons, Brandon Crawford

Outfield: Michael Conforto, Tommy Pham, Starling Marte, Kyle Schwarber (mutual option), Eddie Rosario, Corey Dickerson, Nick Castellanos (opt-out), Charlie Blackmon (player option), Andrew McCutchen (club option), Jackie Bradley Jr. (opt-out)

Designated hitter: Jorge Soler, Khris Davis, Nelson Cruz, J.D. Martinez (opt-out)

 

JBJ, huh? Sure, we could get anybody to play DH. Who cares if they're a .750 OPS or a .950 OPS hitter? What's 200 points of OPS?

[mvp 78]

JBJ, huh? Sure, we could get anybody to play DH. Who cares if they're a .750 OPS or a .950 OPS hitter? What's 200 points of OPS?

 

Of that list, you complained about JBJ and not Molina?

[Bellhorn04]

Of that list, you complained about JBJ and not Molina?

 

I had numerous options.

[mvp 78]

I had numerous options.

 

I posted the entire offensive FA class of 2022. I'm sure Bloom could go through that list and find someone to replace JD or move an in house option to DH and replace that fielding position with a FA.

[moonslav59]

We are not trading JD. We will need him for our playoff run this year, not to mention next year.

 

I never said we will or might.

 

I was giving my opinion, and I'm not for trading him right now.

 

He also has an unseen value to this team as a leader who models self restraint and an incredible focus and determination (grit) to become a better player. That is something immeasurable.

[Bellhorn04]

I posted the entire offensive FA class of 2022. I'm sure Bloom could go through that list and find someone to replace JD or move an in house option to DH and replace that fielding position with a FA.

 

Bloom isn't here, though. Maybe you could take a stab at it with real names and numbers.

[mvp 78]

Bloom isn't here, though. Maybe you could take a stab at it with real names and numbers.

 

No.

[moonslav59]

We don't need Bloom here to know he'll be spending large next winter.

 

The only question is, will it be big on just a few players or spread out over many players.

 

How many positions will be filled from within the system may determine some of that.

[Nick]

The team is set for 2021.

 

Couple of things.

 

According to Cot's, JD had two opt years after 2019 and 2020, not 2021. He can't opt out. I trust Cot's.

 

JD's cost is already baked in for 2021 and we're still below the cap.

 

There's no point in doing anything with JD. We need a DH and he's here for two years.

 

We've thrown much mud on the wall...the biggest one being Richards' $10M deal.

 

Let's hope some of it stick and bring some clarity to the future.

 

There's $23M available between contracts of Ottavino, Richards and Perez in addition to $13.75M from Pedey's contract expiring after this year. That's $37M along with another $8.3M from E Rod's contract, bringing the total to about $45M.

 

We should be able to extend E Rod and acquire another top line, proven pitcher for $45M. Matt Barnes can be retained to be our closer. Incremental free agent cost for Barnes will be $5M or less. (to what he's making).

 

Sale, E Rod, Eovaldi, Pivetta, $20M guy, Whitlock and Houck should be formidable rotation for 2022. Two of them can be jettisoned to the bullpen.

 

Our bats may not need much of an upgrade for 2022.

 

We're 4-3, a half of game up on Yankees. Life is good.

Edited April 9, 2021 by Nick

[notin]

I think we could get one of the guys below to play DH:

 

Catcher: Buster Posey (club option), Christian Vazquez (club option)

First base: Freddie Freeman, Anthony Rizzo, Brandon Belt

Second base:

Third base: Nolan Arenado (opt-out), Kris Bryant, Eduardo Escobar, Kyle Seager (club option), José Ramírez (club option)

Shortstop:

Outfield: Michael Conforto, Tommy Pham, Starling Marte, Kyle Schwarber (mutual option), Eddie Rosario, Corey Dickerson, Nick Castellanos (opt-out), C

Designated hitter: Jorge Soler, Khris Davis, Nelson Cruz, J.D. Martinez (opt-out)

 

A slightly edited version that takes out the non-DH candidates...

[moonslav59]

To switch towards maybe a more realistic discussion about who could be signed, this winter. Here is one recent list of the top FAs:

 

1. Greinke (37) At least he won't get a long term deal.

2. Verlander (37) Another shorter deal.

3. Scherzer (36) Maybe 1-2 years more than G & V get.

4. Kershaw (32) Hard to see the Dodgers letting him slip away.

5. Syndergaard (28) Young enough for a long deal

6. Rizzo (31) Do we need a 1Bman?

7. Belt (32) I would not sign him, even if we needed a 1Bman.

8. Freeman (31) Just say no to 1Bmen.

9. Conforto (27) Depends on how our young Of'ers are looking.

10. Kris Bryant (29) 3B/LF- got 'em covered.

11. Correa (26) In meat of prime, but we have Bogey (or do we, long term?)

12. Baez (28) Another SS.

13. T Story (28) Again!

14. Seager (26) and again!

 

Nobody really jumps off the page.

