A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[SPLENDIDSPLINTER]

The idea is to upgrade the bullpen, which has been really good, but will it continue to perform at a high level? Who cares if that upgrade is or isn't a closer. The only goal is to add a really good bullpen arm to replace one of guys who will not be trusted to pitch in the postseason: Workman, Rios, Andreise.

 

If the Red Sox acquire Kimbrel, I would keep Barnes as the closer and use Kimbrel as a kind of weapon to be used in crucial situations to stop a rally (a game is sometimes decided in the 6th or 7th inning, for example). Kimbrel would undoubtedly understand the dynamics of that (he is an excellent teammate) and of course Kimbrel would reclaim the closer role next season when Ottavino and Barnes are not here.

 

The strongest and most consistent part of the SOX this season has been the BP. What the SOX need is a starting pitcher. Btw, if Andriese is still on the SOX by PO time, then I'm certain there's some kind of extortion going on.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Ottavino (35 years old):

struggled at the end of the 2020 season, sucked in the 2020 playoffs (one appearance)

Was mediocre in Sept. 2019 and was completely useless in the 2019 playoffs (multiple appearances)

Dominant first half in 2018; mediocre second half in 2018; terrible in the 2018 playoffs

 

Barnes: having a career year thus far. I hope it continues.

 

Ottavino and his late season struggles concern me more than Barnes. Do others believe the Red Sox should simply go with what they currently have in the bullpen or should the Red Sox pursue another reliever at the trade deadline? Of course, that reliever doesn't have to be Kimbrel, but Kimbrel is the best one available, but he will also be a costly acquisition in terms of prospects.

 

I think it would be foolish to do nothing when bullpen upgrades are possible through trades. Again, we don't want Bloom to be another Brian Cashman.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

The strongest and most consistent part of the SOX this season has been the BP. What the SOX need is a starting pitcher. Btw, if Andriese is still on the SOX by PO time, then I'm certain there's some kind of extortion going on.

 

OK, if you want to acquire a starter, which would allow the Red Sox to move a current starter to the bullpen, then yes, I think that strategy could work as well. In fact, it might be a better strategy than targeting a bullpen arm.

 

Of course, acquiring a quality starter--a guy you would have confidence in in a big spot playoff game--will be costly in terms of prospects. The Red Sox won't be able to acquire a really good starter without parting with an excellent prospect (or two).

 

But I think the Red Sox should do it. They need to make a trade and upgrade their pitching, and increase their chances of winning a championship this year. In turn, a top Red Sox prospect must go.

Edited July 10, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

OK, if you want to acquire a starter, which would allow the Red Sox to move a current starter to the bullpen, then yes, I think that strategy could work as well. In fact, it might be a better strategy than targeting a bullpen arm.

 

Of course, acquiring a quality starter--a guy you would have confidence in in a big spot playoff game--will be costly in terms of prospects. The Red Sox won't be able to acquire a really good starter without parting with an excellent prospect (or two).

 

But I think the Red Sox should do it. They need to make a trade and upgrade their pitching, and increase their chances of winning a championship this year. In turn, a top Red Sox prospect must go.

 

If the starter is owed a lot of money, maybe the return doesn't have to be anyone real promising.

 

But, we are walking a tight rope n the lux tax line.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

If the Red Sox trade for a starting pitcher, the postseason rotation would look something like this:

 

1. Sale

2. Eovaldi

3. TRADE

4. Pivetta or Perez

 

The starting pitcher acquired in a trade would need to better--clearly better--than Pivetta or Perez to make it a worthwhile trade. How many pitchers on the trade market are decidedly better than those two? The list is probably a short one.

 

But I am also assuming that Sale will return and will lead the rotation later in the season and in the playoffs. If you have doubts about Sale contributing to the rotation this year, the Red Sox need for a SP increases significantly.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Tomase: Why Chaim Bloom needs to trade prospects before deadline

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/red-sox/mlb-trade-deadline-why-red-sox-may-need-trade-prospects

[moonslav59]

If the Red Sox trade for a starting pitcher, the postseason rotation would look something like this:

 

1. Sale

2. Eovaldi

3. TRADE

4. Pivetta or Perez

 

The starting pitcher acquired in a trade would need to better--clearly better--than Pivetta or Perez to make it a worthwhile trade. How many pitchers on the trade market are decidedly better than those two? The list is probably a short one.

