A Realistic View at 2021: Part II

[mvp 78]

Of all the things that can be irksome about the save stat, my personal #1 is the way announcers think it's necessary to specify whether it's a 'save situation' or not, as if that's really important. Drives me nuts.

 

And Fenway stands as one!

[moonslav59]

Good article on MassLive (subscription required for this piece) about how Bloom is gathering young, starting pitching talent. He's very high on several young pitchers, detailing pitches they have and pitches they are working on.

 

Whitlock as a Rule 5 player is working not only to help in a long relief role for Sox in 2021 but expanding his pitches to return to starting pitcher.

 

Houck is working on a third pitch but Bloom thinks his slider is special and he could become one of those pitchers that may thrive as a starter only having two pitches.

 

Noah Song will reapply to get relief from his military commitment in May. His fastball had topped 97 and he has several secondary pitches to go alone with it. Potential high ceiling guy.

 

Bryan Matta's elbow issue has raised some concerns, reading between the lines. A top prospect.

 

Thaddeus Ward, Conner Seabold, Chris Murphy, Frank German, Josh Winckowski and Chi-Jung Lui were other pitchers mentioned.

 

He said he's been on the job for 17 months and has not seen a minor league game and THAT's been difficult.

 

His primary focus (farm system) is developing young pitching talent right now.

 

Thanks for this very insightful summary.

 

It is good to see SP'ing being a major priority and focus for our farm. It seems like it's been about 40 years since we've had numerous good starters come up from the farm at about the same time.

[mvp 78]

@MattRyCollins

Red Sox option Tanner Houck to Worcester

 

Anger rising... rising...

[dgalehouse]

Of all the things that can be irksome about the save stat, my personal #1 is the way announcers think it's necessary to specify whether it's a 'save situation' or not, as if that's really important. Drives me nuts.

The announcers say so many stupid things that it is hard to keep track of them.

[dgalehouse]

Closing ain't easy. The Rays managed two legitimate blown saves last night . I thought that last kid was going to hyperventilate on the mound.

[jad]

The announcers say so many stupid things that it is hard to keep track of them.

 

Exactly what would you like them to talk about after a 1-1 pitch in the dirt of a 7-1 game in the 6th inning? dWAR? FanGraphs ratings? the trade deadline? launch angles? ...

[dgalehouse]

Exactly what would you like them to talk about after a 1-1 pitch in the dirt of a 7-1 game in the 6th inning? dWAR? FanGraphs ratings? the trade deadline? launch angles? ...

 

I would like them to remind us yet again that a replay has to be conclusive to overturn the call on the field.

[moonslav59]

The announcers say so many stupid things that it is hard to keep track of them.

 

They also state and restate the painfully obvious things.

[jad]

I would like them to remind us yet again that a replay has to be conclusive to overturn the call on the field.

 

Exactly. I have never forgiven Curt Gowdy, in a game with the RS (rarely) ahead by a run, talking about his wife planting petunias. Then, an inning later, as the opposing team hit a walk-off 3-run homer, BRIEFLY (which almost never happened with Gowdy!) losing his composure and saying "Oh no and it's gone!"

 

(Why are my brain cells tied up with crap like this instead of focusing on where I left my glasses?)

[moonslav59]

Big assumption here, but assume every Sox pitcher is 100% healthy and pitching to their norm, which is tough for Richards, because his "norm" was like 6 years ago- knda the same with Eovaldi and his last full season of good pitching.)

 

Rank our starters by how good you think they are and where they fall in our 2021 rotation. Here's my take:

 

1. Sale (no brainer)

2. ERod (several good seasons in a row)

3. Richards (2014-2015 version)

4. Eovaldi (2013 & 2018 versions) Could swap w Eovaldi

5. Houck (small sample size choice, here)

6T. Pivetta & Perez

Edited April 7, 2021 by moonslav59

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Thanks for this very insightful summary.

 

It is good to see SP'ing being a major priority and focus for our farm. It seems like it's been about 40 years since we've had numerous good starters come up from the farm at about the same time.

