A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[notin]

Not sure I want to pay a prospect AND $16M for 2022 for Kimbrel.....Bloom won't do it....we already passed on him in the past when he signed with the cubs.

 

We could probably bring Barnes back for $16 million…

[Bellhorn04]

I did not get satisfactory answer I think from Bellhorn (who is much smarter than me) about how to evaluate a player that went on to sign a long term contract with the club that they were traded to as a free agent?

 

Did we not get 5 years of Verdugo's service for Betts' one year of service, along with those of Wong and Downs?

 

Had Betts signed with the Yankees after spending one year with the Dodgers, isn't the trade with the Dodgers evaluated on the merits of Betts performance as a Dodger and not Dodgers and the Yankees?

 

Not sure how Betts new twelve year contract factors into the trade when Betts only had one more year with the Sox.

 

Inquiring minds want to know.

 

I get your point and don't necessarily disagree.

 

The only catch here, and it can't really be factored in by any mathematical method, is that Betts signed an extension with the Dodgers. He did not get to free agency. That's the catch.

 

And it was a relatively team-friendly deal, when you factor in the deferrals.

 

So this was a big extra benefit to the Dodgers. And if the Red Sox had any aspirations of bidding on Mookie in free agency, which no one really knows about, such aspirations were obviously snuffed out by this.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

A one year 16 million dollar contract for Kimbrel next season is not a major economic commitment for the Red Sox. In fact, in some ways it is a bargain. The Red Sox are a big market team and should be willing to spend a little $$$ especially if they can avoid a risky long term deal. In trading for Kimbrel, the Red Sox get a dominant closer for one full season (2022) and a playoff run that could end in a championship (2021). We also can't forget that two of the Red Sox's best bullpen arms are free agents at the end of the year--Barnes and Ottavino--and so the Red Sox will need to address the bulpen one way or the other. Barnes isn't going to want a one year deal, do you want to resign Barnes to a lucrative multi-year contract?

 

Kimbrel could be a postseason weapon for the Red Sox, he could be the difference between winning and losing a 7 game series.

Edited July 8, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

Watch out for a couple of sleepers for the Red Sox bullpen next year including German (will likely be moved to the pen), Feltman, and Scherff. All three will likely be added to the 40 man roster after the season.

 

 

I'd be surprised any of these 3 are protected or taken in the Rule 5 draft.

 

My guess is, we protect 5-6 players.

 

Jecorrah Arnold

Brayan Bello

Cole Brannen

Gary Calvo

Marco Cardoso

Pedro Castellanos

Felix Cepeda

Kole Cottam

Kutter Crawford

Ricardo Cubillan

Osvaldo De La Rosa

Tyler Dearden

Jonathan Diaz

Danny Diaz

Jeter Downs

Jarren Duran

Tyler Esplin

Durbin Feltman

Ryan Fernandez

Ryan Fitzgerald

Antoni Flores

Frank German

Rio Gomez

Devlin Granberg

Gilberto Jimenez

Jose Larez

Dominic LoBrutto

Bryan Lucas

Charlie Madden

Alan Marrero

Elih Marrero

Joan Martinez

Alexander Montero

Robinson Montero

Oddanier Mosqueda

Brendan Nail

Brett Netzer

Tanner Nishioka

Kaleb Ort

Yusniel Padron-Artiles

Aaron Perry

Beiker Pineda

Antonio Police

AJ Politi

Ceddanne Rafaela

Oscar Rangel

Tyreque Reed

Jesus Rosillo

Yasel Santana

Zach Schellinger

Alex Scherff

John Schreiber

Gregori Segovia

Chase Shugart

Miguel Suero

Jake Thompson

Wilker Vargas

Thaddeus Ward

Grant Williams

Josh Winckowski

 

I'm not sure why Groome was taken off this list on soxprospects.com, but I think he is Rule 5 eligible, this year and is a possible protectee.

Edited July 8, 2021 by moonslav59

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Agree with your selections, but I would add German to that list. German hasn't impressed as a starter, but he has really good stuff and profiles as a quality reliever. Also, if Scherff continues to impress after his Double A promotion, he gets protected. I am less certain about Feltman.

 

Edit: Duran will obviously be added. Groome is already on the 40 man and that will continue unless of course he is traded.