 

Others at possible positions of need:

 

SP: Lance Lynn, Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman, Corey Kluber, Eduardo Rodriguez, Dylan Bundy, James Paxton, Robbie Ray

 

RP: Kenley Jansen, Trevor Rosenthal, Brad Hand, Andrew Miller, Jeurys Familia, Archie Bradley, Raisel Iglesias, Adam Ottavino, Kirby Yates

 

OF: Tommy Pham, Starling Marte, Kyle Schwarber (mutual option), Eddie Rosario, Corey Dickerson, Nick Castellanos (opt-out)

 

2B: Starlin Castro

 

Edited April 9, 2021 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

To switch towards maybe a more realistic discussion about who could be signed, this winter. Here is one recent list of the top FAs:

 

1. Greinke (37) At least he won't get a long term deal.

2. Verlander (37) Another shorter deal.

3. Scherzer (36) Maybe 1-2 years more than G & V get.

4. Kershaw (32) Hard to see the Dodgers letting him slip away.

5. Syndergaard (28) Young enough for a long deal

6. Rizzo (31) Do we need a 1Bman?

7. Belt (32) I would not sign him, even if we needed a 1Bman.

8. Freeman (31) Just say no to 1Bmen.

9. Conforto (27) Depends on how our young Of'ers are looking.

10. Kris Bryant (29) 3B/LF- got 'em covered.

11. Correa (26) In meat of prime, but we have Bogey (or do we, long term?)

12. Baez (28) Another SS.

13. T Story (28) Again!

14. Seager (26) and again!

 

Nobody really jumps off the page.

 

 

Sign Correa. Move Xander to 3B. Move Raffy to LF. Duran plays CF. Downs plays 2B. Casas plays 1B. Verdugo/Vaz/JD stay the same.

[moonslav59]

Sign Correa. Move Xander to 3B. Move Raffy to LF. Duran plays CF. Downs plays 2B. Casas plays 1B. Verdugo/Vaz/JD stay the same.

 

Thinking longer term, maybe Bogey opts out after 2022.

 

I see Raffy as a solid 1Bman, if he does not pass the 3B test, this year. That means Dalbec plays 3B or DH, when JD moves on, of he proves he doesn't belong in the everyday line-up.

 

I kinda like Bogey at 2B not 3B, but then what? We trade Downs?

[notin]

Sign Correa. Move Xander to 3B. Move Raffy to LF. Duran plays CF. Downs plays 2B. Casas plays 1B. Verdugo/Vaz/JD stay the same.

 

What if Correa extends with Houston?

[moonslav59]

What if Correa extends with Houston?

 

Word here is they are very far apart.

[Nick]

Thinking longer term, maybe Bogey opts out after 2022.

 

I see Raffy as a solid 1Bman, if he does not pass the 3B test, this year. That means Dalbec plays 3B or DH, when JD moves on, of he proves he doesn't belong in the everyday line-up.

 

I kinda like Bogey at 2B not 3B, but then what? We trade Downs?

 

Again, our current offense will score runs. We'll have Duran, Downs and Casas coming up. We have plenty of corner position players.

 

With the $45M (Ottavino, Perez, E Rod, Richards and Pedey monies), my preference is to re-sign E Rod and get a #1 ace this off season. Again we'll score enough runs with what we have and what we have coming up. It may cost us $50-$55M to add a big name pitcher plus E Rod.

 

Eovalid and his $17M plus Price's $16M will come off the books for 2023 season.

 

I don't see Xander optiing out, just my opinion.

Edited April 9, 2021 by Nick

[Nick]

I know that it's way too early, but I would've been pissed to see JBJ ($12M) and Beni ($5M) in center and left for the Sox. It was definitely time to move on. Edited April 9, 2021 by Nick

[moonslav59]

Again, our current offense will score runs. We'll have Duran, Downs and Casas coming up. We have plenty of corner position players.

 

With the $45M (Ottavino, Perez, E Rod, Richards and Pedey monies), my preference is to re-sign E Rod and get a #1 ace this off season. Again we'll score enough runs with what we have and what we have coming up. It may cost us $50-$55M to add a big name pitcher plus E Rod.

 

Eovalid and his $17M plus Price's $16M will come off the books for 2023 season.

 

I don't see Xander optiing out, just my opinion.

 

I think Bogey likes Boston. I hope he stays, despite his lack luster defense at such a key position.

 

We don't really have anyone in the system to play SS, if he opts out, and most of the better SS are FAs, this winter, not next.

 

I'm not so sure 1 or 2 from Duran, Downs and Casas make a big impact, but I am optimistic.

 

I agree: extend ERod and sign an ace, but who? Grenke, Verlander, Scherzer (all 36 or older)? Kershaw or Syndergaard?

 

We also could have way more than $45M to spend, after 2022, so maybe that plays into allowing us to go way over in 2022:

some have options for 2022

13.8 Pedey

10.0 Richards

8.9 Ottavino

8.3 ERod

5.0 Perez

4.5 Barnes

3.1 Renfroe

3.0 Gonzalez

2.8 Beni

1.9 Andriese

 

After 2022:

22 JD

Maybe 20 w Bogey opt out

17 Eovaldi

16 Price

7 EHern

4.5 Vaz

1.6 Plawecki

1.5 Sawamura

[Nick]

I think Bogey likes Boston. I hope he stays, despite his lack luster defense at such a key position.