 

It pretty much was 40 years ago, when the early '80s Sox staff was all homegrown. Hurst (1st round) and Tudor (3rd) were drafted in '76, Ojeda signed in '78, Nipper (8th) and Boyd (16th round!) were drafted in '80. The pinnacle came in the '83 draft when the Sox picked Clemens 19th overall.

 

Leave it to Duquette, Epstein and their ilk to deem that using draft picks on pitching was too unreliable; better to load up on positional talent and make trades or splurge on free agents whenever pitching was needed to make a run.

[moonslav59]

It pretty much was 40 years ago, when the early '80s Sox staff was all homegrown. Hurst (1st round) and Tudor (3rd) were drafted in '76, Ojeda signed in '78, Nipper (8th) and Boyd (16th round!) were drafted in '80. The pinnacle came in the '83 draft when the Sox picked Clemens 19th overall.

 

Leave it to Duquette, Epstein and their ilk to deem that using draft picks on pitching was too unreliable; better to load up on positional talent and make trades or splurge on free agents whenever pitching was needed to make a run.

 

They did seem to neglect drafting pitchers to some extent, but they were also God-awful bad at it, so maybe it wasn't such a bad idea in that light.

 

Here's a summary, since 2001, of our top draft picks, in terms of pitching:

 

2001: our 1st pick was Lester, we then picked a pitcher in 3 of the next 5 picks (none of note)

2002: 1st pick Shoppach (only 1 of top 5 picks was a pitcher).

2003: David Murphy #1. 3 of top 6 were pitchers.

2004: Pedey. Next 4 were pitchers.

2005: Ellsbury. Next 3 of 4 were pitchers (Craih hansen, Buch & Bowden)

2006: Jason Place. Next 4 were pitchers (Masterson)

2007: LHP Nick Hagadone (traded). 2 of next 4 were pitchers.

2008: Casey Kelly (traded for AGon). 3 of next 4 pitchers (S Fife).

2009: R Fuentes (1 of top 5 was P)

2010: VTek (2 of 6 were P)

2011: Barnes (Owens 3rd) 3 of 6.

2012: Marrero. Next 8 were pitchers !!! (B Johnson, PLight, Buttrey)

2013: TBall (7th pick overall), then Stankiewicz with #45. 2 of next 3.

2014: Chavis. 3 of next 4 (Kopech-traded for Sale)

2015: Beni. 1 of top 5 (Lakins)

2016: Groome (#12). 3 of next 5 were P (S Anderson & Nogosek-traded)

2017: Houck (#24). 3 of next 5 were P.

2018: Casas. Only 2 of next 7 were p. (Ward & Feltman)

2019: Cannon. 2 of next 3 were P (Song & Zeferjahn)

2020: Yorke, then Jordan, then 5 pitchers in a row.

 

We picked 'em; they mostly sucked.

 

 

[Nick]

Dalbec finally gets on board, going 2-4. Looks to be a pretty good defender at 1B. His height there seems to play well. Xander, JD and Vaz swinging the bat.

 

Great outing by Eovaldi. I love to see him throw more breaking pitches. He probably could have gone another inning but up 9-1, what's the point.

 

Great to see we only used two pitchers. We get a day off on Friday then 16 straight games, Orioles (2), Twins (4), Blue Jays (2), White Sox (4) and Mariners (4).

 

See what our bats can do vs Orioles.

[moonslav59]

Wouldn't it be great to get a full and good season out of Nathan?

 

Yes, Dalbec looked very good, today-all around.

 

Let's hope the joy and excitement doesn't wear off, and the good hitting and pitching mojo spreads to everyone.

[moonslav59]

We also have ERod coming back.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

They did seem to neglect drafting pitchers to some extent, but they were also God-awful bad at it, so maybe it wasn't such a bad idea in that light.

 

Here's a summary, since 2001, of our top draft picks, in terms of pitching:

 

2001: our 1st pick was Lester, we then picked a pitcher in 3 of the next 5 picks (none of note)

2002: 1st pick Shoppach (only 1 of top 5 picks was a pitcher).

2003: David Murphy #1. 3 of top 6 were pitchers.

2004: Pedey. Next 4 were pitchers.