 

But I am also assuming that Sale will return and will lead the rotation later in the season and in the playoffs. If you have doubts about Sale contributing to the rotation this year, the Red Sox need for a SP increases significantly.

 

Danny Duffy?

 

His high salary should weaken the return.

[Bellhorn04]

I'm not even close to supporting us being sellers, but we could really set ourselves up nicely for 2022 and beyond with a few rental trade-aways.

 

Barnes

 

Ottavino

 

ERod

 

You would do it, wouldn't you?

 

Good thing you're not close to wanting to sell when we have the best record in the league though! LOL

[Bellhorn04]

OK, if you want to acquire a starter, which would allow the Red Sox to move a current starter to the bullpen, then yes, I think that strategy could work as well. In fact, it might be a better strategy than targeting a bullpen arm.

 

Of course, acquiring a quality starter--a guy you would have confidence in in a big spot playoff game--will be costly in terms of prospects. The Red Sox won't be able to acquire a really good starter without parting with an excellent prospect (or two).

 

But I think the Red Sox should do it. They need to make a trade and upgrade their pitching, and increase their chances of winning a championship this year. In turn, a top Red Sox prospect must go.

 

My guess is Bloom picks up a quality reliever who isn't necessarily a big name, and costs a middling prospect or two only.

[moonslav59]

You would do it, wouldn't you?

 

Good thing you're not close to wanting to sell when we have the best record in the league though! LOL

 

A while ago, I was 50-50, but this year's team is looking more and more like a winner.

 

I would not trade Downs or any other prospect Bloom & Co. think can be special.

 

I count about 10 guys on our current 40 man roster I would not miss, if we traded them. We have 5-7 Rule 5 prospects that could squeeze our 40 man, next season- depending on how many free agents we sign.

 

My guess is, Bloom will identify who he thinks won't make the 2022 40 man roster and offer any of them that are not a part of the 2021 drive to a ring. Who those players are is conjecture, but I'd guess Chavis, Potts, Wilson, Arauz and maybe some Rule 5 prospects we may think are worthy of protecting.

 

Now, what can we get for bubble players?

[moonslav59]

My guess is Bloom picks up a quality reliever who isn't necessarily a big name, and costs a middling prospect or two only.

 

That's what I think, and maybe a LH'd hitting 1Bman.

 

How Sale is progressing and how they plan on using him could sway us to trade for a SP'er.

[Hugh2]

Hypothetically if you were sellers at the trade deadline every year, in several years the level of talent you’d have after trading away assets could be equal to or greater than what you make your team by being buyers.

 

You effectively turn all your players into 5 year guys instead of 6, but you load your system up so you’re constantly replenishing the team (or making off-season trades).

 

I’am not clamoring for this strategy, I only find the concept fascinating. It’s like witnessing a case study in psychology, studying instant gratification vs. long term goals play out in real time with a fan base.

[Hugh2]

But with that said, I think a bat to platoon at 1B would be nice. Also I could go for another reliever.

 

Sale will be back for the playoffs, but he’s not going 7, probably not even 6. Our pen has been one of the largest reasons of our success, and strengthening it now could serve as an anticipatory move assuming someone gets hurt or regresses.

[Elktonnick]

That's what I think, and maybe a LH'd hitting 1Bman.

 

How Sale is progressing and how they plan on using him could sway us to trade for a SP'er.

Because the Sox are exceeding all expectations, I have totally revamped my thinking on how Bloom will approach the trade deadline. I now believe he will not be seeking to improve any particular area but rather see what is offered. He will not part with any prospect unless what is being offered is literally someone he could not refuse. In essence he will be looking for depth that he can pickup without giving up much in return.

