A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[Nick]

I have brought this up on the draft thread, that Bloom is a bit of a wild card. But I think it is perfectly relevant and I think he picks someone slated at 4 on 0 mock drafts so far (including - nay, especially - mine)...

 

Sorry, I keep forgetting that there's a draft thread...

[moonslav59]

Some interesting Sox OPS trends...

 

JD was falling for over a month, but has recently leap-frogged Bogey and Devers in OPS:

.933 JD

.932 Devers

.913 Bogey

One big game by any of these guys can jumble their positions. (Verdugo has fallen to the second tier but is still doing well.)

 

The next set of players has grown from just Renfroe to 4 guys. This is great news as we now have 7 guys over .739.

 

.780 Verdugo (may drop from the top 4, soon)

.778 Renfroe (pretty consistent since May 1st)

.756 Kike (on a steep rise)

.739 Arroyo (big drop after 0-5 night)

 

The next tier has a few players on the rise, and maybe 1-2 may joing tier two by the end of July.

 

.684 Dalbec (still waiting for a longer hot streak)

.668 Plawecky (on IL)

.651 Vaz (hoping he can find that near .800 level, again)

.585 Marwin (actually doing better)

.557 Chavis (last gasp)

.522 Santana (on IL)

 

Last 14 Days (20+ PAs)

1.161 JD

1.121 Kike

1.120 Devers

.820 Renfroe

.819 Bogey

.755 Marwin

.748 Dalbec (.827 last 28 days)

.708 Verdugo

.569 Vaz

 

 

[oldtimer]

Noticed on fan graphs that Duran is the only Sox player rated in the top 50 in the updated list.

[moonslav59]

Noticed on fan graphs that Duran is the only Sox player rated in the top 50 in the updated list.

 

Were there more on their last list?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Trading ERod and Barnes would not only be an affront to the fans, but to the guys in the dugout and bullpen. One's close to the manager, who's remained faithful to his former 19-game winner struggling to regain stardom after a year off with a horrible disease. The other is the club's All-Star closer.

 

And yet... does anyone here believe Bloom will offer either a longterm contract this winter at market value? If you say no, can you envision Chaim Bloom being ok with letting either of them walk away for nothing?

[dgalehouse]

Trading ERod and Barnes would not only be an affront to the fans, but to the guys in the dugout and bullpen. One's close to the manager, who's remained faithful to his former 19-game winner struggling to regain stardom after a year off with a horrible disease. The other is the club's All-Star closer.

 

And yet... does anyone here believe Bloom will offer either a longterm contract this winter at market value? If you say no, can you envision Chaim Bloom being ok with letting either of them walk away for nothing?

 

It would border on the bizarre for any contending team to trade their closer at the deadline. Barnes is not being dealt. Next year is still to be determined. No need to think about it yet.

[moonslav59]

Trading ERod and Barnes would not only be an affront to the fans, but to the guys in the dugout and bullpen. One's close to the manager, who's remained faithful to his former 19-game winner struggling to regain stardom after a year off with a horrible disease. The other is the club's All-Star closer.

 

And yet... does anyone here believe Bloom will offer either a longterm contract this winter at market value? If you say no, can you envision Chaim Bloom being ok with letting either of them walk away for nothing?

 

Yes.

 

He may replace them with someone else or 3-4 players to replace those 2.

 

He does not have to run the Sox like he did the Rays.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

This is just a hypothetical, but would you rather have 1 championship this year? Or three consecutive championships starting 2 years from now?

 

Great question. The latter is preferable to the former--3 championships are better than 1. HOWEVER, a GM can make a huge and arrogant blunder in striving for the latter and not the former. This was arguably Brian Cashman's mistake over the last several seasons--he held on to his prospects like they were gold, didn't adequately strengthen his teams at the deadline, and the Yankees came up short in the playoffs. Cashman was playing the long game, hoping to build a dynasty, but look at where the Yankees are today. Accordingly, I believe an organization must go all in (within reasonable parameters) when the opportunity presents itself. Championships are elusive and when you have an opportunity to win one, you increase the odds by adding contributing players to your team and subtracting from your farm system.