2005: Ellsbury. Next 3 of 4 were pitchers (Craih hansen, Buch & Bowden)

2006: Jason Place. Next 4 were pitchers (Masterson)

2007: LHP Nick Hagadone (traded). 2 of next 4 were pitchers.

2008: Casey Kelly (traded for AGon). 3 of next 4 pitchers (S Fife).

2009: R Fuentes (1 of top 5 was P)

2010: VTek (2 of 6 were P)

2011: Barnes (Owens 3rd) 3 of 6.

2012: Marrero. Next 8 were pitchers !!! (B Johnson, PLight, Buttrey)

2013: TBall (7th pick overall), then Stankiewicz with #45. 2 of next 3.

2014: Chavis. 3 of next 4 (Kopech-traded for Sale)

2015: Beni. 1 of top 5 (Lakins)

2016: Groome (#12). 3 of next 5 were P (S Anderson & Nogosek-traded)

2017: Houck (#24). 3 of next 5 were P.

2018: Casas. Only 2 of next 7 were p. (Ward & Feltman)

2019: Cannon. 2 of next 3 were P (Song & Zeferjahn)

2020: Yorke, then Jordan, then 5 pitchers in a row.

 

We picked 'em; they mostly sucked.

 

 

 

Thanks. I wondered if Tampa was just better at drafting pitchers or developing them. Since '01, they used first round picks to get two Cy Youngs -- Price (#1 overall) and Snell (#52nd overall) -- plus Ryne Stanek, who was their first regular opener. Those three are basically the Rays' only top pitching picks who made good; more recently they drafted McKay in '17 and Liberatore in '18 (who they traded for Arozarena).

 

Looks like Tampa is just better at acquiring pitchers.

[Nick]

Thanks. I wondered if Tampa was just better at drafting pitchers or developing them. Since '01, they used first round picks to get two Cy Youngs -- Price (#1 overall) and Snell (#52nd overall) -- plus Ryne Stanek, who was their first regular opener. Those three are basically the Rays' only top pitching picks who made good; more recently they drafted McKay in '17 and Liberatore in '18 (who they traded for Arozarena).

 

Looks like Tampa is just better at acquiring pitchers.

 

Well if we take their approach, we would be trading Devers this winter because you can't afford him and get couple of good major league ready pitching prospects in return. I think that's how you would do it.

[moonslav59]

Well if we take their approach, we would be trading Devers this winter because you can't afford him and get couple of good major league ready pitching prospects in return. I think that's how you would do it.

 

Our budget will never be like the Rays, and we will start shedding salaries very soon,some of which is dead wood- like Pedey & Price.

 

If we could draft and develop pitchers-let's not forget the development part as well as maximizing a pitcher's abilities once they reach the majors, we'd be on our way to being able to sustain a good farm and ML level team, at the same time. Imagine the Rays with even a $150M budget.

[moonslav59]

Thanks. I wondered if Tampa was just better at drafting pitchers or developing them. Since '01, they used first round picks to get two Cy Youngs -- Price (#1 overall) and Snell (#52nd overall) -- plus Ryne Stanek, who was their first regular opener. Those three are basically the Rays' only top pitching picks who made good; more recently they drafted McKay in '17 and Liberatore in '18 (who they traded for Arozarena).

 

Looks like Tampa is just better at acquiring pitchers.

 

The Rays sucked for a while, and they got some top picks that helped, like Price, but they really have not been all that great at drafting pitchers over the last 2 decades. They've drafted a ton and were better at acquiring comp picks than even Theo was. Most ended up as wasted picks, and one reason was they hardly ever drafted anyone who might want a big signing bonus.

 

They have been experts at trading players in their prime, and guessing almost precisely when they are about to sharply decline. They are also masters at getting journeymen and fringe players to come to their team and immediately have a career year or two before moving on and sucking again.

 

Here's a quick breakdown of TBR drafts:

2001: first 5 picks were pitchers (none notable)

2002: BJ Upton #2 (no pitchers until 5th rd.)

2003: Delmon Young #1 (no P till 5th rd.)