Looking at the rotation, he has three starters waiting in the wings if need be . Sale who the Sox are obviously moving very cautiously to bring up., Tanner Houck whom they can bring up anytime they wish and Whitlock whom they can start in an emergency. Given those three Bloom will not mortgage the future to acquire a starter.

First base is a position Bloom will only make a move depending what is out there and at what price. Dalbec is making steady improvement so I do not see that as a must need right now.

[Bellhorn04]

Hypothetically if you were sellers at the trade deadline every year, in several years the level of talent you’d have after trading away assets could be equal to or greater than what you make your team by being buyers.

 

You effectively turn all your players into 5 year guys instead of 6, but you load your system up so you’re constantly replenishing the team (or making off-season trades).

 

I’am not clamoring for this strategy, I only find the concept fascinating. It’s like witnessing a case study in psychology, studying instant gratification vs. long term goals play out in real time with a fan base.

 

To me the thing is, if you never get the instant gratification of winning championships, what exactly is the point?

 

You can fall a little too much in love with the future.

 

To be a really good manager, you have to balance the present with the future.

[Hugh2]

To me the thing is, if you never get the instant gratification of winning championships, what exactly is the point?

 

You can fall a little too much in love with the future.

 

To be a really good manager, you have to balance the present with the future.

 

The point is to win a championship. It’s like the classical philosophical question. Would you rather have 100k today in one lump sum, or wait 3 years and receive 100k every year for life?.

 

I think we’re discrediting the concept of forgoing instant gratification.

 

This is just a hypothetical, but would you rather have 1 championship this year? Or three consecutive championships starting 2 years from now?

 

Not saying going for it isn’t the most viable option. We’re fans, we don’t have any real personal stake in the outcome of these games. But I find it fascinating still.

[Bellhorn04]

The point is to win a championship. It’s like the classical philosophical question. Would you rather have 100k today in one lump sum, or wait 3 years and receive 100k every year for life?.

 

I think we’re discrediting the concept of forgoing instant gratification.

 

This is just a hypothetical, but would you rather have 1 championship this year? Or three consecutive championships starting 2 years from now?

 

Not saying going for it isn’t the most viable option. We’re fans, we don’t have any real personal stake in the outcome of these games. But I find it fascinating still.

 

Those two either-ors you presented are strongly biased toward waiting, unless you only have a year or two to live.

 

As an accountant I often get asked by clients if they should start collecting their Canada Pension as early as possible, at age 60, or wait and collect a higher amount later. I almost invariably tell them to start collecting it right away, and enjoy it, because you never know what's going to happen in the future.

 

The best laid plans of mice and men, and all that.

[Hugh2]

Those two either-ors you presented are strongly biased toward waiting, unless you only have a year or two to live.

 

As an accountant I often get asked by clients if they should start collecting their Canada Pension as early as possible, at age 60, or wait and collect a higher amount later. I almost invariably tell them to start collecting it right away, and enjoy it, because you never know what's going to happen in the future.

 

The best laid plans of mice and men, and all that.

 

It’s a hypothetical thought experiment dude. It wasn’t my intention for someone to take it literal and run with it as I pointed out.

 

I just find it fascinating that we (me included at times) are willing to turn a blind eye to the future to win today.

 

https://www.inc.com/melissa-chu/why-your-brain-prioritizes-instant-gratification-o.html

[Bellhorn04]

It’s a hypothetical thought experiment dude. It wasn’t my intention for someone to take it literal and run with it as I pointed out.

 

I just find it fascinating that we (me included at times) are willing to turn a blind eye to the future to win today.

[/url]

 

And I didn't mean to be snarky or dismissive if it sounded that way.

 

A good real world example might be us trading Matt Barnes by the end of this month, as it's been raised as a possibility by more than one poster.

 

To me trading Barnes would be sheer madness and an incredible affront to the fans.

[Hugh2]

And I didn't mean to be snarky or dismissive if it sounded that way.

 

A good real world example might be us trading Matt Barnes by the end of this month, as it's been raised as a possibility by more than one poster.

 

To me trading Barnes would be sheer madness and an incredible affront to the fans.