 

Let's face it, the Cubs were right to give up Torres for Chapman even though Chapman was a rental. So many top prospects never live up to the hype anyway and even if they look like the real deal, as Torres did for a number of seasons, so many things can go wrong--look at Torres now. Accordingly, when your team has an opportunity to win a championship, you go for it and must be willing to subtract talent from your farm system.

 

Jeter Downs seems like a tradable asset to me. First, he is underperforming so far this year and has been a disappointment. Of course, we are dealing with a small sample size and Downs is adjusting to AAA. He could have a big second half. Second, I think N.Yorke is the future starting 2b for the Red Sox and so Downs isn't needed long term. I also think the Red Sox and Bogaerts will come to a long term agreement and so Downs isn't needed at SS either.

 

I generally don't like trading away quality prospects, but winning a championship is more important than holding on to some prospect who you believe is going to be the next great Hall-of-Fame player but more often than not doesn't live up to the hype.

Edited July 10, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Nick]

Some interesting Sox OPS trends...

 

JD was falling for over a month, but has recently leap-frogged Bogey and Devers in OPS:

.933 JD

.932 Devers

.913 Bogey

One big game by any of these guys can jumble their positions. (Verdugo has fallen to the second tier but is still doing well.)

 

The next set of players has grown from just Renfroe to 4 guys. This is great news as we now have 7 guys over .739.

 

.780 Verdugo (may drop from the top 4, soon)

.778 Renfroe (pretty consistent since May 1st)

.756 Kike (on a steep rise)

.739 Arroyo (big drop after 0-5 night)

 

The next tier has a few players on the rise, and maybe 1-2 may joing tier two by the end of July.

 

.684 Dalbec (still waiting for a longer hot streak)

.668 Plawecky (on IL)

.651 Vaz (hoping he can find that near .800 level, again)

.585 Marwin (actually doing better)

.557 Chavis (last gasp)

.522 Santana (on IL)

 

Last 14 Days (20+ PAs)

1.161 JD

1.121 Kike

1.120 Devers

.820 Renfroe

.819 Bogey

.755 Marwin

.748 Dalbec (.827 last 28 days)

.708 Verdugo

.569 Vaz

 

 

 

I keep hoping for Pedey clone to show up but future utility guy Arroyo keeps showing up....

[oldtimer]

What's going on with our starting pitching? Everyone but Pivetta has been scored on in the first inning. Today 3 runs is tough to overcome and the BP can't hold opponents down every game. Let's hope Sale can get back in early August and is effective when he returns.

 

I watched most of the Rays vs Blue Jays games. The Rays did a lot of pitching to the outside corner and enough of the Jays kept trying to pull to thwart their chances.

[moonslav59]

Great question. The latter is preferable to the former--3 championships are better than 1. HOWEVER, a GM can make a huge and arrogant blunder in striving for the latter and not the former. This was arguably Brian Cashman's mistake over the last several seasons--he held on to his prospects like they were gold, didn't adequately strengthen his teams at the deadline, and the Yankees came up short in the playoffs. Cashman was playing the long game, hoping to build a dynasty, but look at where the Yankees are today. Accordingly, I believe an organization must go all in (within reasonable parameters) when the opportunity presents itself. Championships are elusive and when you have an opportunity to win one, you increase the odds by adding contributing players to your team and subtracting from your farm system.

 

Let's face it, the Cubs were right to give up Torres for Chapman even though Chapman was a rental. So many top prospects never live up to the hype anyway and even if they look like the real deal, as Torres did for a number of seasons, so many things can go wrong--look at Torres now. Accordingly, when your team has an opportunity to win a championship, you go for it and must be willing to subtract talent from your farm system.