 

Edit2: maybe I'm wrong about German--his numbers do suck at Double A, don't they? LOL. Kutter Crawford is an interesting guy. Is he the kind of pitcher who could take off as a reliever? His Double A numbers are impressive--strikeout and walk totals.

Edited July 8, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

Agree with your selections, but I would add German to that list. Also, if Scherff continues to impress after his Double A promotion, he gets protected. I am less certain about Feltman.

 

What has German done to impress you?

 

I'm not doubting your knowledge, but he's got a 5.85 ERA in AA with an .825 OPS against.

 

Scherff has looked better and was promoted to AA, but I'm not sure anyone would draft him and keep him on their 26 for a full year. I like him, but I'm thinking we don't need to protect him to keep him.

 

Feltman's stock has been falling. I think German, Scherff, Groome, Ort and maybe even Reed are ahead of him. Perhaps others, too.

 

[Fan_since_Boggs]

What has German done to impress you?

 

His fastball/changeup combination. I'm more impressed with his scouting reports, and potential as a reliever, than his current numbers at Double A. His raw stuff should improve as a one inning reliever--he fastball is mid 90s (as a starter) and can go higher as a one inning reliever.

 

But his numbers as a starter are worse than I thought. His ratios suck and so maybe I wouldn't bother protecting him. I would like to see the Red Sox move him to the bullpen, just to see if he can show signs of dominance as a one inning reliever.

 

edit: Kutter Crawford is a dark horse for the 40-man. He has some impressive ratios but to what extent would his stuff play up as a one inning reliever? That's the big question.

Edited July 8, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Does it make sense to put Ward on the 40 man? Or maybe he goes on the 40 man and is moved to the 60 day IL? Edited July 8, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[notin]

Does it make sense to put Ward on the 40 man? Or maybe he goes on the 40 man and is moved to the 60 day IL?

 

No.

 

Putting him on the 60 day IL starts his service clock. It's the same reason Mata is not on it....

[moonslav59]

His fastball/changeup combination. I'm more impressed with his scouting reports, and potential as a reliever, than his current numbers at Double A. His raw stuff should improve as a one inning reliever--he fastball is mid 90s (as a starter) and can go higher as a one inning reliever.

 

But his numbers as a starter are worse than I thought. His ratios suck and so maybe I wouldn't bother protecting him. I would like to see the Red Sox move him to the bullpen, just to see if he can show signs of dominance as a one inning reliever.

 

edit: Kutter Crawford is a dark horse for the 40-man. He has some impressive ratios but to what extent would his stuff play up as a one inning reliever? That's the big question.

 

Fair enough.

 

With 26 men, now, maybe teams might stretch to take talented prospects who need more time, but there must be dozens of guys like them and better bets, too.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

After taking a closer look at this, I think the following will happen as it pertains to next year's 40 man roster.

German: will not be protected

Feltman: tough call, maybe

Alex Scherff: he has looked great with the move to the bullpen, impressive stuff. Now in Double A. If he continues on his current trajectory, he will be protected.

Kutter Crawford: a dark horse candidate for the 40 man roster -- impressive ratios but how does he profile as a reliever?

Kaleb Ort: no idea.

 

Projecting the Red Sox bullpen next year, and working on the hopeful assumption they trade for Kimbrel at the deadline. Kimbrel is needed next year even more than this year.

8 bullpen slots, since I'm giving the Red Sox 6 starting pitchers

Kimbrel

Taylor

Hernandez

Sawarmura

Braiser

Bazardo

7. ?

8. ?

possibilities:

Valdez - one option remaining

Scherff - 3 options

Feltman - 3 options

Crawford - 3 options

Kaleb Ort?

Rios - out of options and so I doubt he makes the 40 man roster.

Trade or free agent?

Edited July 9, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Fan_since_Boggs]

No.

 

Putting him on the 60 day IL starts his service clock. It's the same reason Mata is not on it....

 

And since Ward had TJ Surgery, no one will take him in the Rule 5 draft, and so it doesn't make sense to put him on the 40 man.

 

Hold it, Mata is on the 40-man roster. I'm now totally confused.

 

edit: OK, I think I have it figured out. Mata was placed on the 40-man roster prior to getting injured and needing TJ Surgery. Ward is different in that he needed TJ Surgery prior to getting placed on the 40 man. As such, the Red Sox aren't going to place Ward on next year's 40 man roster.

