A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

Other than Houck and Dalbec, you don't have any prospects listed. I believe Bloom is considering at least a few as joining the team this year and becoming part of our roster for 2022. If he is thinking that way, it likely would effect how many moves he wants to make before ST. I have been high on Duran for some time and Downs will probably be on the roster before the year is out along with Mata. Why bring in players to block them now?

 

I only listed players who have done something at the ML level in the last few years.

 

This post was not about what might be to come as much as it was about what our current players have already done, recently.

 

If nobody has a career year but just repeats a season like 2018, 2019 or 2020, here's the best we would have:

 

1. Beni .830

2. Verduo .844

3. Bogey .939

4. Devers .916

5. JD M 1.031

6. Dalbec .959

7. Renfroe .805

8. Vazquez .801

9. Hernandez .806

 

Now, I'm not saying everyone can or will repeat their best seasons, all at once, but given teh ages of many of these players, it's not outlandish to think many can or will do just that OR BETTER!

 

What we might get fro Arroyo, Chavis, Downs, Duran, Houck, Seabold and Mata could end up being significant, but I was just focusing on what we know we have.

 

The rotation is certainly more of a long shot, as injuries are a major factor in what happens in 2021, but we can see some very good recent numbers from many of our SP'er.

[dgalehouse]

There is plenty of money to spend. It is just a question of how much of it the owner is willing to spend on the baseball club. There is nothing much we can do about that. I do think that when management says they are not " all in " , many fans will also decide that they are not all in either. The " luxury tax " is the owner's creation. It was not our idea.

[moonslav59]

There's no way of knowing in advance. Maybe we make no more moves, miss the playoffs by one game and look back with regret. Maybe we'll think, gee, we spent over $200 million anyway, maybe we should have spent a little more.

 

If we knew we could just barely make the playoffs by signing Odorizzi, Rosenthal & Pillar or JBJ (maybe going over the line by $15-20M), but are bounced early, would it still be worth it?

 

Assume a reset is planned after 2-4 years going over the limit, and by going over this season, we push forward the reset year by one.

[Nick]

Really, if we don't make the playoffs but win a few more games by going over the CBT first level, is it worth it. I would say no. Leave the spending until we are positioned to make a run.

 

I agree.

 

Look at the Dodgers. On the heels of world championship, they pushed all their chips in to win couple of more by signing Trevor Bauer to a mega, albeit short term deal. They're taking a $34M hit and increased their luxury tax payroll to $238M, $28M over the first threshhold.

 

We have close to $53M on our payroll that's no active. So 25% of our payroll is not in play as we open the season.

 

If we get into the playoffs, I like our chances with the starting pitching rotation headed by Sale.

[Bellhorn04]

If we knew we could just barely make the playoffs by signing Odorizzi, Rosenthal & Pillar or JBJ (maybe going over the line by $15-20M), but are bounced early, would it still be worth it?

 

Assume a reset is planned after 2-4 years going over the limit, and by going over this season, we push forward the reset year by one.

 

We don't know anything LOL

 

Obviously this is all between Henry, Werner and Bloom to decide.

 

I still have a hunch we're going to end up going a little over.

 

The tax issue is also complicated a bit by the fact the CBA expires at the end of this year.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

If we knew we could just barely make the playoffs by signing Odorizzi, Rosenthal & Pillar or JBJ (maybe going over the line by $15-20M), but are bounced early, would it still be worth it?

.

 

Yes. Can't win if you don't get in. Wouldn't it be contradictory to one of the main themes of this board to refuse to try to qualify for the Crapshoot?

 

Getting "bounced early" shouldn't count, either, since that would be in retrospect (and after all, just a product of the Crapshoot). Plus, the best-laid plans have a history of backfiring; otherwise, Vegas and bookies everywhere would have gone out of business long ago.

 

Also, for those convinced Bloom's ingenuity will turn this current roster into a playoff team by next year or maybe even this October, I was a diehard rooter as a kid and adolescent from 1968-1985, watching and listening to the Red Sox... when they made the postseason once in 18 years. Don't forget the '04 champs were Wild Card sharks!

[Bellhorn04]

I was a diehard rooter as a kid and adolescent from 1968-1985, watching and listening to the Red Sox... when they made the postseason once in 18 years.

 

Same here. With today's expanded format both the 1977 and 1978 teams would have made it.

 

The early 80's for Sox fans were days of scorched earth.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

Same here. With today's expanded format both the 1977 and 1978 teams would have made it.

 

The early 80's for Sox fans were days of scorched earth.

 

Losing Fisk, Lynn and Burleson -- for what they got back in return -- was as depressing as two Mookie trades. Those Sox teams still had a lot of star power, but their rise back to respectability was due to the development of young pitching... finally: Hurst, Boyd, Ojeda, Tudor, Nipper and the youngest, Clemens. The latter ace made them an actual contender.

[Kimmi]

The Blue Jays might not be done adding players.