2004: Jeff Niemann #4 (good pitcher) and Wade Davis 3rd rd, Jake McGee 5th (no other P in top 9 rds.)

2005: Wade Townsend P #8 and 3 Ps next 3 rds (Hellickson in 4th rd.)

2006: Longoria #3, then 3 Ps (Alex Cobb 4th rd.)

2007: Price #1, then 3 pitchers in a row

2008: Tim Beckham #1 SS then Kyle Lobstein #47

Then the lower draft picks began as they were winning...

2009: LeVon Washington 2B (no Ps in 5 rds.)

2010: Joshua Sale #17 RF (No Ps until 4th pick)

2011 was the mother of all mother comp pick drafts. The Rays had 9 comp picks! 11 picks in the top 75 and 12 in the top 89 picks (4 of the 12 were pitchers, including Taylor Guerrieri with their first pick at #24.) Blake Snell was their 7th pick at #52.

2012: Richie Shaffer 3B #25 (P taken in 4th rd.)

2013: Nick Ciuffo C #21 (Ryne Stanek #29 comp pick)- next 4 picks non Ps

2014: Casey Gillaspie 1B #20 then 4 Ps in a row (none of note)

2015: #13 Garrett Whitley OF- no P until 4th rd

2016: #13 Josh Lowe 3B - no P until 4th

2017: #4 Brendan McKay 1B, #31 Drew Rasmussen RHP/Michael Mercado RHP #40

2018: #16 Mathew Libertore LHP, #31 S Mclanahan LHP, #32 CF'er (comp picks)

2019: #22 Greg Jones SS, #36 JJ Gross RHP, #40 Seth Johnson RHP (CBA picks)

2020: #24 Nick Bitsko RHP, 2nd rd I Seymour LHP #57, H Barnhart #96 P

 

[notin]

Well if we take their approach, we would be trading Devers this winter because you can't afford him and get couple of good major league ready pitching prospects in return. I think that's how you would do it.

 

Why can't the Sox afford Devers? He's under team control through 2023. After the 2022 season, the Sox shed the following contracts: Eovaldi, Martinez, Perez, Hernandez, Richards, Price (half) and possibly Bogaerts. Basically the only player left making any guaranteed money will be Sale and the only player with a vesting/conditional option is Sawamura. Unless Bogaerts stays.

 

If the Sox replace enough of those players internally, extending Devers will be even less of an issue...

[moonslav59]

I hope they extend Devers, despite his defensive woes.

 

I still think he's going to have a few monster years. He's just not reaching prime years.

[moonslav59]

One Rays strategy has been to lock up rising stars to long and somewhat discount contracts, like Longoria.

 

I wonder, if there is anyone Bloom has in mind.

[moonslav59]

I know this is the 2021 thread, but soxprospects.com projects this 2022 roster. The only two "acquisitions they list are SP2 and Closer and us bringing back ERod.

 

SP Sale, ____, ERod, Eovaldi, Houck, Pivetta

RP ____, DHern, Sawamura, Brasier, Taylor, Andriese, Whitlock, Brice, Bazardo

(Could Whitlock be the th starter?)

C Vaz, Plawecki

1B Dalbec (not Devers)

2B Downs

3B Devers (not Dalbec)

SS Bogey

LF Cordero

CF Duran

RF Verdugo

DH JD

UT Hernandez, Renfroe, Arroyo, Chavis

 

(Yes, that's 29 players.)

 

AAA notables:

SP Seabold, Mata, Ward, Politi, Winckowski, German

RP Valdez, Shugart, Feltman, Ort

C R Hernandez

1B Casas

2B Arauz

3B Potts

CF Rosario

RF Wilson

DH Wong

 

AA: Groome, Bello, Crawford, Jimenez

 

To see their futures rosters click here:

 

https://soxprospects.com/future.htm

Edited April 8, 2021 by moonslav59

[Larry Cook]

I know this is the 2021 thread, but soxprospects.com projects this 2022 roster. The only two "acquisitions they list are SP2 and Closer and us bringing back ERod.