Edited July 9, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[moonslav59]

One major factor is the number of FAs Bloom expects to sign.

 

His M.O., under an entirely different budget structure was always bulk and quantity as he sought hidden gems.

 

The more FAs he signs, the less Rule 5's he can protect. To me, it probably makes more sense to sign 2-3 bigger FAs rather than 4-5 lesser ones. That is new for him, but it doesn't mean he can't nail his signings.

 

(It also doesn't mean that will be his strategy.)

 

To me, the clear signings we'll need are re-signing or replacing ERod, Barnes & Ottavino.

 

1B, 2B, CF, Utility and pitching depth can possibly be filled from within the system, or at least we'll give a few players/prospects a chance to wn those slots.

 

It looks like Kike and Arroyo might have already won 2 slots. Dalbec, Duran and others may show they deserve a 2022 chance.

 

The pitching staff loses ERod, Barnes, Ottavino and likely Richards. We may sign 4 pitchers.

 

40 Man

 

SP

Sale

____

Eovaldi

Pivetta

Perez

Whitlock

Seabold

Mata

Groome

 

RP

____

____

Houck

DHern

Sawamura

Taylor

Brasier

Valdez

Bazardo

 

C

Vazquez

Plawecki or Wong

Ronaldo Hernandez

 

IF

Dalbec

Arroyo

Bogey

Devers

 

OF

Verdugo

Kike

Renfroe

Duran

JD (DH)

Cordero

Rosario

 

Gone:

Richards, Marwin, Chavis, Andriese, Workman, Santana, Rios, Arauz, Wilson, Potts

 

That's 32 keepers, including 3 re-signed/replaced (ERod, Barnes and Ottavino) and 10 goners.

 

8 slots go to Rule 5 players or more FAs(IF or P) than the 3 sure bets, I suggested.

 

Sure Rule 5:

Duran

Downs

Jimenez

Bello

 

Possible Rule 5:

Ward

Winckowski

Ort

T Reed

German

Scherff

Feltman

 

Longshot Rule 5:

Cottam

Castellanos

Crawford

Dearden

 

Edited July 9, 2021 by moonslav59

[Fan_since_Boggs]

While I don't believe Duran will be rushed into a starting role this year, I do believe he will be the starting CF beginning next season, with Arroyo and Kike as the 2b options, and Kike providing OF depth.

 

For 2021, Duran will see the big leagues in September and will be on the postseason roster as a backup OF and base runner, but he starts in CF next year. I think that is locked in.

[moonslav59]

While I don't believe Duran will be rushed into a starting role this year, I do believe he will be the starting CF beginning next season, with Arroyo and Kike as the 2b options, and Kike providing OF depth.

 

For 2021, Duran will see the big leagues in September and will be on the postseason roster as a backup OF and base runner, but he starts in CF next year. I think that is locked in.

 

Maybe locked he gets a chance, but he has to win and keep the job.

[moonslav59]

And since Ward had TJ Surgery, no one will take him in the Rule 5 draft, and so it doesn't make sense to put him on the 40 man.

 

Hold it, Mata is on the 40-man roster. I'm now totally confused.

 

edit: OK, I think I have it figured out. Mata was placed on the 40-man roster prior to getting injured and needing TJ Surgery. Ward is different in that he needed TJ Surgery prior to getting placed on the 40 man. As such, the Red Sox aren't going to place Ward on next year's 40 man roster.

 

It's not a lock nobody takes Ward to sit on their 26 all year, but I doubt it.

[Hugh2]

It's not a lock nobody takes Ward to sit on their 26 all year, but I doubt it.

 

Yeah, I think the Sox might have to gamble with Ward, but I could see someone Whitlocking him.

[oldtimer]

While I don't believe Duran will be rushed into a starting role this year, I do believe he will be the starting CF beginning next season, with Arroyo and Kike as the 2b options, and Kike providing OF depth.

 

For 2021, Duran will see the big leagues in September and will be on the postseason roster as a backup OF and base runner, but he starts in CF next year. I think that is locked in.

 

The Sox didn't remove him from Olympics consideration to bring him up in September. He will be up following the AS break.

[Hugh2]

The Sox didn't remove him from Olympics consideration to bring him up in September. He will be up following the AS break.

 

The Sox didn’t technically remove him from the Olympics. He was left off the roster because the Sox might call him up.

 

They don’t have alternates, which is stupid.

