A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[notin]

Hammerin' Hank and Willie Mays were mammoth guys!

 

There is a significant amount of irony in hearing about the durability of smaller players from the fan of a team with two behemoths in Stanton and Judge that have both proven to be incapable of staying on the field in recent years...

[notin]

It's February 5th. I'm starting to doubt anyone else is being added to the Red Sox. So as constituted, I'm going to say ... 80-82.

 

With about 100 players or so still looking for jobs, it is hard to say as no one really knows what any final roster will look like.

 

I have serious doubts about the Sox signing Odorizzi after bringing on Garrett Richards, but I still think they will bring in at least one outfielder and a bench bat. And if they take advantage of some bargain relievers like Romo and Workman on top of that, they will not be a bad team. Maybe not a title team, but a team we can all watch and get some enjoyment from for 6 months...

[mvp 78]

The lefty bench bat will be Josh Ockimey.

 

The 4th OFer will be Puello.

 

Threat level: 8.5.........................

[notin]

The lefty bench bat will be Josh Ockimey.

 

The 4th OFer will be Puello.

 

Threat level: 8.5.........................

 

I would normally be on board with Puello (or Michael Gettys) as a 4th outfielder, but I have my doubts that Bloom (or anyone in the organization) thinks Hunter Renfroe is a full time player. And it's not like they paid him as if they expected him to be one. They have been connected with numerous other outfielders so far, including Bradley, Puig, Ozuna and Marwin Gonzalez (if you think of him as on OF). So I am not so sure they are done here.

 

And big no to Ockimey. Why when a LHH bench bat can be had cheaply, and the Sox have been connected to Moreland and Gonzalez and probably been in touch with others. And it is a safe bet anyone the Sox sign will be better than Ockimey...

[moonslav59]

Let's say we add no more players, could this be how the 700 PAs per position are divided?

 

C: Vaz 550/ Plawecki 150

1B: Dalbec 550/Chavis 150

2B: EHern 300/Arroyo 300/Chavis 100

3B: Devers 650/Dalbec 50

SS: Bogey 650/Arroyo 50

LF: Beni 550/ Renfroe 150

CF: Verdugo 350/EHern 350

RF: Verdugo 300/Renfroe 400

DH: JD 650/Chavis 50

 

Total:

650: Bogey, Devers, JD, Verdugo, EHern

600: Dalbec

550: Vaz, Beni, Renfroe

350: Arroyo

300: Chavis

150 Plawecki

 

(Of course, injuries will force more names on this list, but this may be a "template" of how playing time might be divided.)

 

Anybody see any major changes they think may be part of the "plan?"

[moonslav59]

I would normally be on board with Puello (or Michael Gettys) as a 4th outfielder, but I have my doubts that Bloom (or anyone in the organization) thinks Hunter Renfroe is a full time player. And it's not like they paid him as if they expected him to be one. They have been connected with numerous other outfielders so far, including Bradley, Puig, Ozuna and Marwin Gonzalez (if you think of him as on OF). So I am not so sure they are done here.

 

And big no to Ockimey. Why when a LHH bench bat can be had cheaply, and the Sox have been connected to Moreland and Gonzalez and probably been in touch with others. And it is a safe bet anyone the Sox sign will be better than Ockimey...

 

Ockimey has killer numbers in splits, but only in the minors.

 

I would not write him off, just yet.

 

[notin]

Ockimey has killer numbers in splits, but only in the minors.

 

I would not write him off, just yet.

 

 

Too late. Wrote him off. In ink...

[moonslav59]

Too late. Wrote him off. In ink...

 

I had him as my sleeper prospects, years ago, so I'm clinging to my slim chance, "I told you so".

 

vs RHPs

.898 in 2019 AAA

.968 in 2018 AA/ .783 AAA

.817 in 2017 AA/.844 A+

.831 in 2016 A

.825 in 2015 A-

 

In total, he has 45 HRs in his last 781 ABs in the minors (v R & v L combined).

Edited February 5, 2021 by moonslav59

[notin]

I had him as my sleeper prospects, years ago, so I'm clinging to my slim chance, "I told you so".

 

vs RHPs

.898 in 2019 AAA

.968 in 2018 AA/ .783 AAA

.817 in 2017 AA/.844 A+

.831 in 2016 A

.825 in 2015 A-

 

In total, he has 45 HRs in his last 781 ABs in the minors (v R & v L combined).

