2021 Prospects

[mvp 78]

Per Baseball America:

 

Best Hitter for Average: Triston Casas

Best Power Hitter: Bobby Dalbec

Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Triston Casas

Fastest Baserunner: Jarren Duran

Best Athlete: Gilberto Jimenez

Best Fastball: Bryan Mata

Best Curveball: Jay Groome

Best Slider: Tanner Houck

Best Changeup: Connor Seabold

Best Control: Thad Ward

Best Defensive Catcher: Kole Cottam

Best Defensive Infielder: Matthew Lugo

Best Infield Arm: Bobby Dalbec

Best Defensive Outfielder: Jeisson Rosario

Best Outfield Arm: Gilberto Jimenez

[moonslav59]

Per Baseball America:

 

Best Hitter for Average: Triston Casas

Best Power Hitter: Bobby Dalbec

Best Strike-Zone Discipline: Triston Casas

Fastest Baserunner: Jarren Duran

Best Athlete: Gilberto Jimenez

Best Fastball: Bryan Mata

Best Curveball: Jay Groome

Best Slider: Tanner Houck

Best Changeup: Connor Seabold

Best Control: Thad Ward

Best Defensive Catcher: Kole Cottam

Best Defensive Infielder: Matthew Lugo

Best Infield Arm: Bobby Dalbec

Best Defensive Outfielder: Jeisson Rosario

Best Outfield Arm: Gilberto Jimenez

 

While Duran seems to be getting most of the talk about OF help from the minors is justified, since he is much older than Jimenez & Rosario, don't be surprised if both end up better than Duran.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

While Duran seems to be getting most of the talk about OF help from the minors is justified, since he is much older than Jimenez & Rosario, don't be surprised if both end up better than Duran.

 

Jimenez also has "elite speed", so he has the two tools that can't be taught. The fact that he won the NY-Penn batting title bodes well.

 

It's also encouraging to read about Lugo's defense, since his bat is supposedly what got him drafted (besides being Beltran's nephew).

[notin]

While Duran seems to be getting most of the talk about OF help from the minors is justified, since he is much older than Jimenez & Rosario, don't be surprised if both end up better than Duran.

 

Arguably, the presence of Jimenez and Rosario makes potential Duran trade bait...

[moonslav59]

Arguably, the presence of Jimenez and Rosario makes potential Duran trade bait...

 

Personally, I think Duran (and Chavis) are over rated. I have them as part of several of my suggested trades on the Trade Values site.

 

With a shallow OF system, I'm fine with keeping him, and I still have hopes he breaks through, but I think we will sign a CF'er, this winter- maybe a temporary fix, and see what Duran does next season.

[a700hitter]

Personally, I think Duran (and Chavis) are over rated. I have them as part of several of my suggested trades on the Trade Values site.

 

With a shallow OF system, I'm fine with keeping him, and I still have hopes he breaks through, but I think we will sign a CF'er, this winter- maybe a temporary fix, and see what Duran does next season.

Chavis reminds me of Dan Uggla. He might stick around for a few years and put up some good power numbers while striking out like crazy. I don't know if he is overrated, because I don't think anyone has a high opinion of him.

 

Duran has elite speed. He has good power, but watching him in BP in February it looks like he tries to pull everything and there might be some holes in his swing that need fixing.

[moonslav59]

Chavis reminds me of Dan Uggla. He might stick around for a few years and put up some good power numbers while striking out like crazy. I don't know if he is overrated, because I don't think anyone has a high opinion of him.

 

Duran has elite speed. He has good power, but watching him in BP in February it looks like he tries to pull everything and there might be some holes in his swing that need fixing.

 

Agreed. My "over rated" comment was in regards to the value placed on these two players on the Trade Values website. I also think Chatham is too high. Last year, I felt the vastly over-rated Walden and Chavis.

 

Here is how the value our players:

(Remember, the players years of control and salary are a big part of their value numbers.)