 

Jeter Downs seems like a tradable asset to me. First, he is underperforming so far this year and has been a disappointment. Of course, we are dealing with a small sample size and Downs is adjusting to AAA. He could have a big second half. Second, I think N.Yorke is the future starting 2b for the Red Sox and so Downs isn't needed long term. I also think the Red Sox and Bogaerts will come to a long term agreement and so Downs isn't needed at SS either.

 

I generally don't like trading away quality prospects, but winning a championship is more important than holding on to some prospect who you believe is going to be the next great Hall-of-Fame player but more often than not doesn't live up to the hype.

 

I don’t think you trade great prospects for rentals every year you have a good chance of making a strong run at a ring. It’s all about timing.

 

I agree on your Cubs example. I’m not sure this Sox team and situation warrants big moves.

[notin]

I don’t think you trade great prospects for rentals every year you have a good chance of making a strong run at a ring. It’s all about timing.

 

I agree on your Cubs example. I’m not sure this Sox team and situation warrants big moves.

 

The Cubs we’re trying to win for the first time since Teddy Roosevelt was president and the USA only had 46 states. I think they can be excused for going overboard in that trade and we can all agree the circumstances make it the exception, not the rule…

[notin]

Great question. The latter is preferable to the former--3 championships are better than 1. HOWEVER, a GM can make a huge and arrogant blunder in striving for the latter and not the former. This was arguably Brian Cashman's mistake over the last several seasons--he held on to his prospects like they were gold, didn't adequately strengthen his teams at the deadline, and the Yankees came up short in the playoffs. Cashman was playing the long game, hoping to build a dynasty, but look at where the Yankees are today. Accordingly, I believe an organization must go all in (within reasonable parameters) when the opportunity presents itself. Championships are elusive and when you have an opportunity to win one, you increase the odds by adding contributing players to your team and subtracting from your farm system.

 

Let's face it, the Cubs were right to give up Torres for Chapman even though Chapman was a rental. So many top prospects never live up to the hype anyway and even if they look like the real deal, as Torres did for a number of seasons, so many things can go wrong--look at Torres now. Accordingly, when your team has an opportunity to win a championship, you go for it and must be willing to subtract talent from your farm system.

 

Jeter Downs seems like a tradable asset to me. First, he is underperforming so far this year and has been a disappointment. Of course, we are dealing with a small sample size and Downs is adjusting to AAA. He could have a big second half. Second, I think N.Yorke is the future starting 2b for the Red Sox and so Downs isn't needed long term. I also think the Red Sox and Bogaerts will come to a long term agreement and so Downs isn't needed at SS either.

 

I generally don't like trading away quality prospects, but winning a championship is more important than holding on to some prospect who you believe is going to be the next great Hall-of-Fame player but more often than not doesn't live up to the hype.

 

1. The Cubs trade was not the norm. Since the Cubs had last won World Series prior, Arizona was granted statehood, seen major cities spring up, gotten a baseball team AND WON A WORLD SERIES!! For the Cubs, Torres/Chapman was allowed. But for any other team it would have been stupid. Like Bagwell trade stupid.

 

2. Nick Yorke graduated high school last year. It might be a tad early to crown him Second Baseman of the Future. And even if he is, who plays there until he arrives?

 

3. Trading Jeter Downs is not a horrible idea on its own. He wasn’t even Bloom’s first choice in the deal in which he was acquired. But trading Downs for a rental would be stupid. Most two month rental players/pitchers can be had for a lot less than a consensus top 100 prospect. A lot less…

[moonslav59]

The Cubs we’re trying to win for the first time since Teddy Roosevelt was president and the USA only had 46 states. I think they can be excused for going overboard in that trade and we can all agree the circumstances make it the exception, not the rule…

 

Yes, and what about this year sets it apart from others?

 

I get the point about planning for the future, and maybe we never have a chance like this over the next 3-4 years, and we could look back and say, this was the summer we should have done something to get us over the top, but it doesn't seem to have that feel, to me.

 

I'm not saying I don't like our chances, but I don't get the sense our window is closing, soon. It seems to be opening wider in near-future years.