 

We don't really have anyone in the system to play SS, if he opts out, and most of the better SS are FAs, this winter, not next.

 

I'm not so sure 1 or 2 from Duran, Downs and Casas make a big impact, but I am optimistic.

 

I agree: extend ERod and sign an ace, but who? Grenke, Verlander, Scherzer (all 36 or older)? Kershaw or Syndergaard?

 

We also could have way more than $45M to spend, after 2022, so maybe that plays into allowing us to go way over in 2022:

some have options for 2022

13.8 Pedey

10.0 Richards

8.9 Ottavino

8.3 ERod

5.0 Perez

4.5 Barnes

3.1 Renfroe

3.0 Gonzalez

2.8 Beni

1.9 Andriese

 

After 2022:

22 JD

Maybe 20 w Bogey opt out

17 Eovaldi

16 Price

7 EHern

4.5 Vaz

1.6 Plawecki

1.5 Sawamura

 

I've never been a big fan of Barnes but maybe he's figured something out. Always thought his command of strike zone was inconsistent and little soft mentally. With Ottavino probably gone, this is why it's critical for Bloom to develop young arms. We can then spend money elsewhere.

 

I had forgotten about JD's money.

 

If we're going for it, you need a top line pitcher to go along hopefully with Sale, I think we move our chips in it next year. Sign free agents and retain our young prospects.

[oldtimer]

I think Bogey likes Boston. I hope he stays, despite his lack luster defense at such a key position.

 

We don't really have anyone in the system to play SS, if he opts out, and most of the better SS are FAs, this winter, not next.

 

I'm not so sure 1 or 2 from Duran, Downs and Casas make a big impact, but I am optimistic.

 

I agree: extend ERod and sign an ace, but who? Grenke, Verlander, Scherzer (all 36 or older)? Kershaw or Syndergaard?

 

We also could have way more than $45M to spend, after 2022, so maybe that plays into allowing us to go way over in 2022:

some have options for 2022

13.8 Pedey

10.0 Richards

8.9 Ottavino

8.3 ERod

5.0 Perez

4.5 Barnes

3.1 Renfroe

3.0 Gonzalez

2.8 Beni

1.9 Andriese

 

After 2022:

22 JD

Maybe 20 w Bogey opt out

17 Eovaldi

16 Price

7 EHern

4.5 Vaz

1.6 Plawecki

1.5 Sawamura

 

We need to remain flexible in our thinking as new FA stars will appear and we will have to assess our prospects and they include both Codero and Renfroe who are both fairly young. As you point out, we will have lots of money to spend and need to use it to fill in the weak spots and especially in the pitching area. I personally hope we don't pour big money into aging ace pitchers.

[Nick]

Nice win by Rays over the Yankees.

 

Kluber and Richards, racing to the bottom of ocean.

[Nick]

We need to remain flexible in our thinking as new FA stars will appear and we will have to assess our prospects and they include both Codero and Renfroe who are both fairly young. As you point out, we will have lots of money to spend and need to use it to fill in the weak spots and especially in the pitching area. I personally hope we don't pour big money into aging ace pitchers.

 

Good year out of Codero, Renfroe and Dalbec will help the money crunch coming up. I still don't think we need major upgrade to our offense. Defense? Can't have it all. Just look at our 2B-SS-3B.

[moonslav59]

I've never been a big fan of Barnes but maybe he's figured something out. Always thought his command of strike zone was inconsistent and little soft mentally. With Ottavino probably gone, this is why it's critical for Bloom to develop young arms. We can then spend money elsewhere.

 

I had forgotten about JD's money.

 

If we're going for it, you need a top line pitcher to go along hopefully with Sale, I think we move our chips in it next year. Sign free agents and retain our young prospects.

 

Barnes has been real good for several years- just not as a closer and not on back-to-back nights.

 

I'm 100% on building a rotation from the top.

[moonslav59]

Good year out of Codero, Renfroe and Dalbec will help the money crunch coming up. I still don't think we need major upgrade to our offense. Defense? Can't have it all. Just look at our 2B-SS-3B.

 

Cordero could really end up being the steal of the winter, although Witlock might have something to say about that.

[Nick]

According to Penn National Gaming study, it's estimated that Sox ranked third in lost gate revenue during 2020, little over $175M.

 

But if you look at Cot's, Sox player payroll data, opening day payroll in 2020 was around $74M. That's $160M less than 2019 figure.

 

I have no idea lost revenue from concession, gift shop etc .

 

Strictly based on gate, Sox only suffered net $15M loss in 2020. (based on gate revenue vs player payroll)

 

Unless the fan attendance is ramped up from current 12% capacity, Sox stands to lose more money in 2021 because Sox is paying for full year's salary this time around ($180M).

 

Gate revenue at 12% capacity is only $22M, creating a loss of $160M in 2021 vs $15M in 2020.

 

Ouch.

Edited April 10, 2021 by Nick

[notin]

Cordero could really end up being the steal of the winter, although Witlock might have something to say about that.

 

Or Pivetta...