 

58 Verdugo

34 Devers

26 Downs

22 Casas

22 Bogey

21 Vaz

18 Dalbec

13 DHern

12 Mata

12 Duran

9.0 ERod

8.5 Jimenez

7.5 Chavis

6.3 Yorke

6.0 Jordan & Lugo

5.5 Beni

5.3 Houck

4.9 Chatham

4.7 Brasier

4.5 Ward

4.4 Potts

3.8 Song

3.6 Arroyo

3.3 Taylor

3.0 Murphy

2.9 Wong

 

Other notables:

2.6 Groome

2.4 Pivett

0.5 Mazza & Valdez

0.0 Barnes & Brewer and Munoz, Plawecki, Walden & Weber

 

-11 Eovaldi

-18 Sale

-22 JD

 

[notin]

Personally, I think Duran (and Chavis) are over rated. I have them as part of several of my suggested trades on the Trade Values site.

 

With a shallow OF system, I'm fine with keeping him, and I still have hopes he breaks through, but I think we will sign a CF'er, this winter- maybe a temporary fix, and see what Duran does next season.

 

Yeah I would consider Chavis to be trade bait as well, except that I don't see any teams getting all excited for him. Maybe in a salary dump deal, but not much else. His only real asset is that he works cheaply...

[mvp 78]

Chavis reminds me of Dan Uggla. He might stick around for a few years and put up some good power numbers while striking out like crazy. I don't know if he is overrated, because I don't think anyone has a high opinion of him.

 

Duran has elite speed. He has good power, but watching him in BP in February it looks like he tries to pull everything and there might be some holes in his swing that need fixing.

 

I heard that they revamped his swing by the time he got to Summer Camp. Maybe you'll see a different Duran in 2021 ST.

[notin]

I heard that they revamped his swing by the time he got to Summer Camp. Maybe you'll see a different Duran in 2021 ST.

 

Some thoughts on Duran.

 

The Sox do not have a lot of really good prospects that they can afford to keep dealing away, but they do have a fair amount of CF prospects with Duran, Jimenez and Rosario. (And Wilson, if you like him. Although I don't have hopes for his being anything beyond a 4th OF/pinch runner.) Duran is the only one who has played above A-ball, and is the highest ranking. And while there are no guarantees that Jimenez and/or Rosario amount to anything, does it put the Sox in a position where they can deal Duran to get a much more needed player (specifically a pitcher)?

 

The Sox should deal some prospects (not all, but some), and what ones would be deemed not only expendable but also desirable by another team?

[mvp 78]

I think you deal prospects if you are close to competing. I'm not sure they are quite there yet. I mean, maybe if you're trading for a young controllable pitcher?

 

If they traded any of those guys, I'm not sure I'd be up in arms at this point.

[moonslav59]

Yeah I would consider Chavis to be trade bait as well, except that I don't see any teams getting all excited for him. Maybe in a salary dump deal, but not much else. His only real asset is that he works cheaply...

 

Yes, I see Chavis as being "added value" to a multiplayer deal. The fact that he can "play" 2B, 1B, 3B and maybe OF helps.

[mvp 78]

Yes, I see Chavis as being "added value" to a multiplayer deal. The fact that he can "play" 2B, 1B, 3B and maybe OF helps.

 

He's probably a better fit somewhere else. If he was LHH he'd be sticking around.

[notin]

I think you deal prospects if you are close to competing. I'm not sure they are quite there yet. I mean, maybe if you're trading for a young controllable pitcher?

 

If they traded any of those guys, I'm not sure I'd be up in arms at this point.

 

Well how close are the Sox to competing?

 

The offense was actually not bad, despite awful seasons from Benintendi and Martinez. The pitching was horrible. But if/when ERod and Sale return, it gets better. Pivetta and Houck might make a decent back end. So they need a starter and some serious bullpen help, and figure out CF and 2b.

 

It’s not out of the realm of possibility that they are competitive next season. Especially when this off-season looks like one where most teams could be cost-cutting...

[harmony]

WEEI's Rob Bradford on Jarren Duran:

 

https://www.radio.com/weei/sports/red-sox/the-red-sox-jarren-duran-conundrum

[mvp 78]

Never read Rob Bradford:

 

But the Red Sox need a full-time centerfielder for 2022 and as we sit here right now --

[mvp 78]

Well how close are the Sox to competing?

 

The offense was actually not bad, despite awful seasons from Benintendi and Martinez. The pitching was horrible. But if/when ERod and Sale return, it gets better. Pivetta and Houck might make a decent back end. So they need a starter and some serious bullpen help, and figure out CF and 2b.

 

It’s not out of the realm of possibility that they are competitive next season. Especially when this off-season looks like one where most teams could be cost-cutting...

