A Realistic View at 2021: Part I

[moonslav59]

Did Moon just really use the phrase "third-highest spending budget team" as a form of praise?

 

I wouldn't call it praise. It's reality, and when a poster complains that we are not spending enough, I chuckle.

 

I guess the term "enough" is relative, but I don't expect us to spend more than anybody. I wouldn't praise us for being the third or the highest spending team.

 

I reality, I'd prefer we win rings without having other fans say, "You bought your rings."

 

If anything, I look down on the notion of being one of the biggest spenders. Will I complain wehn we spend large to get us over the hump and another ring? Hell, no, but I'd prefer we win without being a top 5 spending team.

[moonslav59]

I think Schoop is unlikely, because I think EHern in CF is unlikely. But I also think it is a good idea.

 

If I had to think of players the Sox most likely add, the list includes Moreland, Workman, Romo, Pillar, Miller, and Almora, and the next tier is players like Brian Goodwin, Tyler Naquin, Jake Lamb and maybe Ben Gamel.

 

Obviously I do not expect all of them. 3 at most. But 4 would be ideal if two of them were Workman and Romo.

 

Why should we expect or assume Bloom & Co. do not view EHern in CF as a solid plan?

[notin]

Why should we expect or assume Bloom & Co. do not view EHern in CF as a solid plan?

 

A complete lack of buzz about it anywhere but this forum...

[notin]

Why should we expect or assume Bloom & Co. do not view EHern in CF as a solid plan?

 

Also there is this.

 

"Hernández, who won a World Series with the Dodgers in 2020, will help fill the void the Red Sox have at second base. The Red Sox told Hernández that he will get the bulk of his reps at second base, but he could also see time in center field -- where Boston appears likely to lose Jackie Bradley Jr. in free agency -- and in the corner outfield spots while also spelling Xander Bogaerts here and there at shortstop."

 

Enrique Hernández agrees to deal with Red Sox

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Red Sox got their next Brock Holt in the form of Kiké Hernández, a super-utility player who plays every position but catcher. The Red Sox on Tuesday announced the signing, which was first reported on Jan. 22. A source told MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand that the deal is for two

 

So while he will play some centerfield, he appears to be slated for 2B, probably with Arroyo taking over 2B when he plays CF...

[mvp 78]

Go over it now. Sign Odorizzi and Ozuna and call it an off-season, barring any minor tweaks.

 

Otherwise next year, we will be in the same position...

 

Also, you can go over it now, then deal people away at the deadline for prospects to get back under it if you want.

[mvp 78]

It makes me miss Ben Cherington. You didn't see him warm bodies after a last place finish. And he managed to improve the farm system at the same time.

 

Not everyone BC signed worked out, but at least he did not only look in the basement...

 

I think taking Pablo and Hanley, but not signing Max Scherzer (rotation was Kelly, Buch, Masterson, Miley, Porcello) makes me not miss Ben too much.

[mvp 78]

Also there is this.

 

"Hernández, who won a World Series with the Dodgers in 2020, will help fill the void the Red Sox have at second base. The Red Sox told Hernández that he will get the bulk of his reps at second base, but he could also see time in center field -- where Boston appears likely to lose Jackie Bradley Jr. in free agency -- and in the corner outfield spots while also spelling Xander Bogaerts here and there at shortstop."

 

Enrique Hernández agrees to deal with Red Sox

WWW.MLB.COM

---

The Red Sox got their next Brock Holt in the form of Kiké Hernández, a super-utility player who plays every position but catcher. The Red Sox on Tuesday announced the signing, which was first reported on Jan. 22. A source told MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand that the deal is for two

 

So while he will play some centerfield, he appears to be slated for 2B, probably with Arroyo taking over 2B when he plays CF...

 

I'm sorry, but

 

idle chatter on TalkSox >>> mlb.com stories

[Bellhorn04]

Also, you can go over it now, then deal people away at the deadline for prospects to get back under it if you want.

 

Not if they sign Odorizzi and Ozuna, though. We'd be over by $25-30 mill.

[mvp 78]

Not if they sign Odorizzi and Ozuna, though. We'd be over by $25-30 mill.

 

They may sign Odorizzi (doubt it), but they won't be signing Ozuna. They could sign Odorizzi and get under the cap at the deadline.

[jad]

I wouldn't call it praise. It's reality, and when a poster complains that we are not spending enough, I chuckle.

 

I guess the term "enough" is relative, but I don't expect us to spend more than anybody. I wouldn't praise us for being the third or the highest spending team.

 

I reality, I'd prefer we win rings without having other fans say, "You bought your rings."