 

If the Yanks are really staying under the tax line, they are done adding.

 

As of now, I give the advantage to the Yankees. But the offseason isn't over yet.

[Kimmi]

The thing that is different about this season and 2013, is that we don't really need any career best seasons from anyone, although we could see Devers, Verdugo, Bogey, Beni and maybe even someone else do just that.

 

We just need enough players to do somewhere near what they have already done in the past 2-3 years (maybe 5-6 years for Richards).

 

It's not a lot to ask or expect.

 

The main issue is the health of Sale, ERod, Eovaldi & Richards.

 

To me, the return to form of JD and Beni are important, but not as much as the health of our rotation.

 

I do not disagree with this.

 

What will likely end up making or breaking us is how healthy our rotation can stay.

[Kimmi]

There's no way of knowing in advance. Maybe we make no more moves, miss the playoffs by one game and look back with regret. Maybe we'll think, gee, we spent over $200 million anyway, maybe we should have spent a little more.

 

If we look to be in the playoff hunt near the deadline, then I'm guessing Henry and Bloom will agree to go over the limit to make some needed additions.

[moonslav59]

Yes. Can't win if you don't get in. Wouldn't it be contradictory to one of the main themes of this board to refuse to try to qualify for the Crapshoot?

 

Getting "bounced early" shouldn't count, either, since that would be in retrospect (and after all, just a product of the Crapshoot). Plus, the best-laid plans have a history of backfiring; otherwise, Vegas and bookies everywhere would have gone out of business long ago.

 

Also, for those convinced Bloom's ingenuity will turn this current roster into a playoff team by next year or maybe even this October, I was a diehard rooter as a kid and adolescent from 1968-1985, watching and listening to the Red Sox... when they made the postseason once in 18 years. Don't forget the '04 champs were Wild Card sharks!

 

I've never believed in the "crap shoot" theory and provided evidence that it is just not true.

 

Any body that thinks this Sox team can win it all in 2021 is smoking something I wish I had.

[moonslav59]

I do not disagree with this.

 

What will likely end up making or breaking us is how healthy our rotation can stay.

 

I can see how someone might think expecting much or even anything from Sale, this year, is wishful thinking, but it's not absurd to expect good seasons from ERod, Eovaldi, Richards and decent seasons from Perez, Pivetta and Houck.

 

Expecting all 6 to be healthy and do well is asking too much, of course, but if 3-4 can do well until Sale comes back, or if 4-5 do well with Sale never coming back, we can easily make the playoffs. I don't expect anything more than that, but our line-up has a chance to make-up for some weak areas.

[moonslav59]

Sox Making Progress on a Deal with Hirokazu Sawamura

 

Looks like it will be a ML deal.

 

Bye-bye out-of-options Brice?

 

[notin]

Sox Making Progress on a Deal with Hirokazu Sawamura

 

Looks like it will be a ML deal.

 

Bye-bye out-of-options Brice?

 

 

Valdez has options. And Springs isn’t needed...

[moonslav59]

Valdez has options. And Springs isn’t needed...

 

Even DFA'ing Springs and starting Valdez in AAA, there may not be room on the 26 man roster for Brice. Pitchers like Houck and Taylor have options, too.

 

Let's say 13 pitchers and Sale starting on the 60 day IL:

 

1. ERod

2. Eovaldi

3. Richards

4. Perez

5. Pivetta

6. Ottavino

7. Barnes

8. Brasier

9. DHern

10. Taylor

11. Andriese (no options)

12. Whitlock (rule 5)

13. Brice or Sawamura

 

Now, chances are someone on this list starts the season on the IL, but we also have Houck, Valdez, Bazardo, Mazza, Seabold & Mata pushing upwards.

[mvp 78]

Even DFA'ing Springs and starting Valdez in AAA, there may not be room on the 26 man roster for Brice. Pitchers like Houck and Taylor have options, too.

 

Let's say 13 pitchers and Sale starting on the 60 day IL:

 

1. ERod

2. Eovaldi

3. Richards

4. Perez

5. Pivetta

6. Ottavino

7. Barnes

8. Brasier

9. DHern

10. Taylor

11. Andriese (no options)

12. Whitlock (rule 5)

13. Brice or Sawamura

 

Now, chances are someone on this list starts the season on the IL, but we also have Houck, Valdez, Bazardo, Mazza, Seabold & Mata pushing upwards.

 

Taylor may start in AAA as well. He didn't pitch all that well lest year.

[Bellhorn04]

Taylor may start in AAA as well. He didn't pitch all that well lest year.

 

He had Covid right?

[mvp 78]

He had Covid right?

 

Yup.

[mvp 78]

Taylor was impacted by COVID. It was also a very small sample size with control issues and abnormal HR/FB and LOB rates.

 

However, he has options and doesn't have a long track record of success at the MLB level.