 

Oh dude, me neither, I just didn’t want you to think I was strongly advocating being sellers. I don’t even believe 1/2 of my own crap I just type out unfiltered word vomit.

[Nick]

Draft Strategy...something many of us may not be considering.....

 

The Red Sox used the 17th overall pick in 2020 on high school second baseman Nick Yorke who entered last year’s draft ranked the 139th-best player by MLB.com.

 

Boston signed Yorke for $2.7 million — under the $3,609,700 slot value for the 17th overall pick. The Sox then used the money they saved to give third-rounder Blaze Jordan an overslot signing bonus of $1.75 million.

 

Each team has a bonus pool for its Rounds 1-10 selections that it cannot exceed. The Red Sox have the sixth largest total bonus pool ($11,359,600), just over $2.5 million more than the average pool in ’21, per Baseball America.

 

It is $6.2297 million more than the Red Sox’s bonus pool in 2020 and $6.5715 million more than their allotment in 2019.

 

With higher picks in each round, will Bloom save money for later rounds?

[Nick]

I'm not even close to supporting us being sellers, but we could really set ourselves up nicely for 2022 and beyond with a few rental trade-aways.

 

Barnes

 

Ottavino

 

ERod

 

To follow up, we can replace the three with Sale, Houck and Brasier. We'd also shave off $5M from luxury tax.

 

World Series rotation would be

 

Sale

Eovaldi

Pivetta

Perez/Richards

 

Whitlock, Houck, Brasier, Taylor, Darwinzon, Sawamura

Edited July 10, 2021 by Nick

[Bellhorn04]

To follow up, we can replace the three with Sale, Houck and Brasier.

 

Are you in favor of it?

[moonslav59]

To follow up, we can replace the three with Sale, Houck and Brasier.

 

Big drop off for the top two pen guys.

[moonslav59]

To follow up, we can replace the three with Sale, Houck and Brasier.

 

Then, who replaces next year's 3 IL guys?

[moonslav59]

IMO, we are going to sign 3 decent FAs, this winter, minimum.

 

We may go big on 3 or moderate on 5, but I doubt we sign 6 or more players expected to be on the opening day 26 man roster, unless we trade some good players away.

[Bellhorn04]

Then, who replaces next year's 3 IL guys?

 

That question has to be answered whether we trade our expiring contracts or not, of course.

 

The interesting part is the effect on this year.

[notin]

And I didn't mean to be snarky or dismissive if it sounded that way.

 

A good real world example might be us trading Matt Barnes by the end of this month, as it's been raised as a possibility by more than one poster.

 

To me trading Barnes would be sheer madness and an incredible affront to the fans.

 

... unless it worked out

[notin]

Draft Strategy...something many of us may not be considering.....

 

The Red Sox used the 17th overall pick in 2020 on high school second baseman Nick Yorke who entered last year’s draft ranked the 139th-best player by MLB.com.

 

Boston signed Yorke for $2.7 million — under the $3,609,700 slot value for the 17th overall pick. The Sox then used the money they saved to give third-rounder Blaze Jordan an overslot signing bonus of $1.75 million.

 

Each team has a bonus pool for its Rounds 1-10 selections that it cannot exceed. The Red Sox have the sixth largest total bonus pool ($11,359,600), just over $2.5 million more than the average pool in ’21, per Baseball America.

 

It is $6.2297 million more than the Red Sox’s bonus pool in 2020 and $6.5715 million more than their allotment in 2019.

 

With higher picks in each round, will Bloom save money for later rounds?

 

I have brought this up on the draft thread, that Bloom is a bit of a wild card. But I think it is perfectly relevant and I think he picks someone slated at 4 on 0 mock drafts so far (including - nay, especially - mine)...

[Nick]

Are you in favor of it?

 

Absolutely NOT.....just following up on Moon's thread....

 

We should not be a seller at this point....

 

I'm holding back my impulse to buy the championship this year........you know trade away the farm to get Kimbrel, Verlander, etc...lol

 

Just little tweaking and hope Sale, Houck and Brasier returns to their old self.

Edited July 10, 2021 by Nick