 

If anything, I look down on the notion of being one of the biggest spenders. Will I complain wehn we spend large to get us over the hump and another ring? Hell, no, but I'd prefer we win without being a top 5 spending team.

 

Oh. I thought your phrase "third highest spending budget team" distinguished high-spending teams (LAD, NY etc.) from "budget teams" (TBay, KC) etc., and among those, we were third highest. Damn. Might as well move to Milwaukee. Of course, as a fan, I want to see skilled players, whether they win or lose. I don't care what their salaries are. I don't watch sports imagining myself as the GM of a fantasy team.

[moonslav59]

A complete lack of buzz about it anywhere but this forum...

 

Did they ever say he was their 2Bman?

[moonslav59]

Oh. I thought your phrase "third highest spending budget team" distinguished high-spending teams (LAD, NY etc.) from "budget teams" (TBay, KC) etc., and among those, we were third highest. Damn. Might as well move to Milwaukee. Of course, as a fan, I want to see skilled players, whether they win or lose. I don't care what their salaries are. I don't watch sports imagining myself as the GM of a fantasy team.

 

There has been a lot of talk about how very little the Sox have spent in the past 1.5 to 2 years, in terms of new deals and no big deals.

 

I'm just pointing out some needed context.

 

When you are already a top 3 spending team and will still be after the winter moves are made, complaining about not spending enough seems laughable, to me.

[moonslav59]

They may sign Odorizzi (doubt it), but they won't be signing Ozuna. They could sign Odorizzi and get under the cap at the deadline.

 

I'd rather see us sign Schoop & Rosenthal, which I think would allow us to fire sale ourselves back under the tax line, if things go south, but Odorizzi would force a starter to the pen and maybe be even better.

[mvp 78]

There has been a lot of talk about how very little the Sox have spent in the past 1.5 to 2 years, in terms of new deals and no big deals.

 

I'm just pointing out some needed context.

 

When you are already a top 3 spending team and will still be after the winter moves are made, complaining about not spending enough seems laughable, to me.

 

The issue is that we have been told in the past that we were resetting in 2020 so that we could go back above in the future. When will they go back above? That was the carrot they dangled for us holding our noses last year.

 

Remember, it's not our fault that they signed some above market extensions. Henry allowed DD to run roughshod over the budget in 2019 for no added benefit. In 2004-5, the Sox let go of a lot of FA's. They were in the afterglow of a championship and fans understood. This time around, they figured it would be better to just re-sign everyone to bring the 2018 back together for 3 more years or whatever.

[mvp 78]

I'd rather see us sign Schoop & Rosenthal, which I think would allow us to fire sale ourselves back under the tax line, if things go south, but Odorizzi would force a starter to the pen and maybe be even better.

 

Odorizzi makes a lot of sense just because of the question marks surrounding the health of the current starters.

 

I would bet against them signing him though.

[moonslav59]

Odorizzi makes a lot of sense just because of the question marks surrounding the health of the current starters.

 

I would bet against them signing him though.

 

I'd say less than 1% on Odorizzi or Ozuna.

 

Less than 20% on Schoop.

 

Less than 50% on Pillar.

[notin]

Also, you can go over it now, then deal people away at the deadline for prospects to get back under it if you want.

 

Exactly!!

[moonslav59]

The issue is that we have been told in the past that we were resetting in 2020 so that we could go back above in the future. When will they go back above? That was the carrot they dangled for us holding our noses last year.

 

Remember, it's not our fault that they signed some above market extensions. Henry allowed DD to run roughshod over the budget in 2019 for no added benefit. In 2004-5, the Sox let go of a lot of FA's. They were in the afterglow of a championship and fans understood. This time around, they figured it would be better to just re-sign everyone to bring the 2018 back together for 3 more years or whatever.

 

They never said we'd go back to spending over the tax line in 2021, but we all kind of expected it.

 

It's not like we're $20M under the line, though, so if we can't put a decent team on the field as the third highest spending team in MLB, something was wrong with the long term plan a few years back.

 

I think we've already done enough to put a decent team on the field but certainly not a top 3 team- not even top 9 or 10.

We've improved our long term outlook, for sure.

We've set ourselves up to a point where we will be losing some big salary in the next two winter, and much of it is easily replaced when you consider we'll have tens of millions to spend.

 

We would have had to spend like maniacs to be a top contender, this year, so I'm okay with thinking we will go all out next year and be set up for a 3 year window starting in 2022. I'm not sure that is the plan. I'll be more upset, if we don't go over the line, next winter.

 

I'm okay with a longer view. I was hoping we made some big longer term move this winter, but I guess building the farm up can be viewed as "big."