 

Having him start in WOO for a month isn't the end of the world. These things always sort themselves out. Someone is going to greatly underperform. Someone else is going to get injured. I'd say it's more important to look at your top 16 guys rather than worry about the 13 guy cutoff.

[notin]

Taylor was impacted by COVID. It was also a very small sample size with control issues and abnormal HR/FB and LOB rates.

 

However, he has options and doesn't have a long track record of success at the MLB level.

 

Having him start in WOO for a month isn't the end of the world. These things always sort themselves out. Someone is going to greatly underperform. Someone else is going to get injured. I'd say it's more important to look at your top 16 guys rather than worry about the 13 guy cutoff.

 

.. which is why a DFA of Brice is unlikely. They'll try to keep the depth by demoting someone with options and then to clear a spot, probably DFA the pitcher they feel is most likely to clear waivers, like they did with Hall and Weber...

[mvp 78]

.. which is why a DFA of Brice is unlikely. They'll try to keep the depth by demoting someone with options and then to clear a spot, probably DFA the pitcher they feel is most likely to clear waivers, like they did with Hall and Weber...

 

And if they do DFA Brice, it won't be until the very end of spring training, in hopes that they can sneak him onto the WOO roster.

[moonslav59]

Taylor may start in AAA as well. He didn't pitch all that well lest year.

 

If that's the criteria, we'd have next to nobody left.

[moonslav59]

.. which is why a DFA of Brice is unlikely. They'll try to keep the depth by demoting someone with options and then to clear a spot, probably DFA the pitcher they feel is most likely to clear waivers, like they did with Hall and Weber...

 

Having 3 guys at the end of our pen that are out of options (Andriese & Brice) or rule 5 (Whitlock) force other- maybe better- pitchers from being on the 26 man roster, but as we all know, we'll likely have more than just Sale on the IL to start the season. We may also want to send Houck down for a few weeks to limit his IP and gain an extra year of team control. We may end up sending Whitlock back or trading him, but he seems to be worth keeping around.

 

I'm just no big fan of Brice, but yes, keeping as many options in the system makes the most sense, so he'll likely start the season on the 26 or the IL.

[notin]

Having 3 guys at the end of our pen that are out of options (Andriese & Brice) or rule 5 (Whitlock) force other- maybe better- pitchers from being on the 26 man roster, but as we all know, we'll likely have more than just Sale on the IL to start the season. We may also want to send Houck down for a few weeks to limit his IP and gain an extra year of team control. We may end up sending Whitlock back or trading him, but he seems to be worth keeping around.

 

I'm just no big fan of Brice, but yes, keeping as many options in the system makes the most sense, so he'll likely start the season on the 26 or the IL.

 

Oh I would have 0 issues with Brice being DFA'd. But there is no real advantage to DFAing him just to clear a path for Mazza/Walden/Springs/Weber/Brewer.

 

And if this team ever gets to the point where the biggest question mark on this team is the 8th man in the bullpen, hopefully we will all be a lot more satisfied...

[moonslav59]

Oh I would have 0 issues with Brice being DFA'd. But there is no real advantage to DFAing him just to clear a path for Mazza/Walden/Springs/Weber/Brewer.

 

 

My point was about making room for the Japanese pitcher at #13 NOT for Mazza & Co.

 

1. ERod

2. Eovaldi

3. Richards

4. Perez

5. Pivetta

6. Ottavino

7. Barnes

8. Brasier

9. DHern

10. Taylor

11. Andriese (no options)

12. Whitlock (rule 5)

13. Brice or Sawamura

 

We could have Taylor start in AAA, but Taylor v Brice is different than Mazza v Brice.

[moonslav59]

And if this team ever gets to the point where the biggest question mark on this team is the 8th man in the bullpen, hopefully we will all be a lot more satisfied...

 

Not much else to talk about, at the moment.

[notin]

Not much else to talk about, at the moment.

 

It is fun deciding which piece of excrement gets flushed...

[mvp 78]

Having 3 guys at the end of our pen that are out of options (Andriese & Brice) or rule 5 (Whitlock) force other- maybe better- pitchers from being on the 26 man roster, but as we all know, we'll likely have more than just Sale on the IL to start the season. We may also want to send Houck down for a few weeks to limit his IP and gain an extra year of team control. We may end up sending Whitlock back or trading him, but he seems to be worth keeping around.

 

I'm just no big fan of Brice, but yes, keeping as many options in the system makes the most sense, so he'll likely start the season on the 26 or the IL.

 

Andriese is one of the better options in the pen IMO. Who of value would it force out? Who does keeping Whitlock force out?

 

We're not talking about some behemoth of a roster. Losing some of the lower end guys won't meaningfully impact this season.

[5GoldGlovesOF,75]

It is fun deciding which piece of excrement gets flushed...

 

I'm still trying to figure out how Sox fans are underrating a guy like Renfroe. Even if we dismiss his .158 batting average from the Covid season, he's still a .228 career hitter.