A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Bellhorn04]

The ultimate object is to win the game. Wins , saves and ERA are paramount. All this other stuff is window dressing and gobbledygook. Which is fine if you enjoy window dressing and gobbledygook.

 

You'd be better off stopping after the first sentence. Because wins, saves and ERA are all debatable stuff too.

[mvp 78]

As the radio voice of the Yankees , John Sterling, would say , " That's baseball , Suzyn. " The analytics addicts would spend hours coming up with stats to explain it all. Probably invent a few new stats along the way.

 

My fantasy team will need some new stats if it's going to win this year...

[dgalehouse]

And wins and ERA depend heavily on the team around you. Saves are overrated and no more important than Holds. And in some instances, like Randy Dobnak yesterday, saves are a flat out joke...

 

Baseball is a team sport. Of course much depends on your teammates. It doesn't detract from individual performance. The Dobnak thing is just a fluke. You could do that with just about anything. Find some extreme example to discredit the whole thing.

[notin]

Baseball is a team sport. Of course much depends on your teammates. It doesn't detract from individual performance. The Dobnak thing is just a fluke. You could do that with just about anything. Find some extreme example to discredit the whole thing.

 

Except that the Dobnak thing was explicitly written into the rules for a save. Hitting a home run in a 15-1 game is not the same, because there is no rule for game situation about what constitutes a home run. Saves, on the other hand, are completely determined by game situation. And for some reason, the people determining what constitutes a save decided pitching the last 3 innings regardless of score and performance equals a save.

 

Even wins can take into account how a pitcher does. It rarely, if ever, happens any more, but the official scorer can take a win away from a relief pitcher who is in line for a victory if he does poorly, and the scorer can give it to the next pitcher who comes in. (Rule 10.17 in the MLB rule book, if you doubt me.)

 

But the 3 inning save rule has no such contingencies I am aware of...

[mvp 78]

@alexspeier

Alex Cora on @MLBNetworkRadio says "it looks like [Eduardo Rodriguez] will be a go this week."

[Bellhorn04]

Baseball is a team sport. Of course much depends on your teammates. It doesn't detract from individual performance. The Dobnak thing is just a fluke. You could do that with just about anything. Find some extreme example to discredit the whole thing.

 

And you like to discredit any of the newer stats that you don't buy into.

[Nick]

Whitlock is very interesting. As a Yankee prospect follower, he was always a guy who outperformed his draft position and stuff ticked up as he rose. Then he blew out his UCL and the Yanks didnt 40 man him, hence how he made it to you. He was an innings eating starter in the minors, but you dont have a spot for him in the rotation as of yet. I do think he can end up being a good starter on a big league squad, but I didnt realize his stuff ticked up even more post TJS. Shame on the Yanks for not rostering him. He was chucking 97 mph 2 seamers the other day. If that stuff stays and plays, the sox would have little choice but to get him into the rotation

 

Yep.....I think you know more about him than anyone here....

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Except that the Dobnak thing was explicitly written into the rules for a save. Hitting a home run in a 15-1 game is not the same, because there is no rule for game situation about what constitutes a home run. Saves, on the other hand, are completely determined by game situation. And for some reason, the people determining what constitutes a save decided pitching the last 3 innings regardless of score and performance equals a save.

 

Even wins can take into account how a pitcher does. It rarely, if ever, happens any more, but the official scorer can take a win away from a relief pitcher who is in line for a victory if he does poorly, and the scorer can give it to the next pitcher who comes in. (Rule 10.17 in the MLB rule book, if you doubt me.)

 

But the 3 inning save rule has no such contingencies I am aware of...

 

Dobnak "saved" the arms of the guys in the pen they'd rather not use in a blow-out... he "saved" the Twins' relievers for the late innings of the next close game (as long as it's not in the playoffs; then, they might as well just activate Bert Blyleven's bronze plaque for all that matters).

[dgalehouse]

Except that the Dobnak thing was explicitly written into the rules for a save. Hitting a home run in a 15-1 game is not the same, because there is no rule for game situation about what constitutes a home run. Saves, on the other hand, are completely determined by game situation. And for some reason, the people determining what constitutes a save decided pitching the last 3 innings regardless of score and performance equals a save.

 

Even wins can take into account how a pitcher does. It rarely, if ever, happens any more, but the official scorer can take a win away from a relief pitcher who is in line for a victory if he does poorly, and the scorer can give it to the next pitcher who comes in. (Rule 10.17 in the MLB rule book, if you doubt me.)

 

But the 3 inning save rule has no such contingencies I am aware of...

 

It's a little flaw in the save rule. Not important. Dobnak will not be among the save leaders. A true closer very seldom picks up a save in that manner. It is insignificant.

[dgalehouse]

And you like to discredit any of the newer stats that you don't buy into.

 

Yes , I do. I do want to know how many homers a guy hit. Not that interested in the launch angle or exit velocity.

[a700hitter]

My fantasy team will need some new stats if it's going to win this year...