 

Maybe guys like Bauer, Odorizzi and Springer are not the types of players we want to build around. I thought Price was "that type." These three look worse. Now, Odorizzi is not seeking 7 years x $30M either. I tought, and still do, he would fit into a short and long term plan.

[mvp 78]

But for the longer view, at one point would they become buyers during FA period again?

 

Is it wait until 22-23 offseason?

[mvp 78]

If you're punting on 2020, 2021 AND 2022, you may have just as well re-signed Mookie and traded away all the shorter term contracts (JD, Price, et al). You would have gone under the lux tax in 2022 at the very least and managed to retain one of the most marketable stars Boston has ever had. It just shows me that it was about cost savings long term rather than just getting under the lux tax for that one year.

 

"Hey, we're not going to compete until 2023 so we gotta get under the lux tax in 2020 by dealing Mookie."

 

"Couldn't you just re-sign him and get under in 2022? If you're not planning on competing until 2023, it at least gives the fans something to watch."

 

"Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!"

[moonslav59]

There are still some high impact free agents on the market, but very few are linked to a possible Sox signing. Personally, I don't think Bauer is "that guy" you put so much of your budget into adding. (Same with Springer & Realmutto.)

 

Here are the top FAs still available (ranked by MLBTR):

 

1. Bauer

4. Ozuna

(We need a SP'er and OF'er, but that doesn't mean automatically sign the top players at those positions.)

 

11. Odorizzi (Still makes sense, to me, but I seriously doubt we land him.)

14. Turner (We don't need a 3Bman.)

21. JBJ (wants too many years)

22. Paxton (surprise signing, late?)

23. T Walker (see #22)

27. Rosenthal (I doubt we even make an offer.)

46. Porcello (fits the budget but maybe not the need)

47. C Hamels (rather have Porcello)

48. Melancon (would he really be a difference maker?)

 

Honorable mentions of note:

Jonathan Schoop

Kevin Pillar

Brad Miller

Shane Greene

Jake McGee

Brett Gardner

Jonathan Villar

 

 

[moonslav59]

But for the longer view, at one point would they become buyers during FA period again?

 

Is it wait until 22-23 offseason?

 

Most likely, but I think it is not unreasonable to think 2021-2022- maybe not to be the favorite, but in the mix.

[moonslav59]

If you're punting on 2020, 2021 AND 2022, you may have just as well re-signed Mookie and traded away all the shorter term contracts (JD, Price, et al). You would have gone under the lux tax in 2022 at the very least and managed to retain one of the most marketable stars Boston has ever had. It just shows me that it was about cost savings long term rather than just getting under the lux tax for that one year.

 

"Hey, we're not going to compete until 2023 so we gotta get under the lux tax in 2020 by dealing Mookie."

 

"Couldn't you just re-sign him and get under in 2022? If you're not planning on competing until 2023, it at least gives the fans something to watch."

 

"Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!"

 

I was for paying Betts.

 

Maybe the hope was we'd be closer to competing by this winter, but they realized one more year was needed, and by not going over in 2021, we could stay big spenders for one more year after we take the plunge.

 

I do think we go over- maybe way over- next winter, despite losing a ton of contracts.

[harmony]

Perhaps the Red Sox can reunite with center fielder Luis Alexander Basabe, whom the San Francisco Giants have designated for assignment:

 

 

Or not.

[mvp 78]

Most likely, but I think it is not unreasonable to think 2021-2022- maybe not to be the favorite, but in the mix.

 

If they had Betts, they'd be close enough to being in the mix anyway.

[mvp 78]

Perhaps the Red Sox can reunite with center fielder Luis Alexander Basabe, whom the San Francisco Giants have designated for assignment:

 

 

Or not.

 

Is that the better Basabe, or the worse?

[moonslav59]

If they had Betts, they'd be close enough to being in the mix anyway.

 

Depends on what they'd have set the budget at for 2022 and 2023, but I'd have liked our chances more.

[Bellhorn04]

Exactly!!

 

You can't really go too far over and expect to be able to get back under.

 

If you go over by $5 million, you'd have to be able to unload guys with total AAV's of at least $15 million at the deadline to recover the $5 million.

[harmony]

Is that the better Basabe, or the worse?

The slightly better:

 

https://www.soxprospects.com/history.htm

[notin]

You can't really go too far over and expect to be able to get back under.

 

If you go over by $5 million, you'd have to be able to unload guys with total AAV's of at least $15 million at the deadline to recover the $5 million.

 

So.... Eovaldi? Assuming he is not on the IL?