 

If we look at the deals we made in 2018, that seemingly put us over the top, no top prospects were dealt. I see maybe something like that attempted.

[notin]

Yes, and what about this year sets it apart from others?

 

I get the point about planning for the future, and maybe we never have a chance like this over the next 3-4 years, and we could look back and say, this was the summer we should have done something to get us over the top, but it doesn't seem to have that feel, to me.

 

I'm not saying I don't like our chances, but I don't get the sense our window is closing, soon. It seems to be opening wider in near-future years.

 

If we look at the deals we made in 2018, that seemingly put us over the top, no top prospects were dealt. I see maybe something like that attempted.

 

I think the Sox will do something, but there is a massive grey area in between “doing nothing” and “unloading the farm for a player whose gone in two months”…

[moonslav59]

I think the Sox will do something, but there is a massive grey area in between “doing nothing” and “unloading the farm for a player whose gone in two months”…

 

When is the last time we made a bid deadline deal where we gave up a top 3 or 4 prospect for a rental, and did it work?

 

I agree, we will likely make moves like 2018. Something in between.

[moonslav59]

According to cots, we are $4.53M under the tax line. If we assume we want to stay under the line, we can make a trade or two that adds a net salary of about $4.5M. Here are some players who are owed that amount or less on teams that are out of it or may be by the deadline. The salaries are pro-rated to about 1/3 the seasonal luxury tax amount. Remember, these players will take the place of a player we are paying about $250-300+K minimum for the remainder of the season, so that can be deducted from what we add.

 

I will start with the worst teams:

 

(I list mostly salary dump type players, because I feel they will not need much return value to acquire.)

 

AZ

K Marte $1.7M +$4.8M in 2022 + option for 2023 + 2024

 

BAL

Mancini $1.7M +1 arb

Means $200K + 3 arbs (would cost a lot in return)

 

PIT

Polanco $3.9M/1 (used only to lessen the return not to play)

Frazier $1.5M + 1 arb

Anderson $800K

Rodriguez $600K + 2 arbs

 

TEX

Gibson $3.2M +$9.3M in 2022

Gallo $2.1M + 1 arb

Kennedy $800K

 

KCR

Duffy $4.4M

Santana $3.0M + $8.9M in 2022

 

COL

CJ Cron $400K/1

J Gray $2.1M/1

Marquez $2.9M + $8.6M 2022 & 2023+ option '24

 

MN

Berrios $2.1M + 1 arb

Buxton $1.7M + 1 arb

Rogers $2.1M + 1 arb

 

MIA

S Marte $4.2M/1

Aguilar $1.5M + 1 arb

Bleier $500K + 1 arb

 

DET

Boyd $2.2M + arb

Cisnero $320K + 2 arbs

 

I will look at these teams, later:

WSH

STL

PHI

Cubs

ATL

LAA

TOR

 

[Larry Cook]

I think hang’em Chaim keeps the same approach he used this offseason and makes an “under the radar” trade that leaves us all scratching our head, but pays dividends in the remainder of the year,

 

I hope he does not exceed the tax threshold this year as we have payroll challenges ahead and need 2021 to be clean!

[moonslav59]

BTV accepted these deals. (I am not saying I'd make them.)

 

Groome, Ward and Chavis

 

to KCR

Danny Duffy, Carlos Santana & $2M (just enough to keep us under)

 

to PIT

Tyler Anderson, Richard Rodriguez & Gregory Polanco (dump)

________________________________

 

Groome, Ward, Chavis & Lopez

 

to DET

Matthew Boyd & Jose Cisnero

 

to TEX

Kyle Gibson

Ian Kennedy

 

to COL

CJ Cron & Jon Gray

__________________________

 

A wild one...

Groome, Ward, Chavis, Ro Hernandez & Yorke

 

to MIA

Starling Marte

Richard Bleier

Jesus Aguilar

 

 

 

[Fan_since_Boggs]

When is the last time we made a bid deadline deal where we gave up a top 3 or 4 prospect for a rental, and did it work?