It’s not the usual MVP powerhouse roster, but it’s too early to tell.

[moonslav59]

Alternative Site news (some old news)

 

http://news.soxprospects.com/2021/04/fort-report-mlb-opening-day-alternate.html

[notin]

Dobnak "saved" the arms of the guys in the pen they'd rather not use in a blow-out... he "saved" the Twins' relievers for the late innings of the next close game (as long as it's not in the playoffs; then, they might as well just activate Bert Blyleven's bronze plaque for all that matters).

 

Teams have 8 and 9 man bullpens now. Your argument might have made sense in 1978...

[notin]

My fantasy team will need some new stats if it's going to win this year...

 

I'll bite. Who's on it?

[Bellhorn04]

It's a little flaw in the save rule. Not important. Dobnak will not be among the save leaders. A true closer very seldom picks up a save in that manner. It is insignificant.

 

Let me ask this, just for fun. Without looking it up, how many of the rules for what earns a save and what earns a blown save do you know?

[notin]

Let me ask this, just for fun. Without looking it up, how many of the rules for what earns a save and what earns a blown save do you know?

 

To be fair, they have changed a lot over the years. Which is another flaw with saves.

 

Using your best reliever to get key hitters (interpretation wide open) out is a always great strategy. But the save stat is overrated and polluted for multiple reasons, and it always seemed to me that the primary reason the closer evolved into a 9th inning specialist had more to do with managers being able to handle press conferences than actual in-game pressure...

[Maxbialystock]

One more time.

 

These very early stats suggest that not walking batters might be the most important stat for pitching stats--

 

Mets, 3 walks (best in MLB), ERA 2.25

Twins, 7 walks (2d best), ERA 2.00

Yankees, 9 walks (3d best), ERA 1.70

Phillies, 11 walks (tied for 4th best), ERA 1.46

Braves, 11 walks (tied for 4th best), ERA 2.81

Padres, 11 walks (tied for 4th best), ERA 2.20.

 

And here's the five MLB teams pitching staffs with the most BB's given up--

 

Angels, 21 walks, ERA 5.00

Rockies, 23 walks, ERA 5.75

Diamondbacks, 23 walks, ERA 4.91

Tigers, 24 walks, ERA 6.75

A's, 25 walks, ERA 8.60

[dgalehouse]

Let me ask this, just for fun. Without looking it up, how many of the rules for what earns a save and what earns a blown save do you know?

 

I'm not going to make a list , but I think I have a pretty good understanding of the different scenarios. One thing I don't like is when a guy can get charged with a blown save when he is only pitching in a " hold " situation. You can't get a " save " unless you get the final out. To me , call it whatever you want , but the goal is to close out the victory in a close or relatively close game. It hurts extra when you lose those.

[moonslav59]

I'm not going to make a list , but I think I have a pretty good understanding of the different scenarios. One thing I don't like is when a guy can get charged with a blown save when he is only pitching in a " hold " situation. You can't get a " save " unless you get the final out. To me , call it whatever you want , but the goal is to close out the victory in a close or relatively close game. It hurts extra when you lose those.

 

Do you want a blown hold stat?

[dgalehouse]

Do you want a blown hold stat?

 

No . We have way too many stats as it is. I would rather keep things a little simpler.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not going to make a list , but I think I have a pretty good understanding of the different scenarios. One thing I don't like is when a guy can get charged with a blown save when he is only pitching in a " hold " situation. You can't get a " save " unless you get the final out. To me , call it whatever you want , but the goal is to close out the victory in a close or relatively close game. It hurts extra when you lose those.

 

The save stat was not a bad idea in principle. But the rules are messed up.

 

It still amazes me that Rivera got charged with a 'blown save' in Game 5 of the 2004 ALCS. He came in in the 8th with runners at first and third, no outs and a one run lead. He gave up a sac fly that tied the game. He went on to pitch 2 innings and be charged with 0 runs, yet he got the 'blown save'. Tom Gordon, who put those runners on in the 8th, got credited with a hold and no blown anything.

 

If the rules are no good, the stat isn't much good.

[notin]

The save stat was not a bad idea in principle. But the rules are messed up.

 

It still amazes me that Rivera got charged with a 'blown save' in Game 5 of the 2004 ALCS. He came in in the 8th with runners at first and third, no outs and a one run lead. He gave up a sac fly that tied the game. He went on to pitch 2 innings and be charged with 0 runs, yet he got the 'blown save'. Tom Gordon, who put those runners on in the 8th, got credited with a hold and no blown anything.

 

If the rules are no good, the stat isn't much good.

 

Agreed.

 

And while it is a tough role to quantify due to the instances like that one you bring up, which are very numeous, the real issue is how manager seemingly manage games with the save in mind and reserve their best reliever for a nnth inning role. If the Yankees had used Rivera to face the opposing team's best hitters late in the game (say, 7th inning or later) and let the ninth inning saves fall where they may, with some going to Rivera, but likely more going to some combination of other relievers like Mike Stanton or Jeff Nelson - both very talented relief pitchers - would it have changed the amount of titles they won?