 

Well I was wrong about Travis Shaw for a couple years. Until he turned back into a pumpkin. Maybe Ockimey has a season or two of non-pumpkin baseball...

[mvp 78]

I would normally be on board with Puello (or Michael Gettys) as a 4th outfielder, but I have my doubts that Bloom (or anyone in the organization) thinks Hunter Renfroe is a full time player. And it's not like they paid him as if they expected him to be one. They have been connected with numerous other outfielders so far, including Bradley, Puig, Ozuna and Marwin Gonzalez (if you think of him as on OF). So I am not so sure they are done here.

 

And big no to Ockimey. Why when a LHH bench bat can be had cheaply, and the Sox have been connected to Moreland and Gonzalez and probably been in touch with others. And it is a safe bet anyone the Sox sign will be better than Ockimey...

 

I don't think they grab JBJ, Puig or Ozuna. Maybe Marwin, but that's a definitely hold my nose option.

 

I just have a feeling that they aren't going with a lefty bat just yet.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Let's say we add no more players, could this be how the 700 PAs per position are divided?

 

C: Vaz 550/ Plawecki 150

1B: Dalbec 550/Chavis 150

2B: EHern 300/Arroyo 300/Chavis 100

3B: Devers 650/Dalbec 50

SS: Bogey 650/Arroyo 50

LF: Beni 550/ Renfroe 150

CF: Verdugo 350/EHern 350

RF: Verdugo 300/Renfroe 400

DH: JD 650/Chavis 50

 

Total:

650: Bogey, Devers, JD, Verdugo, EHern

600: Dalbec

550: Vaz, Beni, Renfroe

350: Arroyo

300: Chavis

150 Plawecki

 

(Of course, injuries will force more names on this list, but this may be a "template" of how playing time might be divided.)

 

Anybody see any major changes they think may be part of the "plan?"

 

I think Beni has more potential to rebound than Renfroe, so I'd tip the balance on the lefty half of that "platoon", which may not even become one.

If the team is as bad as it currently looks, I also predict 100 each for Duran, Downs, and maybe even Casas, by the Fall (no pun intended). That's only about 25 games each.

[moonslav59]

With about 100 players or so still looking for jobs, it is hard to say as no one really knows what any final roster will look like.

 

I have serious doubts about the Sox signing Odorizzi after bringing on Garrett Richards, but I still think they will bring in at least one outfielder and a bench bat. And if they take advantage of some bargain relievers like Romo and Workman on top of that, they will not be a bad team. Maybe not a title team, but a team we can all watch and get some enjoyment from for 6 months...

 

I'd like to see us add a SP, two RP'ers and a 2B or CF'er or maybe both. That's 5, tops. My guess is we will add 2 maybe 3 tops.

 

I think there may be some real bargains to have, and maybe some of the players we sign could be traded at the deadline to bolster our farm, or we keep them and actually try and make the playoffs.

 

It's not like we have major roster crunch issues. We've already discussed how the bottom of our 40 man roster easily has 6-10 players that are replaceable.

 

The 26 man roster may have more issues, especially when players start returning from the IL, but we may see more going to the IL than returning, so maybe the won't be an issue.

 

Chavis still has options, so we could add a 2Bman and not lose him as AAAA depth. Arroyo is out of options.

 

The pitching staff has some issues, such as Whitlock needed to stay on the ML roster all year, and Pivetta, Ottavino, Andriese & Brice being out of options, but DFA'ing or trading Brice does not bother me.

 

 

All these pitchers still have options: Houck, Dhern, Brasier, Taylor, Valdez, Seabold, Mazza, Brewer, Springs Barnes, too, but he won't be sent down.)

 

Sale will start on the IL, likely the 60 day, and ERod may start on the IL, too. Assuming both do, our opening 13 man MLB staff could be:

 

Eovaldi, Richards, Perez, Pivetta, FA

Barnes, Ottavino, Brasier, DHern, Whitlock, Andriese, FA, FA or Brice

 

This does leave room for 5 additions, without major roster moves beyond losing Brice.

 

SP

RP

RP

2B

OF

 

This would strengthen our farm by adding Houck, Valdez, Taylor, Chavis and Puello/Gettys to AAA.

 

When Sale & ERod return, or Houck is called up, we'll decide who goes or is demoted.