 

SP Sale, ____, ERod, Eovaldi, Houck, Pivetta

RP ____, DHern, Sawamura, Brasier, Taylor, Andriese, Whitlock, Brice, Bazardo

(Could Whitlock be the th starter?)

C Vaz, Plawecki

1B Dalbec (not Devers)

2B Downs

3B Devers (not Dalbec)

SS Bogey

LF Cordero

CF Duran

RF Verdugo

DH JD

UT Hernandez, Renfroe, Arroyo, Chavis

 

(Yes, that's 29 players.)

 

AAA notables:

SP Seabold, Mata, Ward, Politi, Winckowski, German

RP Valdez, Shugart, Feltman, Ort

C R Hernandez

1B Casas

2B Arauz

3B Potts

CF Rosario

RF Wilson

DH Wong

 

AA: Groome, Bello, Crawford, Jimenez

 

To see their futures rosters click here:

 

https://soxprospects.com/future.htm

 

I liked what I saw of bastardo this spring. I hope he gets some innings in Boston this year!

[moonslav59]

I liked what I saw of bastardo this spring. I hope he gets some innings in Boston this year!

 

Hopefully, we won't use 30 pitchers, like last year, but my guess is Bazardo is somewhere near 15-20.

[Nick]

Why can't the Sox afford Devers? He's under team control through 2023. After the 2022 season, the Sox shed the following contracts: Eovaldi, Martinez, Perez, Hernandez, Richards, Price (half) and possibly Bogaerts. Basically the only player left making any guaranteed money will be Sale and the only player with a vesting/conditional option is Sawamura. Unless Bogaerts stays.

 

If the Sox replace enough of those players internally, extending Devers will be even less of an issue...

 

Easy there Cowboy....I was simply reinforcing Original Poster's thesis about the Rays and young talent.

 

Maybe I didn't make myself clear.

 

My perception of Rays is that they know they don't have the money to sign long term deals on many of their young talent.

 

So if the Rays had Devers as an example, they maybe faced with two additional years of huge salary increases which they can't afford.

 

They simply would move Devers to a big market club or a team desperate in need of big name player, securing couple of young major league talent, say with 10 years of team control between them.

 

No way was I suggesting what you said.

 

We should extend Devers. He's part of our core moving forward.

 

As the announcers mentioned today on YouTube telecast, Devers is younger than Dalbec.

[moonslav59]

Here's an interesting way to compare our pitching staff from 2020 to 2021. We used 30 pitchers, last year, including 3 non pitchers. Lets say we use 27, this year. Let's compare by throwing out the 3 non pitchers from 2020:

 

2020>2021

Lever>Schreiber/Gossett/Olson/Gonsalves

MHall>MHall

KHart>KHart

Godley> McCarthy

Kickham> Rondon

Springs> Ort

Covey> Seabold

Triggs> Whitlock

Stock> Richards

Tapia> Sale

Mazza> ERod

Walden > Walden

Brewer >Brewer

Brice > Brice

Hembree > Sawamura

Taylor> Taylor

Weber > Weber

Perez > Perez

Pivetta> Pivetta

Osich> Andriese

Brasier > Brasier

Valdez> Valdez

DHern> DHern

Barnes > Barnes

Workman> Ottavino

Eovaldi > Eovaldi

Houck >Houck

 

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

I'm psyched the Sox swept Tampa, but also can't shake this perspective: the '21 Rays pitching staff includes Mazza and Springs, two of the worst of the '20 Red Sox from the worst pitching staff in team history. Time will tell if the Rays really are magical in getting the most out of other club's castoffs... or really desperate.

[Bellhorn04]

Closing ain't easy. The Rays managed two legitimate blown saves last night . I thought that last kid was going to hyperventilate on the mound.

 

Jansen had your classic blown save for the Dodgers last night.

[notin]

I'm psyched the Sox swept Tampa, but also can't shake this perspective: the '21 Rays pitching staff includes Mazza and Springs, two of the worst of the '20 Red Sox from the worst pitching staff in team history. Time will tell if the Rays really are magical in getting the most out of other club's castoffs... or really desperate.

 

Mazza was nowhere near one of the worst pitchers on that staff. He was actually one of the better ones, which is the real tragedy...