[moonslav59]

Duran will not be called up to be on the bench.

 

The only guy worthy of sitting is MAYBE Dalbec. We could move Kike to 1B, but I seriously doubt that is the plan.

[Kimmi]

The trouble with deadline deals is that they can be disruptive to the players and their families. That can affect performance. You may not get what you think you are getting. You are taking a chance. Some work out , some don't. Personally, I think the Sox are pretty well set. I wouldn't be too quick to pull the trigger on a last minute trade.

 

I mostly agree with this. I think the Sox are pretty well set too. That said, acquiring the right player can affect performance in a positive way.

 

Acquiring or not acquiring players at the deadline can also send one of two opposing messages to the team, either the FO thinks the team is good enough as is, or the FO doesn't think the team is good enough to warrant spending resources to make improvements. With the Sox being in 1st place, I would think the former would be the message that is sent, but getting the team to buy into this is key. Cora is very good at that type of thing.

[Kimmi]

Not sure I want to pay a prospect AND $16M for 2022 for Kimbrel.....Bloom won't do it....we already passed on him in the past when he signed with the cubs.

 

Absolutely not.

[Kimmi]

I get your point and don't necessarily disagree.

 

The only catch here, and it can't really be factored in by any mathematical method, is that Betts signed an extension with the Dodgers. He did not get to free agency. That's the catch.

 

And it was a relatively team-friendly deal, when you factor in the deferrals.

 

So this was a big extra benefit to the Dodgers. And if the Red Sox had any aspirations of bidding on Mookie in free agency, which no one really knows about, such aspirations were obviously snuffed out by this.

 

Deferrals or not, I have to disagree with the statement that this was a team friendly deal, given the uncertainty of the COVID situation. I am sincerely still very much surprised that the Dodgers gave Mookie such a large contract, IMO, bidding against only themselves.

[moonslav59]

Deferrals or not, I have to disagree with the statement that this was a team friendly deal, given the uncertainty of the COVID situation. I am sincerely still very much surprised that the Dodgers gave Mookie such a large contract, IMO, bidding against only themselves.

 

So, you don't think any other team would have paid Betts that amount last winter?

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm not interested in Kimbrel, three years older -- both of us. He had me literally hyperventilating in the '18 postseason, and I don't think my heart could take another October with him and Barnes in the 8th and 9th.

 

There are other options on teams that may be sellers, like Rodriguez on Pitt or Hand on Wash... and I'd even prefer Bard from Col. Bard's best days were in Boston as a set-up man, and he may be more receptive to the role than convincing a borderline Cooperstown closer to caddy.

[Bellhorn04]

Deferrals or not, I have to disagree with the statement that this was a team friendly deal, given the uncertainty of the COVID situation. I am sincerely still very much surprised that the Dodgers gave Mookie such a large contract, IMO, bidding against only themselves.

 

I think you have to give Friedman and the Dodgers some credit for prescience. They judged that the pandemic would not have lasting financial repercussions.

 

Mookie's deal looks vastly better than what Lindor got.

[Bellhorn04]

So, you don't think any other team would have paid Betts that amount last winter?

 

Think about it. The Red Sox offer of 10/300 (AAV of 30) has been characterized as a starting bid, some even call it a lowball offer.

 

The Dodgers got him for 6.5 million more than that in present dollars, and an AAV that's 4.45 million lower than that.

[moonslav59]

Think about it. The Red Sox offer of 10/300 (AAV of 30) has been characterized as a starting bid, some even call it a lowball offer.

 

The Dodgers got him for 6.5 million more than that in present dollars, and an AAV that's 4.45 million lower than that.

 

Sounds like the type of deal more than just one team would have done, including the Sox. Plus, there is debate over just what the AVV is.

[Bellhorn04]

Sounds like the type of deal more than just one team would have done, including the Sox. Plus, there is debate over just what the AVV is.

 

Yeah, I think I might e-mail Cot's Contracts about the AAV thing. Spotrac shows it as 25.55.

[moonslav59]

Yeah, I think I might e-mail Cot's Contracts about the AAV thing. Spotrac shows it as 25.55.

 

If it's $25.6, I think the Sox would have done that.

 

That's still a big chunk of change that would radically alter future financial decisions for many years ahead, and we'd no longer have Verdugo, Downs and Wong, but if you include the extension as part of the trade, it gets more interesting.