 

I agree, we will likely make moves like 2018. Something in between.

 

Off the top of my head....

 

I remember the Hanley trade. It didn't happen at the deadline, but in the offseason. Even though Hanley had a nice career, we don't look back at that trade with regret--the Red Sox don't win a championship in 2007 without Beckett.

 

The Craig Kimbrel trade didn't occur at the deadline, but the Red Sox gave up some quality prospects in Margot and Logan Allen.

 

The Sale trade didn't occur at the deadline but the Red Sox gave up stud prospects, such as Moncada and Kopech.

 

As far as deadline deals go, the Red Sox traded top pitching prospect Anderson Espinoza for Drew Pomeranz. The Red Sox won that deal--Pomeranz had an excellent year in 2017.

 

The other trade deadline deal that comes to mind: trading J.Beeks for Nathan Eovaldi, but I don't think Beeks was a top prospect, he was just OK. The Red Sox won that trade big time.

Edited July 11, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Fan_since_Boggs]

2. Nick Yorke graduated high school last year. It might be a tad early to crown him Second Baseman of the Future. And even if he is, who plays there until he arrives?

 

3. Trading Jeter Downs is not a horrible idea on its own. He wasn’t even Bloom’s first choice in the deal in which he was acquired. But trading Downs for a rental would be stupid. Most two month rental players/pitchers can be had for a lot less than a consensus top 100 prospect. A lot less…

At this point, Downs can't be the Red Sox starting second baseman next year anyway--he isn't hitting. Moreover, I think Duran is basically a lock to be the starting CF next year and that means that the Red Sox will have Hernandez and Arroyo for 2b next year. They have Arroyo for 2023, but they might want to pick up someone if they aren't fully confident in Arroyo. Yorke should be ready by 2024. Of course, Yorke might be a total flop but the same could be said for Downs.

 

I'm not a big fan of trading for rentals but the top trade market bullpen arm, Kimbrel, is not a rental. A starter like Kyle Gibson wouldn't be a rental either.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

to KCR

Danny Duffy, Carlos Santana & $2M (just enough to keep us under)

 

I like this idea, but I would try to unload Dalbec on the Royals. The Royals have a young 1b of the future (Pratto, who looks awesome) and this is why Santana could be traded, but the Royals might want to look at Dalbec at 3b. Dozier looks like a bust and I don't if the Royals have any solid 3b plans for the future. And if the Red Sox acquire Santana, they have no room for Dalbec.

 

Since the Royals are rebuilding, they are the kind of team that can afford to give Dalbec at bats at the major league level.

 

I don't know if the Royals would have any interest in Downs, but I would be willing to include Downs in the trade. I would also be open to trading Groome, but not both Downs and Groome.

 

If not Duffy, then Zimmer? I guess that goes back to the debate on whether the Red Sox should trade for a starting pitcher or a relief pitcher.

Edited July 11, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

I like this idea, but I would try to unload Dalbec on the Royals. The Royals have a young 1b of the future (Pratto, who looks awesome) and this is why Santana could be traded, but the Royals might want to look at Dalbec at 3b. Dozier looks like a bust and I don't if the Royals have any solid 3b plans for the future. And if the Red Sox acquire Santana, they have no room for Dalbec.

 

Since the Royals are rebuilding, they are the kind of team that can afford to give Dalbec at bats at the major league level.

 

I don't know if the Royals would have any interest in Downs, but I would be willing to include Downs in the trade. I would also be open to trading Groome, but not both Downs and Groome.

 

If not Duffy, then Zimmer? I guess that goes back to the debate on whether the Red Sox should trade for a starting pitcher or a relief pitcher.

BTV has Downs worth more than 2 times what Santana+Duffy are worth.

