2021 Prospects

[moonslav59]

I never liked how some of these ranking organizations put players in their top 100 lists prior to playing their first minor league game. But they have their methods….

 

They do pretty well with their rankings but certainly miss a lot.

 

Also, some 2019 draftees did play some games in 2019 and some '19 and '20 draftees played fall or winter ball, but maybe not too much can be learned from that.

 

[Hugh2]

Very true, but many other teams have players drafted in 2019 and 2020 in the top 100 prospects list.

 

None of ours are even close. Yorke might be top 200.

 

But how many of those guys were players taken at the top of the draft? We're picking #4 this year, so we're going to draft a guy this year who is going to slide into the top 100 right away. Almost nobody drafting that gets a top 100 prospect until the guy has played a year or two and proven themselvs.

[Hugh2]

They do pretty well with their rankings but certainly miss a lot.

 

Also, some 2019 draftees did play some games in 2019 and some '19 and '20 draftees played fall or winter ball, but maybe not too much can be learned from that.

 

 

Pretty much nothing. Often times guys who play in the minors the same year they're getting drafted are getting 7 games at 2B or 10 IP if that. The way I look at it is you realistically need 5 years to judge a draft.

[Hugh2]

Here's a perfect example. Mookie Betts was drafted in 2011 but he didn't become a top 100 prospect until he entered the 2014 rankings @ #75

[moonslav59]

Our top prospects by age groupings:

 

20 or under

4. Jimenez

8. Aldo Ramirez

10. Yorke

15. Lugo

16.Bonaci

18. Jordan

19. Freddy Valdez (PTBNL)

27. Blalock

47. Luis de la Rosa (PTBNL)

21-22

1. Casas

2. Downs

9. Bello

11. Mata (TJS)

14. Groome

20. Rosario

22. Arauz

23. Potts

25. Winckoski

35. Howlett

 

23-24

3. Duran

4. Houck

7. Ward (just had TJS)

12.Song

13. Ronaldo Hernandez

30. Grant Gambrell (PTBNL)

36.Marcus Wilson

60. Tyreque Reed (Rule 5)

 

25 or older

6. Seabold (on IL)

17. Wong

21. Bazardo

43. Kaleb Ort

 

Major Leaguers younger than some on this list:

24 DHern

24 Devers

25 Whitlock (just turned 25 a few days ago)

25 Verdugo (turned 25 in May)

26 Dalbec & Arroyo

 

[moonslav59]

Pretty much nothing. Often times guys who play in the minors the same year they're getting drafted are getting 7 games at 2B or 10 IP if that. The way I look at it is you realistically need 5 years to judge a draft.

 

No doubt. Maybe 3-4 years to have a pretty good idea and 5 or even more to know enough.

[moonslav59]

Here's a perfect example. Mookie Betts was drafted in 2011 but he didn't become a top 100 prospect until he entered the 2014 rankings @ #75

 

I'm not arguing against all these points, but would you rather have untested prospects in the top 100 or not?

 

Even top 150?

[Hugh2]

I'm not arguing against all these points, but would you rather have untested prospects in the top 100 or not?

 

Even top 150?

 

Ok, but my point is prospects usually don't bust into the top 100 the year after the draft unless they're top 5 guys. If we're getting those guys it means we suck, so yes I would rather have my recently drafted prospects not top 100 guys. From that vantage point of course, not that I wouldn't be thrilled if a guy we took 29th turned out to be a stud immediately.

[moonslav59]

Ok, but my point is prospects usually don't bust into the top 100 the year after the draft unless they're top 5 guys. If we're getting those guys it means we suck, so yes I would rather have my recently drafted prospects not top 100 guys. From that vantage point of course, not that I wouldn't be thrilled if a guy we took 29th turned out to be a stud immediately.

 

I agree, and maybe we have some prospects that will blast their way into the top 100 or 150 in the next year or two- maybe even someone we wouldn't expect to do so.

 

One reason we don't have many recently drafted and mostly untested draft picks in the top 100 rankings is because we have not drafted in the top 10 since Beni in 2015.

 

Getting Casas at #26 in 2018 looks real good (props to DD for that.)

We also got Duran in the 7th round, that year (#220).

 

We got Houck at #24 in 2017, and he has not disappointed, but nobody else from that draft looks too promising, although there is still time for a surprise or two.

 

Back 5 years ago, 2016, we had the 12th pick, which is not bad, and we took Groome. We traded our 3rd pick, Shaun Anderson) for Nunez. We drafted Dalbec in the 4th (#118), Shawaryn #148 and Nogosek #178.