 

I don't think we should miss out on bargains just to keep Brice and maybe even guys like Andriese.

 

 

[notin]

I don't think they grab JBJ, Puig or Ozuna. Maybe Marwin, but that's a definitely hold my nose option.

 

I just have a feeling that they aren't going with a lefty bat just yet.

 

I'd rather see Moreland come back, but I get the appeal of Brad Miller or Gonzalez. But to me, Marwin Gonzalez has never shown he ca be any sort of "bat" unless someone is swinging at a trash can...

[notin]

And Puig might be the most likely OF to join the Sox.

 

He won't be expensive. He can play RF, and so far, unlike Bradley, is not demanding anything long term...

[moonslav59]

I think Beni has more potential to rebound than Renfroe, so I'd tip the balance on the lefty half of that "platoon", which may not even become one.

If the team is as bad as it currently looks, I also predict 100 each for Duran, Downs, and maybe even Casas, by the Fall (no pun intended). That's only about 25 games each.

 

The Beni call seems right, but I don't see Beni playing RF, so that's why Renfroe gets more than the short split half usually would get, but maybe EHern plays more CF and hence Verdugo more RF. (That would mean Arroyo/Chavis gte more at 2B, at the expense of PAs by Renfro vs LHPs and Beni vs LHPs.)

 

Maybe:

Beni 550

Renfroe 450 (not 550)

Arroyo 450 (not 350)

EHern still 650 but with 450 in CF and just 200 at 2B.

 

I tried to stay away from adding projections from others, but surely some will get some PAs, and maybe even serious amounts.

 

We will likely add an everyday player that will take 50-200+ PAs- a CF'er or 2Bman. Chavis may even start in AAA.

 

I don't think Casas is acalled up, this year. Downs maybe in Sept. Duran maybe earlier, depending on who we add as an OF'er before opening day. We may add two or end up adding an OF'er and 2Bman, so EHern squeezes out chances for Duran to play in 2021.

[moonslav59]

I'd rather see Moreland come back, but I get the appeal of Brad Miller or Gonzalez. But to me, Marwin Gonzalez has never shown he ca be any sort of "bat" unless someone is swinging at a trash can...

 

I see CF as a much bigger issue than 1B.

 

Adding a 2Bman could help the CF position by sliding EHern to CF more foten than planned, and to me, that's a better add than Moreland.

 

If we could trust Moreland in LF, maybe, but...

[Bellhorn04]

And Puig might be the most likely OF to join the Sox.

 

Cancer culture.

[jad]

Yes, and as much as people are complaining about not spending a lot, this winter, we've actually spent more this winter than most teams.

 

Can I ask you something?

 

Doesn't it suck being a top 3 spending team and sucking, while having a below average farm, at best?

 

Yes. But then, what sucks even more is musical chairs rosters (becoming the norm in prof. sports). I stopped watching hockey bec. I no longer know where my favorite players are playing. I have no problem w/ RS losses (I'm used to them); I'm happy when they win. But when they run out a team where I haven't heard of half the players, I don't care what they do.

[moonslav59]

Yes. But then, what sucks even more is musical chairs rosters (becoming the norm in prof. sports). I stopped watching hockey bec. I no longer know where my favorite players are playing. I have no problem w/ RS losses (I'm used to them); I'm happy when they win. But when they run out a team where I haven't heard of half the players, I don't care what they do.

 

I get your point, and it does seem to take away from the game.

 

Right now, Eovaldi is 11th on the list of Red Sox 40 man roster seniority. (When added to 40 man- not when joined the Sox system)

 

Arauz is 18th. He was added in DEC 2019!

 

Our rule 5 protected player added in NOV 2020 are ranked 28-34th.

[Nick]

Bloom on high end FA...

 

"There’s risks you’re taking on, too, and sometimes there are consequences down the road with that,” he continued. “What you don’t want to be is hamstrung when it really comes time to push some chips in because of some commitments you made earlier. That isn’t, to some degree, the position we’re in now. And look, it worked. All my teammates have rings here because of it. But you’ve got to make sure you’re flexible so you can really take advantage of those great opportunities when it’s really the right time for them.”

 

Spoken in English.....my hand is not good enough to push all my chips in.....I need to see a better hand....

[notin]

I see CF as a much bigger issue than 1B.

 

Adding a 2Bman could help the CF position by sliding EHern to CF more foten than planned, and to me, that's a better add than Moreland.