 

I’m not sure why you are so down on Downs over 2 months of meh hitting,

[Nick]

According to cots, we are $4.53M under the tax line. If we assume we want to stay under the line, we can make a trade or two that adds a net salary of about $4.5M. Here are some players who are owed that amount or less on teams that are out of it or may be by the deadline. The salaries are pro-rated to about 1/3 the seasonal luxury tax amount. Remember, these players will take the place of a player we are paying about $250-300+K minimum for the remainder of the season, so that can be deducted from what we add.

 

I will start with the worst teams:

 

(I list mostly salary dump type players, because I feel they will not need much return value to acquire.)

 

AZ

K Marte $1.7M +$4.8M in 2022 + option for 2023 + 2024

 

BAL

Mancini $1.7M +1 arb

Means $200K + 3 arbs (would cost a lot in return)

 

PIT

Polanco $3.9M/1 (used only to lessen the return not to play)

Frazier $1.5M + 1 arb

Anderson $800K

Rodriguez $600K + 2 arbs

 

TEX

Gibson $3.2M +$9.3M in 2022

Gallo $2.1M + 1 arb

Kennedy $800K

 

KCR

Duffy $4.4M

Santana $3.0M + $8.9M in 2022

 

COL

CJ Cron $400K/1

J Gray $2.1M/1

Marquez $2.9M + $8.6M 2022 & 2023+ option '24

 

MN

Berrios $2.1M + 1 arb

Buxton $1.7M + 1 arb

Rogers $2.1M + 1 arb

 

MIA

S Marte $4.2M/1

Aguilar $1.5M + 1 arb

Bleier $500K + 1 arb

 

DET

Boyd $2.2M + arb

Cisnero $320K + 2 arbs

 

I will look at these teams, later:

WSH

STL

PHI

Cubs

ATL

LAA

TOR

 

 

I've mentioned this several times. Cot's does not have a value filled in for Santana. I've e-mailed them but no action so far. It will be a portion of $1.75M, I believe the major league contract kicked in sometime in May.

[Nick]

You Don't Have to Baby this Guy

 

Cole completed his memorable night by gassing a 99.1 mph fastball past Yordan Alvarez, letting loose a guttural roar. The right-hander’s 12th strikeout came on his 129th pitch, a career high and the most thrown by any pitcher in the Majors this season, surpassing a 126-pitch effort by the Dodgers’ Trevor Bauer.

 

Beat Houston 1-0. We don't have this type of pitcher on our staff right now.

[Bellhorn04]

You Don't Have to Baby this Guy

 

Cole completed his memorable night by gassing a 99.1 mph fastball past Yordan Alvarez, letting loose a guttural roar. The right-hander’s 12th strikeout came on his 129th pitch, a career high and the most thrown by any pitcher in the Majors this season, surpassing a 126-pitch effort by the Dodgers’ Trevor Bauer.

 

Beat Houston 1-0. We don't have this type of pitcher on our staff right now.

 

Yeah, there's a reason they're paying him $36 million a year.

[Kimmi]

So, you don't think any other team would have paid Betts that amount last winter?

 

No, I do not.

 

At the very least, at the time the deal was given, I think Mookie would have accepted less. There were a lot of concerns at the time about what free agent contracts would look like. There was speculation that free agents like Mookie might take a one year deal to ride out the pandemic.

[Kimmi]

I think you have to give Friedman and the Dodgers some credit for prescience. They judged that the pandemic would not have lasting financial repercussions.

 

Mookie's deal looks vastly better than what Lindor got.

 

Things look good for them now, but I think the Dodgers took a gamble that they didn't have to take.

[Bellhorn04]

Things look good for them now, but I think the Dodgers took a gamble that they didn't have to take.

 

In 2013 the Dodgers signed a 25 year, $8.35 billion TV deal. They should be swimming in ridiculous amounts of money for a long time.

[Kimmi]

In 2013 the Dodgers signed a 25 year, $8.35 billion TV deal. They should be swimming in ridiculous amounts of money for a long time.

 

Of course they can afford the deal. So could the Red Sox. That's not a good reason to outbid yourself.