 

Back far enough to be able to at least partially judge:

 

2015: 7 Beni, 111 Matheny, 171 Lakins, 201 Ben Taylor, 231 Logan Allen

 

2014: 26 Chavis, 33 Kopeck (Ellsbury comp pick), 67 Sam Travis, 164 Ockimey

 

The 2013 disaster: 7 T Ball, 45 Stanki, 81 Denney + nothing

 

2012: 24 Marrero, 31 Johnson, 37 Light, 151 Buttrey

 

The Theo years:

2011: 19 Barnes, 26 Swihart, 36 Owens, 40 JBJ, 143 Noe Ramirez, 172 Betts

2010: 20 Vitek, 36 Brentz, 39 Ranaudo, 57 Workman,110 Coyle

2009: 28 Fuentes, 77 Alex Wilson

2008: 30 Kelly (traded with Rizzo for AGon), 45 B Price, 85 Fife, 108 Weiland, Westmoreland and Lava taken in 5th & 6th rounds, Vaz taken in 9th round.

2007: 55 Hagadone, 5th rd Middlebrooks, 6th Rizzo

2006: nothing until Masterson at #71

2005: 23 Ellsbury, 26 Hansen, 42 Buchholz, 45 Lowrie, 47 Bowden

2004: 2nd rd Pedey, 6th Meredith

2003: 1st David Murphy, 4th Papelbon

Pre Theo

2002: 2nd Lester

2001: 2nd Shoppach

 

 

[notin]

Here's a perfect example. Mookie Betts was drafted in 2011 but he didn't become a top 100 prospect until he entered the 2014 rankings @ #75

 

 

And number 74 that year was Garin Cecchini, whose entire career consisted of 40 plate appearances…

[moonslav59]

And number 74 that year was Garin Cecchini, whose entire career consisted of 40 plate appearances…

 

The guy with the .357 minor league OBP, which reminds me of Alew Hassan and his .383 minor league OBP that earned him 9 MLB PAs.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

But... but... whadabout Juan Chacon??? Ok, only 18 years old, but already 6'2", 170 lbs, and "a potential 5-tool player".

 

I know, a lot fans' beer guts weight 170... but we have potential to stomach even more!

 

https://www.prospects1500.com/al-east/red-sox/boston-red-sox-2021-top-50-prospects/

[mvp 78]

But... but... whadabout Juan Chacon??? Ok, only 18 years old, but already 6'2", 170 lbs, and "a potential 5-tool player".

 

I know, a lot fans' beer guts weight 170... but we have potential to stomach even more!

 

https://www.prospects1500.com/al-east/red-sox/boston-red-sox-2021-top-50-prospects/

 

That list looks like it has dust on it when it puts Whitlock at 24.

[moonslav59]

That list looks like it has dust on it when it puts Whitlock at 24.

 

Soxprospects.com has him as "post-prospect."

[mvp 78]

Soxprospects.com has him as "post-prospect."

 

Yup, he was up too long.

 

Honestly, I think a guy like Kaleb Ort is more of a post-prospect than Whitlock. That's just semantics though.

[moonslav59]

Yup, he was up too long.

 

Honestly, I think a guy like Kaleb Ort is more of a post-prospect than Whitlock. That's just semantics though.

 

True. At some point age should be a factor (on both ends).

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I'm not sure if this was reported, but Houck returned to the mound and looked great, he threw 3 innings in AAA, gave up one walk, no hits, and finished with 6 Ks. If Houck can stay healthy, I wouldn't be surprised to see him return to the Red Sox rotation sometime soon.

[moonslav59]

I'm not sure if this was reported, but Houck returned to the mound and looked great, he threw 3 innings in AAA, gave up one walk, no hits, and finished with 6 Ks. If Houck can stay healthy, I wouldn't be surprised to see him return to the Red Sox rotation sometime soon.

 

Duran (3hits) and Chavis homered, tonight.

Gonsalves went 6 IP, 4H, 0BB, 7K

 

Bello K'd 10 in 5.1 IP, 2H & 1 BB

 

Gambrell was lit up at single A

 

Jimenez with 3 hits and 4 rbi at A-.

[a700hitter]

I saw some of Gonsalves’ outing. He looked pretty good.

[Fan_since_Boggs]

Duran (3hits) and Chavis homered, tonight.

Gonsalves went 6 IP, 4H, 0BB, 7K

 

Bello K'd 10 in 5.1 IP, 2H & 1 BB

 

Gambrell was lit up at single A

 

Jimenez with 3 hits and 4 rbi at A-.