 

If we could trust Moreland in LF, maybe, but...

 

If they sign Moreland and another OF, they would have 5 players on the roster with OF experience, as they would have the new OF, Benintendi, Verdugo, Renfroe and Hernandez. That seems to be sufficient depth.

 

If they sign Miller, he has played both corner OF spots, albeit unspectacularly...

[moonslav59]

If they sign Moreland and another OF, they would have 5 players on the roster with OF experience, as they would have the new OF, Benintendi, Verdugo, Renfroe and Hernandez. That seems to be sufficient depth.

 

If they sign Miller, he has played both corner OF spots, albeit unspectacularly...

 

I could see us adding Moreland and Marisnick. That would likely mean EHern sees more time at 2B than CF, but not necessarily. A lot might depend on how Arroyo or Chavis look at 2B.

 

We could add Pillar and Moreland- all but pushing EHern to FT 2B and 4th OF'er.

 

My favorite plan would be to sign a 2Bman (Schoop) and Marisnick, but 2B and Moreland would be okay.

 

Then, there are the pitchers...

[moonslav59]

Bloom on high end FA...

 

"There’s risks you’re taking on, too, and sometimes there are consequences down the road with that,” he continued. “What you don’t want to be is hamstrung when it really comes time to push some chips in because of some commitments you made earlier. That isn’t, to some degree, the position we’re in now. And look, it worked. All my teammates have rings here because of it. But you’ve got to make sure you’re flexible so you can really take advantage of those great opportunities when it’s really the right time for them.”

 

Spoken in English.....my hand is not good enough to push all my chips in.....I need to see a better hand....

 

Yes, we are basically punting the big decisions down the road- when the hand gets better.

 

Also, the fact that Bauer, Springer and Realmutto did not really fit into the mold of the type of player you want to go all in with your chips, made this winter's choice not to go large & long pretty easy.

 

IMO, we may have missed a couple chance to go somewhat large and not so long on a few players like Odorizzi. Those wouldn't be all-in moves and would be off the books in 3 years.

 

We may still see an Odorizzi signing, but I doubt it.

[moonslav59]

If they sign Moreland and another OF, they would have 5 players on the roster with OF experience, as they would have the new OF, Benintendi, Verdugo, Renfroe and Hernandez. .

 

Actually 6 or 7, if you count Chavis

Beni

Verdugo

Renfroe

EHern

JD

Moreland

Chavis

[notin]

Actually 6 or 7, if you count Chavis

Beni

Verdugo

Renfroe

EHern

JD

Moreland

Chavis

 

Nobody counts Chavis. I'm not sure he will even be on the roster come April. And Moreland and JD should never play the OF again...

[moonslav59]

Nobody counts Chavis. I'm not sure he will even be on the roster come April. And Moreland and JD should never play the OF again...

 

Agreed, but the depth is still there.

 

BTW, JD will play OF at NL parks, unless we get the universal DH.

[mvp 78]

I think Beni has more potential to rebound than Renfroe, so I'd tip the balance on the lefty half of that "platoon", which may not even become one.

If the team is as bad as it currently looks, I also predict 100 each for Duran, Downs, and maybe even Casas, by the Fall (no pun intended). That's only about 25 games each.

 

If those 3 all get AB's this year, it means our prospect pipeline is running well. They aren't going to bring those guys up unless the issue is forced (i.e. not win/loss %).

[mvp 78]

Bloom on high end FA...

 

"There’s risks you’re taking on, too, and sometimes there are consequences down the road with that,” he continued. “What you don’t want to be is hamstrung when it really comes time to push some chips in because of some commitments you made earlier. That isn’t, to some degree, the position we’re in now. And look, it worked. All my teammates have rings here because of it. But you’ve got to make sure you’re flexible so you can really take advantage of those great opportunities when it’s really the right time for them.”

 

Spoken in English.....my hand is not good enough to push all my chips in.....I need to see a better hand....

 

So he either thinks the core isn't ready for another run just yet OR he doesn't like what is available on the market right now.

[mvp 78]

Nobody counts Chavis. I'm not sure he will even be on the roster come April. And Moreland and JD should never play the OF again...

 

Agreed on all fronts.

[moonslav59]

So he either thinks the core isn't ready for another run just yet OR he doesn't like what is available on the market right now.

 

Or both or a little bit enough of both to make this choice.