 

(In fact, one could argue that leaving Rivera in for the 9th inning of game 7 of the 2001 World Series to ace the 7-8-9 spots in Arizona's lineup after he just pitched the 8th and instead bringing in another reliever for that final inning might have given the Yankees another title)...

[Nick]

Good article on MassLive (subscription required for this piece) about how Bloom is gathering young, starting pitching talent. He's very high on several young pitchers, detailing pitches they have and pitches they are working on.

 

Whitlock as a Rule 5 player is working not only to help in a long relief role for Sox in 2021 but expanding his pitches to return to starting pitcher.

 

Houck is working on a third pitch but Bloom thinks his slider is special and he could become one of those pitchers that may thrive as a starter only having two pitches.

 

Noah Song will reapply to get relief from his military commitment in May. His fastball had topped 97 and he has several secondary pitches to go alone with it. Potential high ceiling guy.

 

Bryan Matta's elbow issue has raised some concerns, reading between the lines. A top prospect.

 

Thaddeus Ward, Conner Seabold, Chris Murphy, Frank German, Josh Winckowski and Chi-Jung Lui were other pitchers mentioned.

 

He said he's been on the job for 17 months and has not seen a minor league game and THAT's been difficult.

 

His primary focus (farm system) is developing young pitching talent right now.

Edited April 7, 2021 by Nick

[notin]

Good article on MassLive (subscription required for this piece) about how Bloom is gathering young, starting pitching talent. He's very high on several young pitchers, detailing pitches they have and pitches they are working on.

 

Whitlock as a Rule 5 player is working not only to help in a long relief role for Sox in 2021 but expanding his pitches to return to starting pitcher.

 

Houck is working on a third pitch but Bloom thinks his slider is special and he could become one of those pitchers that may thrive as a starter only having two pitches.

 

Noah Song will reapply to get relief from his military commitment in May. His fastball had topped 97 and he has several secondary pitches to go alone with it. Potential high ceiling guy.

 

Bryan Matta's elbow issue has raised some concerns, reading between the lines. A top prospect.

 

Thaddeus Ward, Conner Seabold, Chris Murphy, Frank German, Josh Winckowski and Chi-Jung Lui were other pitchers mentioned.

 

He said he's been on the job for 17 months and has not seen a minor league game and THAT's been difficult.

 

His primary focus (farm system) is developing young pitching talent right now.

 

... which is why I am hoping Jack Leiter falls to number 4 and the Sox do not take another high school shortstop...

[Nick]

... which is why I am hoping Jack Leiter falls to number 4 and the Sox do not take another high school shortstop...

 

I agree....college pitcher from great college program trumps any high school kid.

[Bellhorn04]

Good article on MassLive (subscription required for this piece) about how Bloom is gathering young, starting pitching talent. He's very high on several young pitchers, detailing pitches they have and pitches they are working on.

 

Imagine the Red Sox having a head of baseball ops whose real forte is pitching...

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed.

 

And while it is a tough role to quantify due to the instances like that one you bring up, which are very numeous, the real issue is how manager seemingly manage games with the save in mind and reserve their best reliever for a nnth inning role. If the Yankees had used Rivera to face the opposing team's best hitters late in the game (say, 7th inning or later) and let the ninth inning saves fall where they may, with some going to Rivera, but likely more going to some combination of other relievers like Mike Stanton or Jeff Nelson - both very talented relief pitchers - would it have changed the amount of titles they won?

 

(In fact, one could argue that leaving Rivera in for the 9th inning of game 7 of the 2001 World Series to ace the 7-8-9 spots in Arizona's lineup after he just pitched the 8th and instead bringing in another reliever for that final inning might have given the Yankees another title)...

 

Of all the things that can be irksome about the save stat, my personal #1 is the way announcers think it's necessary to specify whether it's a 'save situation' or not, as if that's really important. Drives me nuts.

[notin]

Of all the things that can be irksome about the save stat, my personal #1 is the way announcers think it's necessary to specify whether it's a 'save situation' or not, as if that's really important. Drives me nuts.

 

Or when a pitcher who typically handles the save situations fails because it isn't one. "Well, Rob Dibble struggled here because he had a 4 run lead." No, he struggled because he could not pitch that particular day. It happens to human beings. I mean, if the argument is the close ninth inning games are difficult due to the high pressure situation how does less pressure make it even more difficult?

[mvp 78]

Imagine the Red Sox having a head of baseball ops whose real forte is pitching...

 

Hmm, doesn't sound true. Was this posted on 4/1?

[Bellhorn04]

Or when a pitcher who typically handles the save situations fails because it isn't one. "Well, Rob Dibble struggled here because he had a 4 run lead." No, he struggled because he could not pitch that particular day. It happens to human beings. I mean, if the argument is the close ninth inning games are difficult due to the high pressure situation how does less pressure make it even more difficult?

 

Leads that are too big or too small don't fall in the sweet spot, I guess LOL