 

If Sale and Erod were certainties for 4/1, I think you make a run at the playoffs. I think right now they are on the outside looking in.

[notin]

If Sale and Erod were certainties for 4/1, I think you make a run at the playoffs. I think right now they are on the outside looking in.

 

How far from being a competitor did you think the Sox were after their last place finish in 2012? Or their last place finish in 2015?

[Bellhorn04]

If they make some good pitching acquisitions, we'll feel better about our chances.

 

Who knows, maybe they'll sign Bauer.

[mvp 78]

How far from being a competitor did you think the Sox were after their last place finish in 2012? Or their last place finish in 2015?

 

This starting pitching staff is way more unsettled than it was in 2012. Sale will be out for half the season. ERod is a huge question mark due to COVID.

 

Maybe they grab Bauer and another starting pitcher? They would have to in order to compete. I just don't think Bloom is a Bauer guy. I think Bloom goes for more under the radar guys at this point. I don't see them making a big splash. I think they'll fill out the roster better than 2020, but they aren't going to go for the top 5 FA's. Maybe they splurge on Kim? Does signing Odorizzi and Hendriks make them championship contenders? IDK.

 

Beni and JD are two rather large question marks going into the season too.

 

If you told me that they won 2021 because of bounce back seasons from JD and Beni, while Verdugo puts up huge numbers and the pitching staff is top 10 I could see it. I could also see them struggling to be above .500.

[notin]

If they make some good pitching acquisitions, we'll feel better about our chances.

 

Who knows, maybe they'll sign Bauer.

 

I look at it this way.

 

Between 2012 and 2019, the Sox finished in last place three times. In two of the following seasons, they came in first. They actually went from worst to first more often than they repeated the last place finish.

 

So if nothing else, we know it is possible. It's not like we looked at that 2012 team and thought "Hey, we're just a closer/starter/first baseman/whatever away". Especially after the Sox unloaded all those contracts in August...

[moonslav59]

 

Beni and JD are two rather large question marks going into the season too.

 

If you told me that they won 2021 because of bounce back seasons from JD and Beni, while Verdugo puts up huge numbers and the pitching staff is top 10 I could see it.

 

I'm not all that optimistic about 2021, either. We'd need a lot to happen to make the playoffs and even more to be a top contender.

 

I do think some other factors could come into play that could boost our chances, beyond what you mentioned here (or instead of them).

 

Devers could be better than even his 2019 season.

 

Bogey could put up a monster year.

 

Dalbec is a bit of a wildcard, who could surprise.

 

There is not much on the pitching staff that jumps out and says, Maybe this guy could..., except maybe DHern & Houck.

 

We have to hope for incredible good luck with health, especially Sale, Eovaldi & ERod and that the vast majority of the players Bloom adds come through for us.

 

I think it will be a fun season to watch.

Edited November 13, 2020 by moonslav59

[mvp 78]

I enjoyed watching 2020 so I bet I'll enjoy 2021 even more. (If 2020 went for a full 162 it would have been really rough though.)

[moonslav59]

I enjoyed watching 2020 so I bet I'll enjoy 2021 even more. (If 2020 went for a full 162 it would have been really rough though.)

 

Agreed.

 

I'm thinking just having Cora back will make watching more enjoyable.

[Bellhorn04]

Agreed.

 

I'm thinking just having Cora back will make watching more enjoyable.

 

Success starts at the top. We've got Bloom, Cora, and Henry/Werner seem eager to keep spending and being a contender.

 

You can't ask for much more.

[moonslav59]

Success starts at the top. We've got Bloom, Cora, and Henry/Werner seem eager to keep spending and being a contender.

 

You can't ask for much more.

 

In total agreement.

 

As a teacher who has worked at 4 different schools in 13 years and several companies outside the educational profession. The principal/boss makes a huge difference.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Don't forget in 2022 that Noah Song will be a force -- his arm will have two years rest!

[notin]

Don't forget in 2022 that Noah Song will be a force -- his arm will have two years rest!

 

And he should light up the Carolina League...

[mvp 78]

And he should light up the Carolina League...

 

He'll be in AA by the end of 2022. May even be pitching for Salem in 2021 depending on his commitment.

[moonslav59]

Don't forget in 2022 that Noah Song will be a force -- his arm will have two years rest!

 

So, his years of team control will go into his 30's and all of his prime years.