 

It was pretty cool to hear that Chris Sale was working with Houck:

https://www.telegram.com/story/sports/mlb/woosox/2021/06/18/red-sox-chris-sale-tanner-houck-worcester-red-sox/7741936002/

 

It is still early, but it is hard not to get excited about Bello. Perhaps the Red Sox have something special in him.

 

Just thinking about the rotation next year:

 

C.Sale

N.Eovaldi

N.Pivetta

T.Houck

E.Rodriguez (resign at bargain price)

G.Whitlock

---That's 6 starters, wow---

 

Triple A

C.Seabold

B.Bello

J.Winckowski

 

At this point I wouldn't bring back G.Richards, he may have been a "sticky stuff" guy. I would rather put some resources into E-Rod, he is younger than Richards and will hopefully get back on track.

 

 

I saw some of Gonsalves’ outing. He looked pretty good.

Too bad he is out of options.

Edited June 19, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[Hugh2]

I think if you want to compete next year you need to pick up a starter. The depth is better this year but we’re still lacking the type of star talent that can lead you into October. Having Sale back should help. Houck strikes new as a reliever, a good one though.

[Bellhorn04]

I think if you want to compete next year you need to pick up a starter. The depth is better this year but we’re still lacking the type of star talent that can lead you into October. Having Sale back should help.

 

We're in first place this year, Hugh. Why is next year going to be so different?

[Hugh2]

We're in first place this year, Hugh. Why is next year going to be so different?

 

I don’t think it’s an unfair assessment that this team is playing above their expectations. They’ve played themselves into competing, awesome.

 

I’m not convinced they’re a true World Series caliber team. Their are areas where they can improve to reach that next level.

[Bellhorn04]

I don’t think it’s an unfair assessment that this team is playing above their expectations. They’ve played themselves into competing, awesome.

 

I’m not convinced they’re a true World Series caliber team. Their are areas where they can improve to reach that next level.

 

Personally, I think this year is a testament to good management by Bloom and Cora. As long as we've got these two, I think we'll be in great shape.

 

I do get your points, too.

 

World Series? Well, we'd have to be pretty damn lucky. But that's usually the case anyway.

[notin]

 

At this point I wouldn't bring back G.Richards, he may have been a "sticky stuff" guy. I would rather put some resources into E-Rod, he is younger than Richards and will hopefully get back on track.

 

 

 

 

Richards does rank in the top 100%ile for spin rate, but he has for his entire career. If he is cheating now, then he always has been.

 

One thing about him though, is that he already has 74 IP this year. This is the most he has thrown since 2018 and after 6 or so more IP, he will have his highest total since 2016....

[a700hitter]

Richards does rank in the top 100%ile for spin rate, but he has for his entire career. If he is cheating now, then he always has been.

 

One thing about him though, is that he already has 74 IP this year. This is the most he has thrown since 2018 and after 6 or so more IP, he will have his highest total since 2016....

Maybe he has always cheated. That is a possibility. He seems to be upset by the new policy.

[Bellhorn04]

Maybe he has always cheated. That is a possibility. He seems to be upset by the new policy.

 

He's not the only one though. Glasnow blamed his injury on it. And he's a relative kid.

[notin]

Maybe he has always cheated. That is a possibility. He seems to be upset by the new policy.

 

It’s possible he has always cheated, but it’s also possible he never has. It is amazing the way fans leap to the “cheater until proven innocent” logic with baseball…

[Fan_since_Boggs]

I think if you want to compete next year you need to pick up a starter. The depth is better this year but we’re still lacking the type of star talent that can lead you into October. Having Sale back should help. Houck strikes new as a reliever, a good one though.

 

The free agency class is pretty weak -- if you want to add a top starter, you will need to do it through a trade and thus the Red Sox would need to trade some top prospects. I'm not sure if Bloom has an appetite for that.

 

 

He seems to be upset by the new policy.

I saw his comments and thought they were quite "suspicious." He hasn't performed well in his last two starts.

Edited June 20, 2021 by Fan_since_Boggs

[notin]

I don’t think it’s an unfair assessment that this team is playing above their expectations. They’ve played themselves into competing, awesome.

 

I’m not convinced they’re a true World Series caliber team. Their are areas where they can improve to reach that next level.

 

I think it's a given this team is playing above expectations. They're on a pace to win 98 games. Before the season started, even the most optimistic people had them in the 85-90 range. Most people were below that, and some as much as 25 wins below their current pace.

 

Of course, if they keep this current pace and win 98 games, then they are legitimate contenders for the WSC. Sometimes when reality conflicts with our expectations, reality isn't the one that's wrong...